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Auction Market Theory and Market Profile

  • #4,321
  • Feb 14, 2012 10:44am Feb 14, 2012 10:44am
was short ES this morning on the break on Monday's inside US session. But the gap from Friday was filled with no continuation. closed the long for a small loss and reversed to long.

ES still strong, support levels still holding. time to see if that poor high will be taken out...
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Change is the only constant
  • #4,322
  • Feb 14, 2012 11:37am Feb 14, 2012 11:37am
Quoting s7c
hmmm, i've got long...price failed auction below tokyo's low, poor opening type in NY pit session, no continuation after the down range extension and we are aat the daily VAL/last 2 days VAL/last week VAL.

edit: you sold having in mind you're ~ curent day value area?
Your analysis may be infact correct, by the way, youve come along way!
I dont center my trades too much on the opening sessions as my references are minimal imo, Im looking for trades that take me from one side of value to the other. If I get too caught up in where I am in relation to the previous session refrences, Im not paying attention to where I am in relation to the OTF timeframe. Otf moves the market, they carry momentum, and large tf participants also have "large pockets". Alot larger than mine. They are also value traders, so they will be working above and below the values of larger tf profiles. I try to keep it simple. If Im so concerned with a failure of the low of ie, asia session, and waiting for little tests, Im not thinking about if Im standing in the middle of train tracks, above value of a multiday va, in which these large participants respond or initiate. I use the sessions more to watch how price unfolds. I trade 24/7 I dont limit my trades to just the opens. As it often contradicts what I doing in a longer term trade. imo the larger tf will always trump the the shorter tf analysis. Im not saying your analysis is wrong or not to use sessions, but always be mindful of where you are in relation to the OTF. And im always looking to get alittle more out of my trades than the session va's provide. My trade was based on the idea that a failure to see signs of strenghth above the multiday profile, solicits responsive otf sellers. Failure to break above the previous days val, helped with confirmation, but I take my queue's from the larger tf before I consider the the smaller.
Markets are not efficient, rather they are effective - Jones
  • #4,323
  • Feb 14, 2012 11:58am Feb 14, 2012 11:58am
I decided to add to my position as price seems to have difficulty staying above the 24h open. Again that open is the line in the sand for me. Thats the place that tells me if im wrong.........

However, that POC area could stop price in its tracts
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Markets are not efficient, rather they are effective - Jones
  • #4,324
  • Feb 14, 2012 12:21pm Feb 14, 2012 12:21pm
Quoting tgwhbb
was short ES this morning on the break on Monday's inside US session. But the gap from Friday was filled with no continuation. closed the long for a small loss and reversed to long.

ES still strong, support levels still holding. time to see if that poor high will be taken out...
i guess i was right with the first trade this morning...
Change is the only constant
  • #4,325
  • Feb 14, 2012 12:30pm Feb 14, 2012 12:30pm
Quoting tgwhbb
i guess i was right with the first trade this morning...
That's OK because the next trade will always be right around the corner!
Markets are not efficient, rather they are effective - Jones
  • #4,326
  • Edited 1:22pm Feb 14, 2012 12:40pm | Edited 1:22pm
Is a change after all, back to the lower range, closing in onto the VAL of the 5-12 day (edit) merge...

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  • #4,327
  • Feb 14, 2012 12:43pm Feb 14, 2012 12:43pm
Quoting mzvega
That's OK because the next trade will always be right around the corner!
indeed. in hind sight, not the place to take a trade anyway, ES in the middle of last week's VA... a short is risky as support has not yet been broken. and a long is risky due to the location relative to the long term.
Change is the only constant
  • #4,328
  • Feb 14, 2012 1:07pm Feb 14, 2012 1:07pm
Quoting Evak
Is a change after all, back to the lower range, closing in onto the VAL of the 5-12 week merge...
evak, is that not a daily merge?
Change is the only constant
  • #4,329
  • Feb 14, 2012 1:21pm Feb 14, 2012 1:21pm
Quoting tgwhbb
evak, is that not a daily merge?
my bad..it is daily not weekly...tks
  • #4,330
  • Feb 14, 2012 1:32pm Feb 14, 2012 1:32pm
Weekly compsite of 1-2;3-12 weeks, indicating the developing profile within the LUA with the estimated upp/low ledge...

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  • #4,331
  • Edited 2:00pm Feb 14, 2012 1:44pm | Edited 2:00pm
Quoting Evak
Weekly compsite of 1-2;3-12 weeks, indicating the developing profile within the LUA with the estimated upp/low ledge...

