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  • #5,261
  • Feb 22, 2012 5:36pm Feb 22, 2012 5:36pm
Thanks X-Man. Now I have a clearer idea to trade and manage my trade on 4Hrs Swing Trade. Appreciate your help and your sharing!
  • #5,262
  • Feb 22, 2012 6:44pm Feb 22, 2012 6:44pm
Quoting Erebus
Of all the posts lately about entry, exit, pullback candles, system rules, etc, on & on, this one really has me worried!

Why? As X-Man said, "You should try to get your psychological trading in order firstly"

But Hitman is probably asking How do I do that?

First of all a HITMAN has NO emotion attached to his trading, by limiting the risk on each & every trade, whether that is 0.5% or the usual 2% - that is up to YOU.

Once you accept the risk & maximum loss for each trade, place the trade...
Now thats the EREBUS we like .. with these rules below that you mentionned, Good Post .. IMO

Some Mark Douglas quotes to help everyone keep on track.

The 7 Principles of Consistency:

1. I objectively identify my edges.

2. I predefine the risk of every trade.

3. I completely accept the risk or I am willing to let go of the trade.

4. I act on my edges without reservation or hesitation.

5. I pay myself as the market makes money available to me.

6. I continually monitor my susceptibility for making errors.

7. I understand the absolute necessity of these principles of consistent success and, therefore, I never violate them.


The 5 Fundamental Truths of Trading:

1. Anything can happen.

2. You don’t need to know what is going to happen next to make money.

3. There is a random distribution between wins and losses for any given set of variables that define an edge.

4. An edge is nothing more than an indication of a higher probability of one thing happening over another.

5. Every moment in the market is unique.
Don't forget Practice + Patience + Persistence = Profits
  • #5,263
  • Feb 22, 2012 6:56pm Feb 22, 2012 6:56pm
Thursday 23 Feb

EU question:

Why is Euro holding (stronger) despite the USD strength over cable, aussie,kiwi, jpy?

Observations prior to Tokyo open:
- 22 Feb closed an Day Inside Bar. 55pips day range is rare.
- Extreme narrow daily pivot S&R levels today hence make these less useful today. Stick to the Weekly Pivot and its S1,S2 and R1,R2 levels. Note that WP S3 and R3 are rarely reached in ‘normal’ market condition. There is of course some exceptional weeks to the norm.
- 3 days of price contraction , near the 38.0% fib-r of Oct 2011 high to Jan 2012 Low.
- Trading range is very narrow, bounded by 20 Feb low and 21 Feb high.
- Avg 100 weeks is 360pips Avg 10 weeks is 300pips, current week range ranged only about 110pips.
- Price is above WP 1.3175, with a noticeable gap from last Friday' close. Is this a sign showing/telling us something?
- 1.3200 is still visible in sight.

Today’ outlook for intraday,
Trade the DIB breakout both direction. be quick on turnarounds.
Suspect huge buildup of buyer stops below WP. Also recent seller stops above 3320 and 3440
Look out for buyer interest should market test the WP or a low.
A downward reversal typically will see a test and re-test of a price level today, which one?

TDI observations:
- Reading the TDI on H4 chart TF,
- the MBL is between the levels 45 – 55, which I see as the market coming out of a ranging period.
- The RSI PL and TSL are both above the MBL this means to me to stay on the buyers side. But since these are pointing downwards, I need to see a cross upwards to confirm my trade. Buying on dip is good.
- Must back study the market behavior of the volatility bands BB(34) of the TDI. Observe ow price travels within the upper/mid/lower bands.
- On H1 TDI, looks like market is coming out of the ‘squeeze’. After a huge balloon shape last week’s Thursday and Friday, it became a narrow band what looks like an poorly made ugly ‘sausage’ shape.
- You will want to see this inflate into a huge balloon until the next narrowing. Be inside this balloon what the balloon inflation starts.


I am bullish bias technical wise, and also I am holding a long swing position protected at 1.3105.
It is important you know this when I post that I have already formed a bias trading each currency pair everyday/week.

In summary, yesterday was no H1 trade on EU. Got quite close to buy when DAX open, but pullout my pending order on that OB candle.

UJ H4 trade took loss. No chance at all to BE this trade. USD simply push higher.

EG - my breakout to downside did not materialise. So not short trade. The H4 breakout candle at .8400 was too fast to catch. Turnound was slow for me. Managed to catch on a small part of the second H4 candle. Looks like market will head for .8475. Maybe wave 3 or the CD leg will end there and reverse.
Will share these trades after I done my journal for this week.

