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  • #4,261
  • Feb 10, 2012 4:52pm Feb 10, 2012 4:52pm
Quoting j4d
OK, Sorry guys for throwing the Order flow thing into the ring.....

I like to know where the interbanks like to stop hunt...but its not for everyone.

Please except my appologys,

Ja
i don't know about others but this subject interest me, the threat on the order flow, is also fine '( even if there's no big secret, some posts are very useful, at least for newbies like me) so if you find finally the article that you are talking about don't hesitate.
  • #4,262
  • Feb 10, 2012 4:57pm Feb 10, 2012 4:57pm
Quoting Cun
For instance if using risk=1, reward=2, probability of winning 50%. You risk 25 pips in the first trade and win 50 pips. In the second trade you risk 50 piips and lost -50 pips. The net profit is zero.
This is not the case if a trader position size's correctly ... although the net pips profit might come out even, if managed correctly, the $ profit should be positive.

i.e.

risking 2% per trade ...

You risk 25 pips (2%) in the first trade, and win 50 pips = 4% gain

You risk 50 pips (2%) in the second trade, and lose 50 pips = 2% loss

If you have position sized correctly, you are still up 2%.

IMO, the only time to not position size is if you always use the same sl and have a USD based account ...

if you use variable SLs and/or your account is denominated in other currencies, then position sizing is very important.

[e.g. my account is based in NZD, so even if everything else is equal, if the NZDUSD has changed (which it often does) then that can mean I have to alter my required position size to ensure that I still only risk 2%].
1 pip at a time ... if the entries are strong, the rest will follow ...
  • #4,263
  • Feb 10, 2012 9:18pm Feb 10, 2012 9:18pm
Looking at these two areas are some of the problems I am having.

I have looked at phx62 older posts and seen him tackle these types of situations when price has insane daily range like 200 pips or more.

I am not sure what to do or look at when price goes 90 pips or more before london opens. Entering these areas seems a bit late and kind of guessing. And most of the time when price moves 90 pips or move I am not sure if it will continue to move or range out.

In hindsight these would have been good buys but when you see price has moved 100 pips before london open...what to do? Price behaved like this alot last year. Need to know what to read or be looking at so I dont hesistate when price decides to move alot over its normal range.
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  • #4,264
  • Feb 10, 2012 11:25pm Feb 10, 2012 11:25pm
Quoting Phx62
SEE POST #3960. I explained my reason for taking that trade in that post.
Thank you Phx62
  • #4,265
  • Feb 11, 2012 2:37am Feb 11, 2012 2:37am
Hi guys, considering the right time, would this be considerd a good trade on the 4H method?
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  • #4,266
  • Feb 11, 2012 5:42am Feb 11, 2012 5:42am
Quoting Phx62
That would have been a good entry as soon as that candle opened and the TDI showed a cross...... AT THE BEGINNING of that candle.....could have netted 60+ pips. Technically, the first two blue candles would serve as set-up candles, even though they were doji's. If that setup had occurred during London, I would have taken it also.
Phx
So for you to take on a TDI cross, the setup candle must be inside the London timeframe too, no asian and not even Frankfurt first H1 candle ?
  • #4,267
  • Feb 11, 2012 6:20am Feb 11, 2012 6:20am
Quoting only20gp
Hi guys, considering the right time, would this be considerd a good trade on the 4H method?
I would be all over that trade next week, like a rat on a Cheeto, and not just the 4 H, for so many reasons, some fundamental, plenty of technical -

- Divergence on Daily
- Bounce of 100 MA Daily
- A-B-C correction there
- AUD-USD, while over the 200 MA, due for correction
- GBP-USD already broken 4 H & Daily trend lines down
- USD-CHF is heading up, chart is opposite
- USD-CAD going up also
- USD-JPY going up also

IF those moves continue, and even slightly bad news from EZ, the E-U will go down, take small bites and see if you can ride it DOWN

