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  • #10,641
  • Jan 20, 2012 2:06am Jan 20, 2012 2:06am
I think that eu has bottomed, the last two days have made chart patterns not seen since before 27 October. I think it should continue above 1.30 for Friday.


Nice analysis Amy.

This week the daily has the lows where PA stopped. 1.2628.

The highs at 1.3027 on daily and the 3 week highs at 1.3024 match up for possible resistance levels soon.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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  • #10,642
  • Jan 24, 2012 2:51pm Jan 24, 2012 2:51pm
HI all,
Here is my first trade of the year. Longer SL due to my other commitments as I cant monitor closely.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: aud25112.gif Size: 21 KB
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  • #10,643
  • Jan 29, 2012 1:15pm Jan 29, 2012 1:15pm
Hey Everyone,
Here is what I got this week.

EU
I got a short in at confluence at fib 38. Market mae a push on friday and i was looking for some more profit taking to put this order more in the money but it looks fine for now. We'll see how it gaps in a few hours. There are some strong targets to the north for EU if PA can make it up to the 1.34-35 area. PA does need some distribution soon though

GU
PA is painfully close to my target. This is a strong confluence zone incluing Pivs, Fibs and SR. Im looking to sell there and buy on the retest of TL. A solid wall to the north is the Multi-High fibs confluence at roughly 1.5812. I have a panned out view for you as well which shows long term friction points. But like EU, we need some distribution soon.

NU
This pair is a real disappointment right now. It is consolidating right at the entry to my PPZ. You'll have to watch to see how EU and GU play out before making a trade on this one. The consolidation is making me worried that a better entry would be at the back of the PPZ, but we will see how Pivs reset as well as this will change our confluence zones.

GCAD
This pair is doing slightly better than UCAD. We have a PPZ formed at Fib confluence and Piv R. However, we will see how pivs reset. This pair is respecting TLs as well
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eu.jpg Size: 204 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: gu1.jpg Size: 188 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: gu2.jpg Size: 272 KB
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Click to Enlarge Name: gcad.jpg Size: 146 KB
  • #10,644
  • Jan 29, 2012 4:17pm Jan 29, 2012 4:17pm
I'm shorting au and holding for the week, if a drop comes it should be pretty sharp over the next 5-10 trading days.
  • #10,645
  • Jan 29, 2012 5:18pm Jan 29, 2012 5:18pm
Quoting amyc
I'm shorting au and holding for the week, if a drop comes it should be pretty sharp over the next 5-10 trading days.
*I am looking hard at 1.07 ish area..
  • #10,646
  • Jan 29, 2012 5:34pm Jan 29, 2012 5:34pm
Quoting amyc
I'm shorting au and holding for the week, if a drop comes it should be pretty sharp over the next 5-10 trading days.
Hi Amyc,
With you there, I got stopped out in the last one though.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: aud30112.gif Size: 22 KB
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  • #10,647
  • Jan 30, 2012 1:09am Jan 30, 2012 1:09am
Tradoholic, your nic is really talking! Working hard man!
  • #10,648
  • Edited 9:49am Jan 30, 2012 9:35am | Edited 9:49am
I think the USD index is going to decide where the EUR/USD and AUD/USD is going. Now the USD index 4 hr highs at 79.38, 79.44 and daily mid point at 79.32 have formed short term resistance. If the USD index breaks these levels and continues up to the 3 week mid point at 79.79 then its not safe for longs on AU and EU.
But for now I have just gone long short term AU and EU.
AU target at the 3 weekly highs 1.0760
EU target at the 3 weekly highs 1.3329
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: usd index 4 hr.jpg Size: 103 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: usd index daily.jpg Size: 107 KB
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Click to Enlarge Name: eurusd 3 weekly.jpg Size: 92 KB
  • #10,649
  • Jan 30, 2012 5:40pm Jan 30, 2012 5:40pm
Quoting ianlikesgolf
I think the USD index is going to decide where the EUR/USD and AUD/USD is going. Now the USD index 4 hr highs at 79.38, 79.44 and daily mid point at 79.32 have formed short term resistance. If the USD index breaks these levels and continues up to the 3 week mid point at 79.79 then its not safe for longs on AU and EU.
But for now I have just gone long short term AU and EU.
AU target at the 3 weekly highs 1.0760
EU target at the 3 weekly highs 1.3329
Interesting post re index and one i play with all the time...with mixed success..one thing i do know 90% of tyme it must change good direction... off a week or mth or 1/4 point.. as per Amyc on her journal..i hve recently added fibo and especialy ext fibo points.. especialy 1618 and 200..which gives me more confidence of turning point.. the current low all these point came to gether..for me work in progress....
  • #10,650
  • Jan 30, 2012 7:33pm Jan 30, 2012 7:33pm
Quoting danc
Interesting post re index and one i play with all the time...with mixed success..one thing i do know 90% of tyme it must change good direction... off a week or mth or 1/4 point.. as per Amyc on her journal..i hve recently added fibo and especialy ext fibo points.. especialy 1618 and 200..which gives me more confidence of turning point.. the current low all these point came to gether..for me work in progress....
the low was not a paticularly strong pivot ..

