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Auction Market Theory and Market Profile

  • #4,281
  • Feb 11, 2012 12:18pm Feb 11, 2012 12:18pm
Some informational data..........
Attached File(s)
File Type: pdf Intraday Patterns in FX returns and orderflow.pdf   580 KB | 1,549 downloads
File Type: pdf FXMicrostructure-Survey_07-15-08 (1)1.pdf   630 KB | 930 downloads
Markets are not efficient, rather they are effective - Jones
  • #4,282
  • Feb 11, 2012 5:26pm Feb 11, 2012 5:26pm
Quoting Aztrader2
Hi guys....

I'm watching Dalton's webinar about daytrading @ the start of a day....
He refers to an "Overnight" session (Yellow Area) before NY Pit Open. Has anybody idea if he consider as Overnight only London or the whole session after previos NY close?
Do the same principles apply for London Pit Open? I.e. Overnight starts after previous day's London Pit Close?

Chart is EU
Thanks!
FYI
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...11#post4573411
  • #4,283
  • Feb 12, 2012 12:38pm Feb 12, 2012 12:38pm
  •  s7c
  • | Joined Mar 2011 | Status: try and fail but don't fail to try | 289 Posts
Quoting Evak
Risk/Reward would usually be not ideal here. If i look at the auction proccess during the UK session, Price was rotating b4 the spike down. That spike is the intiatives move which means market have decide to START to move value lower... next price would stop & seek balance on the current distribution level...

Bearing in mind Steidlmayer 4 step process of market aunction...
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...50#post5364850

Odds still favor a lower price...

Note that tails or a good low does not mean price have...
this is just priceless, for everything else you've got mastercard...
  • #4,284
  • Feb 12, 2012 12:53pm Feb 12, 2012 12:53pm
  •  s7c
  • | Joined Mar 2011 | Status: try and fail but don't fail to try | 289 Posts
Quoting mzvega
Im reluctant to bring this topic up again, as we have done this dance before . The perception of an LLB......

Mind over markets p 131 paragraph 2

"..........As is characteristic of a long liquidation

break, subsequent time periods showed a lack of seller continuation and

a transition to one-timeframe buying"...............

being that there is no transition and no onetime framing, it lacks, the very same...
i totally agree, but when you analyze the market for previous day, week..etc it needs to reflect the potential high probability moves and the LLB is just one of them. we need to consider that but not to act on this alone. so based on cause&effect principle if we gonna establish a solid effect (up move with confirmation in context) and we already know the cause (LLB), i think is rational to think that from all options which align at the start this one is the lucky winner.
  • #4,285
  • Feb 12, 2012 3:51pm Feb 12, 2012 3:51pm
I closed all of my shorts in profit at the close friday, except one, and it flew back to my entry leaving me slightly negative, I added to the position when it broke above my original entry, I figured it was a great trade for me last week, why not try it again. . Ill see how long lived it lasts before I have to bail.......
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: merged.jpg Size: 327 KB
Markets are not efficient, rather they are effective - Jones
  • #4,286
  • Feb 12, 2012 4:01pm Feb 12, 2012 4:01pm
Still wasting our times with AMT....?
Naaaaahhhh, there's a guy who found the holy grail into another thread......

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=341821
  • #4,287
  • Feb 12, 2012 4:04pm Feb 12, 2012 4:04pm
Quoting mzvega
I closed all of my shorts in profit at the close friday, except one, and it flew back to my entry leaving me slightly negative, I added to the position when it broke above my original entry, I figured it was a great trade for me last week, why not try it again. . Ill see how long lived it lasts before I have to bail.......
Open/test/drive @ friday's VAH? Is it enough? Did you shorted it coz it gapped but into previous range?

Thanks!
  • #4,288
  • Feb 12, 2012 4:05pm Feb 12, 2012 4:05pm
Quoting mzvega
Mind over markets p 131 paragraph 2

"..........As is characteristic of a long liquidation

break, subsequent time periods showed a lack of seller continuation and

a transition to one-timeframe buying"...............
Hi Claudia,

you are right. What I was implying is that since the down move was not initiative as it was a responsive down move from the top of value down to the bottom of value, that it has a greater chance of being a LLB. Of course, we can not tell that until one-timeframing up resumed, which is finally did in the last 3 30-minute periods on Friday. of course by that time my long was stopped out as my stop was too tight. Had I kept it below the shakeout low as I first had it, i'd still be in long and positive by 10 points at the moment.

Now I wait till tomorrow morning, but bias is still long on ES IMO.
Change is the only constant
  • #4,289
  • Feb 12, 2012 4:46pm Feb 12, 2012 4:46pm
Quoting tgwhbb
Hi Claudia,

you are right. What I was implying is that since the down move was not initiative as it was a responsive down move from the top of value down to the bottom of value, that it has a greater chance of being a LLB. Of course, we can not tell that until one-timeframing up resumed, which is finally did in the last 3 30-minute periods on Friday. of course by that time my long was stopped out as my stop was too tight. Had I kept it below the shakeout low as I first had it, i'd still be in long and positive by 10 points at the moment.

