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Auction Market Theory and Market Profile

  • #4,221
  • Feb 9, 2012 1:29am Feb 9, 2012 1:29am
  •  s7c
  • | Joined Mar 2011 | Status: try and fail but don't fail to try | 289 Posts
Quoting Evak
LOL...i am working in Tokyo for this month & i thought I may have woken up too early today....& sydney did my moves......
you must have an interesting job, seems like you travel allot...
back to trading, personally i would have liked a test of references somewhere near by frankfurt open and confirmation at start of london. by the way i see the relation between frankfurt&london kind of the same as NYBOT open & NYSE open...
yesterday we brought the weekly POC higher, so the fairest price perception changed. i don't like this asia move as i would have credited an up move continuation if we balanced first...
what do you think?
  • #4,222
  • Feb 9, 2012 2:32am Feb 9, 2012 2:32am
London Open seems to have rejected price from yesterday's VAL (and high) with nice volume.... a responsive buying tail here would be soooo helpful...
let's see if it goes on.....

EDIT: London seems to be Open/Test/Drive too... and daily seems to build consensus above yesterday high..
Is this a right thought?
  • #4,223
  • Feb 9, 2012 3:25am Feb 9, 2012 3:25am
Quoting Aztrader2
London Open seems to have rejected price from yesterday's VAL (and high) with nice volume.... a responsive buying tail here would be soooo helpful...
let's see if it goes on.....

EDIT: London seems to be Open/Test/Drive too... and daily seems to build consensus above yesterday high..
Is this a right thought?
request:Attaching the chart could been more helpfull
If it was easy, everyone would do it.
  • #4,224
  • Feb 9, 2012 3:29am Feb 9, 2012 3:29am
Quoting santoshdts
request:Attaching the chart could been more helpfull
Here you go bro...
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  • #4,225
  • Edited 6:42am Feb 9, 2012 4:03am | Edited 6:42am
Damn... took my SL @ about +25 pips....
Anyway.... better than nothing.....

The hard thing is how to manage a good trade....(if one trails too thight can miss big moves...if trails too large can lose great part of profit)
As London profile cancelled initial responsive buying tail, printing back into yesterday VA...it was too late....
Actually is retracing up but should go down (at least for a little more)..?

I'll stay away from market today as I'm still not so skilled, and there will be some News (EU bid rate, ECB conference, etc...) which could increase too much volatility....
Better go back to the books.....
  • #4,226
  • Feb 9, 2012 8:28am Feb 9, 2012 8:28am
Quoting Aztrader2
Sessions open times are driving me crazy...... I'm GMT+1... and, as you see from my chart (upper left) Tokyo was open......

Anyway...trade is @BE now .... TP 1.3350 Trailing Stop 50 pip
nice trade none the less. Mine from earlier yesterday was stopped out at BE . Note however that Tokyo opens at 9AM local time, 0 UTC, 7PM eastern. i guess that hour before (8AM tokyo time) can be considered the electronic pre-market.

This is the best market clock i've seen - it was posted in here previously.
http://www.stocktime.ru/en/index.html
Change is the only constant
  • #4,227
  • Feb 9, 2012 8:35am Feb 9, 2012 8:35am
unfortunately i was stopped out at BE on both my ES and EU trades overnight...such is the nature of trading i guess. I had lower references where I could have place stops, but decided to keep them tight given the location of my trades.

my current thoughts:

ES very close to quarterly VAH (right chart). not the time to enter a long if not already in. patience is the key now.

EU still has upside room, up to multi-month VAL as indicated on the left multi week merge chart.

In both cases, overnight shakeout should have cleared the longs to make room for upside continuation.
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Change is the only constant
  • #4,228
  • Feb 9, 2012 8:40am Feb 9, 2012 8:40am
Quoting tgwhbb
nice trade none the less. Mine from earlier yesterday was stopped out at BE . Note however that Tokyo opens at 9AM local time, 0 UTC, 7PM eastern. i guess that hour before (8AM tokyo time) can be considered the electronic pre-market.

This is the best market clock i've seen - it was posted in here previously.
http://www.stocktime.ru/en/index.html
According to above site NY Opens @ 14:35 GMT Approx. which is around 09:35 NY time,
but as per http://forex.timezoneconverter.com The opening time is considered at 08:00 Local time.. then its around 13:00 GMT

Iam bit confused here to which time to sync with broker to get better data..

Hope somebody can help me on this..

regards
If it was easy, everyone would do it.
  • #4,229
  • Feb 9, 2012 8:52am Feb 9, 2012 8:52am
Quoting santoshdts
According to above site NY Opens @ 14:35 GMT Approx. which is around 09:35 NY time,
but as per http://forex.timezoneconverter.com The opening time is considered at 08:00 Local time.. then its around 13:00 GMT

Iam bit confused here to which time to sync with broker to get better data..

