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Price Action and Trading Discussion

  • #1,001
  • Feb 21, 2012 3:23am Feb 21, 2012 3:23am
Quoting N_Trader
Thanks, DW.

You are spot on on the 0.8400 ish level.. I try to go with D1 trend until it show signs of reversal. Keeping my fingers crossed on this one.

The market will show in a couple of hours or maybe sooner...

Anything you are looking at today?

regards
Nothing really on the horizon as yet for me. I still have the USDCAD daily short in play but that is not going anywhere at the moment.

GBPJPY daily did not eventuate into anything.

Will be keeping an eye on CADJPY, EURNZD, USDJPY, NZDJPY all on daily to see how they close today. AUDUSD be interesting to see where it heads from here sitting right on the channgel but currently in a bit of a congested area.
Twitter - DarkWolF@OzForexTrader - Facebook Page - link in post 1
  • #1,002
  • Feb 21, 2012 4:16am Feb 21, 2012 4:16am
I was stopped out.

Lesson learnt: Never trade into a wall. No prediction in the market.

Quoting N_Trader
Failure at 0.8400 seen on 15M... let's see where it goes from here.

Attachment
  • #1,003
  • Feb 21, 2012 4:57am Feb 21, 2012 4:57am
Quoting N_Trader
I was stopped out.

Lesson learnt: Never trade into a wall. No prediction in the market.
Indeed. I may very well have that same problem with my USDCAD trade. Stalling right on the RN area.
Twitter - DarkWolF@OzForexTrader - Facebook Page - link in post 1
  • #1,004
  • Feb 21, 2012 7:21am Feb 21, 2012 7:21am
EU 5 min chart.

The exact same lines that I had on the chart yesterday as I have not moved any.

Yet again, you can clearly see how price reacts around these areas.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 1.jpg Size: 84 KB
Twitter - DarkWolF@OzForexTrader - Facebook Page - link in post 1
  • #1,005
  • Feb 21, 2012 7:30am Feb 21, 2012 7:30am
Quoting DarkWolF
EU 5 min chart.

The exact same lines that I had on the chart yesterday as I have not moved any.

Yet again, you can clearly see how price reacts around these areas.
  • #1,006
  • Feb 21, 2012 11:47pm Feb 21, 2012 11:47pm
Reversal setup on A/U forming at the bottom of the range...

http://content.screencast.com/users/...2-23.47.28.png
  • #1,007
  • Feb 21, 2012 11:51pm Feb 21, 2012 11:51pm
We already have a nice break and continuation of the trend line on the M15, however I'm going to be a little bit more patient with this setup and wait for buyers to show me that they can take out the short stops sitting above the higher green line.

http://content.screencast.com/users/...2-23.48.59.png
  • #1,008
  • Feb 22, 2012 12:14am Feb 22, 2012 12:14am
while the bulls and bears duke it out lets look at possible targets...
It seems like every time price comes down to this level it runs to roughly the 1.0770 level before putting in a near term top, that gives us about 100 pips of upside room.

http://content.screencast.com/users/...2-00.00.35.png

I generally like to take 3:1 reward to risk ratio trades. So that would mean roughly 30-35 pips on the stop loss. Moving to a 5min chart, I will try and locate a level that the market has used as support in the past and then place my stop behind the nearest swing point...


http://content.screencast.com/users/...2-00.07.36.png


In terms of risk per trade I usually look to risk 0.5% of the account for any given trade. That way you are never letting just one trade make or break you.

Anyways, now that that's sorted out... back to the waiting game

Oh ya... any feedback would be great. My win rate is not as good as DW so any tips or advice on how to refine the process or analysis to make it better would be awesome!
  • #1,009
  • Feb 22, 2012 12:52am Feb 22, 2012 12:52am
A quick news check shows that nothing is coming up any time soon...

http://content.screencast.com/users/...2-00.48.17.png

and with that we can look to enter the trade since A/U has closed above our reference level.

http://content.screencast.com/users/...2-00.50.52.png

At this point there isnt too much more to do except come back later and see the outcome...
  • #1,010
  • Feb 22, 2012 1:22am Feb 22, 2012 1:22am
yep - im in this one...


