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  • #4,741
  • Feb 16, 2012 5:31am Feb 16, 2012 5:31am
Quote
I'm sure dcginc will have some idea whether that's worthwhile to look into or not ...


You are correct sir!

Volumes, COT (Commitment of Traders), Pre-market futures, etc., can provide hints as to market sentiment, but until that sentiment is realized in price, any pre-conceived notions will add hesitation to your trade plan execution.

Speaking from experience, I cannot tell you how many times I have researched ad-nauseum every fundamental I could prior to placing a trade, or waiting to place a trade, and have been totally wrong. I could cite example after example, but won’t waste your time. That is what led me to the conclusion that price is king and technicals work best – at least for me. That, and emotional control, is when I started to make real and consistent money.

There is such a thing as too much information. All I need is enough information and I can get that from my charts alone.

I am not suggesting that we be ignorant of fundamentals, but they really don’t matter until their impact is absorbed and realized in price.

All the best.

dcginc
  • #4,742
  • Feb 16, 2012 5:45am Feb 16, 2012 5:45am
Quoting dcginc


You are correct sir!

Volumes, COT (Commitment of Traders), Pre-market futures, etc., can provide hints as to market sentiment, but until that sentiment is realized in price, any pre-conceived notions will add hesitation to your trade plan execution.

[size=3][font=Calibri]Speaking from experience, I cannot tell you how many...
Well said!! Also with the COT you have to remember that this includes hedge funds... PA for me is king, I do not try to predict where the market is going I just let the price tell me.... If someone asked me where do I think the market will go 2mro, next week, next month I will tell them I don't know!! I trade day by day and let the market show me where its goin
  • #4,743
  • Feb 16, 2012 5:50am Feb 16, 2012 5:50am
Quoting dcginc


You are correct sir!

... That is what led me to the conclusion that price is king and technicals work best – at least for me. That, and emotional control, is when I started to make real and consistent money.[/font][/size]
Thanks for the feedback!

You know the funny thing is, these threads that claim to know the "i've been sent death threats so I can't really tell you" secrets of the market talk about win rates of like 70 - 80% ... something that the likes of yourself, X, Phx etc are achieving perfectly fine just on PA.
1 pip at a time ... if the entries are strong, the rest will follow ...
  • #4,744
  • Feb 16, 2012 6:01am Feb 16, 2012 6:01am
Quoting dcginc
You are correct sir!

Volumes, COT (Commitment of Traders), Pre-market futures, etc., can provide hints as to market sentiment, but until that sentiment is realized in price, any pre-conceived notions will add hesitation to your trade plan execution.

[size=3][font=Calibri]Speaking from experience, I cannot tell you how many times I have researched ad-nauseum every fundamental I could prior to placing a trade, or waiting to place a trade, and have been totally wrong. I could...
Hi dcginc

I always appreciate your comments and generally agree about what you say about charts and also about COT. However of late it was COT that kept me out of hoardes of failed counter trend buys. It was COT that confirmed the sell opp's early this week and be happy move down will have pace. OK yes perhaps a stall on eur D plus divergence (at least on rsi) were other good solid clues, but the big boys with record (or close to) eur shorts had to be good additional info.

For what its worth Mrs V definitely told not to take weak counter trend candles pre/early US session, we do not believe the odds are favourable. So even if it does go up from here couldn't give 2 hoots.

There would be a difference if there was a strong candle (big lower wick/engulfing close) or if we were in uptrend, but not the last few hours weak rubbish.
  • #4,745
  • Feb 16, 2012 6:21am Feb 16, 2012 6:21am
Quoting prftablefool
Below is the another trade which I am in. I took the first lot when price got rejected at 1.0775 and opened another lot when price aligned with Fib 61.8 and TL. Not sure if it is going to hit my TP but nonetheless I have deducted the cost of appetizer and meal from my account balance anyways.
TP hit with 163 pips (cumulative).

