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Technical Analysis Fallacy

  • #30,881
  • Feb 12, 2012 1:13am Feb 12, 2012 1:13am
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-0...f-danger-.html
  • #30,882
  • Feb 12, 2012 1:14am Feb 12, 2012 1:14am

"Alberto Gallo, head of European credit strategy at Royal Bank of Scotland Group Plc, talks about the outlook for resolution of Greece's debt crisis and the credit market in Europe."



http://www.bloomberg.com/video/86133538/
  • #30,883
  • Feb 12, 2012 1:26am Feb 12, 2012 1:26am
Quoting Arhs99
My answer would be that I can identify it when it happens but not before it happens. Generally when you go into a period of peristent lower volatility. But this is something that I am still in the first steps of learning.

If there is still volatility but no clear direction, is this what you are referring to? In that situation I guess I wouldn't be able to tell but I would still go with what I believed was the main trend.

But I would be very interested to know how I can see it before it happens. Is it possible?
ya ifi knew, i would had slept instead of risking my eyes. not woth it for 20+ pips.
Ok risk again monday
now rest. thanks sifu huang, i want to battle.
Must train, MUST train.
You can rest in peace, I rest in pieces.


regards

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  • #30,884
  • Feb 12, 2012 2:21am Feb 12, 2012 2:21am
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  • #30,885
  • Feb 12, 2012 3:24am Feb 12, 2012 3:24am
Bloodsports
  • #30,886
  • Feb 12, 2012 6:11am Feb 12, 2012 6:11am
Quoting Arhs99
I have no idea but it looks like it's a game that we (me at least) cannot play profitably.
My friend you can do it, if you say you can't you will never be able to do it.

If the EU average daily range is 120 pips then is it not possible to pull out some pips out that range.

Pull out your m5 chart and see the importance of 13235, pull out your daily chart and see what 13220 is and you will know why it was a sell.

Further draw fib on daily from 27th Oct 2011 high to 13 Jan 2012 low and you will see the importance of 38.2 level and the swing high in progress. Having said doesn't mean it will keep going down, now it might will go back up again.

Higher high higher low doesn't necessarily mean the trend has changed to the upside, it can go back to its major downtrend anytime so be not rigid and go with the flow.

All the support/resistance, fibs, moving averages are there to be broken at one point or another and nothing more than that and this is what the fallacy is all about.

I am sure "YOU CAN DO IT" otherwise you have lost it before you even have started.

Just my opinion..

Regards

PS: IF you are new to trading then you have lot to learn but not a big deal all the successful ones have learned.
  • #30,887
  • Feb 12, 2012 6:45am Feb 12, 2012 6:45am
Quoting simpleman
My friend you can do it, if you say you can't you will never be able to do it.


PS: IF you are new to trading then you have lot to learn but not a big deal all the successful ones have learned.
Thanks. I have the motivation and determination to improve. My main background is in Science and I have also been successfully playing online poker for the last few years so I think have some of the mindset that is needed for trading and if not, at least I have lots of risk capital to take a shot. However when in congestions I only experiment with the demo account

I've been a student of FX trading since ... last October and I'm studying mainly this thread, using a simulator to follow published "dances", but also trying to get some background/general idea in Finance Maths and market microstructure. Still too early though, hopefully I can put things together at some point.
  • #30,888
  • Feb 12, 2012 7:34am Feb 12, 2012 7:34am
first I would like to refer to all US pairs (majors) and "say" that I see (eventually ) the usd much more down then it is now e.g. (usd-chf less then 0.8600 due to resistans at 0.9200 , also USD-CAD at 0.9450 in a few weeks ( again because of resistance at 1.0050-1.0080 area ) the NZD should jump to 0.8530 in the next few days also ( so r the AUD with 1.1018 target ) . All the above r pure resistance of trend lines...