Quoting mugged
A quick news check shows that nothing is coming up any time soon...

http://content.screencast.com/users/...2-00.48.17.png

and with that we can look to enter the trade since A/U has closed above our reference level.

http://content.screencast.com/users/...2-00.50.52.png

At this point there isnt too much more to do except come back later and see the outcome...
  • #1,011
  • Feb 22, 2012 5:24am Feb 22, 2012 5:24am
My 5 min levels on EU for today ... solid lines drawn from 1hr, dashed line drawn from 15m

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 22-02-2012 11-23-45.jpg Size: 49 KB
  • #1,012
  • Feb 22, 2012 6:25am Feb 22, 2012 6:25am
DW, when you get a spare min could you post up your levels for today please ?

Cheers
Dan
  • #1,013
  • Feb 22, 2012 6:27am Feb 22, 2012 6:27am
Hi guys,

Only just getting a look at the charts for the first time today as have been a bit busy.
Twitter - DarkWolF@OzForexTrader - Facebook Page - link in post 1
  • #1,014
  • Feb 22, 2012 6:30am Feb 22, 2012 6:30am
Quoting dan89
DW, when you get a spare min could you post up your levels for today please ?

Cheers
Dan
Hi Dan,

I was just looking at the levels that you put on and they are pretty spot on mate

Been a bit sideways by the looks today doesnt look like much has been on offer unless you were looking at the tighter range and trading that.
Twitter - DarkWolF@OzForexTrader - Facebook Page - link in post 1
  • #1,015
  • Feb 22, 2012 6:36am Feb 22, 2012 6:36am
Quoting DarkWolF
Hi Dan,

I was just looking at the levels that you put on and they are pretty spot on mate

Been a bit sideways by the looks today doesnt look like much has been on offer unless you were looking at the tighter range and trading that.
I think im starting to get the hang of these levels. Using the line chart makes a massive difference
  • #1,016
  • Feb 22, 2012 6:41am Feb 22, 2012 6:41am
Quoting dan89
I think im starting to get the hang of these levels. Using the line chart makes a massive difference
Twitter - DarkWolF@OzForexTrader - Facebook Page - link in post 1
  • #1,017
  • Feb 22, 2012 6:50am Feb 22, 2012 6:50am
Quoting mugged
Reversal setup on A/U forming at the bottom of the range...
Some nice clean charts and good analysis there on AUD Mugged.

You must have a slightly different feed to me as chart is slightly different.

Attached is some of my analysis of A/U.

Daily channel was what I have been keeping an eye on and was looking for something to potentially be on offer from the base but did not happen.

On the 4 hourly view you can see price retest the base of the channel.

And on the next chart a longer term look back to the left you can see the previous sideways levels potentially coming into play again.

If does fall into a sideways move again then it could be at the lower end of of that now.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: aud1.jpg Size: 151 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: aud2.jpg Size: 118 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: aud3.jpg Size: 171 KB
Twitter - DarkWolF@OzForexTrader - Facebook Page - link in post 1
  • #1,018
  • Feb 22, 2012 7:03am Feb 22, 2012 7:03am
Quoting mugged
We already have a nice break and continuation of the trend line on the M15, however I'm going to be a little bit more patient with this setup and wait for buyers to show me that they can take out the short stops sitting above the higher green line.
AU 15 min chart attached.

The one thing I try not to do is get too carried away with R:R.

In my opinion I find it better to use the key "areas" as targets to either TP or at the very least have a BE entered if you want to push for more.

If the R:R you are looking for lines up with a key area or measured move from a pattern then all is good. The one thing I think to be careful of is if your R:R target puts it in no mans land where there is no logical or technical reason for it.

I also find in those times when I attempt to push more out of the trade it will reverse and stop me out or usually hits my BE. Every now and then it pays off and can end getting more out of the position.

Again, I know its much easier to analyse in the chart in hindsight. Trading it live its much harder to make the decision.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: au 15 min.jpg Size: 108 KB
Twitter - DarkWolF@OzForexTrader - Facebook Page - link in post 1
  • #1,019
  • Feb 22, 2012 7:15am Feb 22, 2012 7:15am
GBPJPY daily short is in play at the moment.

Moved against me today but now moved slightly back down again.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GJ Daily.jpg Size: 141 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPJPY Daily.jpg Size: 170 KB
Twitter - DarkWolF@OzForexTrader - Facebook Page - link in post 1
  • #1,020
  • Feb 22, 2012 7:29am Feb 22, 2012 7:29am
USDCAD short not looking so good, moving against me and halfway to the stop about now.
Twitter - DarkWolF@OzForexTrader - Facebook Page - link in post 1
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