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Auction Market Theory and Market Profile

  • #4,201
  • Feb 8, 2012 9:39am Feb 8, 2012 9:39am
Quoting s7c
hmmm, not sure what's happening...but from what i understand in order to facilitate any trade up further, the market needs to come to balance. seems like the price is not fair for new buyers.
having a non trend day type, i want to wait for the pit session IB to be established and get short somewhere at the days high if see the upper range extension is doomed to failure.
any ideas?
I think you have a great plan! and I agree with your analysis. The 24h open, (asia) is the line in the sand for me. If price cant stay above the the 24h opening price, to me speaks volumes.
Markets are not efficient, rather they are effective - Jones
  • #4,202
  • Feb 8, 2012 9:46am Feb 8, 2012 9:46am
looks to me like both ES and EU are overbought. A LLB would be good now to flush out those late weak longs.

took small longs on ES and EU at NY open when break of London overnight did not occur. immediately set SL to BE when tops were not taken out. currently one timeframing down.

EU support zone is 3190-3220
ES support zone is 1325 - 1332 (gap that still needs to be filled.)
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Change is the only constant
  • #4,203
  • Feb 8, 2012 10:06am Feb 8, 2012 10:06am
I will like to thank you guys for helping me out with my crash problem, Aztrader2 i like you thank you because your solution worked for me, i had to re-install my MT4 and everything was fine, thank you soooo much i am grateful. Thank you.
D labour of a fool wearieth him cos he doesn't know how to enta d city
  • #4,204
  • Edited 11:16am Feb 8, 2012 11:02am | Edited 11:16am
Quoting tgwhbb
looks to me like both ES and EU are overbought. A LLB would be good now to flush out those late weak longs.

took small longs on ES and EU at NY open when break of London overnight did not occur. immediately set SL to BE when tops were not taken out. currently one timeframing down.

EU support zone is 3190-3220
ES support zone is 1325 - 1332 (gap that still needs to be filled.)
EU support hit, and bounced. 3220 is also multi-month VAH (and previous anomaly swing high) which looks like it is holding. have a long in place as shown.

a word on VSA. note the ultra high volume on the last 2 30-min down bars. Both closed in the middle, on higher volume than previous bars. signalling potential buyers at the previous VAH. Responsive buyers at the right place. VSA + MP can be very powerful.

EDIT: SL to BE and letting it run. target is previous multi-month VAL (top of current LUA) as marked at top of chart (1.3380 area)
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Change is the only constant
  • #4,205
  • Feb 8, 2012 11:25am Feb 8, 2012 11:25am
Quoting tgwhbb

EU support zone is 3190-3220
ES support zone is 1325 - 1332 (gap that still needs to be filled.)
ES found support at weekly control, and repaired the anomaly from yesterday as well. long as shown. i'd like to see a close at end of NY session in overnight VA. Else i will consider closing it. but ultimate target is still 1354 area
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Change is the only constant
  • #4,206
  • Feb 8, 2012 11:33am Feb 8, 2012 11:33am
evak, would you consider yesterday's NY EU session a 3i day?

It opened above Monday's NY high, found initiative buyers at the open, initiative extension in C period (on my chart), and initiative TPO's.
Change is the only constant
  • #4,207
  • Feb 8, 2012 11:40am Feb 8, 2012 11:40am
Todays TK & UK is pretty flat on both extremes (lack of minus developement). This indicate lack of other time-frame participation...mainly the locals - so the maxim here is to "stay out till u see a shakeout".. NY D period see price explore into lower extremes. Since the trend is up & with poor high after yesterday break out. Expectation would be for price to seek an unfair low point off the upper distribution to provide a trade location for a long.

Two reference here are the 27th Jan high & yesterday NY aunction point. Both of which in close proxity.

Trade was taken after a initial response off the these levels...initial risk was a fix 15p...

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #4,208
  • Feb 8, 2012 11:44am Feb 8, 2012 11:44am
Quoting tgwhbb
evak, would you consider yesterday's NY EU session a 3i day?

It opened above Monday's NY high, found initiative buyers at the open, initiative extension in C period (on my chart), and initiative TPO's.
Yes...
  • #4,209
  • Feb 8, 2012 12:08pm Feb 8, 2012 12:08pm
Quoting Evak
Yes...
Just a clarification on 3i US Session yesterday.. We are Missing Buying Extremes & as per Text book Initiative buying extremes should also be present on a 3i session..
can a double print in A & B periods be termed as Exterems/Buying Tails?
Please correct me if wrong..
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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If it was easy, everyone would do it.
  • #4,210
  • Feb 8, 2012 12:26pm Feb 8, 2012 12:26pm
Quoting santoshdts
Just a clarification on 3i US Session yesterday.. We are Missing Buying Extremes & as per Text book Initiative buying extremes should also be present on a 3i session..
can a double print in A & B periods be termed as Exterems/Buying Tails?
Please correct me if wrong..
The gap from the prior US session is the buying extreme.
Change is the only constant
  • #4,211
  • Feb 8, 2012 1:00pm Feb 8, 2012 1:00pm
Quoting santoshdts
Just a clarification on 3i US Session yesterday.. We are Missing Buying Extremes & as per Text book Initiative buying extremes should also be present on a 3i session..
can a double print in A & B periods be termed as Exterems/Buying Tails?
Please correct me if wrong..
If I understood it right.... the answer could be in this Evak's post......