Good Trading Everyone!
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSD 23 Feb review 23-2-2012 8-18-16 AM.png Size: 98 KB
Honesty is a very expensive gift. You wont find it in cheap people.WBuffett
  • #5,264
  • Feb 22, 2012 8:34pm Feb 22, 2012 8:34pm
Quoting nnpra
Hi Emmanuel,

I have quite a philosophical question to ask you. In my understanding, technical analysis and price action work because they are self-fulfilled by traders who follow them, right? My point is, can we think that EG price action is merely the reflection of how people trade EURUSD and GBPUSD (which are the two most common pairs)??? If it's just a reflection, would any technical analysis valid on its own chart? I'm not saying nobody in the world is looking and try to trade on EG, but the number should be a lot less than the two major ones,...
Hi nnpra,

Dr. Van Tharp is famous for saying, "Traders do not trade the markets; they trade their beliefs about the markets.

I do not have any agreement nor disagreement to your views. I do not think you and I are at the same level here in this business at this time.
My beliefs are my filters to the reality of this forex trading. I must know what my beliefs are. When my beliefs impedes my performance, I need to make the turnaround. I will ask myself what shall I do if I do not hold those beliefs? I take action.

For me, trading and investments are all part of my business. Ultimately, my business performance is all that matters to me. There are KPIs which I set for my business and I work hard to achieve these like all other businessman would do.

How other traders approach the markets, be it technical analysis, fundamental analysis, combination of both, trading naked or with technical indicators, automated trading systems, etc. do not matter to me. No two traders are the same. It is well known that traders trading the same system will produce very different results. Why is this so?

Currency market is intriguing because despite all that are written and published, we do not really know the true answer(s) what move the market in low timeframes like intraday. Trading is both knowledge-based and skill-based activity. Some traders chose systems which trade single currency pair, others trade basket of currency pairs, yet some trade correlation systems and others will trade composite currency systems, and so on.


I recommend reading Dr. Tharp’s books,
- Super Trader,
-Trade Your Way to Financial Freedom
There are lots of information in these books which you can learn and use to build a foundation for your own trading system.

Kind regards,
Honesty is a very expensive gift. You wont find it in cheap people.WBuffett
  • #5,265
  • Feb 22, 2012 9:31pm Feb 22, 2012 9:31pm
Thank you for you advise. Lesson learnt. Tq. Hope to learn more from you and everyone here.

Quoting X-Man
From what i see is that you went short after the TDI cross.
If you look at PA there is a small tiny little red candle.
Its really weak.
If you try to trade every cross on TDI then you will get killed in a ranging market.
First we want to see momentum in PA , then we confirm the TDI cross
There was not downward momentum at all.
  • #5,266
  • Edited 10:52pm Feb 22, 2012 10:45pm | Edited 10:52pm
Im new about learning forex, but i complete the baby pips school and now im trying to demo to test this method. but i have few question about this method.

first, by using Swing trade method, you only give a good entry point, and exit after 100-200 pips right?

two, is my thinking process is right at this chart,

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 4hour chart.png Size: 55 KB


At point A, Even green touch the blue band, im not suppose to go for short because PA havent touch the daily channel yet. And it is against the trend.

At point B, im not suppose to go for long. Even PA is going with the trend, and green line touch the blue band, but it havent touch the daily channel.
and we are looking for A+ set up, so i pass this one.

At point C, i also not suppose to enter because, it is against the current trend.

I should enter when .
1.PA is bounce at daily channel
2. green line touch the blue band then later cross the red line.
3. PA is going with trend.

i exit when i reach 100 - 200 pips (personal preference right?)

hope the pro can help, thank you for this awesome method
  • #5,267
  • Feb 22, 2012 11:13pm Feb 22, 2012 11:13pm
Quoting Chriswill57
Thank you for you advise. Lesson learnt. Tq. Hope to learn more from you and everyone here.
I smell something bad in this market...
  • #5,268
  • Feb 23, 2012 12:00am Feb 23, 2012 12:00am
Quoting Phx62
Pullback candles have been discussed in this thread a couple of times but you will have to search for those posts......
hello Phx62. i already search before i post. i found a few with image that explain them. it is just that i cant differentiate between pullback candle with a reverse candle ( in pdf said that, if prev bar bullish, the candle will perform hi then close below open. the same as if prev bar bearish, the candle will perform low then close above the open.) . i saw one at the LO yesterday. but it seems i wrong . x-man said it was just a normal candle. i follow the rules for pullback candle. all match. but unfortunately its not always like that.
  • #5,269
  • Feb 23, 2012 1:02am Feb 23, 2012 1:02am
Now is GMT0700 :

For practice to identify pullback and reversal setups, you should now look at H4 charts for EU,AU,GU and NU pairs.

