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AUD/USD

  • #40,921
  • Feb 22, 2012 5:09pm Feb 22, 2012 5:09pm
Leadership spill on Monday.
  • #40,922
  • Feb 22, 2012 6:10pm Feb 22, 2012 6:10pm
Technically, the AUD has a much better chance of reaching the 1.04's than the 1.08's. All the trendlines have been broken from the Daily thru H1 charts, the H4 and H1 charts now have established downtrends developing and 1.0770 area has failed 4 times to break and hold above. Fundamentally, anything can happen, but looks like a very tough road to the north in the short term. I have been selling touches to the trendline going down to 1.0450 area.
  • #40,923
  • Feb 22, 2012 6:12pm Feb 22, 2012 6:12pm
you may have seen a short term bottom at 0610 could go either way but if you want long id do it here with a stop under 0610.
A lot of sideways action after a period of down trend, with the down trend breaking...
on the other hands bears might roll in once they realize bulls can't get pass 0650

(from a guy who has big shorts @ 1.08 for over a week.)
  • #40,924
  • Feb 22, 2012 6:26pm Feb 22, 2012 6:26pm
Quoting George Adams
Technically, the AUD has a much better chance of reaching the 1.04's than the 1.08's. All the trendlines have been broken from the Daily thru H1 charts, the H4 and H1 charts now have established downtrends developing and 1.0770 area has failed 4 times to break and hold above. Fundamentally, anything can happen, but looks like a very tough road to the north in the short term. I have been selling touches to the trendline going down to 1.0450 area.
i agree however we haven't seen a clear break of 0650 and 0650 a important number that's been support for the past 2 weeks. Making me nervous i don't want any range bound crap like we saw last week. I also see 0600 being bought quickly on dips twice now.

Maybe its just me and it takes time to grind down these bulls.
  • #40,925
  • Feb 22, 2012 6:30pm Feb 22, 2012 6:30pm
I will be interesting. Either the trendline or 1.06 is going to give way here very shortly. If the trendline gives way, then I am going to exit the shorts and look for the long entry, probably off the backside of the broken trendline on a re-test.
  • #40,926
  • Feb 22, 2012 6:36pm Feb 22, 2012 6:36pm
its making a move down as i type this guess Asia pushing . I'd be surprise if 0600 holds, if it breaks man we going down baby. and about freakn time
  • #40,927
  • Feb 22, 2012 6:48pm Feb 22, 2012 6:48pm
Quoting lasty;
AUD/USD @ 1.0636

Y O U R S ..
Y O U R S ..
Y O U R S ..
Y O U R S..
Y O U R S
Y O U R S
Y O U R S
Y O U R S
Y O U R S ..
TP

Political shit storm in Australia with PM being challenged..
German Bonds bought in Europe as growth stalls.

One more thing .. did I say Y O U R S ? Yup and that too.

Have a great Y O U R S ing day
patience always the key...
  • #40,928
  • Feb 22, 2012 7:09pm Feb 22, 2012 7:09pm
Quoting aqeelaputra;
1.05 > 1.04 extreme level 1.02
  • #40,929
  • Feb 22, 2012 7:16pm Feb 22, 2012 7:16pm
Quoting aqeelaputra
patience always the key...
How much patience to get back to 1.0804?
100 Pips per day can keep the bosses away.
  • #40,930
  • Feb 22, 2012 7:36pm Feb 22, 2012 7:36pm
Quoting e585009;
How much patience to get back to 1.0804?
..depend how much you have your patience..we just waiting to see what reaction "if" the price touches the 1.05 to 1.04 "if" no reaction and sideways there are two possible, prices will continue down 1.02 or back to up again
  • #40,931
  • Feb 22, 2012 7:40pm Feb 22, 2012 7:40pm
Quoting e585009
How much patience to get back to 1.0804?
if this goes down more, id say about 2 months ish worth, who knows tho.
  • #40,932
  • Edited 7:48pm Feb 22, 2012 7:47pm | Edited 7:48pm
Not understanding why the US dollar is so much stronger than the A$. Or is it that the A$ is just drinking a VAT of wimp juice right now? I thought the AUD moved with Gold and DOW Jones Industrial Avg. I need my pips man!!!!!
100 Pips per day can keep the bosses away.
  • #40,933
  • Feb 22, 2012 8:42pm Feb 22, 2012 8:42pm
It is hard to get up bright and early in the morning and ride the bulls, when you have been out partying with the crows, 3 nights in a row. http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon10.gif
  • #40,934
  • Feb 22, 2012 8:51pm Feb 22, 2012 8:51pm
I doubt that politics play a major part, it's probably just the aud is perceived as being too high at 1.08, and anyways it's definitely not healthy to have an overwhelming currency as it will sap your exports.

