Auction Market Theory and Market Profile | Page 213 | Forex Factory

Options

Go to
Permalinks
Print Thread

Similar Threads

Auction Market Value Theory & Analytics 1,757 replies

market Theory 101 Supply and Demand,Market Cycles 7 replies

Market Profile And Volume Profile MT5 7 replies

MarketProfile/Volume Profile/Auction Market Theory indi? 17 replies

Market profile trader-Merged profile 0 replies

Attachments: Auction Market Theory and Market Profile
Exit Attachments

Auction Market Theory and Market Profile

  • #4,241
  • Edited 2:02am Feb 10, 2012 1:36am | Edited 2:02am
  •  s7c
  • | Joined Mar 2011 | Status: try and fail but don't fail to try | 289 Posts
http://www.cmegroup.com/education/ma...-it-works.html
regarding our trading, we will have another fat day without clarity?

edit: yesterday the POC was moved higher on higher volume and the value overlapped on high, if you add at this the buying tail from asia we get a bullish sentiment. in the same time the longer time frames retraced after we breached the balance area and the action was conducted by day time traders so if we didn't find initiative after price brake the resistance the price must move lower to facilitate the trade, no? k, but how low? the last 2 days low would be enough?
not sure what to trade in EU, at least i got a little clarification in /es made by Robin Mesch...
  • #4,242
  • Feb 10, 2012 1:56am Feb 10, 2012 1:56am
Quoting Aztrader2
So you all guys seems to be great trader.... just because you read Robin's outlook....


Seriously speakin' I just don't understand how she merges the profiles....
The report is from Feb. 1th..
Can someone explain to me what periods are the three different areas highlighted? I.e. The first one is the big merge corresponding to the period evidenced on the chart...and the secon & Third are last two monts? or weeks?

Thanks
that the art of merging i guest...

I just notice she use histogram now..
and her bell curve mark is just like guitar picks...
Attached Image
...
  • #4,243
  • Feb 10, 2012 4:17am Feb 10, 2012 4:17am
Quoting bandung
that the art of merging i guest...

I just notice she use histogram now..
and her bell curve mark is just like guitar picks...


I have got a nice merge here too of all all my "b" shape profiles...overlapping valueZ

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: raw-power_sg-lineup.jpg Size: 84 KB
  • #4,244
  • Feb 10, 2012 7:14am Feb 10, 2012 7:14am
Quoting Aztrader2
So you all guys seems to be great trader.... just because you read Robin's outlook....


Seriously speakin' I just don't understand how she merges the profiles....
The report is from Feb. 1th..
Can someone explain to me what periods are the three different areas highlighted? I.e. The first one is the big merge corresponding to the period evidenced on the chart...and the secon & Third are last two monts? or weeks?

Thanks
one of the things i like about robin's charts is that they are not bound by typical timeframes, they are defined by value areas, irrespective of time. It helps visualize the big picture IMO.

Area A is always the long term profile, going far back. In the case of the ES chart, as it is indicated its from June 2006.

Area B is always the previous VA. By previous I mean the VA prior to the current VA/range being developed

Area C is the current range under development.

In the ES chart, B equates to roughly 5 months range, from July 2011 to December. C is the last 2 months roughly. similar profiles are attached using a monthly merge. I had similar profiles posted before using quarterly merges which are roughly the same.

From this we can see that if 1320 doesn't hold, then there is a high chance of returnin to the 1270 area.
Attached Image
Change is the only constant
  • #4,245
  • Feb 10, 2012 8:06am Feb 10, 2012 8:06am
ES overnight looks like a 3i day. my overnight profile is Tokyo/Europe together. Initiative action leaving the previous overnight and NY VA, initiative extension, and initiative TPOs.

weekly profile show initiation leaving weekly control downwards. first target should be around 1325 and there we wait to see reaction, however still some support levels before that to get through. given the initiative action, we should see follow through on monday.

Waiting to see what NY IB will bring, but note the poor high in yesterday's NY session. Is this only a small LLB down to support at weekly VAL (1335), or is this a larger LLB in the making? IMO there are many reasons to go back to 1320. Naked weekly POC, and top of current (Jan-Feb) distribution VA
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screen Shot 2012-02-10 at 8.55.03 AM.png Size: 59 KB
Change is the only constant
  • #4,246
  • Feb 10, 2012 8:19am Feb 10, 2012 8:19am
As I recall, Robin does not merge her profiles by time but rather she merges until the profile approximates the bell curve.
Without VSA, you're playing checkers while the Smart Money plays chess.
  • #4,247
  • Feb 10, 2012 8:31am Feb 10, 2012 8:31am
EU i find a bit harder to read, but here are my thoughts.

