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Auction Market Theory and Market Profile

  • #4,181
  • Edited 4:21pm Feb 7, 2012 12:33pm | Edited 4:21pm
Quoting Aztrader2
I've made some considerations about the merged profiles I posted before.....

Assuming they're right (Evak or mzvega will tell.....), I noticed that last week was an inside bar....
Now price can go on ranging....or breaking it.

Dalton says: Logic + Time + Structure

LOGIC (at least mine.....) tells me that often we have fake breaks of inside bars..... so, if price is goin to fill the upper distribution (as it appears from the merged profiles), we could have a fake down break (or, at least a new test of the downside...i.e....
Not so bad for a nebwie...... >230 pips til now from that low's test....

Unfortunately, yesterday couldn't trade & today I set a TP around last week WIBH @ 1.3215 (a little more of tgwhbb initial TP) and then I fell asleep....
Ohhh my God......I've been too pessimistic listening to him....yet the books always say not to listen to others and do for themselves!!!

Seriously speaking, I wish to thank you all for this GREAT THREAD...
In a few days (reading here, & some books & links recommended by you guys) I had the opportunity to better understand market's logic.... It was the first time for me after 2 years wasted here in forex....
Of course it's just the start and I have to learn a lot more....

I want to share here the possible future target: 1.3500 (just happens is last 13 months merged VAL.....)
It is based from another guy's job here @ FF (sorry but I don't remember the thread) that states when a week closes above/below (coming from below/above) some critical round numbers (1.30 - 1.35 - 1.40 etc...), the short/middle period target is the next one round number...... Time will tell

I've my personal convinction too, based upon foundamentals:

Here, in Italy (and Europe genrally speaking) the media always tells us how catstrophic is economical situation.....


I quote myself from a post made 01/19/2012 in a babypips forum where I wasted almost in vain a lot of time & energy (and little money....)....

START QUOTE
ECB President Draghi spoke @ Monday 16th Jan. 19:00 (GMT+1), and said Euro crisis was serious.... (not speaking about recent downgrading of many eurozone nations by Standard & Poor....)so what you thought would happen next.....?

@ 19:00 GMT +1 EU closed @ 1.26722
@ 00:00 GMT +1 EU closed @ 1.26488 (-23.4 pips ohhhhh, my God, what a drop! )

Starting from there EU rose @ 1.28781 (+ 229 pips.... at least until Today 4:30 GMT+1)
Someone still going to listen to media....? I would bet EU will rise in next months......

Read more: http://forums.babypips.com/free-fore...#ixzz1liqKcdOH
END QUOTE

The Bildenberg Group is taking control here in Europe (Italy/Greece etc) with it's men..... (Draghi, Monti, Papademos) and.... who do you think introduced Euro (forcing Eu nations to loose theyr Monetary freedom)? The Bildenberg's men of course...... F... 'em
They're destoying our welfare!
But Euro goes up.......

Ok...go back now to read the books.....
  • #4,182
  • Feb 7, 2012 12:37pm Feb 7, 2012 12:37pm
The Charts: Today's trade & 1/19/2012 chart.....
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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  • #4,183
  • Feb 7, 2012 1:09pm Feb 7, 2012 1:09pm
Quoting Aztrader2
The Charts: Today's trade & 1/19/2012 chart.....
i've been wanting a time indicator (for the different markets) like the one you have for a while, would you mind sharing?
Change is the only constant
  • #4,184
  • Feb 7, 2012 1:12pm Feb 7, 2012 1:12pm
Quoting tgwhbb
SL update on ES trades just below D period. Break of that period stops one timeframing up on the short term. poor high so far, and poor high for last 3 NY sessions. Could be warning of a test of the breakout soon.

similarly, closed EU trade. top looking poor as well and one timeframing stopped in H period, maybe getting too long at the moment and my trade location was not very good.
hmm, in hind sight, ES today is an outside day, failing at the bottom of current range, and breaking through to new weekly high with value squarely above last friday's VA. i'm tempted to remove my SL overnight to keep the good trade location (at least for my lower entry).

thoughts?
Change is the only constant
  • #4,185
  • Feb 7, 2012 1:18pm Feb 7, 2012 1:18pm
Quoting tgwhbb
i've been wanting a time indicator (for the different markets) like the one you have for a while, would you mind sharing?