Now for EUR-USD .... 2 scenarios to this pair....
1. move to the up side to 1.3550-1.3620 in this week to come and from there .... to less then 1.2500 ....
2. the 1.3300 tops. meaning this is the high of the next few months.
I prefered the 1st scenario.
watch it carefully. I may right on this thoughts.
good luck to all of us.
  • #30,889
  • Edited 7:56am Feb 12, 2012 7:42am | Edited 7:56am
Quoting ronenasp
first I would like to refer to all US pairs (majors) and "say" that I see (eventually ) the usd much more down then it is now e.g. (usd-chf less then 0.8600 due to resistans at 0.9200 , also USD-CAD at 0.9450 in a few weeks ( again because of resistance at 1.0050-1.0080 area ) the NZD should jump to 0.8530 in the next few days also ( so r the AUD with 1.1018 target ) . All the above r pure resistance of trend lines...

Now for EUR-USD .... 2 scenarios to this pair....
1. move to the up side to 1.3550-1.3620 in this week to...
ok, thanks for your introduction.
I will open stall at HK for you.
You can make your fortune with your crystal ball.
Fotune telling is big business, also open feng sui stall at the side for you, sell rock crystals.

Thanks, But My fortune is in my own hands.

regards
  • #30,890
  • Feb 12, 2012 7:44am Feb 12, 2012 7:44am
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  • #30,891
  • Feb 12, 2012 8:05am Feb 12, 2012 8:05am
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  • #30,892
  • Edited 8:46am Feb 12, 2012 8:16am | Edited 8:46am
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readied, 144 divisions with own their own battle groups.
So do not expect any updates too large to report. need full focus and listening mind.
  • #30,893
  • Feb 12, 2012 8:34am Feb 12, 2012 8:34am
Quoting imjscn
yesterday, my niece told me "when people get old, things are just like that la".

But I still feel her short skirt is not as stylish as mine. :nerd:

Fighting ... no matter what.
yes, nice spirit. MAMBO on, yeah.
go go, go get em.


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  • #30,894
  • Feb 12, 2012 8:46am Feb 12, 2012 8:46am
Quoting fti
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QQ37RLXNAgc

readied, 144 divisions with own their own battle groups.
So do not expect any updates too large to report. need full focus and listening mind.
ai ya,Who switched my keys?
Cousairs are my favourites, BUT
This bird is for last century.
Find me the real one.

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  • #30,895
  • Edited 9:09am Feb 12, 2012 8:58am | Edited 9:09am
Troops ready.


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  • #30,896
  • Feb 12, 2012 9:31am Feb 12, 2012 9:31am
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saddle up , lock and load.
bra on, wait for tracers.
battlestations.
  • #30,897
  • Feb 12, 2012 9:50am Feb 12, 2012 9:50am
comeon boys close up.
15 pips spreads? you can do better.
i deal 13195/00
  • #30,898
  • Feb 12, 2012 10:00am Feb 12, 2012 10:00am
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  • #30,899
  • Feb 12, 2012 10:03am Feb 12, 2012 10:03am
right keys this time.
here goes.Watch your behind.
Radio silence.

Go, Go GO. geranimo !!

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Good Fortune.
regards
  • #30,900
  • Edited 11:13am Feb 12, 2012 10:37am | Edited 11:13am
what a bunch of con.
quote piptits and make markets 15 pips spread. thats 150 piptit spreads.
Best you chaps learn how write the word shame.
what a bunch of phony whims?
i deal 95/00 up to $1
if you cannot quote then best you switch off your consoles permanently. shameless
Is already dealing day. Is so nice screw all the open interest for 15 pips. What a con.
does these brokers factor in their 15 pips spreads in when they advertise.
"Oh we quote euro average 1.8 pips 24/7."
all lies.all bullshit.
the authorities should be notified.
these lie to the public in publications.

i'll still get you when wellington comes on.
shameless broking. spit at you.
And don't deny that you not wide. Your quote is 13188/13203 euros
i hit your 88 bid and you accepted deal.
so you in fact quoting 15 pips, factor that into your average.
I have trade prove,"time and sales" if the authorities would like audit.

Best i go back interbank TMU desk for my dealings. These bunch retail brokers is not professionals.
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