Attachment

Accordingly with this merge.... should we look for long around 1.3075/65 ?
I have a merge of previous 15 weeks too.....which shows a POC @1.3075. This shoud strenghten this idea....
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  • #4,332
  • Feb 14, 2012 1:50pm Feb 14, 2012 1:50pm
Quoting Evak
Weekly compsite of 1-2;3-12 weeks, indicating the developing profile within the LUA with the estimated upp/low ledge...


my long is already in place based on my chart with week 2-9 merge
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Change is the only constant
  • #4,333
  • Feb 14, 2012 1:53pm Feb 14, 2012 1:53pm
  •  s7c
  • | Joined Mar 2011 | Status: try and fail but don't fail to try | 289 Posts
Quoting mzvega
Your analysis may be infact correct, by the way, youve come along way!
I dont center my trades too much on the opening sessions as my references are minimal imo, Im looking for trades that take me from one side of value to the other. If I get too caught up in where I am in relation to the previous session refrences, Im not paying attention to where I am in relation to the OTF timeframe. Otf moves the market, they carry momentum, and large tf participants also have "large pockets". Alot larger than mine. They are also value traders, so they will...
i think i didn't express my self like i was supposed to...my question was regarding you're entry. from what i understand you are a value trader so i didn't understand to which value you've reported in your analysis because beside today's value area the M, W(last/current) found the price at the bottom of the value. that's why i asked. i didn't get which value you had as a guide and i didn't thought you've sold at the bottom of value and having just today's as reference wasn't to secure for me and you seemed pretty convinced, so something was missing and i was trying to understand what...i really try to implement this concept into my analysis.
thank's, i got'it now by the way...i really should start to play with merging profiles, for now i just save yours as reference
  • #4,334
  • Feb 14, 2012 1:57pm Feb 14, 2012 1:57pm
Quoting tgwhbb


my long is already in place based on my chart with week 2-9 merge
Mine too.....
But I was too hasty.... and bought some pips above you......
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  • #4,335
  • Feb 14, 2012 2:19pm Feb 14, 2012 2:19pm
Quoting Aztrader2
Mine too.....
But I was too hasty.... and bought some pips above you......
patience now, ~1.3070 is still in play. weekly IB currently at 204 pips, 11% wider than average. If EU drops before next day UTC time (less than 4 hours from now), that will still be considered in the weekly IB. Wider IB suggest rotation, so EU should rotate back up later during the week.

EDIT: i really like how weekly IB's play out. right now weekly IB low is at 1.3079 on my chart. I estimated 1.3080 yesterday base on IBH that was set and average IB range
Change is the only constant
  • #4,336
  • Feb 14, 2012 2:29pm Feb 14, 2012 2:29pm
Just wanted to post a chart of monthly perspective, the large profile is @3yrs, but this perspective gives me somwhat of a bearish bias. However, profiles over a larger tf take longer to evolve. but from this perspective I see responsive selling from the vah of the previous 2 month merge. Price still has to rotate so Im not saying anyone shouldnt be long. Im just looking at "context" The pink line is the yearly open for reference. Just as the 24h open, I find price in relation to the yearly open just as informative. I would like to think a test may be in order, but that could also be wishful thinking...........
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Markets are not efficient, rather they are effective - Jones
  • #4,337
  • Feb 14, 2012 4:13pm Feb 14, 2012 4:13pm
Today, for me, has been another great source of knoweledge & live experience....
Once more I saw how price respects Supp/Dem areas....
But, above all, how a correct merge (as many of you people greatly did) is the REAL key of the market....Apart of all other applications and nuances of MP....

The right merge lead us to correctly identify support/resistence areas.... the true ones....
Then we can see how price reacts around and trade accordingly. Each one following his own trading style (day/short term etc....)

I'm starting to look @ those video posted by mzvega (http://www.balancetrader.com/main/ca...e-euro/page/3/)
It would be nice to have for MT4 the same merging options as MARKET DELTA...these are really amazing!
  • #4,338
  • Feb 14, 2012 8:59pm Feb 14, 2012 8:59pm
Quoting Aztrader2
Accordingly with this merge.... should we look for long around 1.3075/65 ?
I have a merge of previous 15 weeks too.....which shows a POC @1.3075. This shoud strenghten this idea....
Trade location should be below the VAL of the current developing profile..then u would anticipate a response off this area. Unless your trading style is an agressive one, trader who bottom fish. Then the next opportuinity would be to wait for a pullback low entry, after you have seen a strong inertial move.
  • #4,339
  • Feb 14, 2012 9:09pm Feb 14, 2012 9:09pm
whipsaw day on ES for me. closed out for small losses on both a long and a short. at first my short on the break of the previous inside day low closed when there was no downside continuation. then i took a long in E period before it reversed at the top of A period. closed that one for a small loss as well.

entered a new long in M period as price left value after failing to extend downwards. now price is at a new high. I'm holding till tomorrow US electronic market to see where its at. If price is still up here, ES will likely gap up on NY open and possibly signal a valid upside extension.

my concern however is the poor low. Could ES be too short at these levels, and if so, then this up move is a stop hunt to make room for downside continuation. i think tomorrow AM will be key.
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Change is the only constant
  • #4,340
  • Feb 14, 2012 9:19pm Feb 14, 2012 9:19pm
Yearly composite profile of 1-5;6-8,9 showing minimum overlapping VA with price about 1/4 off the VAL of the 1-5 years. I posted this b4 when Bundang just release this merge indi but now i added the earlier years to check for overlapping...

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