Here you go bro...
Credits to XARD777
Attached File(s)
File Type: ex4 !XPS CLOCK.ex4   23 KB | 473 downloads
  • #4,186
  • Feb 7, 2012 2:53pm Feb 7, 2012 2:53pm
Quoting tgwhbb
hmm, in hind sight, ES today is an outside day, failing at the bottom of current range, and breaking through to new weekly high with value squarely above last friday's VA. i'm tempted to remove my SL overnight to keep the good trade location (at least for my lower entry).

thoughts?
so i still need to work on my patience closed out too early on ES. Waiting for tomorrow pre NY for re-entry. unless value builds below blue line (today's pullback low), bias is still long-side. I'll be looking for re-entry long around 1340.
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Change is the only constant
  • #4,187
  • Feb 7, 2012 8:52pm Feb 7, 2012 8:52pm
Quoting Evak
Oh i almost forgot to include this link...

http://www.cmegroup.com/education/br...bin-mesch.html
Thank You.

Seem like most of her public stuff only avail on CME.

Just went through her PDF on CME and her website, and found the following to be interesting article.
http://www.robinmesch.com/articles/article3.htm


For your current Long EUR/USD, where do you see is the potential target area ?
  • #4,188
  • Feb 7, 2012 10:06pm Feb 7, 2012 10:06pm
Quoting foxybunny
Thank You.

Seem like most of her public stuff only avail on CME.

Just went through her PDF on CME and her website, and found the following to be interesting article.
http://www.robinmesch.com/articles/article3.htm


For your current Long EUR/USD, where do you see is the potential target area ?
3350 to 3450
  • #4,189
  • Feb 7, 2012 10:14pm Feb 7, 2012 10:14pm
Quoting tgwhbb
so i still need to work on my patience closed out too early on ES. Waiting for tomorrow pre NY for re-entry. unless value builds below blue line (today's pullback low), bias is still long-side. I'll be looking for re-entry long around 1340.
Bearing in mind the following processs helps, similar to how one view the 3i days..of coz in occur in all time frames.

Steidlmayer 4 step process of market aunction...
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  • #4,190
  • Feb 7, 2012 10:37pm Feb 7, 2012 10:37pm
After vertical move, market in consolidation period.
Here's yest profile split at 'h' period (developing around stopping price) merged with today's.

We're sitting at HVN atm, still well contained in IB.
As no extension yet formed, I'll take a careful approach at 3190 area.
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  • #4,191
  • Feb 7, 2012 11:27pm Feb 7, 2012 11:27pm
  •  s7c
  • | Joined Mar 2011 | Status: try and fail but don't fail to try | 289 Posts
thank's evak, now it's a little clearer. so the trick is on first initiative we need to auction higher then VA and the example i gave the IB is inside to previous value. regarding the TPO counting, in the Mind over Markets the POC is still neutral at the end of the session...i really need to look at more examples in order to have a better idea.
yes, tgwhbb. but my idea was to understand why till overnight session i looked at the confirmation of the short covering rally in equal measure as continuation of a 3I day as a possible direction. when evak didn't, so i know everything need to confirm and we need to act in order and not be stubborn in being right. i keep my mind as a parachute, like our friend is saying...the only problem is i'm afraid a little of heights ;-)
k, back to current analysis. we had a double distribution day with the price closing on upper distribution confirming the bullish sentiment, in the same time price being accepted above last day's balance. so everything points to a continuation, a good area to gauge the auction is at the spike base and if we get accepted below we could go to daily VAH and next to POC
right now the price is accepted at the upper distribution, fixing the anomalies...
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  • #4,192
  • Feb 8, 2012 12:04am Feb 8, 2012 12:04am
"I've had some good teachers," Mesch said. "When I met Charlie Drummond, I could tell he was brilliant and that his creation of the Drummond method was foundational work in the field. It works and he was willing to teach it. It's the same with Pete Steidlmayer. He's really ahead of his time. He has made a major contribution to the industry.

