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  • #1,881
  • Feb 8, 2012 1:48am Feb 8, 2012 1:48am
ok, im long with my real account in gbpusd playing 0.1 lots.

if this entry is wrong, i bet twice: 0,2 lost.

http://i44.tinypic.com/v3ekxu.png
MY telegram channel: https://t.me/https://t.me/tnavieurusd
  • #1,882
  • Feb 8, 2012 2:38am Feb 8, 2012 2:38am
tnavi, I will not respond to your posts until I know for sure that you have read the thread over carefully and have performed the basic exercises that are descibed in the first 3 pages of this thread. But so far you do not seem to have done this. So I can not support what you are doing.

So please, start over from the beginning and carefully read the thread. Your answers are already in there.

Good luck.

FxH
To improve is to change. To perfect, is to change often.
  • #1,883
  • Feb 8, 2012 3:49am Feb 8, 2012 3:49am
Good morning folks

I'm seeing this CZ too, plus it's broken out now on my chart. I'm taking a long punt, seems to be quite a lot of room for movement above this level.

HXT
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  • #1,884
  • Feb 8, 2012 4:02am Feb 8, 2012 4:02am
You can imagine how happy i was to get home from work last night and see this. Took two thrids off where my S/L is now. The entry was actually taken from the CZ just below (out of picture). my remaining .01 lot is sitting on a profit of nearly 160 pips.

I think it's about 3% (3:1 RR). cheers FH, I'm loving this.

HXT

edit ... If I had more time I would post my aud/usd chart, similar story to my gbp/jpy.
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  • #1,885
  • Feb 8, 2012 4:09am Feb 8, 2012 4:09am
[quote=AlienFrog;5319352]Thank you for asking. The main reason this piqued my interest is that I am developing a framework for trading using SSBO, and win/loss ratio is a great statistic to use as a milestone for measuring success.

Interesting Alien Frog!
First post here for me, I will start by thanking everyone specially Forexhard for the generous contribution!

Iīve been trading for 20 years, 10 years Forex, blew a couple of accounts, studied a thousand books...just barely profitable this year...yes, after 20 years!

So much for my introduction.

Like Forexhard mentioned, each person will trade these boxes a little differently.

This is just my 2 cents worth, on positions size.
According to Van Tharp, this is the variable with the biggest impact on performance.
To make this short: I equalize the size of every position (risk), to the cent, regardless of pips to stop, or time frame.You can only do this with brokers like OANDA (no lots, just units).
Iīm not an OANDA fan, donīt think any broker is too honest out there...but they have this nice feature...I test systems, using real money, but risking only 1 Euro...it makes a difference although little, itīs still money...then I adjust to 1% of my account when I feel comfortable with the system..

Cheers...and good trades for everyone..
  • #1,886
  • Feb 8, 2012 6:37am Feb 8, 2012 6:37am
Good to see all of us are waking up to our CZ's being broken

Here's my current trade on E/U
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  • #1,887
  • Feb 8, 2012 6:49am Feb 8, 2012 6:49am
Quoting forexhard
These are the CZ's I live for. 49 M15 bars and still going. Absolutely amazing.
How did that one work out?
Politics is the womb in which war develops.
  • #1,888
  • Feb 8, 2012 7:30am Feb 8, 2012 7:30am
Quoting FiatFap
How did that one work out?
I went long (following the trend) on the breakout but it hit my S/L about an hour later. The CZ is still in play though (in my opinion). I dont think the market has decided yet if it wants to push significantly higher than 1.59 or reject it and fall away.

My gut feeling is that it will break higher again but I dont use my gut feelings to make trading decisions. I expect that theres some 'jitters' about the finalisation of the greek deal which will probably spook the market until theres some clear news. Whatever the news from Greece is (good or bad) it will probably set the direction for some time to come though I wouldn't be surprised if theres a chunk of the 'good news' already priced in. Anyway, thats getting away from the point of pure price action.
  • #1,889
  • Feb 8, 2012 7:34am Feb 8, 2012 7:34am
Quoting forexhard
These are the CZ's I live for. 49 M15 bars and still going. Absolutely amazing.
Hi FH,

I was looking at your CZ and I am curious as to the significance of the box you have drawn within the CZ. Are you simply marking out a tightening range within the CZ?
  • #1,890
  • Feb 8, 2012 7:35am Feb 8, 2012 7:35am
Quoting hxtrader
I went long (following the trend) on the breakout but it hit my S/L about an hour later. The CZ is still in play though (in my opinion). I dont think the market has decided yet if it wants to push significantly higher than 1.59 or reject it and fall away.

My gut feeling is that it will break higher again but I dont use my gut feelings to make trading decisions. I expect that theres some 'jitters' about the finalisation of the greek deal which will probably spook the market until theres some clear news. Whatever the news from Greece is (good or...
Here's some stuff relevant to GBP (http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?p=5366388#post5366388)
Politics is the womb in which war develops.
  • #1,891
  • Feb 8, 2012 10:24am Feb 8, 2012 10:24am
Quoting FiatFap
How did that one work out?
Same chart a few hours later...
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To improve is to change. To perfect, is to change often.
  • #1,892
  • Feb 8, 2012 10:29am Feb 8, 2012 10:29am
But wouldn't you have bought the initial break out.