This H4 candle still have another hour before it actually close.
Honesty is a very expensive gift. You wont find it in cheap people.WBuffett
  • #5,270
  • Feb 23, 2012 1:02am Feb 23, 2012 1:02am
1.3292 is key resistance... If breaks could have another nice run to the upside
  • #5,271
  • Feb 23, 2012 1:19am Feb 23, 2012 1:19am
Quoting Phx62
Pullback candles have been discussed in this thread a couple of times but you will have to search for those posts......
I agree and will not explain pullback candles.
I think if you look there are more than 100 posts in this thread on the pullback candles.
If still traders dont understand this concept then i would say reseach pin bars and thats how you will understand more on how it works
X-man the legendary conqueror of markets
  • #5,272
  • Feb 23, 2012 1:25am Feb 23, 2012 1:25am
Quoting capab
Im new about learning forex, but i complete the baby pips school and now im trying to demo to test this method. but i have few question about this method.

first, by using Swing trade method, you only give a good entry point, and exit after 100-200 pips right?

two, is my thinking process is right at this chart,

Attachment

At point A, Even green touch the blue band, im not suppose to go for short because PA havent touch the daily channel yet. And it is against the trend.

At point B, im not suppose to go for long. Even PA...
You could enter at B when the vertical line was a few candles later. PA touched the 200 ema and a long is with the trend. Red changed to blue and at that point the green crossed the red. At the current line you posted there isn't a TDI cross.
  • #5,273
  • Feb 23, 2012 1:25am Feb 23, 2012 1:25am
Quoting capab
Im new about learning forex, but i complete the baby pips school and now im trying to demo to test this method. but i have few question about this method.

first, by using Swing trade method, you only give a good entry point, and exit after 100-200 pips right?

two, is my thinking process is right at this chart,

Attachment

At point A, Even green touch the blue band, im not suppose to go for short because PA havent touch the daily channel yet. And it is against the trend.

At point B, im not suppose to go for long. Even PA is going...
Points A and C are trades agaisnt the trend.
Im not saying that you cant trade those, you can but its riskier.

Point B is with the trend which is a good trede.

You have marked areas where TDI touched the blue band but as you can see there is no candle colour change yet at those areas.
If you look at few candles beyond your makings you will notice that the candles started changing colour and starts going in the direction you favor.

A , B and C would all be successful trades in this case. But notice that if you go against the trend the candles with change few times before going in your direction
X-man the legendary conqueror of markets
  • #5,274
  • Feb 23, 2012 1:35am Feb 23, 2012 1:35am
What you put in to your trading you will get back....

I see alot of people asking very basic question which if you read through the hole thread and do as x-man says and backtest, you will start to see the pullback candles and also other pattens on the chart to help you with your edge.....

X-man and other great trader on the thread stress that you must spend the time backtesting this system and this will help you develop as a great trader.....

The more time you put in the better results you will find you will get!!!

Good luck
  • #5,275
  • Feb 23, 2012 1:48am Feb 23, 2012 1:48am
Quoting josh11
What you put in to your trading you will get back....

I see alot of people asking very basic question which if you read through the hole thread and do as x-man says and backtest, you will start to see the pullback candles and also other pattens on the chart to help you with your edge.....

X-man and other great trader on the thread stress that you must spend the time backtesting this system and this will help you develop as a great trader.....

The more time you put in the better results you will find you will get!!!

Good luck

I am a newbie trading SSS. I have read through the whole thread and some important ones several times. I have to say that X-Man (and many others) has been very patient in explaining and explaining and explaining the same system rules over and over again. From my experience, this is not a waste of time as some of us need to hear it a few times. And for those who raised the questions, maybe they need validation from the expert of what they have done right/wrong. But most certainly agree that the onus is on newbies to read the whole thread (preferably more than once), backtest and then practise trading. Hopefully we are not constraint to ask silly questions . Thank you so much for accommodating the slower learners.
  • #5,276
  • Feb 23, 2012 1:49am Feb 23, 2012 1:49am
X man

where is the post on the template for the H4 method, sorry i lost the post number.
  • #5,277
  • Feb 23, 2012 1:53am Feb 23, 2012 1:53am
Quoting marcoxq
X man

where is the post on the template for the H4 method, sorry i lost the post number.
Page 342,Post 5118
  • #5,278
  • Feb 23, 2012 1:56am Feb 23, 2012 1:56am
Quoting josh11
Page 342,Post 5118

Thank you S3 brother JOSH!
  • #5,279
  • Feb 23, 2012 1:57am Feb 23, 2012 1:57am
Quoting marcoxq
Thank you S3 brother JOSH!
Anytime
  • #5,280
  • Feb 23, 2012 2:02am Feb 23, 2012 2:02am
i use it likes filtering signal
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