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AUD/USD

  • #40,361
  • Feb 13, 2012 6:24am Feb 13, 2012 6:24am
Quoting stulic
Fair bit of guessing there don't you think?

Might just be easier to flip a coin, it's got two sides instead of five, head=up, tails=down. (navia aut caput)
I know this goes against the grain, but my strategy involves buying and selling at the same price in situations like this. I'm long from ~74 and short from ~76. The idea is to gradually close on the way down/way up and add more lots in the other direction. Basic Example:

Price | Long/Short
1.075 | 50/50
1.070 | 75/25
1.065 | 100/0
1.080 | 25/75

Make money on the way down and then when it comes back up No S/L's here. Keep your leverage in tact for some DEEP swings and you're good to go.

I always wondered.. why be 100% committed to being long/short if you can't guarantee it'll move in your favoured direction 100%?
  • #40,362
  • Feb 13, 2012 6:31am Feb 13, 2012 6:31am
Quoting diggo
I know this goes against the grain, but my strategy involves buying and selling at the same price in situations like this. I'm long from ~74 and short from ~76. The idea is to gradually close on the way down/way up and add more lots in the other direction. Basic Example:

Price | Long/Short
1.075 | 50/50
1.070 | 75/25
1.065 | 100/0
1.080 | 25/75

Make money on the way down and then when it comes back up No S/L's here. Keep your leverage in tact for some DEEP swings and you're good to go.

I always wondered.. why be 100% committed to...
Well of course since there is no "holy grail", it all depends on your way of trading, if you're going after 1000 pips, then you'll be trading big swings and trend reversals in which case your SL's wont be smaller then 150-200 pips. If you're just daytrading your lotsize will be bigger but you'll only be going for something between 20 and 100 pips, then you don;t have to worry about being right for weeks but hours.

Either way you do the same, you enter, you ride and you exit.
Don't get mad, get even!
  • #40,363
  • Feb 13, 2012 6:48am Feb 13, 2012 6:48am
looks like the aud stayed in my channel it would be interesting to see what it does now either it continues and forms a flat either it will respect the channel and go up
Trade what you see not what you hope
  • #40,364
  • Feb 13, 2012 7:00am Feb 13, 2012 7:00am
Quoting stulic
Well of course since there is no "holy grail", it all depends on your way of trading, if you're going after 1000 pips, then you'll be trading big swings and trend reversals in which case your SL's wont be smaller then 150-200 pips. If you're just daytrading your lotsize will be bigger but you'll only be going for something between 20 and 100 pips, then you don;t have to worry about being right for weeks but hours.

Either way you do the same, you enter, you ride and you exit.
Sorry stulic I wasn't supposed to be directing my comments toward you specifically, but thanks for the input. You're one of the most knowledgable guys in this thread and I've been learning quite a bit from you.

I'm more of a day trader you could say, trading several mini lots in both directions daily targeting anywhere from 25-100 pips. I learned a lot from the crash last August and now I'm Prepared for future events such as this one (regarding leverage)
  • #40,365
  • Feb 13, 2012 7:06am Feb 13, 2012 7:06am
Quoting stulic
Fair bit of guessing there don't you think?

Might just be easier to flip a coin, it's got two sides instead of five, head=up, tails=down. (navia aut caput)
Agree watch The China and listen local news and you will get idea wich way AUD will go
  • #40,366
  • Feb 13, 2012 7:08am Feb 13, 2012 7:08am
Quoting redteamgo
agrd. i wouldnt even consider a short until 0780.. even then, it depends on PA.

shorting this pair sucks anyway. its expensive.
my overnight offer at 0780 just missed. unfortunate.

might buy a bounce at 0730 based on the consolidation at that level from 10-2am EST. at work.. not chart available, sorry.
Any prices quoted are futures
  • #40,367
  • Feb 13, 2012 7:10am Feb 13, 2012 7:10am
Quoting stulic
Well of course since there is no "holy grail", it all depends on your way of trading, if you're going after 1000 pips, then you'll be trading big swings and trend reversals in which case your SL's wont be smaller then 150-200 pips. If you're just daytrading your lotsize will be bigger but you'll only be going for something between 20 and 100 pips, then you don;t have to worry about being right for weeks but hours.

Either way you do the same, you enter, you ride and you exit.
trading must be so easy when you can trade both sides of a pair simultaneously. you cant do this in the US
Any prices quoted are futures
  • #40,368
  • Feb 13, 2012 7:19am Feb 13, 2012 7:19am
Quoting diggo
Sorry stulic I wasn't supposed to be directing my comments toward you specifically, but thanks for the input. You're one of the most knowledgable guys in this thread and I've been learning quite a bit from you.

I'm more of a day trader you could say, trading several mini lots in both directions daily targeting anywhere from 25-100 pips. I learned a lot from the crash last August and now I'm Prepared for future events such as this one (regarding leverage)
So you're hedging against yourself and paying spread twice?
Purely mathematically and logically you have no chance of winning in the long term, sorry but that's a scientific fact. You have more chance of winning in the long term if you flip a coin every morning and that chance is about 40% minus the spread, if you wanna hedge then trade a basket of currencies instead of just one pair, try to exploit strengths and weaknesses of currencies and hedge crosses against each other.