Expect the GU to now push hard upwards in expectation of GBP high impact events tomorrow. Pairs all then primed for the start of the dollar rally.
Politics is the womb in which war develops.
  • #1,893
  • Feb 8, 2012 10:30am Feb 8, 2012 10:30am
Quoting hxtrader
I went long (following the trend) on the breakout but it hit my S/L about an hour later. The CZ is still in play though (in my opinion). I dont think the market has decided yet if it wants to push significantly higher than 1.59 or reject it and fall away.

My gut feeling is that it will break higher again but I dont use my gut feelings to make trading decisions. I expect that theres some 'jitters' about the finalisation of the greek deal which will probably spook the market until theres some clear news. Whatever the news from Greece is (good or...
See post just above this one. By now I have shown many examples of counter-trend breakouts. It's why I keep saying to keep an open mind and just follow the price and don't concern yourself with anything else. Yes, there will be failed trades. DO NOT call them false breakouts. They are not. It broke out just fine. It just happened to reverse before you could get out with a profit. But as I have said before too, I follow the same semi-Martingale principle that Scott (Mer) does, so I always allow for up to 4 reversals for each CZ.
To improve is to change. To perfect, is to change often.
  • #1,894
  • Feb 8, 2012 10:32am Feb 8, 2012 10:32am
Quoting FiatFap
But wouldn't you have bought the initial break out.

Expect the GU to now push hard upwards in expectation of GBP high impact events tomorrow. Pairs all then primed for the start of the dollar rally.
We cross posted. Answered in my last post as well.
To improve is to change. To perfect, is to change often.
  • #1,895
  • Feb 8, 2012 10:46am Feb 8, 2012 10:46am
Quoting FiatFap
But wouldn't you have bought the initial break out.

Expect the GU to now push hard upwards in expectation of GBP high impact events tomorrow. Pairs all then primed for the start of the dollar rally.
I did go long initially, then went short after getting stopped out. Heres how I played the trade.

my usual lot size is .03 lots. however I was still holding .02 lots from a previous CZ breakout which were well in profit. When the new CZ formed I moved the original trades S/L to the bottom of the new CZ range. When the initial breakout occurred I took a further .01 lot with the S/L at the level mentioned previously. So when the price action took a nosedive it took all .03 lots out (remember I already had profit locked in on .02) so the loss on the .01 was 36 pips.

I then took the short, but because I was no longer holding a position I entered .03 lots (S/L this time at the upper CZ range limit). I placed a TP at 50 pips which was just inside the rising trendline. So my initial loss was .01 x 36 pips and my profit was .03 x 50 pips.

I'm going to investigate Steve Hopwoods MPTM EA which would enable me to have left .01 lots open to gather any further pips if the breakout continues.

FH, I hope you dont feel like I'm hijacking your thread, i'm just very enthusiastic about it.
HXT

by the way, as FH pointed out there were a lot of bars in this CZ(was it 50 in the end?). This indicated to me that when the first breakout stalled at 17 pips or so it wasn't the true breakout (I was imagining the wound elastic band analogy) so when the second breakout occurred I knew there was a better chance it would be more significant as there was so much 'kinetic' energy stored up in the CZ.
  • #1,896
  • Feb 8, 2012 10:51am Feb 8, 2012 10:51am
Have 3 trades closed + 35, 3 long trades open for - 51 pips.
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  • #1,897
  • Feb 8, 2012 10:58am Feb 8, 2012 10:58am
Quoting hxtrader
.....FH, I hope you dont feel like I'm hijacking your thread, i'm just very enthusiastic about it.HXT
Not at all. Go for it. Your posts have an educated/tempered tone. I think after almost 1900 posts we can safely assume that I'm no longer the only experienced SSBO trader. Just follow the core tenants of the system, plus keep away from any outside indicators, and let it rip!
To improve is to change. To perfect, is to change often.
  • #1,898
  • Feb 9, 2012 1:17pm Feb 9, 2012 1:17pm
After a really nice 8000 pip run, it looks like G/U might have found a ceiling. What was Support is now Resistance. It will be fun to watch this and see what develops...
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To improve is to change. To perfect, is to change often.
  • #1,899
  • Feb 9, 2012 6:09pm Feb 9, 2012 6:09pm
well after a slow day today (admittedly I missed an opportunity by not being at my computer for a few hours) things are finally starting to warm up. Will hopefully have time to post some charts tomorrow but for the time being I'm looking at three CZ's just formed in the last hour or so.

EURAUD
AUDCHF
GBPAUD

also, the EURNZD trade I entered yesterday is starting to move. Luckily I wasn't in at the time of that frightening spike downwards.

HXT
  • #1,900
  • Feb 10, 2012 4:12am Feb 10, 2012 4:12am
well I promised some charts and here they are. As usual, I took .03 lots on these and took some profit last night and moved stops to BE + a few. Well on the dawn of a foggy, cold and miserable looking day I still had a smile on my face.... I wonder why.

As I write I am sat on the following
EURAUD .01 @ 95 pips
GBPAUD .01 @ 136 pips
AUDCHF .02 @ 64 pips

I have however given up on silver after being stung 3 times with spreads. Wil do some more homework on it.
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