Attachments: AUD/USD

AUD/USD

#39,981
Feb 6, 2012 5:32pm Feb 6, 2012 5:32pm

deanoracer
| Joined Nov 2010 | Status: Pip Collector | 229 Posts

Quoting lsubeano

Disliked

While not a big person on trading the news, I've noticed that price has either gone lower or not done much the day the RBA cuts rates.

There was some good buying most of the US session today however.

up or down?

Ignored

Observations from a 3-year trader... who loves that price REPEATS itself!!

Take em or leave guys, your feedback is always appreciated!!!

On Oct 31, 2011... the RBA said it would cut rates by .25, and they did exactly what they said. They cut rates by .25 bps.

My daily chart for 10/31/2011 shows a 187 pip decline and the following day, 11/01/2011, price fell an additional 270pips. I do not know about you guys, but I call that a considerable move following a rate cut by the RBA that was expected by the market already...

Furthermore, a significant read of my daily momentum indicators allows me to compare how similar the reading was on 10/31/2011 to todays look on the same indicators....

I also see a potential harmonic pattern within a harmonic pattern, both with similar ending levels...

The upmove off of .9663 appears corrective in nature to me, implying that there will be a decline upon the completion of this leg up...

My bias is short AUDUSD. short term anyways.

RBA can surprise though - they have taken my lunch money before... bastards... lol

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#39,982
Feb 6, 2012 5:48pm Feb 6, 2012 5:48pm

diggo
| Joined Jun 2011 | Status: Trader | 593 Posts

Nice observation! I trade the rate announcement every month. It really depends how certain the rate cut is going to be, there's different results every month.

Today there is around a 75% chance of a 25 point cut, so there will be a drop if it does eventuate, just not a significant drop like November. On the flipside, if rates stay on hold, there will be a significant surge to the upside.

It is gambling. This is the only time of the month where I use a stop loss. Today I'm short, targeting mid-low 1.06's in 4-5 hours, and possibly more downside throughout the next couple of days.

Quoting deanoracer

Disliked

Observations from a 3-year trader... who loves that price REPEATS itself!!

Take em or leave guys, your feedback is always appreciated!!!

On Oct 31, 2011... the RBA said it would cut rates by .25, and they did exactly what they said. They cut rates by .25 bps.

My daily chart for 10/31/2011 shows a 187 pip decline and the following day, 11/01/2011, price fell an additional 270pips. I do not know about you guys, but I call that a considerable move following a rate cut by the RBA that was expected by the market already...

Furthermore,...

Ignored

#39,983
Feb 6, 2012 6:05pm Feb 6, 2012 6:05pm

Hookem28
| Joined Sep 2007 | Status: Trader | 438 Posts

The last 10 Interest Rate Announcements, the daily candle (based on EST) ended positive AUD ONCE (June 11' +5)!

#39,984
Feb 6, 2012 6:35pm Feb 6, 2012 6:35pm

redbox
| Joined Aug 2011 | Status: Trader | 216 Posts

i think, 25bps rate cut is already priced in. will not affect much on this pair.
i hope there will be surpise (>25bps)

#39,985
Feb 6, 2012 6:37pm Feb 6, 2012 6:37pm

forexmy
| Joined Apr 2011 | Status: Trader | 41 Posts

http://i721.photobucket.com/albums/w...anpics/aud.jpg

#39,986
Feb 6, 2012 6:39pm Feb 6, 2012 6:39pm

krunfx
Joined Jun 2009 | Status: Carry Trader that not want interest | 2,016 Posts

Quoting redbox

Disliked

i think, 25bps rate cut is already priced in. will not affect much on this pair.
i hope there will be surpise (>25bps)

Ignored

if more than 25 of course will surprise..haha

and i interested to hear the comment from rba....

Bismillah

#39,987
Feb 6, 2012 6:49pm Feb 6, 2012 6:49pm

prentis31
| Joined Jan 2012 | Status: Trader | 73 Posts

Quoting pinkiaiii

Disliked

Well forex was created to exchange money,meaning if toyota sells 100 cars in USA,then money being sent back to japan and thats forex,when this happens bank who gets the order has to raise liquidity to fill the exchange order,to raise the amount that it just yet received from dollars.In the past it was not so hard to fill them orders but when everything advanced and companies got bigger and corporations arise with billions of money being moved between countries,then the banks lets in retail traders,funds and everyone else,to keep liquidity a flow.So...

Ignored

nice thought....really helpful...

#39,988
Feb 6, 2012 7:51pm Feb 6, 2012 7:51pm

rnegoro
| Joined May 2010 | Status: Trader | 103 Posts

The rate today still lingers at 1.07ish, which is nuts considering they are likely to cut rates tonight. BUT anz did say rba not cutting rates.

Well if it's priced in then good luck to those taking longs.

