Take it as it is

Now, as price goes out of its range - we have unbalanced market in our hands.

Trading tactics at unbalanced markets are different. We do not look for trading reversals (as we do when trade inside ranges), but we do look to trade continuations of the move.

it is outside of the idea of this thread... so... But one hint - it is all about System II (yes with irony) thread.

trend hasnt shifted just bottom of the range same goes for some other pairs

some update the market auctioned lower again at the range currently in the middle zone where the trade changes for someone are in dissadvatages there is where whe dont like to trade because our odd are becoming less.

Now what happenend most currencies founded valua on lower ranges where buyers stepped in and agreed to mark price awaya again with the current orderflow. Now whe are at the middle point in market profile they also call it point of control is a place where most volume is traded bears want it down there to shift flow bulls up a fundamental shift can change sentiment and orderflow. Whe dont trade in the middle or whe most have a reason for it it is more a suckers game in the middle.

So what inflection points whe have today:

- Rba statement later on lot of analyst ecpext the rba to cut rates but hey they ananlyst whe are traders.
- The thing is stops are massive above those ranges so a dissapointment would make a huge upmove momentum triggering all the stops.
-Currently retail is like 80% short in the ausie and nzd all fighting the orderflow thats good for us if they wrong because taht gives us momentum when the stops get triggered.

Weh dont have any real important bond auctions for the pig countries what i so 1,2,3 checked only for the core 1s dutch and germany so that might go ok.
https://multimediafiles.kbcgroup.eu/...de8028b26b.pdf.

Fed bernanke.

Whe got bernanke testifying later on this is mayor because everybody look for hints of qe again last time he was dovish by keeping rates low till 2014. What give the market a huge surge to the upside.
Now he only is gonna do qe if the inflation surges or the unemployment doesnt become better. Now with fridays nrs non farm. They where good so people are doubting if whe will get qe imo i think the cpi would be leading because if the fed got some inflation problems they still got qe but maybe whe most wait a bit.

So the reaction friday was massive liquadation in gold thatwhy gold whent friday down gold is sensative for qe rumours. So what can whe look at tommorow is gold for example.

What i do with my current positions my current posistion havent reached first tp the top range but i like to tighter stops and take some take profit before the rba statement reason is if they cut whe could drop and i have no profits .

Here some pictures .

So what do inbetween not much read some maybe get some new trading ideas but most important enjoy the rest markets need time to evolve ( the trade).
Larry Williams sayed it nice in 1 of his videos i seen a long time ago you put in your trade if it is a good 1 according your plan put sl in make sure your r:r is better to have the ods bit more with you then he just goes away and check sometimes the charts. Only put your hard earned money on the table when it is worth it if you have no idea what the market is doing why enter is see so many people do this they have no clue. Thats pure gambling and what is a shame because many do it and i did it in the past aswell. But serious sometimes a trade is to not just be in 1 markets dont run away . Also when you miss 1 yes it happens sometimes dont bother it and especially dont chase it also a common bad habbit.

Here another vid i like

So they didnt cutted rates tons of stops got triggered and the 1.08 option barrier been taking out in the aud/usd the kiwi trade is currently running around 60 pips take something more of and let the rest open as a free ride the initial stop been used on the trade was 32 pips so the first orders has been taking of with 2 r now lets see if the remaining free 1 will be a further runner or not. Time for sleep now again. Watchlist is gold tommorow on the chart above for the rest no plans in taking some if aud breaks the top range and moves away from it with some space whe buy the pullback but whe arent there yet.

Here another vid

Sorry for the interruption, but i think that this post shall be framed by all trades, for real.

This thread deserves way much more love.

Thanks man. Hope it help some new people.


Oke where are whe currently regarding trades nothing changeg allwel the eu and nzd/usd i both have closed most on it i cant be all day around so i want to take some off. Got some side project to do today. The eu gave a 124 pip gain with 34 pip stop with a risk of 0.5% so that a increase gain of 3.6% the nzd/usd was a 32 pip stop with max gain of 74 pips but it took also some of during the way.

tottal increase on both trades are currently 4.1% and the risk was only 1.3% in tottal. Now is still have a verry small exposure open of 0.15% in total for maybe a potential runner i have on both stops at breakeven didnt trailed them so they have a lot of room. Means the nzd has a 74 pip room and the eu 120.