Now...
I have been reading your posts long enough to know exactly what you were implying, Im familiar with your trading style , however there many new comers who dont take the time to read the thread, or the materials and assume they can easily understand the theory of AMT by following posts in a thread they dont want to take the time to read. Many without a firm grasp of the basic fundamentals reconize the pattern, but dont understand the mechanics.
Markets are not efficient, rather they are effective - Jones
  • #4,290
  • Feb 12, 2012 5:05pm Feb 12, 2012 5:05pm
There are people who know everything, and unfortunately that's all they know.
[Oscar Wilde]
  • #4,291
  • Feb 12, 2012 5:32pm Feb 12, 2012 5:32pm
Quoting Aztrader2
There are people who know everything, and unfortunately that's all they know.
[Oscar Wilde]
One doesnt need to know everything..........
but they do need to know that if you might want to educated yourself about alittle something, it might do someone good to actually read a book.
Markets are not efficient, rather they are effective - Jones
  • #4,292
  • Feb 12, 2012 8:02pm Feb 12, 2012 8:02pm
Quoting Aztrader2
There are people who know everything, and unfortunately that's all they know.
[Oscar Wilde]

"uncertainty is the only everything we dont' know."
-Kave Kimura
  • #4,293
  • Feb 12, 2012 8:17pm Feb 12, 2012 8:17pm
"I trade to make money, not philosophical arguments"

-Some dude
  • #4,294
  • Feb 12, 2012 10:23pm Feb 12, 2012 10:23pm
  •  s7c
  • | Joined Mar 2011 | Status: try and fail but don't fail to try | 289 Posts
i love to collect quotes, so i will continue what you've started with a quote which i think should reflect out believes:
“Try not to become a man of success, but rather try to become a man of value.”-einstein

i'm not decided yet, regarding the market. we have the friday's value overlapping lower with the POC moving on the lower distribution of a double distribution day. so by directional performance we have moderately weak market. but the price closed on friday at the top of lower distribution which implies some responsive buying and in current asia session price failed to close the opening gap, not a JD gap though.
so mixed sentiment for me at this moment, i will watch the market closely till i fall asleep...
  • #4,295
  • Feb 13, 2012 8:36am Feb 13, 2012 8:36am
I Did'nt see such a balance in this Thread... Lookis like its going to break wild...

Which Way ???
If it was easy, everyone would do it.
  • #4,296
  • Feb 13, 2012 8:55am Feb 13, 2012 8:55am
ES long taken after IB correction of overnight (A, B, and C periods), and bounce on new gap support form sunday opening, which is also last week's POC. I now expect a new high to be made. If it does not, i will either set SL to BE or close the position. if a new high is made, but does not hold, i will close as well, it could be a false move. But so far i'm still seing strength on ES for upside continuation.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Change is the only constant
  • #4,297
  • Feb 13, 2012 11:17am Feb 13, 2012 11:17am
My EU thoughts, unchanged from late last week, downside bias towards 1.3080 - 1.3050 area - ledge of value from previous 7 week merge (weeks 2-9). EU looks to be filling the current LUA between 1.3050 - 1.3300. Last Friday's London session (blue) had a clear break back into previous VA (VA shown with fib between 3220 and 3080. Today's London tested the top of that break and found no buyers, and today's NY session carving out value back below 3220.

No open trades yet, could not find a suitable entry today. Tomorrow will complete the weekly IB which is currently only 85 pips, which leaves about 120 pips of room for a normal weekly IB. that targets 1.3080 nicely as today's low is around 1.32 at the moment.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screen Shot 2012-02-13 at 2.11.06 PM.png Size: 60 KB
Change is the only constant
  • #4,298
  • Feb 13, 2012 11:29am Feb 13, 2012 11:29am
Quoting tgwhbb
My EU thoughts, unchanged from late last week, downside bias towards 1.3080 - 1.3050 area - ledge of value from previous 7 week merge (weeks 2-9). EU looks to be filling the current LUA between 1.3050 - 1.3300. Last Friday's London session (blue) had a clear break back into previous VA (VA shown with fib between 3220 and 3080. Today's London tested the top of that break and found no buyers, and today's NY session carving out value back below 3220.

No open trades yet, could not find a suitable entry today. Tomorrow will complete the weekly IB which...
Great looking perspective, nice merge imo. I think merging in different ways a great way to find many asymetrical oppertunities.
Markets are not efficient, rather they are effective - Jones
  • #4,299
  • Feb 13, 2012 12:50pm Feb 13, 2012 12:50pm
Quoting tgwhbb
ES long taken after IB correction of overnight (A, B, and C periods), and bounce on new gap support form sunday opening, which is also last week's POC. I now expect a new high to be made. If it does not, i will either set SL to BE or close the position. if a new high is made, but does not hold, i will close as well, it could be a false move. But so far i'm still seing strength on ES for upside continuation.
closed the trade once one timeframing stopped on break of K period. no new high today, ES still showing poor highs in last several pit sessions, and choppy trading. I think this market, while still showing strength, is currently too long.

Now watching last week's low around 1330-1335, to see if it holds - that coincides with monthly VAL and merge POC (feb-july monthly merge). I would like another shot at loading up some longs at the merge VAL around 1270. That is also the reference Robin Mesch has outlined in her report.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screen Shot 2012-02-13 at 3.42.58 PM.png Size: 51 KB
Change is the only constant
  • #4,300
  • Edited 4:10pm Feb 13, 2012 2:10pm | Edited 4:10pm
I closed my short positions except one at the us close, however I decided to add a short in hopes to travel the distance to the bottom of the larger merged profile. Im not sure if it will amount to much. But Ill see how this turns out...............

Edit: Closed all short positions at the asian open, Im now flat for the day.......
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: merged.jpg Size: 266 KB
Markets are not efficient, rather they are effective - Jones
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