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SwingSpot-Reloaded!

  • #61
  • Edited 7:07am Feb 8, 2012 6:45am | Edited 7:07am
hi traders. along with H1, i'm also demoing 30mn, eu, gu, uchf, with these settings: swingspots conservative 400 - 300 - 20, swing exits 30 -12 -8. please note that these settings are rather arbitrary and not thoroughly researched - i'll go over them more accurately over the weekend.

the swing spots boxes seem to appear at same time as H1, but exits are earlier as swing are shorter. also, since candle closes earlier sometimes entries are at better price, although i would think this will avarage out in the long run.

gbp 30mn basket of 7 entries (should have been 8, but had to restart platform and missed it) is closed with 100% trades in profit. see attached. my h1 trades are still running. i wish we could have an alarm added when boxes and swings are formed. another issue i need to solve is leaving my laptop running 24 hours a day 5 days a week. vps might be the best solution when i go live.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 30_mn_basket.png Size: 24 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: gu_basket.png Size: 86 KB
  • #62
  • Feb 8, 2012 9:09am Feb 8, 2012 9:09am
I wrote my own EA and backtested a few years of data at the 5 minute chart. As you can see it works out nicely at the beginning but at the end we don't earn anything for a few months and long trends are a real problem
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: StrategyTester ohne Heiken mit CCI.gif Size: 10 KB
  • #63
  • Edited 10:02am Feb 8, 2012 9:23am | Edited 10:02am
Good results so far on demo; just a start; need more time; Eg chart showing two wins and my statement of trades so far. Finally, attached my chart profile.

Thanks mer071898. I've learned alot following along with you through the years.

Steve
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 1h...results.gif Size: 18 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: DetailedStatement.gif Size: 5 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: results so far.jpg Size: 99 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: chart profile.jpg Size: 179 KB
  • #64
  • Edited Feb 9, 2012 7:38am Feb 8, 2012 9:43am | Edited Feb 9, 2012 7:38am
Quoting Kilian19
I wrote my own EA and backtested a few years of data at the 5 minute chart. As you can see it works out nicely at the beginning but at the end we don't earn anything for a few months and long trends are a real problem
i doubt 5mn can give good results. best is H1, with swing exit, not opposite color box exit.

***eu 30mn sell basket closed near 25 level, before candle closed, with 100% trades in pofit. H1 still running, no swing yet.

******au H1 sell basket closed with 100% trade profitable. gu basket also gave an exit, but i didn't hear the alarm, was sleeping.

***********gu H1 basket closed, 100% trades in profit, but badly managed, i'm afraid. got to figure out what the best solution is if initial exit is missed.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eu.png Size: 20 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: 30mn_eu_basket.png Size: 32 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: au.png Size: 20 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: au_basket.png Size: 39 KB
Attached Image
  • #65
  • Feb 9, 2012 5:50pm Feb 9, 2012 5:50pm
testing demo accounts, and i'm really excited for the EA, that can be very powerfull strategy.

best regards.
  • #66
  • Feb 10, 2012 3:43am Feb 10, 2012 3:43am
hi. can someone please tell me how to add an alarm to the swingspot conservative indicator when a box appears? thank you.
  • #67
  • Feb 10, 2012 7:02am Feb 10, 2012 7:02am
H1 setups on eu and usdchf, both baskets closed with 100% trades in profit
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eu.png Size: 24 KB
Attached Image
  • #68
  • Feb 10, 2012 1:14pm Feb 10, 2012 1:14pm
Mer, there's seems to be a little confusion as to which settings are the true default settings. Would you mind updating the master template and reposting? Thx.
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To improve is to change. To perfect, is to change often.
  • #69
  • Feb 10, 2012 4:19pm Feb 10, 2012 4:19pm
Scott, I'm trying to get a handle on this system...

This pic show G/U H1. I've highlighted the last big run. There are somewhere between 30 and 35 red boxes showing -- it's hard to tell some of them apart.

My question is, exactly how did you manage this basket? Did you take all 35 trades? How did you size them going from 1st to last? What was the final lot size? Did you come out a winner, or did you margin out? Etc...???
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 30.gif Size: 20 KB
To improve is to change. To perfect, is to change often.
  • #70
  • Edited 4:55am Feb 11, 2012 4:35am | Edited 4:55am
Quoting forexhard
Scott, I'm trying to get a handle on this system...