Do your own research, take no advice from me, or at your own RISK

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It takes a lot for me to IGNORE you, but you can try.
  • #4,268
  • Feb 11, 2012 11:05am Feb 11, 2012 11:05am
Quoting sarmatius
Phx
So for you to take on a TDI cross, the setup candle must be inside the London timeframe too, no asian and not even Frankfurt first H1 candle ?
No....if I am at my computer and a setup candle occurrs prior to London, I may take the trade but my study and experience has taught me to very cautious with the London Open.....many times the 1st or 2nd candle will reverse and go the other way.....for me to be confident in that trade, there needs to be some other confirmation (i.e. support levels, strong PA, MA's, long term trend lines, divergence, fib levels, news, etc).....just something to increase the probabilities that PA will continue the direction of my trade. That is why learning to read PA is so important!
  • #4,269
  • Feb 11, 2012 12:21pm Feb 11, 2012 12:21pm
Quoting Phx62
No....if I am at my computer and a setup candle occurrs prior to London, I may take the trade but my study and experience has taught me to very cautious with the London Open.....many times the 1st or 2nd candle will reverse and go the other way.....for me to be confident in that trade, there needs to be some other confirmation (i.e. support levels, strong PA, MA's, long term trend lines, divergence, fib levels, news, etc).....just something to increase the probabilities that PA will continue the direction of my trade. That...
Wise words.......
Memories caught in time but never forgotten
  • #4,270
  • Feb 11, 2012 2:58pm Feb 11, 2012 2:58pm
Quoting Phx62
No....if I am at my computer and a setup candle occurrs prior to London, I may take the trade but my study and experience has taught me to very cautious with the London Open.....many times the 1st or 2nd candle will reverse and go the other way.....for me to be confident in that trade, there needs to be some other confirmation (i.e. support levels, strong PA, MA's, long term trend lines, divergence, fib levels, news, etc).....just something to increase the probabilities that PA will continue the direction of my trade. That is why learning to read...
Good habits, lesson learnt.Thanks!

Hi Ja, nice to see you here.You started to experiment S3 too ?
  • #4,271
  • Feb 11, 2012 3:39pm Feb 11, 2012 3:39pm
Quoting azFin
Jason, not sure if you had an answer for an alarm clock yet. This is the one I use on my laptop next to my bed at night.

http://freealarmclocksoftware.com/

Enjoy.
Thanks azFin, I'll check that one out....after doing a quick google I found this one as well.

http://www.timeleft.info/
  • #4,272
  • Feb 11, 2012 3:42pm Feb 11, 2012 3:42pm
Quoting esj_joo
you may consider some kind of countdown alarm like the link below.
http://download.cnet.com/Cool-Timer/...-10062255.html
Thanks! I'll check it out.
  • #4,273
  • Feb 11, 2012 5:06pm Feb 11, 2012 5:06pm
Quoting sarmatius
Good habits, lesson learnt.Thanks!

Hi Ja, nice to see you here.You started to experiment S3 too ?
Hi Sarmatius,

No, I dont trade the S3 way, but I do find there's some good people
here on the thread, and it makes for interesting reading.....

ja..
Memories caught in time but never forgotten
  • #4,274
  • Edited 3:42am Feb 12, 2012 1:06am | Edited 3:42am
Quoting Jbomb21990
Emmanuel7788...would you mind sharing your Support/Resistance indicator on post 4222? Thanks

Hi Jbomb,

If you are referringto those lines marking the H4 highs and lows, please got to post #2826.

For the daily pivots levels ...X-Man posted the SonicR Chart Panel which will do this. Nice indy with lots of features, You need to experiment with it and set the correct lines and colours you want to see. Goto post #3626.

Good Trading!
Honesty is a very expensive gift. You wont find it in cheap people.WBuffett
  • #4,275
  • Feb 12, 2012 1:19am Feb 12, 2012 1:19am
Quoting j4d
Please except my appology's wrenski.........

If any one else is interested in learning about order flow, here is a nice
article i have found on FF.
You can forward your trading immensely by understanding this...

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=193795

Ja.

Many thanks Ja for these info links.

I still have pleny to read up and have deeper insight into how people read price and interpret market sentiments.
Knowing is always better than not knowing.
Knowing that thare are unknowns will keep me going day in day out.
Life as a trader is taking a long journey and we never reach our destination.
I just love it.