Yet, I still can't help but feel with the USD having zero interest for 3 years and QE 3 coming cant beat slowing China (though PMI did recover a little) and Europe.
  • #40,935
  • Feb 22, 2012 8:52pm Feb 22, 2012 8:52pm
Wimp Juice.

It will come back up.

Quoting e585009
Not understanding why the US dollar is so much stronger than the A$. Or is it that the A$ is just drinking a VAT of wimp juice right now? I thought the AUD moved with Gold and DOW Jones Industrial Avg. I need my pips man!!!!!
XAU-XAG/USD_Gold n Silver Trader's Thread = Technicals, Fundamentals & News
  • #40,936
  • Feb 22, 2012 9:30pm Feb 22, 2012 9:30pm
If anyone out there uses pivots....I find the daily pivot point calculation done at 5 est has great predictive value for what lies ahead in the coming day.
The aud has closed below its daily pivot for over a week every day. And every day it bounces back up to the pivot before heading back down. I'm short at today's pivot of 1.064 taking profit at an even 1.06 for the short term until I see what the next day brings.
Anyone else use this technique? Works pretty good on cable too.
  • #40,937
  • Feb 22, 2012 9:32pm Feb 22, 2012 9:32pm
Quoting XTrade
Wimp Juice.

It will come back up.
Clearly, this wimp juice is potent stuff. Anyway, what's up with EUR/AUD? Surely the Gillard/Rudd political head-butting can't be that scary to make the AUD drop against the wimpy Euro. China can't be doing that badly.
  • #40,938
  • Feb 22, 2012 9:36pm Feb 22, 2012 9:36pm
Quoting jerrycollie
Thanks RustyRam, Setting my pending long at 1.047. Don't you just love these down trends?...A new buying oportunity every day! http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon7.gif
Be cautious at 1.0470, the bounce will be wave 4 of the down move, it might not get above .10620, . then it will head back to 1.0400 level.

The down move will be completed, only when the price reaches 1.0400

That is a good place to for a long.
PPP - Patience Pays PIPS
  • #40,939
  • Feb 22, 2012 9:40pm Feb 22, 2012 9:40pm
Quoting rustyram
Be cautious at 1.0470, the bounce will be wave 4 of the down move, it might not get above .10620, . then it will head back to 1.0400 level.

The down move will be completed, only when the price reaches 1.0400

That is a good place to for a long.
where do you think is a good place to short today? 1.068 or 1.07?
  • #40,940
  • Feb 22, 2012 9:41pm Feb 22, 2012 9:41pm
[quote=jjmuggs;If anyone out there uses pivots....I find the daily pivot point calculation done at 5 est has great predictive value for what lies ahead in the coming day.
The aud has closed below its daily pivot for over a week every day. And every day it bounces back up to the pivot before heading back down. I'm short at today's pivot of 1.064 taking profit at an even 1.06 for the short term until I see what the next day brings.
Anyone else use this technique? Works pretty good on cable too.[/quote]

pivot is more simple but accurate
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