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Fail Better

  • #2,821
  • Edited 1:33pm Feb 15, 2012 10:45am | Edited 1:33pm
Quoting APeng
USDJPY RRT at 78.25 is not working out immediatly. Am I to impatient or is that a sign to get out again?
experienced advice is needed!= follow your instincts

I personally passed on that level.

currently in USDCHF SFP

I am not "experienced" so take my advice with a pinch of salt

lets see if the price repeats its self (I know some will say WTF)

http://content.screencast.com/users/...2-17.04.26.png

Exited for +5 pips . that big bar I am not liking
  • #2,822
  • Feb 15, 2012 11:08am Feb 15, 2012 11:08am
Hi SoftControl yes i also have a pending order @ 77.76 but i also expect a reaction at the higher level. Then if price drops my PO will be triggered as well.

Quoting SoftControl
Hi all, congratulations everyone for the good work.

Regarding Usd/Jpy level to buy, don't you prefer the lower one at 77,775 ?

http://content.screencast.com/users/..._UJ_Levels.png


I prefer it, mainly because the break happens soon after the highs, and the highs are together, anyway probably take both (78.26 & 77.77) if I see that Usd is at support at others pairs. (Confluence is very important for me, cause no market works in vacuum)

What do you think ?...
  • #2,823
  • Feb 15, 2012 12:20pm Feb 15, 2012 12:20pm
Quoting the_wizard
USDJPY you mean :-)
USDJPY is range bound so closed for +10.
  • #2,824
  • Feb 15, 2012 12:51pm Feb 15, 2012 12:51pm
Quoting Patrino
Hi everyone,

First post, long time follower.
I hope i have the hang of this, please see below pics of 2 of my pending setups.
1ST is a crude Short off of a daily SFP
2ND is a USDJPY long off of a RRT

Opposite correlation. i am a little concerned about the 1hour lvl on the crude at 1020 as this had SFP'd earlier on the hourly and has since reached hrly FTA. So after the close of the daily candle i put more weight on the Daily SFP .

Thoughts anyone?
thanks

Attachment
Attachment
Attachment
Had my Lunch money taken on this Crude SFP, i thought it was a good sfp Lvl since it took out last weeks high and the prior weeks high, 3rd time back with a pin-bar'ish shape to it, so my entry was just trying to get a better fill than the Candle close price. Went against me pretty fast, then jumped my stop loss at the high for a further 30pips. Ouch! I hear you Bez3000.

Eurjpy triggered for a RRT also taken me out today unfortunately.

Has been an expensive day, Tom could i have your thoughts on these setups please?

USDJPY has triggered, although two largish bearish hrly bars to my entry lvl have me now hovering over the sell button.
Void?
  • #2,825
  • Feb 15, 2012 1:14pm Feb 15, 2012 1:14pm
Patrino can you post some charts for eurjpy as i do not see a good trade? Did you trade the break of 103.17? If so i don't think it moved far enough away giving any space, but if you had traded it it worked hitting the bar highs?

USDJPY i was in this trade as well but it is range bound not going anyware, if the buyers existed it would have moved up by now. Also if you look left it did actually make it back to the bar lows (FTA). Looking back this was not a good trade as it only moved about 17 pips.


Quoting Patrino
Had my Lunch money taken on this Crude SFP, i thought it was a good sfp Lvl since it took out last weeks high and the prior weeks high, 3rd time back with a pin-bar'ish shape to it, so my entry was just trying to get a better fill than the Candle close price. Went against me pretty fast, then jumped my stop loss at the high for a further 30pips. Ouch! I hear you Bez3000.

Eurjpy triggered for a RRT also taken me out today unfortunately.

Has been an expensive day, Tom could i have your thoughts on these setups please?

USDJPY has triggered, although...
  • #2,826
  • Feb 15, 2012 1:34pm Feb 15, 2012 1:34pm
Hey,

got a question to that SFP on EU earlier today.

Yes, it was against the ongoing trend so the best would have been to look for a FTA.

But you also said in the webinar in sunday that ppl always exit too early.

The red line I identified as a FTA. Do you agree?

Any advice how to play that better?

http://content.screencast.com/users/...ea1a/eusfp.gif
  • #2,827
  • Feb 15, 2012 9:32pm Feb 15, 2012 9:32pm
interesting area
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 16-02-2012 2-30-21 PM.jpg Size: 82 KB
  • #2,828
  • Feb 15, 2012 10:01pm Feb 15, 2012 10:01pm
Quoting bez3000
Patrino can you post some charts for eurjpy as i do not see a good trade? Did you trade the break of 103.17? If so i don't think it moved far enough away giving any space, but if you had traded it it worked hitting the bar highs?

USDJPY i was in this trade as well but it is range bound not going anyware, if the buyers existed it would have moved up by now. Also if you look left it did actually make it back to the bar lows (FTA). Looking back this was not a good trade as it only moved about 17 pips.

Hi Bez. Thanks for the reply and help, yes the 103.17 was the area i was looking at on the eurjpy. I liked it for a Long as it closed up above the prior flip zone and looked to hold nicely. I had an FTA slightly higher than price reached based on the lows to the far left. Missed it by a few pips..
I thought we had gone far enough to stick the order in, but on second thoughts definately not. The slight roundedness of the retrace bluffed me in. Charts attached..

