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Technical Analysis Fallacy

  • #30,861
  • Feb 11, 2012 8:32am Feb 11, 2012 8:32am
Quoting fti
yes noted.
The alternative of staring at the wall , i sort of not like.
Thanks, is noted.

regards
hahaha yes......you are quite right. chief should i recommend something for reading? You will like it. I got the idea from staring at walls.

regards
  • #30,862
  • Feb 11, 2012 8:36am Feb 11, 2012 8:36am
Quoting fti
for long tenure, here are other possibilities. If enough lines drawn, all sorts patterns can emerge.
Bias is fundamentally bearish , technically the up strengths's making all very confused.
Politically is uncertainties , because the thing is falling apart, in bits and pieces, because the core is flawed.

If i have to trade, i not want take any sides. My task is only win pips.
Yes Sir .
I perfectly understand it "If i have to trade, i not want take any sides. My task is only win pips" And i understand That all the attacks and resques are just for this that you never know where the market will go it is just our edjucated guess and from there is a battle.
Yes i know that Technical view can be different but there is no end to it once i decided i have to try to make the best of my analisis i think.

But For me Turning is not an option. Because it is very hard to determin the trend and to stay on it even if i am wrong i will take out my atack bleed and try to recover without turning my base very small so that i can bleed till dead in the water.
My sqew 1:1:1 and no more i am just learnig for now
and resque 1:1:2:4 (Martingale) i know it is now very strong but i dont want to leave behind to much resorces.
I am also warkng on my scorpions sometime i cant listen to myself and go on biger sqew and it ends not on a good side.
Tell me please is There ani exercise for discipline, somthing that i can work on to stops the scorpions ? You know sometime after scorpions surfaced and the battele ended not in my favor i try to recap what happened and i cant explain to myself why i did something that i forbided to myself to do before
Its funny but it true
egards
Michael
Do not be victim to conflict of the General and Commander in you - by FTI
  • #30,863
  • Feb 11, 2012 8:42am Feb 11, 2012 8:42am
how does greece news affected EU?
  • #30,864
  • Edited 9:11am Feb 11, 2012 8:42am | Edited 9:11am
Quoting -Michael-
Yes Sir .
I perfectly understand it "If i have to trade, i not want take any sides. My task is only win pips" And i understand That all the attacks and resques are just for this that you never know where the market will go it is just our edjucated guess and from there is a battle.
Yes i know that Technical view can be different but there is no end to it once i decided i have to try to make the best of my analisis i think.

But For me Turning is not an option. Because it is very hard to determin the trend and to stay on it even if i am wrong...
Noted.michael.
I too resort to something i call God's skew when i really get into hot soup.
Point taken, hope you think about thinkgs from my experience, may help book.

Now get some more rest and good chi exercise tom, get ready for Monday battle.

Goodnite all



regards
  • #30,865
  • Feb 11, 2012 11:00am Feb 11, 2012 11:00am
Quoting -Michael-
Yes Sir .
I perfectly understand it "If i have to trade, i not want take any sides. My task is only win pips" And i understand That all the attacks and resques are just for this that you never know where the market will go it is just our edjucated guess and from there is a battle.
Yes i know that Technical view can be different but there is no end to it once i decided i have to try to make the best of my analisis i think.

But For me Turning is not an option. Because it is very hard to determin the trend and to stay on it even if i am wrong...

For what its worth....many people in this thread went through same cycle..

V
  • #30,866
  • Feb 11, 2012 2:31pm Feb 11, 2012 2:31pm
Quoting indianguyinny24
For what its worth....many people in this thread went through same cycle..

V
Hello Vic
Yes I know and i am ready for this cycle . I am long time lurker reading and rereading . Trying sometimes with positive outcome and something negative . I belive that eventualy like FTI said i will consive something mine. That it is not exactly FTI not to be the carbon copy because it is imposible. But to get to somehting that i will be comfortable with. With basics of this Thread .
Till Then i am on my learning Curve.
I think about Story of "Cocon of an Emperor moth"
Regard
Michael
Do not be victim to conflict of the General and Commander in you - by FTI
  • #30,867
  • Feb 11, 2012 3:38pm Feb 11, 2012 3:38pm
Quoting -Michael-
I always want to know if we in uptrend or downtrend on daily and from there go in and look for impulse.
But even this hard. Because of Broad Congestions and because i know that 70% of the time market dont go anywere make harder to determine trend.
From my newb's perspective, and someone correct me if I'm wrong, you should stay away from situattions like fti's little dance.
In a congestion period you have a lot of noise and only those with huge experience and skills but also access to the order flow information could see behind this noise and look for an opportunity to make a profitable trade. Such ppl are for example interbank dealers and fti has been one and although he doesn't have access anymore to order flow information (I guess), he knows the mode of operation of other dealers and then from his own experince he can identify possible target levels.

Another thing, his trade took place late afternoon on a Friday, after London had closed and NY starting to think about their night out rather than trading. A totally different market than let's say Tuesady 09:00 GMT Maybe it's the time that marketmakers look into their bag of tricks?

I have no idea but it looks like it's a game that we (me at least) cannot play profitably.
  • #30,868
  • Feb 11, 2012 4:46pm Feb 11, 2012 4:46pm
Quoting Arhs99
From my newb's perspective, and someone correct me if I'm wrong, you should stay away from situattions like fti's little dance.
In a congestion period you have a lot of noise and only those with huge experience and skills but also access to the order flow information could see behind this noise and look for an opportunity to make a profitable trade. Such ppl are for example interbank dealers and fti has been one and although he doesn't have access anymore to order flow information (I guess), he knows the mode of operation of other dealers and then...
Arhs99, 2 questions --
1. how to identify congestion area before it happens?
2. how to catch the trend after congestion if you wasn't in the congestion area?

fti's Friday trade wasn't an answer to the above questions, instead, it's an answer to this question--- "What to do if get in congestion area?"--This is an area we spend 70% of our trading life in.

