This was my 4th week trading the methods set out in this thread live. And it wasn’t a good one. 5 trades (1 gap, 1 SFP, 3 rounded retests), 5 losses. If you add on the previous trade the previous Friday (also a rounded retest) that is 6 losses in a row.
As I have a relatively small account, I am risking 5% per trade. In many cases it’s very difficult to have a position size smaller than that. In my first 3 weeks I grew my account by 5% (it would have been more but for some silly decisions in my first week), so I am now 20% down and feeling a bit glum.
I know that losses will come, and a long losing streak is inevitable at some point, but 6 in a row in only my 4th week sets alarm bells ringing. I am going to post my last 6 trades here and I would be very grateful for any feedback on how I might improve my performance.
Trade 1
Friday 3 February
USD/JPY
Rounded retest: Short
Entry: 76.58
Stop – 76.73
Target – 76.43
Normally I find it difficult to monitor the markets while I am at work, so I rely on research and placing market orders during the evening. However I was working from home this day, and was working on my work laptop with my charts on display on my home PC in the background. I saw this order trigger when price shot up towards my entry level (which I thought was a good daily level) following the non-farms announcement. I am showing the hourly chart here, but if you look at the 5 min you will see that price reversed 5 pips beyond my level, and within 15 minutes had raced halfway to what I thought was the FTA and my limit order. It then sharply reversed again and I was stopped out a couple of hours later.
This trade reminded me of the Wizard’s on Gold a couple of weeks ago (which incidentally I would have taken, and been stopped out on, but my order failed to trigger). I know Wizard says that he likes acceleration into the entry level, but this more than accelerated. It suddenly flew into it. Given the speed of the move upwards, it was encouraging to see that nonetheless there was a reaction off the level, but perhaps I should have been more flexible about my exit and not hung around for the FTA .
Having said that because it can be difficult for me check trades while at work, I am often not able to be flexible and so this will happen. On this occasion I was, but didn’t take the opportunity.
Trade 2
Sunday 5 February
EUR/USD
Gap: Long
This was the classic gap trade. We all know the Wiz’s stats on this, with a 0.5R/R and that’s how I played it. Frustratingly it turned shortly after stopping me out and filled most of the gap, before finally completing the fill on Tuesday morning. But that’s the first E/U gap trade that hasn’t worked for me, so no complaints on this one
Trade 3
Tuesday 7 February
USD/JPY
SFP: Short
Entry: 76.772
Stop: undefined
FTA: undefined at time
Exit: 76.81
The main thing to say here, is that this was an SFP trade. I knew as soon as I entered that I shouldn’t be in the trade. Not because it wasn’t a valid setup (there was an SFP at a level which I had marked on my chart), but because I have not yet worked out a way to manage SFP trades which I am comfortable with, and so therefore I should not take them until I have a coherent plan.
In this case I entered at the close of the SFP on the bar marked with an arrow and it immediately went against me. Again, unusually for me, I was working from home on a Tuesday so was able to watch this trade play out. I did not have a stop because I decided to exit if the hourly bar closed above the high of the SFP candle. It spent much of the next hour way about the high, and I got increasingly nervous about the amount of drawdown I was suffering and was on the verge of closing it, but it then started to move back in my direction. Because of my relatively small account I am not comfortable trading without a clearly defined maximum risk, which is why I need to find another way of managing SFP trades which suits me before taking any more.
Anyway price came back towards me, but closed marginally above the close of the SFP bar. Had it closed below the high of the previous swing high (marked with a triangle) it would have been another SFP itself, and I would have stayed in, but it missed that marginally too, so I closed the trade for a loss of 0.5 of my usual risk. Price dropped sharply on the next bar so had I stayed in, I would have (arguably) made it to the FTA (another mistake I made was not deciding where the FTA was in advance of taking the trade).
As I have a relatively small account, I am risking 5% per trade. In many cases it’s very difficult to have a position size smaller than that. In my first 3 weeks I grew my account by 5% (it would have been more but for some silly decisions in my first week), so I am now 20% down and feeling a bit glum.
I know that losses will come, and a long losing streak is inevitable at some point, but 6 in a row in only my 4th week sets alarm bells ringing. I am going to post my last 6 trades here and I would be very grateful for any feedback on how I might improve my performance.
Trade 1
Friday 3 February
USD/JPY
Rounded retest: Short
Entry: 76.58
Stop – 76.73
Target – 76.43
Normally I find it difficult to monitor the markets while I am at work, so I rely on research and placing market orders during the evening. However I was working from home this day, and was working on my work laptop with my charts on display on my home PC in the background. I saw this order trigger when price shot up towards my entry level (which I thought was a good daily level) following the non-farms announcement. I am showing the hourly chart here, but if you look at the 5 min you will see that price reversed 5 pips beyond my level, and within 15 minutes had raced halfway to what I thought was the FTA and my limit order. It then sharply reversed again and I was stopped out a couple of hours later.
This trade reminded me of the Wizard’s on Gold a couple of weeks ago (which incidentally I would have taken, and been stopped out on, but my order failed to trigger). I know Wizard says that he likes acceleration into the entry level, but this more than accelerated. It suddenly flew into it. Given the speed of the move upwards, it was encouraging to see that nonetheless there was a reaction off the level, but perhaps I should have been more flexible about my exit and not hung around for the FTA .
Having said that because it can be difficult for me check trades while at work, I am often not able to be flexible and so this will happen. On this occasion I was, but didn’t take the opportunity.
Trade 2
Sunday 5 February
EUR/USD
Gap: Long
This was the classic gap trade. We all know the Wiz’s stats on this, with a 0.5R/R and that’s how I played it. Frustratingly it turned shortly after stopping me out and filled most of the gap, before finally completing the fill on Tuesday morning. But that’s the first E/U gap trade that hasn’t worked for me, so no complaints on this one
Trade 3
Tuesday 7 February
USD/JPY
SFP: Short
Entry: 76.772
Stop: undefined
FTA: undefined at time
Exit: 76.81
The main thing to say here, is that this was an SFP trade. I knew as soon as I entered that I shouldn’t be in the trade. Not because it wasn’t a valid setup (there was an SFP at a level which I had marked on my chart), but because I have not yet worked out a way to manage SFP trades which I am comfortable with, and so therefore I should not take them until I have a coherent plan.
In this case I entered at the close of the SFP on the bar marked with an arrow and it immediately went against me. Again, unusually for me, I was working from home on a Tuesday so was able to watch this trade play out. I did not have a stop because I decided to exit if the hourly bar closed above the high of the SFP candle. It spent much of the next hour way about the high, and I got increasingly nervous about the amount of drawdown I was suffering and was on the verge of closing it, but it then started to move back in my direction. Because of my relatively small account I am not comfortable trading without a clearly defined maximum risk, which is why I need to find another way of managing SFP trades which suits me before taking any more.
Anyway price came back towards me, but closed marginally above the close of the SFP bar. Had it closed below the high of the previous swing high (marked with a triangle) it would have been another SFP itself, and I would have stayed in, but it missed that marginally too, so I closed the trade for a loss of 0.5 of my usual risk. Price dropped sharply on the next bar so had I stayed in, I would have (arguably) made it to the FTA (another mistake I made was not deciding where the FTA was in advance of taking the trade).