Hope somebody can help me on this..

regards
it again comes down to preference. I prefer using the CBOT times (futures market, and NYSE hours) for NY pit sessions. That means 9:30 AM eastern/ 14:30 UTC. However, there is the notion of "pre" market which can be considered from 8 AM eastern. I find using profiles starting at 9:30 give clearer picture of the market.
Change is the only constant
  • #4,230
  • Feb 9, 2012 9:45am Feb 9, 2012 9:45am
  •  s7c
  • | Joined Mar 2011 | Status: try and fail but don't fail to try | 289 Posts
i find strange this 2 low conviction days in the middle of the week. not even RF is able to gauge the sentiment, what i fond interesting is the range extension on london&ny was made just on down side. i wanted to open a long call on SPY but it doesn't seems a good idea at this time anymore...
  • #4,231
  • Feb 9, 2012 9:56am Feb 9, 2012 9:56am
Quoting s7c
i find strange this 2 low conviction days in the middle of the week. not even RF is able to gauge the sentiment, what i fond interesting is the range extension on london&ny was made just on down side. i wanted to open a long call on SPY but it doesn't seems a good idea at this time anymore...
ES today likely a LLB i think. Potentially it's going to fill the gap from last week's breakout (LUA). quarterly VAH hit overnight, therefore higher probability it will be revisited.
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Change is the only constant
  • #4,232
  • Feb 9, 2012 10:07am Feb 9, 2012 10:07am
Not so bad in the morning for me since Tokyo, but thereafter, I was primary trading the daily Balance profile base on UK start time. Uk open above value with poor conviction, drop towards the VAL of this profile just prior to US electronic open....I reverse my trade to long here after short hedge down, right on the VAL.

Current profile developement suggest a poor high but we have marginal minus development below VAL....

Initial risk was 16p, exposure reduce on 3300 with a 53p....wild day....

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  • #4,233
  • Feb 9, 2012 11:21am Feb 9, 2012 11:21am
missed the first entry this morning on EU. long on pullback in E. risk 7p. let's see how this goes... notice E period is low volume test of yesterday's high (VSA). A break above E period is needed to confirm - again VSA. for MP, a break above E also represents a break above developing control for NY session.
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Change is the only constant
  • #4,234
  • Feb 9, 2012 12:29pm Feb 9, 2012 12:29pm
Quoting tgwhbb
ES today likely a LLB i think. Potentially it's going to fill the gap from last week's breakout (LUA). quarterly VAH hit overnight, therefore higher probability it will be revisited.
ha! i guess not an LLB...
Change is the only constant
  • #4,235
  • Feb 9, 2012 12:56pm Feb 9, 2012 12:56pm
  •  s7c
  • | Joined Mar 2011 | Status: try and fail but don't fail to try | 289 Posts
Quoting tgwhbb
missed the first entry this morning on EU. long on pullback in E. risk 7p. let's see how this goes... notice E period is low volume test of yesterday's high (VSA). A break above E period is needed to confirm - again VSA. for MP, a break above E also represents a break above developing control for NY session.
personally i don't find that test relevant. we are just below overnight high, if we were above it would have test the absorption volume probably but in this case what is testing? even if it was confirmed i wouldn't have take it...
you could say it's testing the london's poc and the NY IBL, but considering the location and the background for me it's not enough.
i didn't find a potential trade since yesterday but i didn't take that short, didn't liked how auction rotation worked. today i really didn't find a trade to take, i was closed but every time something happened. i don't have the evak skills and inner strength yet...
  • #4,236
  • Feb 9, 2012 1:19pm Feb 9, 2012 1:19pm
Got some eye candy in here son, nice charts
  • #4,237
  • Feb 9, 2012 7:39pm Feb 9, 2012 7:39pm
Quoting s7c
personally i don't find that test relevant. we are just below overnight high, if we were above it would have test the absorption volume probably but in this case what is testing? even if it was confirmed i wouldn't have take it...
you could say it's testing the london's poc and the NY IBL, but considering the location and the background for me it's not enough.
i didn't find a potential trade since yesterday but i didn't take that short, didn't liked how auction rotation worked. today i really didn't find a trade to take, i was closed but every...
good insight, thanks! In fact i closed the trade when the test high wasn't broken in the following 2 bars.
Change is the only constant
  • #4,238
  • Feb 9, 2012 8:45pm Feb 9, 2012 8:45pm
My 2 cents -LUA1 and LUA2. It will complete the LUA1 first and then it can be range back to 1.32XX area.
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  • #4,239
  • Feb 9, 2012 9:08pm Feb 9, 2012 9:08pm
robin mesch outlook for february. no EU analysis, but still great info to learn how she interprets the charts.

http://www.cmegroup.com/education/fi...K-FEB-2012.pdf
Change is the only constant
  • #4,240
  • Feb 10, 2012 12:48am Feb 10, 2012 12:48am
Quoting tgwhbb
robin mesch outlook for february. no EU analysis, but still great info to learn how she interprets the charts.

http://www.cmegroup.com/education/fi...K-FEB-2012.pdf
So you all guys seems to be great trader.... just because you read Robin's outlook....


Seriously speakin' I just don't understand how she merges the profiles....
The report is from Feb. 1th..
Can someone explain to me what periods are the three different areas highlighted? I.e. The first one is the big merge corresponding to the period evidenced on the chart...and the secon & Third are last two monts? or weeks?

Thanks
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