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AUD/USD

  • #40,201
  • Feb 9, 2012 6:42pm Feb 9, 2012 6:42pm
Quoting sidhujag
do you see the start of the biggest bull ever? right now just resembles 2009 and 2010.
Not looking very good for a bull run at the moment :d
Expect the unexpected.
  • #40,202
  • Feb 9, 2012 6:52pm Feb 9, 2012 6:52pm
my trendline was 1.0755

entered at 1.0750 for a good 50 pips
  • #40,203
  • Feb 9, 2012 6:55pm Feb 9, 2012 6:55pm
I'm still long on the aussie.. the dollar is weakening and aussie is still gaining. This is one of the strongest bulls next to NZDUSD.

Here's the daily outlook provided by gainforex based on the Chicago mercantile exchange report.

Australian dollar keeps rising against the US dollar. Market added fresh 1,523 contracts. Outlook remains bullish. Expect the correction and buy on dips. AUD open interest tends to drop significant amount in the space of a few days accompanied by sharp decline in price. The first signal of the trend reversal will be a significant decline in OI. Till now bull trend remains intact.
  • #40,204
  • Feb 9, 2012 7:04pm Feb 9, 2012 7:04pm
Quoting Dyekid217
I'm still long on the aussie.. the dollar is weakening and aussie is still gaining. This is one of the strongest bulls next to NZDUSD.
.
Im new to Forex so only ask this out of wanting to understand why.
What info is it based on that the $US is weakening?
I understand the interest rates are to remain low/same till 2013/4.

However fundamentally the US is slowly getting better.
The Dow Jones and other equity markets have been rallying upwards with multi month highs.
Job and housing data has been beating expectations.

Again im not being bashful but wanting to learn how to get a feel for all this and steer my thinking in the right direction.
Thanks in advance.
  • #40,205
  • Feb 9, 2012 7:11pm Feb 9, 2012 7:11pm
Quoting Zac
Im new to Forex so only ask this out of wanting to understand why.
What info is it based on that the $US is weakening?
I understand the interest rates are to remain low/same till 2013/4.

However fundamentally the US is slowly getting better.
The Dow Jones and other equity markets have been rallying upwards with multi month highs.
Job and housing data has been beating expectations.

Again im not being bashful but wanting to learn how to get a feel for all this and steer my thinking in the right direction.
Thanks in advance.
Purists will tell you it's all just supply versus demand.
  • #40,206
  • Feb 9, 2012 7:11pm Feb 9, 2012 7:11pm
Quoting Zac
Im new to Forex so only ask this out of wanting to understand why.
What info is it based on that the $US is weakening?
I understand the interest rates are to remain low/same till 2013/4.

However fundamentally the US is slowly getting better.
The Dow Jones and other equity markets have been rallying upwards with multi month highs.
Job and housing data has been beating expectations.

Again im not being bashful but wanting to learn how to get a feel for all this and steer my thinking in the right direction.
Thanks in advance.
the USD's considered a safe-haven currency. when there is positive US data, investors look to put their money in higher-yielding assets, aka risk-ON assets. the aussie, nzd, gbp, and euro (altho i'm not so sure nowadays) are these type of assets. when there is negative US data, investors are scared and park their money into safe-haven assets. the USD and the yen are the most popular ones.

basically, using aussie as example:

+ AUD data = + AUD
- AUD data = +USD
+ USD data = +AUD (uncertainty at first but ultimately it'll be +riskier assets)
- USD data = +USD
  • #40,207
  • Feb 9, 2012 7:17pm Feb 9, 2012 7:17pm
Quoting Zac
Im new to Forex so only ask this out of wanting to understand why.
What info is it based on that the $US is weakening?
I understand the interest rates are to remain low/same till 2013/4.

However fundamentally the US is slowly getting better.
The Dow Jones and other equity markets have been rallying upwards with multi month highs.
Job and housing data has been beating expectations.

Again im not being bashful but wanting to learn how to get a feel for all this and steer my thinking in the right direction.
Thanks in advance.
Here's a shot of the dollar index weakening since mid january.. also I like to follow commitment of traders and open interest in currency futures.

Consider forex as you are trading one currency's strength/weakness vs another currency's strength/weakness. A weak currency (USD) vs. a strong currency (NZD or AUD) through the past couple of weeks causes a trend.