London session initiative downside back into last week's completed VA. I period clear break back into VA (VAH 3220). L period bounced at VA median point (i use 50% to approximate at 3150). weekly merge shows downside room to about 3100-3080 area (high usage ledge).

approx 250 pip weekly IB (larger than normal) with no extension (assuming NY session doesn't extend), indicative of a "normal" week. Therefore weekly bias does not change IMO and dips should still be bought.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screen Shot 2012-02-10 at 9.21.00 AM.png Size: 60 KB
Change is the only constant
  • #4,248
  • Feb 10, 2012 8:33am Feb 10, 2012 8:33am
Quoting HiddenGap
As I recall, Robin does not merge her profiles by time but rather she merges until the profile approximates the bell curve.


good to see you hanging around these parts Do you still use MP to trade? If so, curious as to your approach....
Change is the only constant
  • #4,249
  • Feb 10, 2012 8:57am Feb 10, 2012 8:57am
I woke to be mildly surprized that my trades got filled. Ive had orders sitting below previous days open/close.......... Im hoping for price to test the POC on any of the merged profiles. I just woke up, havent had a chance to reevaluate my position.......
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: merged.jpg Size: 265 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: merged1.jpg Size: 237 KB
Markets are not efficient, rather they are effective - Jones
  • #4,250
  • Edited 9:34am Feb 10, 2012 9:07am | Edited 9:34am
Quoting tgwhbb
one of the things i like about robin's charts is that they are not bound by typical timeframes, they are defined by value areas, irrespective of time. It helps visualize the big picture IMO.

Area A is always the long term profile, going far back. In the case of the ES chart, as it is indicated its from June 2006.

Area B is always the previous VA. By previous I mean the VA prior to the current VA/range being developed

Area C is the current range under development.

In the ES chart, B equates to roughly 5 months range, from July...
Thanks for the answer tg
I already know what is merging, but wasn't able to recognize the kind of made by Robin...
  • #4,251
  • Feb 10, 2012 9:30am Feb 10, 2012 9:30am
I need to clarify some points about session open.
Some uses Electronic Market, some uses Pit open instead...
It's said "it's a personal preference".... But, I guess, doesn't this choice affects the final results of analisys?

What do you people suggests to use more than anything else, when it comes to forex?
Otherwise, maybe I base my arguments and my decisions upon a kind of open (e.g Electronic) when most of you works on Pit opens.... or vice versa...
So, becomes difficult to me compare and understand the analysis of who is more experienced than me, because maybe I have different profiles on my papers ...
I see someone uses Tokyo/Europe merged too...

Actually, for daily I let the indi (v 1.30) @ 0 hour (GMT+1), when my broker (Alpari UK) opens the day.

For split sessions I use Evak's template (indi V. 1.00) set to

Tokyo 0 (GMT+1)
London 9 (GMT+1)
NY 14 (GMT+1)