Hope this adds a little thoughts to your trading idea.
  • #30,869
  • Feb 11, 2012 6:34pm Feb 11, 2012 6:34pm
Quoting imjscn
Arhs99, 2 questions --
1. how to identify congestion area before it happens?
2. how to catch the trend after congestion if you wasn't in the congestion area?

fti's Friday trade wasn't an answer to the above questions, instead, it's an answer to this question--- "What to do if get in congestion area?"--This is an area we spend 70% of our trading life in.

Hope this adds a little thoughts to your trading idea.
Well I don't know the answer to these 2 questions and I don't think I should try to, since it will be an exercise to predicting the future (?)

Anyway I was making the point that less skilled and experienced traders should not try what fti showed.
If i can add, my personal view, which maybe very wrong, is that after a lot of ppl went short b/c of the Greek effect, there would be a lot of stop orders above 1.3200 that maybe the NY dealers were eyeing for to make quiick profit or get rid of their euro long positions. Again this is just a thought not based on any experience or knowledge but I'm hoping to induce a response from the more experienced members here.
  • #30,870
  • Feb 11, 2012 6:48pm Feb 11, 2012 6:48pm
Quoting Arhs99
Well I don't know the answer to these 2 questions and I don't think I should try to, since it will be an exercise to predicting the future (?)

Anyway I was making the point that less skilled and experienced traders should not try what fti showed.
If i can add, my personal view, which maybe very wrong, is that after a lot of ppl went short b/c of the Greek effect, there would be a lot of stop orders above 1.3200 that maybe the NY dealers were eyeing for to make quiick profit or get rid of their euro long positions. Again this is just a thought not...
If you don't know how to identify congestion area before it happens, then, how would you decide to stay away?
  • #30,871
  • Feb 11, 2012 8:23pm Feb 11, 2012 8:23pm
Quoting imjscn
If you don't know how to identify congestion area before it happens, then, how would you decide to stay away?
My answer would be that I can identify it when it happens but not before it happens. Generally when you go into a period of peristent lower volatility. But this is something that I am still in the first steps of learning.

If there is still volatility but no clear direction, is this what you are referring to? In that situation I guess I wouldn't be able to tell but I would still go with what I believed was the main trend.

But I would be very interested to know how I can see it before it happens. Is it possible?
  • #30,872
  • Feb 11, 2012 8:48pm Feb 11, 2012 8:48pm
Quoting Arhs99
I would still go with what I believed was the main trend.
How to do that?
  • #30,873
  • Feb 11, 2012 9:05pm Feb 11, 2012 9:05pm
Quoting imjscn
How to do that?
I wish I knew. That's why I used the word "believe". Generally I would say it is the direction of the latest main impulse in a 5m timeframe, or the direction that HH or LLs are formed, or where the PA travels in relevance to the hourly average in a 5m timeframe, the market sentiment, some cobination of these. As I said I'm still learning...

Hopefully you will answer some of my questions too or correct my mistakes. Thanks.
  • #30,874
  • Feb 11, 2012 9:21pm Feb 11, 2012 9:21pm
I don't know the right answer either. But I know such things happening all the time--
when you see it's a trend, you fear to get in to see it's a congestion.
When you see it's a congestion, you decide to avoid it only to see it's a foreplay of a long leg later.

When I am in such situations, a little dance helps cashing in some pips while expose some positions for a possible long leg.
  • #30,875
  • Feb 11, 2012 9:33pm Feb 11, 2012 9:33pm
Quoting imjscn
When I am in such situations, a little dance helps cashing in some pips while expose some positions for a possible long leg.
I see. We both have this same idea but what makes you profitable and me either losing or chicken out is this "little dance". Hopefully I can understand one day and maybe dance too.
  • #30,876
  • Feb 11, 2012 9:45pm Feb 11, 2012 9:45pm
Many seniors demonstrated their little dance along the thread. Last Friday, fti's little dance was also an excellent example.
  • #30,877
  • Feb 11, 2012 10:14pm Feb 11, 2012 10:14pm
Enjoying the interaction between you two.

Seems no matter how well I think I may be coming along, I get something else from this thread that furthers my understanding.

I am grateful to be apart of this thread.

Good Trading
Mike
  • #30,878
  • Feb 11, 2012 10:17pm Feb 11, 2012 10:17pm
Quoting imjscn
Many seniors demonstrated their little dance along the thread. Last Friday, fti's little dance was also an excellent example.
Hows eyes???


V
  • #30,879
  • Feb 11, 2012 10:32pm Feb 11, 2012 10:32pm
Quoting indianguyinny24
Hows eyes???


V
yesterday, my niece told me "when people get old, things are just like that la".

But I still feel her short skirt is not as stylish as mine. :nerd:

Fighting ... no matter what.
  • #30,880
  • Feb 11, 2012 10:37pm Feb 11, 2012 10:37pm
Quoting imjscn
yesterday, my niece told me "when people get old, things are just like that la".

But I still feel her short skirt is not as stylish as mine. :nerd:

Fighting ... no matter what.
that is great answer and great spirit ...my wife even smiled reading this...

V
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