Hence the downtrend in USDcad or uptrend in audUSD. It's whether the currency is a suffix or prefix in a pair. meaning you are selling the dollar and buying the cad in USDCAD. and buying the AUD and selling the USD in AUDUSD
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: usd index.png Size: 69 KB
  • #40,208
  • Feb 9, 2012 7:23pm Feb 9, 2012 7:23pm
new major levels 1.0770 to the upside with 4hr close or 1.715 close below will set direction.till then can play both ways.
  • #40,209
  • Feb 9, 2012 7:24pm Feb 9, 2012 7:24pm
anyone know when this data's supposed to come out?
  • #40,210
  • Feb 9, 2012 7:25pm Feb 9, 2012 7:25pm
  •  Cosi
  • | Joined Jun 2011 | Status: Little girl on the way! Due April!! | 36 Posts
Quoting Zac
Im new to Forex so only ask this out of wanting to understand why.
What info is it based on that the $US is weakening?
I understand the interest rates are to remain low/same till 2013/4.

However fundamentally the US is slowly getting better.
The Dow Jones and other equity markets have been rallying upwards with multi month highs.
Job and housing data has been beating expectations.

Again im not being bashful but wanting to learn how to get a feel for all this and steer my thinking in the right direction.
Thanks in advance.

When Dow and S&P rise money is diverted from long U.S dollar positions causing U.S dollar pairs to go against the U.S dollar. They have been working opposite each other. When the Dow & S&P drop, money flows into trades favoring strong U.S dollar positions. Techs hint that a Dow S&P correction is due as well as overbought levels in U.S dollar pairs such as AUD/USD NZD/USD EUR/USD. If technicals take charge of the market we could see further downside, if the news is positive we could see it push up. I had planned a short at 830/840 level but this was not reached so I had to settle for 820. Now I’m considering closing trade to secure profits. This Bull Run has been very strong and picking a top is way over my pay scale. I’m considering playing a bounce of the 1hr slow stock. This may range for a while between 745 and 820. Time will tell…. Good luck
  • #40,211
  • Feb 9, 2012 7:31pm Feb 9, 2012 7:31pm
Quoting BergenGlobal
anyone know when this data's supposed to come out?
No more than you, have you seen the FF news & calendar feature?

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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It takes a lot for me to IGNORE you, but you can try.
  • #40,212
  • Feb 9, 2012 7:35pm Feb 9, 2012 7:35pm
Quoting BergenGlobal
anyone know when this data's supposed to come out?
possibly after 1h (base on history)
Mohan
  • #40,213
  • Feb 9, 2012 7:36pm Feb 9, 2012 7:36pm
Cheers for all the replies.
That actually makes a lot of sense.
I was always intrigued why the Aussie dollar weakened when the news from the US was negative.
ie the downgrade of their credit rating, and the very volatile few months Aug-October.

While most people here seem to be short term/day traders of FX, I tend to be more middle term trader.
ie at the moment im Long the USDJPY pair and have been since December.
  • #40,214
  • Feb 9, 2012 7:37pm Feb 9, 2012 7:37pm
Quoting Erebus
No more than you, have you seen the FF news & calendar feature?

i did see that, certainly seems like the market's pricing in a negative outlook w/ the price action in the last 2hrs.
  • #40,215
  • Feb 9, 2012 7:42pm Feb 9, 2012 7:42pm
Very good it seems aud is drawing in some new fresh blood,Longs started flowing in.
  • #40,216
  • Feb 9, 2012 7:45pm Feb 9, 2012 7:45pm
  •  Cosi
  • | Joined Jun 2011 | Status: Little girl on the way! Due April!! | 36 Posts
Closed 820 short @ 750.... Now long at 7374
  • #40,217
  • Feb 9, 2012 8:04pm Feb 9, 2012 8:04pm
long at 1.07366
  • #40,218
  • Feb 9, 2012 8:06pm Feb 9, 2012 8:06pm
Trading range then breakout to down side or will bulls buy lower?
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #40,219
  • Feb 9, 2012 8:08pm Feb 9, 2012 8:08pm
i dont see this as a real down trend, although i hope so, i think its another dip below the trend line just to test a higher high.... i still think its a tricky trade but the r:r is going to be a killer
Waiting on greeks... looks soon
  • #40,220
  • Feb 9, 2012 8:29pm Feb 9, 2012 8:29pm
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