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...55#post5357355
  • #4,212
  • Feb 8, 2012 1:00pm Feb 8, 2012 1:00pm
Quoting lordgbengs
I will like to thank you guys for helping me out with my crash problem, Aztrader2 i like you thank you because your solution worked for me, i had to re-install my MT4 and everything was fine, thank you soooo much i am grateful. Thank you.
You're welcome bro.....
  • #4,213
  • Feb 8, 2012 1:08pm Feb 8, 2012 1:08pm
I just want to bring up "context". These original concepts are based on the markets in the books. Not Spot Forex, so we adapt. By breaking these concepts into sessions, gives us the ability to apply AMT methodology, in our own environment. However, as you trade at that intraday level, it gets more subjective. For example IB times. It depends on your interpretation of a session open, there are no rules so there is no wrong or right answer. Some will use a pit open, NYSE open, etc. I use NYBOT open. My previous us session opened at @ 1.3109 my IB range was 85 pips. Its all your Perception. Trade what your chart tells you, dont trade someone elses perception. If you understand the rules, it doesnt matter how you slice & dice profiles. I always take the intraday, sessions with a little grain of salt, as its trade action is within the confines of a larger tf profile, some what of a vacuum, a major move in, say the european session might not do anything to move the VA on the daily profile, so from the daily perspective nothings changed. If nothings changed, how signifcant is it? Just thought some thoughts.
Markets are not efficient, rather they are effective - Jones
  • #4,214
  • Edited Feb 9, 2012 12:15am Feb 8, 2012 5:32pm | Edited Feb 9, 2012 12:15am
Long on EU coz it seemed to me an OPEN-TEST-DRIVE... bouncing (as yesterday) @ previous WIBH and Tuesday VAL...
Should have entered before...as Dalton says...

Let's see how it goes....

Edit: should be confirmed, coz price went back to yesterday's VA
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  • #4,215
  • Feb 8, 2012 7:13pm Feb 8, 2012 7:13pm
Quoting Aztrader2
Long on EU coz it seemed to me an OPEN-TEST-DRIVE... bouncing (as yesterday) @ previous WIBH and Tuesday VAL...
Should have entered before...as Dalton says...

Let's see how it goes....

Edit: should be confirmed, coz price went back to yesterday's VA
food for thought, that open-test-drive was before Tokyo open. it was during Sydney IB. just my opinion, but trading sydney open is tricky IMO due to low liquidity.
Change is the only constant
  • #4,216
  • Feb 8, 2012 10:23pm Feb 8, 2012 10:23pm
Quoting Aztrader2
If I understood it right.... the answer could be in this Evak's post......

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...55#post5357355
Tks for clearing my doubt..
If it was easy, everyone would do it.
  • #4,217
  • Feb 8, 2012 11:54pm Feb 8, 2012 11:54pm
Quoting tgwhbb
food for thought, that open-test-drive was before Tokyo open. it was during Sydney IB. just my opinion, but trading sydney open is tricky IMO due to low liquidity.

Sessions open times are driving me crazy...... I'm GMT+1... and, as you see from my chart (upper left) Tokyo was open......

Anyway...trade is @BE now .... TP 1.3350 Trailing Stop 50 pip
  • #4,218
  • Feb 8, 2012 11:56pm Feb 8, 2012 11:56pm
Quoting santoshdts
Just a clarification on 3i US Session yesterday.. We are Missing Buying Extremes & as per Text book Initiative buying extremes should also be present on a 3i session..
can a double print in A & B periods be termed as Exterems/Buying Tails?
Please correct me if wrong..
A tail would have been nice & obvious, but one have to be flexible & understand the essesnce of such a move instead....e.g.

-is the price price trading above or below value, & if price still still going up is it still attracting more buyers?
- Even if it is not a single print, did price progress upwards one-TF up on the 1st few hours of it's initiatives or did it stop?

So how u qualify is up to your preference really but the point is to understand price action in relation to advertise price & the given response to that price, taken into context of coz...
  • #4,219
  • Feb 9, 2012 12:02am Feb 9, 2012 12:02am
Quoting Aztrader2
Sessions open times are driving me crazy...... I'm GMT+1... and, as you see from my chart (upper left) Tokyo was open......

Anyway...trade is @BE now .... TP 1.3350 Trailing Stop 50 pip
LOL...i am working in Tokyo for this month & i thought I may have woken up too early today....& sydney did my moves......
  • #4,220
  • Feb 9, 2012 12:20am Feb 9, 2012 12:20am
you guys... having fun here and had nice discussion
i'm far away and jealous

keep up a good work guys
...
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