When i will be back before ny or have time i consider to take the gold trade pointed out in previous post. Initial risk on the scout will be 0.1% @1700 i put in pending order with a small stop if you wanna take the same do your own calculation regarding size fr the risk. if it works out i add the remaining 0.4% and otherwise i will be looking for the next area 1680$

I agree. I have really enjoyed reading ingmarforex and VB's posts.
Thanks

Good to hear currently i bought only gold whe didnt reached the level but whe had bernanke giving a speech and he still likes qe no matter what printing is according him good and is good for gold.

I bought gold not at the level mentioned but liked to have a position before the speech. Gold has ussually a positive efffect n bernanke expecially when qe is on the cards so gold traders pit traders or institutions take positions before.

then after the speech the diggest to keep it or not depends on dovish or hawkish bernanke.

Here is the live speech http://www.c-span.org/Events/Ben-Ber...s/10737428014/

On this whole greece thing nothing has been solved yet so eu short could work out at the top of the range. But myself i skip them wanna see eu bit higher for opening shorts allwel i think eu wouldnt make new lows again below the 1.26 or there most be something different fundamentally 14 feb whe have the ecb rate anouncement a rate cut could do it. but now the valau according intrest rates is 1.30 a right valau imo but fundamanetally inbalances could change this. So for me no eu short yet the analyst expect a rate cut of the ecb but whe will see eu around 1.35 would be a nice short if whe get there so far whe are still in a upflow and testing top range again so whe need a fundamental change to break top dealing range or lower 1 anyway there would be a lot of stops above the top range till 1.3250s so abreak of the range could trip stops and surge for some momentum burst.

Hello there, congrats on the thread. I'll be following you :-)

Oke some updates the eu nzd the runners still open the nzd is lagging behind eu did a nice surge in the comments today that the deal will be in thursday. Would this be a rumour to buy and a fact to sell depends if there is no deal thursday. yes the market could selloff on a dissapointment so a thing to write down for thursday. Also the Greece's government is preparing a document with a list ofpainful reforms needed to clinch a new financing package, a
government official said, moving Athens one step closer to adeal needed to avoid a chaotic debt default. So what whe have more the gold trade working out pretty well. This 1 didnt risked a lot on it because it was pure a gut trade based on bernanke i didnt had technicals tottaly aligned so it wasnt a high probality trade but still good enough also i had a mental sl on it and emergency 1 close to 1700. So what now tommorow whe havent got much going on only later whe have the nzd employment change and unemployment change. On the last report i know from the rbnz they where little bit hawkish and dont rule out further hikes in the rates but the european crisis they might be more cautious to do it. But good nrs make the changes only more here some info for leading indicators for currencies to forecast intrest rates a bit http://mortgage-x.com/general/indicators.asp.

Now whats the plan not much i expect tomorow a kinda flat session runned by some bond auction in the morning and the greece rumours the italy auction will be 1 to watched so far the market suprises us with good auctions so there is some confidence comming back in the eurozone and thats good also they working on a slow progres of a fiscal union europe will be in a recesion for sometime but they could get out of it if they can fix the deflationary spiral it is in now. They have no choice to follow the fed they could backstop it by artificialy lifesupport to keep it going again now the authorities need to admit imo.


Oke now trading wise i dont like to take unecassy risk tommorow expect choppy session will add to gold if it pullbacks thats all at the moment.



here some links for the 1s who intrested for some some up etc.
https://customers.thomsonreuters.com...Feb_7_2012.pdf
http://insider.thomsonreuters.com/li...YWNkYjNhNTI%3D



and a vid

A superb system that deserves a lot more attention. A horizental and diagnol line are all you need to be successful in this game.

Hello traders!

Here we have today short possible trade on EU.

30min charts - are for levels, 5min charts - for entery watching.

Here is my bracket (sell stop, SL, and TP)

Short!




EDIT: finally target is reached.

Forex fundamental analysis:

It is, for instance, basic knowledge that interest rate differentials influence market action in an easily perceptible way. Unlike technical studies, fundamental analysis also helps us to establish the causes of market events. While technical analysis shows the how, where, and when of the markets, fundamental studies provide us the crucial “why” component necessary for linking those “where, when, how” aspects of the price action.

Fundamental analysis is certainly not news trading, nor is it a way of timing the markets. While it sometimes happens, it is rare that the dictates of forex fundamental analysis will be reflected in the market action immediately. However, the later that the markets realign themselves with fundamentals, the more severe the correction will be. The longer the irrationalities last, the stronger their elimination in the markets, and the greater the profits of the fundamental trader.

quoted from: http://www.learntotradethemarket.com...ental-analysis