Don't see a valid set up as of now so probably done for the day.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: audusd.gif Size: 25 KB
Forex is boring but profitable with patience and discipline
  • #4,746
  • Edited 8:17am Feb 16, 2012 6:26am | Edited 8:17am
Vantage
Quote
However of late it was COT that kept me out of hoardes of failed counter trend buys. It was COT that confirmed the sell opp's early this week and be happy move down will have pace. OK yes perhaps a stall on eur D plus divergence (at least on rsi) were other good solid clues, but the big boys with record (or close to) eur shorts had to be good additional info.

All true and agreed. Last week, I actually thought the EUR might rally to 3500-3600 (I did some ratio analysis on my blog) and was incorrect (it won't be the first time), but COT clearly confirmed the down side sentiment. The EU/Greece uncertainty also played well confirming strength for the Bears. COT confirmed the possibility of what I had all ready observed on my higher time frame charts for this week. I checked COT after looking at my technicals and stayed with the sell off, taking only very conservative targets on counter trend longs. I however, took no trades until my trade plan technicals provided valid signals, and that is the point I am attempting to emphasize.

My commentary is primarily focused on traders less experienced than you and I. I always find in interesting that newer traders get caught up in fundametals without first having a complete grasp on consistency of system execution. . . seems to be the "cart before the horse" syndrome. I try to steer them away from the more nuanced elements until that aspect has been mastered.

I always welcome commentary from other successful traders and find your insight valuable as well.

Thanks.

dcginc
  • #4,747
  • Feb 16, 2012 6:31am Feb 16, 2012 6:31am
Quoting Cun
Hi X-Man,

I recalled reading a post in the TMS thread on a scheme whereby you double the number of lots everytime you reach something like 1000 pips. Are you following this scheme? Thanks.

No im not following that scheme.
I will only increase my lot size if it allows me to only risk 3% and below of my capital per trade.

Currently I am allowed to trade 2 to 3 standard lots which i will start in the month of march.
X-man the legendary conqueror of markets
  • #4,748
  • Feb 16, 2012 6:34am Feb 16, 2012 6:34am
Quoting arramiss78
Hi X-Man,

I have entered base on Pullback of the Blue candle before LO and Enter during the vertical line of LO.. I open position when price went down around 10pips ..

Entry base on Pullback (Blue Candle) and Crossing of TDI... but it hit my SL at -23pips... (just slightly below previous candle).

Am i missing anything? Appreciate your comment..

Thanks..
You entered too early, from my experience the candle just before the LO is a fakey so i would probably wait until that candle forms or enter few pips above the previous candles high if i wanted to go long
X-man the legendary conqueror of markets
  • #4,749
  • Feb 16, 2012 6:36am Feb 16, 2012 6:36am
Quoting marcoxq

Now i am only looking for shorts on EU, that pullback candle u said might just be X man cashing out his 100+ pips from yesterday short.
X-man the legendary conqueror of markets
  • #4,750
  • Feb 16, 2012 6:40am Feb 16, 2012 6:40am
hi guys,Do you guys only trade EU , or do you all trade other pairs also,and when do you all move your SL to BE.

Shaik
NEVER go against the Daily trend
  • #4,751
  • Feb 16, 2012 6:59am Feb 16, 2012 6:59am
Quoting shaikjun
hi guys,Do you guys only trade EU , or do you all trade other pairs also,and when do you all move your SL to BE.

Shaik
You can trade any pair using this 1H system.
good pairs are G/U , A/U , E/J , G/J , USD/CHF , E/A , USD/CAD.

I would recommend that you only trade other pairs when you can trade the E/U like PHX62. LOL im joking PHX62 is in his own league no one can beat that guy.
But seriously i would say look at other pairs when you getting a constant win rate of 70% to 80% .

I would rather stick to E/U on the 1H and get my pips from there. It gives me more than enough pips per month and by concentrating on 1 pair your success rate is much higher.

There were lots of posts by phx62 regarding moving SL to BE after 30 to 40 pips.
X-man the legendary conqueror of markets
  • #4,752
  • Feb 16, 2012 7:11am Feb 16, 2012 7:11am
Quoting X-Man
[color=Blue][size=3]You can trade any pair using this 1H system.
good pairs are G/U , A/U , E/J , G/J , USD/CHF , E/A , USD/CAD.