Forgot to mention Index..Ud currently topped out approx 11 hrs ago rite on weekly PPX
  • #10,651
  • Jan 30, 2012 8:15pm Jan 30, 2012 8:15pm
Quoting danc
the low was not a paticularly strong pivot ..

Forgot to mention Index..Ud currently topped out approx 11 hrs ago rite on weekly PPX
I'm not expecting too much eu weakness in the near future, maybe back to 1.30ish at worst. The dollar index still looks weak to me.
AU is not part of the dollar index though, I am shorting it based off au, ea and equity charts.
  • #10,652
  • Edited 6:23am Jan 31, 2012 5:50am | Edited 6:23am
Originally Posted by danc
Interesting post re index and one i play with all the time...with mixed success..one thing i do know 90% of tyme it must change good direction... off a week or mth or 1/4 point.. as per Amyc on her journal..i hve recently added fibo and especialy ext fibo points.. especialy 1618 and 200..which gives me more confidence of turning point.. the current low all these point came to gether..for me work in progress....
the low was not a paticularly strong pivot ..

Forgot to mention Index..Ud currently topped out approx 11 hrs ago rite on weekly PPX

Hi danc

Thankyou. the point you shared from Amyc in her journal is interesting.

A big THANKYOU to Amyc.

look at the following 4 charts.
Looking at Jan 13th for USD index, AUD and EUR on 1 hr charts you can see an interesting spike on all three on the same 1 hr candle.

the USD index high was at 81.77. Just 23 pips away from the 3 quarterly high.

by the way, please take a look at this post.

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...05#post4400105

In Franks newest book in the last chapter titled Forex and the dollar index is where I have been reading this week.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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  • #10,653
  • Jan 31, 2012 8:09pm Jan 31, 2012 8:09pm
Slight H4 divergence (RSI) on GU
  • #10,654
  • Feb 2, 2012 7:14pm Feb 2, 2012 7:14pm
USD.. index still trading below weekly mid.. but noticed the low was off pivot 50% support line or almost..day and 4 hr looking like basing patten to me.. agures well for hier ground and some shorts..a close tonite above weekly mid would put it nexts week mid below close.. and notice CCI and RSI.. day and 4 hr looking strong to hi side.. Just my thoughts of course..
  • #10,655
  • Feb 3, 2012 4:01am Feb 3, 2012 4:01am
Something to keep an eye on. GU channel. Watch for breaks/re-test
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  • #10,656
  • Feb 3, 2012 10:47am Feb 3, 2012 10:47am
short 1.0773 based on PA reaching the daily highs and 3 weekly highs

Also USD dollar index is currently above daily mid point, if it closes above the mid point and opens next week above the new daily mid point then I will hold this trade a few days. AU may still go a little higher from here. see how it goes.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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Click to Enlarge Name: aud daily highs.jpg Size: 92 KB
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  • #10,657
  • Feb 6, 2012 8:36am Feb 6, 2012 8:36am
closed my AU short for +75 pips. AU does not look like it is going down any more.

Long AU at 1.0692
Long EU at 1.3037

I think the daily mid point at 1.0695 has held as support on AU.
And I think the daily lows at 1.3031 have held as support for EU.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: aud daily.jpg Size: 79 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: eur daily.jpg Size: 81 KB
  • #10,658
  • Feb 9, 2012 5:22pm Feb 9, 2012 5:22pm
Quoting ianlikesgolf
closed my AU short for +75 pips. AU does not look like it is going down any more.

Long AU at 1.0692
Long EU at 1.3037

I think the daily mid point at 1.0695 has held as support on AU.
And I think the daily lows at 1.3031 have held as support for EU.
Hi, Ian. I do something similar on a spreadsheet. Where did you get the indicator? Would it be possible for you to post/share it? Thanks.
  • #10,659
  • Feb 9, 2012 6:52pm Feb 9, 2012 6:52pm
Sorry havent posted in a bit. I did a lot of scalping this morning on EU. I am looking for tihs piv target to the north right now....
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eu.jpg Size: 136 KB
  • #10,660
  • Feb 9, 2012 7:00pm Feb 9, 2012 7:00pm
Also, watching for an NU RSI crossover
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