In the end you will always be presented with the decision to make, to close the losing or the winning trade...
Same as starting with one in the first place, minus one extra spread.
Don't get mad, get even!
  • #40,369
  • Feb 13, 2012 7:32am Feb 13, 2012 7:32am
Quoting stulic
So you're hedging against yourself and paying spread twice?
Purely mathematically and logically you have no chance of winning in the long term, sorry but that's a scientific fact. You have more chance of winning in the long term if you flip a coin every morning and that chance is about 40% minus the spread, if you wanna hedge then trade a basket of currencies instead of just one pair, try to exploit strengths and weaknesses of currencies and hedge crosses against each other.

In the end you will always be presented with the decision to make,...
Actuall, this is where I disagree. Sorry I can't write too much because I'm on my iPhone now.. But I do not care for spreads, they are almost irrelevant in the long term. They are pocket change. I almost never close a losing trade. I'll let them run for months if I have to. Over time they will come back into profit. Sometimes it's obvious that I need to close at a loss, but it's a small loss in the big scheme. My equity grows every week. That's all that matters. I close my shorts in profit on the way down.. At the same time I'm adding longs, longs and more longs. Yes the loss can seem huge at some points. But I know I have enough equity, and when it turns around into the direction I want.. Profits are huge. I close them all gradually and start shorting again if it seems fit. I advise you to read a thread from fxtitan for more explantion.
  • #40,370
  • Feb 13, 2012 7:42am Feb 13, 2012 7:42am
If it works out for you then it's all good, can't see much sense in it though myself.
Sooner or later everybody realizes that there is no full-proof strategy that will make your equity grow forever, diversifying and adopting to changes in sentiment can give you a profitable edge.
Don't get mad, get even!
  • #40,371
  • Feb 13, 2012 7:53am Feb 13, 2012 7:53am
Quoting stulic
If it works out for you then it's all good, can't see much sense in it though myself.
Sooner or later everybody realizes that there is no full-proof strategy that will make your equity grow forever, diversifying and adopting to changes in sentiment can give you a profitable edge.
It's certainly not fool proof. If you don't know what you're doing you'll get burned. It took me a while to really grasp the concept myself. The most important important thing is to keep leverage in check, accounting for very deep swings and you'll be okay!

Anyway I'm off to sleep, good night!
  • #40,372
  • Feb 13, 2012 9:00am Feb 13, 2012 9:00am
Is anyone here familiar w/ a King's Crown pattern? It's a variation of a S&H pattern, and I was wondering if anyone had a chart available on hand? Gracias
  • #40,373
  • Feb 13, 2012 9:49am Feb 13, 2012 9:49am
@ diggo
Av been thinking bout this method but my fear is that how do you know the trend is going to continue after closing the one that is not bringing profit. I have done something like that before and the trend just changed immediately i closed one. Is there an indicator that will determine the continuity of an existing trend. I am a newbie pls.
  • #40,374
  • Feb 13, 2012 11:23am Feb 13, 2012 11:23am
>3) >>> AUD/Usd <<< Weekly view - 4 Hours Chart in analogy with the 35 Pips Range Bars Chart:

http://www.dukascopy.com/imageserver...2/image189.jpg

http://www.dukascopy.com/imageserver..._2/image99.jpg

To Your success,
Doctortyby
  • #40,375
  • Feb 13, 2012 4:44pm Feb 13, 2012 4:44pm
AUD/USD @1.0735

The 1.0750 resistance was taken out but once stops set it couldnt hold.
Despite Greece approving it, a dodgey cloud is overhanging an already nervous market.
The goat killers have to come clean and default.

Locally our PM Julia Gillard was interviewed on a local current affairs program last night about the coup over former PM Kevin Rudd.
It made Pinocchio look like he was on truth serum... Disgraceful..

Today range 1.0675 - 1.0775 nothing inspiring ..
AUD vs Crosses range play ..

We have NAB business confidence.. expect it to be shot to pieces..

Good luck and happy valentines day (for those who love to pay the top)
  • #40,376
  • Feb 13, 2012 7:48pm Feb 13, 2012 7:48pm
I see further retracement to 1.03 levels, technically.

Fundamentally, I think the Greece craze is over, I would probably label that positive.
Commodity prices stagnant - sideways.
China imports reduced drastically - bad.

http://www.indexmundi.com/commoditie...oal-australian
Coal prices go up- good.
  • #40,377
  • Feb 13, 2012 8:03pm Feb 13, 2012 8:03pm
Hi i entry short at 3position 1.07847, 1.07623 and 1.07565 at TP at 0.99981 any suggestion? Will audusd go to the gap below?? Im new this forex but still learning
  • #40,378
  • Feb 13, 2012 8:34pm Feb 13, 2012 8:34pm
Daily chart show continuing down, hopfully down hill break this gap then reach other gap down soon but following wave first in order to reach the destiny.
  • #40,379
  • Feb 13, 2012 8:40pm Feb 13, 2012 8:40pm
[quote=rnegoro;5381709]I see further retracement to 1.03 levels, technically.

it is also what i exspect
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #40,380
  • Feb 13, 2012 8:44pm Feb 13, 2012 8:44pm
Quoting darwisy78
Hi i entry short at 3position 1.07847, 1.07623 and 1.07565 at TP at 0.99981 any suggestion? Will audusd go to the gap below?? Im new this forex but still learning
For how long do you expect to hold this positions open? The swap will eat you alive.
Don't get mad, get even!
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