#39,989
Feb 6, 2012 7:54pm Feb 6, 2012 7:54pm

stulic
Joined May 2011 | Status: grizzly long gone | 2,427 Posts

Quoting pinkiaiii

Disliked

Well forex was created to exchange money,meaning if toyota sells 100 cars in USA,then money being sent back to japan and thats forex,when this happens bank who gets the order has to raise liquidity to fill the exchange order,to raise the amount that it just yet received from dollars.In the past it was not so hard to fill them orders but when everything advanced and companies got bigger and corporations arise with billions of money being moved between countries,then the banks lets in retail traders,funds and everyone else,to keep liquidity a flow.So...

Ignored

That's right, but still export/import companies as big as they may be, still account for a tiny bit of daily turnover in Forex, it's Deutsche Bank, UBS, Barclays and Citi who make up the majority of billions of dollars worth of forward contracts between each other every day, the rest is made up of smaller banks and big hedge funds, these are the market makers...

Don't get mad, get even!

#39,990
Feb 6, 2012 8:09pm Feb 6, 2012 8:09pm

Tredley
| Joined Jan 2012 | Status: Trader | 2 Posts

the NATIONAL AUSTRALIA BANK has all ready said that they will pass on the full rate cut and treasurer wayne swan is all ready telling the other banks to pass it on, so i would be betting that the reserve is going to cut rates

#39,991
Feb 6, 2012 8:18pm Feb 6, 2012 8:18pm

fxgump88
| Joined Feb 2012 | Status: Trader | 2 Posts

Hi all, I am new here. My name is Terry and I have been trading fx for almost 5 years now.

Finally decided to become a member share ideas instead of being just a selfish reader.

Went through what most other traders went through, losing alot of money, changing systems and feeling very depressed before becoming profitable for the last 8 mths.

Now my trading system consist of good money management rules, formulated using a strategy which combines elliot waves, fibonacci and price action.

I hope I can share my trading idea regarding AUDUSD for today

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#39,992
Feb 6, 2012 8:25pm Feb 6, 2012 8:25pm

mohan76
Joined Jan 2011 | Status: Ordinary Members | 10,684 Posts

Quoting Tredley

Disliked

the NATIONAL AUSTRALIA BANK has all ready said that they will pass on the full rate cut and treasurer wayne swan is all ready telling the other banks to pass it on, so i would be betting that the reserve is going to cut rates

Ignored

may be NAB confident there is no rate cut

i will not trade now

Mohan

#39,993
Feb 6, 2012 8:47pm Feb 6, 2012 8:47pm

stulic
Joined May 2011 | Status: grizzly long gone | 2,427 Posts

FXstreet.com (Barcelona) - Expectations that the RBA will cut the interest rate by 25 bps at 3.30 GMT appear to be already factored into the market, thus risk in the AUD/USD is to the upside, says Barclays Capital chief Japan currency strategist Masafumi Yamamoto. "What we will pay attention to is a post-meeting statement to see how strong the central bank's vigilance is toward the inflationary risk."

Don't get mad, get even!

#39,994
Feb 6, 2012 9:02pm Feb 6, 2012 9:02pm

krunfx
Joined Jun 2009 | Status: Carry Trader that not want interest | 2,016 Posts

Quoting stulic

Disliked

FXstreet.com (Barcelona) - Expectations that the RBA will cut the interest rate by 25 bps at 3.30 GMT appear to be already factored into the market, thus risk in the AUD/USD is to the upside, says Barclays Capital chief Japan currency strategist Masafumi Yamamoto. "What we will pay attention to is a post-meeting statement to see how strong the central bank's vigilance is toward the inflationary risk."

Ignored

yes also interested at their statement >_<

Bismillah

#39,995
Feb 6, 2012 9:09pm Feb 6, 2012 9:09pm

andri66
| Joined Jul 2011 | Status: Trader | 350 Posts

Quoting stulic

Disliked

FXstreet.com (Barcelona) - Expectations that the RBA will cut the interest rate by 25 bps at 3.30 GMT appear to be already factored into the market, thus risk in the AUD/USD is to the upside, says Barclays Capital chief Japan currency strategist Masafumi Yamamoto. "What we will pay attention to is a post-meeting statement to see how strong the central bank's vigilance is toward the inflationary risk."

Ignored

Nice info..

..might move up to test 1.1 if rate stay at 4.25% ? though when analyst say up the market might just do the opposite..

#39,996
Feb 6, 2012 9:12pm Feb 6, 2012 9:12pm

stulic
Joined May 2011 | Status: grizzly long gone | 2,427 Posts

Quoting krunfx

Disliked

yes also interested at their statement >_<

Ignored

It'll be one of those: global growth is showing moderate signs of improvement although sovereign debt crisis in Europe still poses great risk to global economy blah blah
Domestically, inflation has eased somewhat but strong labour market in parts of the economy are creating wage pressures through higher labour costs so risk of higher inflation in first and second quarter could stay elevated blah blah blah...

Overall, the Board concluded, on the basis of all the available information, that the inflation outlook afforded scope for a modest reduction in the cash rate. The Board will continue to set policy as needed to foster sustainable growth and low inflation over time.