"I think you can often judge a system by the person who's behind it. I always felt what I was studying had value and was true because of the integrity and authenticity of the developers.”
[Robin Mesh]

  • #4,193
  • Feb 8, 2012 12:06am Feb 8, 2012 12:06am
  •  s7c
  • | Joined Mar 2011 | Status: try and fail but don't fail to try | 289 Posts
can we make an analogy between type of day for a type of week? i mean, we have a wider initial balance area, which implies a normal/neutral type.
would you buy now, price being above value?
  • #4,194
  • Feb 8, 2012 12:10am Feb 8, 2012 12:10am
  •  s7c
  • | Joined Mar 2011 | Status: try and fail but don't fail to try | 289 Posts
Quoting Aztrader2
"I've had some good teachers," Mesch said. "When I met Charlie Drummond, I could tell he was brilliant and that his creation of the Drummond method was foundational work in the field. It works and he was willing to teach it. It's the same with Pete Steidlmayer. He's really ahead of his time. He has made a major contribution to the industry.

"I think you can often judge a system by the person who's behind it. I always felt what I was studying had value and was true because of the integrity and authenticity of the developers.”
[Robin Mesh]

...
funny, i just finished reading that...kind of early for a gialorossi
  • #4,195
  • Feb 8, 2012 12:10am Feb 8, 2012 12:10am
Quoting s7c
can we make an analogy between type of day for a type of week? i mean, we have a wider initial balance area, which implies a normal/neutral type.
would you buy now, price being above value?
Intuitively..... would you buy (daily speaking) price above value?
  • #4,196
  • Feb 8, 2012 12:32am Feb 8, 2012 12:32am
  •  s7c
  • | Joined Mar 2011 | Status: try and fail but don't fail to try | 289 Posts
Quoting Aztrader2
Intuitively..... would you buy (daily speaking) price above value?
in the proper context
  • #4,197
  • Feb 8, 2012 1:00am Feb 8, 2012 1:00am
Quoting s7c
can we make an analogy between type of day for a type of week? i mean, we have a wider initial balance area, which implies a normal/neutral type.
would you buy now, price being above value?
I analyse the weekly (all) profiles in the same way. I analyse each IB individually on its own merit. We just set the weekly IB yest. The WK IB price action suggests Open test drive type action. But monthly IB set yesterday as open auction. However, being that we are above value on daily, weekly, monthly va's, I think the market is overextended.
Would I buy now, NO, (still holding a long) imo any "value" trader would be long already, and I would be cautious of those who did buy below value, as they will be considering profit taking. And of course Responsive sellers. I seldom trade a breakout above va, as Im looking to fo the best position to get short.
Markets are not efficient, rather they are effective - Jones
  • #4,198
  • Feb 8, 2012 7:03am Feb 8, 2012 7:03am
Quoting mzvega
you try this?.........................
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...88#post5334588

I have done all of this before, but up to no avail. Thank you
D labour of a fool wearieth him cos he doesn't know how to enta d city
  • #4,199
  • Feb 8, 2012 7:04am Feb 8, 2012 7:04am
Quoting Evak
Did u miss this step?
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...88#post5334588

Thank you for your response.
D labour of a fool wearieth him cos he doesn't know how to enta d city
  • #4,200
  • Feb 8, 2012 9:31am Feb 8, 2012 9:31am
  •  s7c
  • | Joined Mar 2011 | Status: try and fail but don't fail to try | 289 Posts
hmmm, not sure what's happening...but from what i understand in order to facilitate any trade up further, the market needs to come to balance. seems like the price is not fair for new buyers.
having a non trend day type, i want to wait for the pit session IB to be established and get short somewhere at the days high if see the upper range extension is doomed to failure.
any ideas?
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