I would recommend that you only trade other pairs when you can trade the E/U like PHX62. LOL im joking PHX62 is in his own league no one can beat that guy.
But seriously i would say look at other pairs when you getting a constant win rate of 70% to 80% .

I would rather stick to E/U on the 1H and get my pips from there. It gives me more than enough pips per month and by concentrating on 1 pair your success rate is much...
thanks Mr X
NEVER go against the Daily trend
  • #4,753
  • Feb 16, 2012 7:11am Feb 16, 2012 7:11am
Shorted GU at 1.56575.

T/P 1.56420
S/L 1.56790

DEMO! GOGO!
  • #4,754
  • Edited 8:10am Feb 16, 2012 7:31am | Edited 8:10am
In backtesting, I see a lot of days last year like today. basically price is not really moving. If I went for a counter trend log that would have failed even though TDI crossed. Going short doesnt seem like it would have been worthwhile. Emmanuel talked about a base forming for confirmarion to go long.

Only stayed out today because of a gut feeling, but that has been wrong so many times. Something needs to clue me in that it may be bad to enter (i just dont see it yet)

Also in post 4701 I mentioned that if asia is moving then london might chop around. So the opportunity to enter might have been in asia. But asia tends not to move that much normally. It stays around 40 pips. Something should clue us in that might move.

There are aton of charts I can post that is like today, but dont want to clog the thread. Want to improve my observation. I know the more experienced people knew not to enter today or at least sit out. I didnt, but I want to get better at detecting these things. Dcginc seems to be really knowledgeable at this. Vantage had some good suggestions as well, but i think it may be too deep for me now with the COT.
  • #4,755
  • Feb 16, 2012 7:53am Feb 16, 2012 7:53am
Damn, I've tilted today.

If I can somehow argue that the long from the morning was acceptable, the impulsive short following it definetely wasnt.

As long as I learn something from it...
Thoughts are things
  • #4,756
  • Feb 16, 2012 8:10am Feb 16, 2012 8:10am
Quoting hale-mary
In backtesting, I see a lot of days last year like today. basically price is not really moving. If I went for a counter trend log that would have failed even though TDI crossed. Going short doesnt seem like it would have been worthwhile. Emmanuel talked about a base forming for confirmarion to go long.

Only stayed out today because of a gut feeling, but that has been wrong so many times. Something needs to clue me in that it may be bad to enter (i just dont see it yet)

Also in post 4701 I mentioned that if asia is moving then london might chop...
You've had several really good days down this week so a pause, retrace up has to be expected at some point. The question always has to be do you take them as a higher risk or let run and look for sell rally chance?

One of the problems with back testing is you don't remember the market sentiment at the time i.e. the equivalent of the current what the heck is happening with Greece.

What back testing will show is when a good D candle does show itself to resume the trend then normally a good few days (like this week) will follow. Thats when you'll make your pips.

Or in simplistic terms are there good lower highs, lower lows (or higher lows, higher highs in uptrend on 1hr). If the D and therefore the 1hr is going sideways you might need to sit out for a while, or look for other better currencies to trade. Other things to watch has D tdi flattened, has D pa refused to go lower for a couple of days, have 1hr candles reacted sharply higher when new lows have been tested (and failed), have previous recent days/session ranges been respected.

These are just a few off the top of my head theres no doubt lots more clues.
  • #4,757
  • Feb 16, 2012 8:11am Feb 16, 2012 8:11am
Quoting Vantage
These are just a few off the top of my head theres no doubt lots more clues.

Oh yes and Bernanke speaking in itself reason possibly for drift day.
  • #4,758
  • Feb 16, 2012 8:14am Feb 16, 2012 8:14am
Really love this system, gives great entry signals in conjunction with other basic technical setups.
  • #4,759
  • Feb 16, 2012 8:31am Feb 16, 2012 8:31am
Finally got my long breakout wait all day
  • #4,760
  • Feb 16, 2012 8:42am Feb 16, 2012 8:42am
Anyone in long position EURUSD?
My demo hit S/L for GBPUSD just now.
Now I have a long position for EU.
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