This pic show G/U H1. I've highlighted the last big run. There are somewhere between 30 and 35 red boxes showing -- it's hard to tell some of them apart.

My question is, exactly how did you manage this basket? Did you take all 35 trades? How did you size them going from 1st to last? What was the final lot size? Did you come out a winner, or did you margin out? Etc...???
correct settings:
SWINGSPOT CONSERVATIVE: 300 225 15
SWING EXIT 36 15 9
EA SWINGSPOT CONSERVATIVE 300 225 15

attached is the correct template. if you use the ea, make sure you ONLY USE IT FOR ENTRIES. exit manually when swing appears.

if i may answer your question, with the tighter settings we use, exits were provided during the run. please see my chart. also, please keep in mind that since the swing exit indicator repaints, some swings can erase previous ones which would have given you an earlier exit.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gu_run.png Size: 29 KB
Attached File(s)
File Type: tpl swingspots h1 with ea.tpl   3 KB | 371 downloads
  • #71
  • Feb 11, 2012 7:42am Feb 11, 2012 7:42am
Bubola, thanks for the help. Definitely makes more sense now.
To improve is to change. To perfect, is to change often.
  • #72
  • Feb 11, 2012 8:45am Feb 11, 2012 8:45am
Quoting forexhard
Bubola, thanks for the help. Definitely makes more sense now.
glad to be of help. this seems to be one of the most profitable strategies i ever came across. the more i test it, the more i love it. the only problem i'm having is lack of sleep: i have alarms on 3 pairs, set where i think a swing will appear, so my dreams are often interrupted i hope the ea can be adjusted soon to manage exits as well.


i forgot to add the current trade % exits parameters we use:

1-5 trades- 90%
6-10 trades- 85%
11-15 trades- 80%
16-20 trades- 75%
21-30 trades- 65%
31-40 trades- 60%
41-60 trades- 55%
  • #73
  • Feb 11, 2012 10:07am Feb 11, 2012 10:07am
Mer, apologies for being a distraction earlier. I had read the thread twice, but each time I missed the same 2 posts that held the info I was looking for. I don't know if it happens on your PC screen or not, but on mine Page3 is scaled improperly due to the charts Squalou posted, and that caused me to miss some things.

Anyway, I think I'm all caught up now.

And since it looks like you've got an exit strategy that you like, I'd like to bring up entries again if I might...

I am allergic to long runs of 20 or 30 entries myself. But I would also like to see faster action than a 4-hr chart gives. I'd like to trade from H1 or even M30 with this strategy, but cautiously and with limited DD.

That said, please consider an algorithym that takes into consideration (1) the last N clusters of trades, and (2) divides them by the next N value.

For example, say the last 10 trade clusters had a total of 210 trades, or an average of 21 trades per cluster (1). Next, divide the 21 by .33 (one-third) (2). This leaves us with the value of 14. What this means in practical terms, is that the EA will overlook the first 14 possible trade openings before opening its first one, in the hope of limiting unnecessary exposure as we build our baskets. This algo is based on recent chart history, actual recent clusters.

(Note: Both values would be User defined. It might just as easily be the last 25 clusters added up and then divided by .10%, and so on. It would be open to everyone's individual taste for risk.)

I happen to like this idea very much. It fits my trading style, in that I am slow to pull the trigger, and when I do I want to have a good reason why. This does that for me.

What do you think, Mer?
To improve is to change. To perfect, is to change often.
  • #74
  • Feb 11, 2012 1:40pm Feb 11, 2012 1:40pm
Quoting bubola
i doubt 5mn can give good results. best is H1, with swing exit, not opposite color box exit.
Hmm if you looked at my image it shows you a 300% balance after ~3000 trades I would call that good results, but and I am not happy with the drawdown and the results during the last few months.
Anyways I am working on this strategy and it looks promising even though I will add a filter for entry. Since this shall not be discussed here I will I will open my own thread.