Wish you and everyone a great trading week ahead.
Honesty is a very expensive gift. You wont find it in cheap people.WBuffett
  • #4,276
  • Feb 12, 2012 2:30am Feb 12, 2012 2:30am
Quoting Erebus
I would be all over that trade next week, like a rat on a Cheeto, and not just the 4 H, for so many reasons, some fundamental, plenty of technical -

- Divergence on Daily
- Bounce of 100 MA Daily
- A-B-C correction there
- AUD-USD, while over the 200 MA, due for correction
- GBP-USD already broken 4 H & Daily trend lines down
- USD-CHF is heading up, chart is opposite
- USD-CAD going up also
- USD-JPY going up also

IF those moves continue, and even slightly bad news from EZ, the E-U will go down, take small bites and see if you can ride...
Hi Erebus,

Thanks for sharing this fresh insight on EU.

Good thing that you highlighted the major pairs. Timely reminder for me to check these correlations.

The price-oscillator divergence will surely come into play next week. Hopefully, there will be wide swings during the week to capture some good intraday trades. When the market decides on the next big move, it will take some along but leave many behind.

I will keep my eyes on the ABC 3 waves, to see how it will further develop. I was looking for a higher high for a Wave-C completion but with the divergence appearing now, things will take a different shape.

Good share, thanks again.

But, I have a question on USD Index and I hope to tap your wealth of knowledge and resources here. How can one use this USD Index in realtime trading intraday hourly?

Have a great trading week ahead.
Honesty is a very expensive gift. You wont find it in cheap people.WBuffett
  • #4,277
  • Feb 12, 2012 3:47am Feb 12, 2012 3:47am
Thanks vtayha, I'll follow that through, I appreciate your help. Aussie Brian
  • #4,278
  • Edited 8:27am Feb 12, 2012 4:21am | Edited 8:27am
Quoting emmanuel7788
Hi Erebus,

Thanks for sharing this fresh insight on EU.

Good thing that you highlighted the major pairs. Timely reminder for me to check these correlations.

[font=Verdana][size=2][color=black][color=black][font=Verdana]The price-oscillator divergence...
Hi Emmanuel7788,

Thats a great question......... personally I think most Institutional FX traders use the index as a USD dollar strength meter, ie if the index is struggling to break through resistance and looking to correct/turn you could
use this info with some pairs as maybe a turning point is imminent..

I'm sure Erebus being a straight to the point person will correct me if he
thinks differently ! LOL..

This is in line with what is called risk on/risk off trading....

EURUSD... I look at this pair as a strength meter, if like last week
( really since 17/18 of Jan ) the USD has been getting weaker, this is
risk on, the USD is classed as a safe haven, if it gets weaker
this means "risk on", stronger "risk off" .

This means instruments like the Indices, DOW, FTSE commodity pairs etc
like USDCAD, USDAUD etc generally GAIN due to risk on trading.

For me this means I will only trade risk on pairs, in recent times i have really
only traded USDAUD and USDNZD because they adhere to my trade plan..
I will though keep an eye on other AUD, NZD pairs to try and get a gauge of
there strength.

An example would be.

AUDJPY, AUD strength
AUDCHF, AUD strength ( although JPY & CHF are highly correlated with USD)
GBPAUD, AUD strength
EURAUD, AUD strength

AUD looks good to go then....

Which brings me to the point, emmanuel7788 I know you might know someone
who might be able to code an indicator for this....
A currency strength indicator.. ( no more manual checking, hmmm, LOL..)


Sorry for the ramble....Ja
Memories caught in time but never forgotten
  • #4,279
  • Feb 12, 2012 4:56am Feb 12, 2012 4:56am
j4d, there are several currency strenght meters, popular is one made by hanover, but I prefer something like that:

http://www.forexstrategiesresources....trength-index/
Thoughts are things
  • #4,280
  • Feb 12, 2012 4:59am Feb 12, 2012 4:59am
Quoting Quezoy
j4d, there are several currency strenght meters, popular is one made by hanover, but I prefer something like that:

http://www.forexstrategiesresources....trength-index/

Thank you Quezoy........

I will take a look..

Ja.
Memories caught in time but never forgotten
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