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AUD/USD

  • #39,881
  • Feb 4, 2012 7:47am Feb 4, 2012 7:47am
Quoting sidhujag
Please do not listen to zerohedge, do your own homework! This is going to get you into trouble in the future otherwise.
haha well, i certainly enjoy reading there but i definitely don't make trading decisions based on their writing

good weekend to all
Any prices quoted are futures
  • #39,882
  • Feb 5, 2012 4:42am Feb 5, 2012 4:42am
Quoting JTattheRanch
Are there any experts out there that can tell me if there's a limit on how much an investor or trader can make while trading currencies on the Forex market? At what point does it become detrimental to the broker of choice to keep allowing a client to pull in huge gains? Is it 10 G a week? 20 G a week?...

Thanks in advance for anyone who has advice on this.
That would depend on your broker "of choice", but how do you think you're gonna achieve continuous 20k weekly profit?

A trader who can make 20k a week would have an opening balance of 1 million IMHO, and with that kind of money he wouldn't trade through a retail broker and would know very well where to park the funds first.

Don't you worry about retail brokers, contrary to what the name suggests, they don't go broke that easy.
Don't get mad, get even!
  • #39,883
  • Feb 5, 2012 5:42am Feb 5, 2012 5:42am
Where is good place to short? Under 1.0749 ? What you guys think ? if we dont open above 1.0800
Early to bed, early to rise, keeps you healthy, wealthy and wise.
  • #39,884
  • Feb 5, 2012 6:08am Feb 5, 2012 6:08am
Quoting eqshack
Where is good place to short? Under 1.0749 ? What you guys think ? if we dont open above 1.0800
wait till tomorrow Retail Sales data , it might give clear signal of interest cut and direction ,
Mohan
  • #39,885
  • Feb 5, 2012 6:17am Feb 5, 2012 6:17am
Quoting eqshack
Where is good place to short? Under 1.0749 ? What you guys think ? if we dont open above 1.0800
Wont open above 1.08 but as long as I see everybody and they're dog in this thread desperately trying to pick a swing top, I'll stay bullish on this pair.
It's not going to "drop like a rock" or "nose dive below parity" or "0.95 here we come", it'd be very foolish to think so.

Rate cut has been fully priced in, I can't wait to fade the move down before the announcement, then buy more for new highs after.
Don't get mad, get even!
  • #39,886
  • Edited 6:30am Feb 5, 2012 6:22am | Edited 6:30am
I do think the 4 hr and daily charts are trading in a channel and the break should be to the downside but all hinges on the RBA for me
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #39,887
  • Feb 5, 2012 6:37am Feb 5, 2012 6:37am
Quoting stulic
Wont open above 1.08 but as long as I see everybody and they're dog in this thread desperately trying to pick a swing top, I'll stay bullish on this pair.
It's not going to "drop like a rock" or "nose dive below parity" or "0.95 here we come", it'd be very foolish to think so.

Rate cut has been fully priced in, I can't wait to fade the move down before the announcement, then buy more for new highs after.

there is big chance that retail sales going to be bad because i watched 4 year results and only in 1 year it was positive ( in feb )

but if u think its going higher then i guess it will..lol u almost always correct
Early to bed, early to rise, keeps you healthy, wealthy and wise.
  • #39,888
  • Feb 5, 2012 6:49am Feb 5, 2012 6:49am
Quoting eqshack
there is big chance that retail sales going to be bad because i watched 4 year results and only in 1 year it was positive ( in feb )

but if u think its going higher then i guess it will..lol u almost always correct
Heh I'm not always correct, nobody is, it's just that most small traders are wrong some of the time and some are wrong most of the time, which means going against their collective sentiment is usually the safer bet.

I think you know that the retail sales numbers to be released tomorrow are actually December 2011 data, which of course includes Christmas shopping madness.
0.2% increase prediction seams a bit too weak for my liking but I wish I had some connections inside the ABS to know for sure, since I don't I can only follow my bias which is UP.

Too bad the numbers disregard online shopping, we'd have something like 0.5% or more easy
Don't get mad, get even!
  • #39,889
  • Feb 5, 2012 8:02am Feb 5, 2012 8:02am
Long run, I think high AUD it is going to hurt larger masses of ppl in Australia.Many depends on services and tourism. Lots of jobs depends on it. Also the other aspect is education. Many will consider going to US or Europe for education due to weaker currency.
  • #39,890
  • Feb 5, 2012 8:28am Feb 5, 2012 8:28am
Quoting stulic
Heh I'm not always correct, nobody is, it's just that most small traders are wrong some of the time and some are wrong most of the time, which means going against their collective sentiment is usually the safer bet.