Thanks!
  • #4,252
  • Feb 10, 2012 9:53am Feb 10, 2012 9:53am
  •  s7c
  • | Joined Mar 2011 | Status: try and fail but don't fail to try | 289 Posts
Quoting mzvega
I woke to be mildly surprized that my trades got filled. Ive had orders sitting below previous days open/close.......... Im hoping for price to test the POC on any of the merged profiles. I just woke up, havent had a chance to reevaluate my position.......
i was thinking, last night i want to sell but i didn't know where. i like your sell order, logical place and good risk/reward. i need to start to use the sell stop orders more.
i got into a long in first 30 min of pit session based on reaction at the excess made in london but didn't like we are still above this week VAL. now i don't like how the trade evolved and for now it failed to extend the range up, my stop is below the IB just formed.
@ aztrader, i don't think anybody can say more regarding the subject. you need to study both parts arguments and chose what make sense for you, you can change your mind later...
  • #4,253
  • Feb 10, 2012 10:01am Feb 10, 2012 10:01am
Quoting s7c
@ aztrader, i don't think anybody can say more regarding the subject. you need to study both parts arguments and chose what make sense for you, you can change your mind later...
I'm not @ the point to say what is better to me...
I'd just like to know where you people set your opens times... coz, if I read a post and e.g. someone talks about a bounce @ NY open... or a rejection from Tokyo's VAL......I need to know to which open time he refers to understand his choice.....
  • #4,254
  • Feb 10, 2012 10:08am Feb 10, 2012 10:08am
Quoting tgwhbb
Waiting to see what NY IB will bring, but note the poor high in yesterday's NY session. Is this only a small LLB down to support at weekly VAL (1335), or is this a larger LLB in the making? IMO there are many reasons to go back to 1320. Naked weekly POC, and top of current (Jan-Feb) distribution VA
responsive buyers found at weekly VAL on B period shakeout. gap should now be filled, if not it's a sign of weakness. if move to gap fill above (around 1341) is with high confidence, will hold longer and see if today's VA is near yesterday's.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screen Shot 2012-02-10 at 11.04.34 AM.png Size: 50 KB
Change is the only constant
  • #4,255
  • Feb 10, 2012 10:46am Feb 10, 2012 10:46am
Quoting s7c
i was thinking, last night i want to sell but i didn't know where. i like your sell order, logical place and good risk/reward. i need to start to use the sell stop orders more.
i got into a long in first 30 min of pit session based on reaction at the excess made in london but didn't like we are still above this week VAL. now i don't like how the trade evolved and for now it failed to extend the range up, my stop is below the IB just formed.
@ aztrader, i don't think anybody can say more regarding the subject. you need to study both parts arguments...
Im a little disappointed as I had a better trade position. s7c did an excellent job in analysis, as I agreed. I took a short on a spike while above the vah. However, I fell into a trap of not "trusting my analysis". When a majority seems to have a difference of opinion, then I start questioning my bias. And as a result I closed my short. I had a line in the sand, the market opened & closed and opened again at the same price, that said alot. Im not a fan of stop & limit orders, but I gave up my original position and had to do something different. I had a feeling a break of that area would be swift, as not to give traders a chance to enter. Plus I had to sleep. Im still rebuilding my profiles for the day. I would like to think we still have a little more ways to go down @1.3120-30, but I could be expecting too much.
Markets are not efficient, rather they are effective - Jones
  • #4,256
  • Feb 10, 2012 11:01am Feb 10, 2012 11:01am
Caution... Bernanke is comin'......
  • #4,257
  • Feb 10, 2012 11:05am Feb 10, 2012 11:05am
Quoting Aztrader2
I'm not @ the point to say what is better to me...
I'd just like to know where you people set your opens times... coz, if I read a post and e.g. someone talks about a bounce @ NY open... or a rejection from Tokyo's VAL......I need to know to which open time he refers to understand his choice.....
Actually, this has been the topic of some pretty good discussion. In fact I posted a couple of "White papers" & articles on Fx microstructure, that support my opinions, while others shared info supporting theirs. The best way to find what works for you is to educate yourself and experiment. All the tools are here, all you have to do is use them.
Markets are not efficient, rather they are effective - Jones
  • #4,258
  • Feb 10, 2012 11:09am Feb 10, 2012 11:09am
I've just been reading markets in profile and then I find this thread will be all over this over the weekend looks excellent thanks everyone for sharing.
  • #4,259
  • Feb 10, 2012 11:22am Feb 10, 2012 11:22am
Quoting mzvega
Actually, this has been the topic of some pretty good discussion. In fact I posted a couple of "White papers" & articles on Fx microstructure, that support my opinions, while others shared info supporting theirs. The best way to find what works for you is to educate yourself and experiment. All the tools are here, all you have to do is use them.

Thanks for the hints....

But I suspect my english is not so good......
  • #4,260
  • Feb 10, 2012 11:32am Feb 10, 2012 11:32am
Quoting tgwhbb
responsive buyers found at weekly VAL on B period shakeout. gap should now be filled, if not it's a sign of weakness. if move to gap fill above (around 1341) is with high confidence, will hold longer and see if today's VA is near yesterday's.
I dont trade es, but I do enjoy your charts. I know absolutely NOTHING about the market. But I like to see what I might do if I was looking at that chart. So in complete ignorance, with nothing to support my opinion, I might look at merging, at least temporary, the last 2 profiles and see if that perspective, gives you a different feel.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: tgwhbb.jpg Size: 219 KB
Markets are not efficient, rather they are effective - Jones
12 traders viewing now