Shouldn't the USDJPY built up D1 lvl be stronger than the prior bar lows as an FTA? Pics attached, I thought the 2nd lvl marked up might be a more likely FTA? Or is that the 2nd TA. Thanks for your help!!
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURJPY 1hr LVL.jpg Size: 145 KB


Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurjpy D1.jpg Size: 137 KB


Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: USDJPY setup.jpg Size: 168 KB
  • #2,829
  • Feb 16, 2012 1:30am Feb 16, 2012 1:30am
Good to see price did make it upto the FTA in the end, did you hold out for it or bail like i did?


Quoting Patrino
Hi Bez. Thanks for the reply and help, yes the 103.17 was the area i was looking at on the eurjpy. I liked it for a Long as it closed up above the prior flip zone and looked to hold nicely. I had an FTA slightly higher than price reached based on the lows to the far left. Missed it by a few pips..
I thought we had gone far enough to stick the order in, but on second thoughts definately not. The slight roundedness of the retrace bluffed me in. Charts attached..

Shouldn't the USDJPY built up D1 lvl be stronger than the prior bar lows as an FTA?...
  • #2,830
  • Feb 16, 2012 1:32am Feb 16, 2012 1:32am
NZDUSD NFP H1.
  • #2,831
  • Feb 16, 2012 2:46am Feb 16, 2012 2:46am
Quoting trader8080
experienced advice is needed!= follow your instincts
out with + 10.
  • #2,832
  • Feb 16, 2012 3:33am Feb 16, 2012 3:33am
Hi guys

Just wanted to ask where most people put their stop when playing a SFP? Do you put the stop behind the SFP bar? Just wanted clarity as there seem to be conflicting views about this?
Seems like a lot of the time that price will go updown and test the high or low of the SFP bar before moving in the right direction so a stop behind the bar would be taken out? Please correct me if I am wrong!
  • #2,833
  • Feb 16, 2012 3:41am Feb 16, 2012 3:41am
Quoting Kalbar
Hi guys

Just wanted to ask where most people put their stop when playing a SFP? Do you put the stop behind the SFP bar? Just wanted clarity as there seem to be conflicting views about this?
Seems like a lot of the time that price will go updown and test the high or low of the SFP bar before moving in the right direction so a stop behind the bar would be taken out? Please correct me if I am wrong!
Stops placed just behind highs/lows are suckers stops IMO.
I would say it's worth sacrificing some RR and place the stop 10-15 ticks beyond the swing point, depending on the pair/timeframe etc
  • #2,834
  • Feb 16, 2012 4:50am Feb 16, 2012 4:50am
Quoting Kalbar
Hi guys

Just wanted to ask where most people put their stop when playing a SFP? Do you put the stop behind the SFP bar? Just wanted clarity as there seem to be conflicting views about this?
Seems like a lot of the time that price will go updown and test the high or low of the SFP bar before moving in the right direction so a stop behind the bar would be taken out? Please correct me if I am wrong!
As I remember, Tom does not put stop loss for SFP on 1H, he looks for H1 close
below/above SFP bar low/high for loss exit.
I use 1H close for most of my other setups too.
Imho, Most books teach to put SL - most pro traders don't!
Back test it and you will see
Anything can happen - You never know
  • #2,835
  • Feb 16, 2012 8:57am Feb 16, 2012 8:57am
Quoting bez3000
NZDUSD NFP H1.
SFP worked out well for +25 pips
  • #2,836
  • Feb 16, 2012 9:08am Feb 16, 2012 9:08am
Getting better with patience (those swearwords of TOM helping)

2:1

reason :SFP
Pair :USDCAD
H1
+40

http://content.screencast.com/users/...2-15.08.46.png
  • #2,837
  • Feb 16, 2012 10:28am Feb 16, 2012 10:28am
Just read the tweet that TOM has been barred from posting a message here. I mean SERIOUSLY WTF ! .

I am pretty pissed about this.

I hope he creates a New alias and posts here.

This thread is the only reason I Visit this Site. All healthy conversation here and very productive and as far as I can remember TOM has always been more than helpful.

Rant over/ Not very pleased about it. I am sure other members of this thread feel the same.
  • #2,838
  • Feb 16, 2012 10:59am Feb 16, 2012 10:59am
I agree this could be the end of this thread i think

Quoting trader8080
Just read the tweet that TOM has been barred from posting a message here. I mean SERIOUSLY WTF ! .

I am pretty pissed about this.

I hope he creates a New alias and posts here.

This thread is the only reason I Visit this Site. All healthy conversation here and very productive and as far as I can remember TOM has always been more than helpful.

Rant over/ Not very pleased about it. I am sure other members of this thread feel the same.
  • #2,839
  • Feb 16, 2012 1:53pm Feb 16, 2012 1:53pm
Quoting trader8080
Just read the tweet that TOM has been barred from posting a message here. I mean SERIOUSLY WTF ! .

I am pretty pissed about this.

I hope he creates a New alias and posts here.

This thread is the only reason I Visit this Site. All healthy conversation here and very productive and as far as I can remember TOM has always been more than helpful.

Rant over/ Not very pleased about it. I am sure other members of this thread feel the same.
OK, what's going on, really? What's the fuss all about? Why isn't Tom allowed to post?
Gregg Sniper in training
  • #2,840
  • Feb 16, 2012 2:11pm Feb 16, 2012 2:11pm
Not one for posting often but I have also just seen Toms tweet and would like to say this thread and Toms free webinar have been invaluable to me.
I have gained real benefit from both in identifying solid level plays.
Cant understand why Tom is unable to post maybe Twee could clear it up??

Mistake surely???

Im gutted !!!!
.
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