Btw PSAR gives some great exit signals ;-)
  • #75
  • Edited 12:37pm Feb 12, 2012 11:57am | Edited 12:37pm
2010 was not a year for the faint of heart, with drawdowns close to 1000 pips, both on gu and eu. any swing over 300 pips that doesn't give us some type of exit (be it the swing, be it simply basket overall profit) can turn into a disaster.

oddly, gu behaved better, with only 1 instance of 900 pips and 1 of 700ish against us that couldn't be solved with our standard % table. if one were to set a basket BE line (see i-be indy on post 1) and decide that for any swing over 300 (or 400, or whatever), anything above the BE line is a good enough exit, we would save our butts.

but the example in the chart is a true horror story, and what's more there was another one from july 1st to aug 6th. eyeballing the chart, i don't see 1 point where the basket would be profitable. maybe forexhard's algo idea would be the answer for this.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: horror_story.png Size: 57 KB
  • #76
  • Edited 3:37pm Feb 12, 2012 3:04pm | Edited 3:37pm
Sorry guys, I've had a lot on my plate this week so I apologize for not responding to the thread. You have to understand that these systems that are posted are only guidelines for you to follow. You can always lower the percentages to close out your baskets earlier or if you are worried about the drawdown and hate incurring long runs, then change the eintDepth3 input to 1000+ and that will lower the number of boxes even more.

Look at pic 1 below, the left chart has a setting of 300 and the right chart has a setting of 1000. Setting the depth higher eliminates around 17-18 trades at the beginning of the string. Now, the first two swings can be closed out at points A and B and the remaining string can be closed out at either point C or D, depending on the equity in the account or how your close out percentages are set. The only disadvantage to adjusting the depth is you completely lose out on some of the swings altogether (pic 2).

But if you are like me, I keep the initial lots very low to start (.01) and only increase my lots by .01 lots until I hit 20 levels. After that, I increase the lot sizes by a larger factor every 5-10 levels up to 60. That way if you have to close out a super long string at maybe only 25% profitability, the higher factored lot sizes will still outweigh the negative side of the string.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: entry and stop.jpg Size: 271 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: entry and stop 2.jpg Size: 277 KB
  • #77
  • Feb 12, 2012 3:18pm Feb 12, 2012 3:18pm
Here are 3 templates you can use to compare charts. SwingSpot Aggressive with an eintDepth3 setting of 300, SwingSpot Moderate with an eintDepth3 setting of 600, and SwingSpot Conservative with an eintDepth3 setting of 1000. All use the same Swing exit settings of 36-15-9.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: entry and stop.jpg Size: 216 KB
Attached File(s)
File Type: tpl swingspot reloaded aggressive.tpl   3 KB | 534 downloads
File Type: tpl swingspot reloaded moderate.tpl   3 KB | 540 downloads
File Type: tpl swingspot reloaded conservative.tpl   3 KB | 539 downloads
  • #78
  • Feb 12, 2012 3:23pm Feb 12, 2012 3:23pm
hi mer. personally i'm ok with original entry settings, but i nevertheless want to have a plan B in case an occasional adverse run like the one i posted occurs. i tried inserting your i-breakeven indic on the strategy runner, but it doesn't work, so it's very hard to backtest. in conclusion, for now i will keep things as they are for drawdowns of 400 pips or less on gu, and then switch to an overall basket profit for the larger ones.
  • #79
  • Edited 4:05pm Feb 12, 2012 3:41pm | Edited 4:05pm
Quote
hi mer. personally i'm ok with original entry settings, but i nevertheless want to have a plan B in case an occasional adverse run like the one i posted occurs. i tried inserting your i-breakeven indic on the strategy runner, but it doesn't work, so it's very hard to backtest. in conclusion, for now i will keep things as they are for drawdowns of 400 pips or less on gu, and then switch to an overall basket profit for the larger ones.
Not a problem, you use whatever you feel comfortable using. I have guys using this on daily timeframes trading in the direction of the positive swap only and a few guys are trying it on 15 minute charts. The i-breakeven indicator will only work on active trades, so it is useless on strategy tester.
  • #80
  • Edited 5:07am Feb 13, 2012 4:11am | Edited 5:07am
Quoting mer071898
*** I've updated post #1 with the SwingSpot Reloaded indicator and Swing Exit indicator. The SwingSpot Reloaded indicator is now a modified Semaphor indicator that is much more stable when scrolling back through the charts. We've also adjusted the Swing exit settings to 36-15-9 to allow for quicker exits. The i-breakeven is there to let you know at what point the basket will be at breakeven. An EA is currently being worked on and I will updated post #1 upon it's completion***
[/left]
you just made my day, mer, thank you.

i have a suggestion for those looking to filter out trades, expecially on lower time frames. it revolves around swing balance points. let's assume we have a current swing up, and we are starting to get red boxes. you can take only the boxes that appear after a permanence of, let's say, 5 candles to the RIGHT of the swing exit trendline. you will obviously miss many moves, but the ones you take will be stronger.
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