I think you know that the retail sales numbers to be released tomorrow are actually December 2011 data, which of course includes Christmas shopping madness.
0.2% increase prediction seams a bit too weak for my liking but I wish I had some connections inside the ABS to know for sure, since I don't I can only follow my bias which is UP....
your right about the number of shorting this pair according to oanda stats its 1/3 ratio at the moment.When it reaches such ratios its usually indication of huge movements cooming,if you were to think theres many strangled in short trades,but any upmove brings in even more shorts,so to even this out,market has to shake out the weakest shorts and then go down to attract more longs,otherwise we would get a pair like usd/jpy which is tangled in way way downward spiral for the last years and needs a lot of money to maintain stable rates.
  • #39,891
  • Feb 5, 2012 9:05am Feb 5, 2012 9:05am
Quoting pinkiaiii
your right about the number of shorting this pair according to oanda stats its 1/3 ratio at the moment.When it reaches such ratios its usually indication of huge movements cooming,if you were to think theres many strangled in short trades,but any upmove brings in even more shorts,so to even this out,market has to shake out the weakest shorts and then go down to attract more longs,otherwise we would get a pair like usd/jpy which is tangled in way way downward spiral for the last years and needs a lot of money to maintain stable rates.
To shake out weak shorts price would have to be pushed up higher to knock out their weak stops, this would imply a reversal down from higher highs to attract more shorts who've been desperately waiting for a major trend reversal signal.
This would only be a correction bringing the price down just about enough below obvious perceived demand zones, to shake out longs and fool long term shorts, then reverse back up and climb to fresh new highs.

This is only a range of 200-300 pips, major trend reversals are dictated by fundamentals, little fish on high leverage trading can easily get caught up in a downward spiral as you say and AUD has lately been showing signs of joining JPY and CHF as a resilient safe haven asset apart from being a much higher yielding investment.

Only a major global crisis like a new middle east military intervention with Iran or Syria or anything similar, is going to change this. AUD is in high demand and massively growing foreign investment interest in Australia's commodity market can only push this pairs exchange rate way above $1.11.
Don't get mad, get even!
  • #39,892
  • Feb 5, 2012 9:19am Feb 5, 2012 9:19am
Quoting nitefly
Long run, I think high AUD it is going to hurt larger masses of ppl in Australia.Many depends on services and tourism. Lots of jobs depends on it. Also the other aspect is education. Many will consider going to US or Europe for education due to weaker currency.
Sure, that's the downside of having a free-floating exchange rate. Some sectors suffer a lot, others make huge profits.
Look at Switzerland, they're lucky most of their export industry is high quality luxury ware that doesn't suffer much from a strong Swiss Franc, as the Japanese high-tech and car exporting industry does.

Australia just posted a massive better then expected trade surplus despite the strong Aussie, the demand for commodities like iron ore, coal and uranium is not slowing down, China and India just can't get enough of it...

It is hurting local exporting manufacture but that's nothing new, more then half of all manufacture jobs from Europe and the US have moved to China years ago anyway.
Of course it's hurting the tourism industry, but it's benefiting local consumers who pay less for imported goods and have more money to spend on other things.

Everybody needs to adapt, it takes time but there's always gonna be winners and losers, that's just how macroeconomics works in a nut shell.
Don't get mad, get even!
  • #39,893
  • Feb 5, 2012 10:36am Feb 5, 2012 10:36am
Quoting stulic

Only a major global crisis like a new middle east military intervention with Iran or Syria or anything similar, is going to change this. AUD is in high demand and massively growing foreign investment interest in Australia's commodity market can only push this pairs exchange rate way above $1.11.
This is all true medium/long term. Short term however we could be on the verge of a major correction (technically) espescially looking at Gold and SP.
  • #39,894
  • Feb 5, 2012 1:53pm Feb 5, 2012 1:53pm
well aud opened downward,hopping it will give a chance to enter higher before the rate annoucement,to short this ba$tard
  • #39,895
  • Feb 5, 2012 2:05pm Feb 5, 2012 2:05pm
50 pips opened. Bad for long traders who kept open their trades during the week-end.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: AUD.jpg Size: 60 KB
Little luck is forex water. Learn all Trading strategies, then forget them.
  • #39,896
  • Feb 5, 2012 3:30pm Feb 5, 2012 3:30pm
In my opinion, AUD will drop against the majors this week. 1) AUD is extremely overbought; 2) AUD is at the top of the range against USD, while at the bottom of ranges against EUR and GBP; 3) RBA is expected to cut rates this week down to 4.00%; 4) With the Greek deal still incomplete, bodes well for risk aversion this week.

I am currently short AUD/USD, AUD/NZD and long GBP/AUD. I see AUD/USD retracing back to around 1.0435 area.
  • #39,897
  • Feb 5, 2012 3:47pm Feb 5, 2012 3:47pm
AUD/USD @ 1.0750

Rumbles about a RBA rate cut this morning by the media.
I cant see it as europe hasnt capitulated (YET).My thinking is that they will wait for severity and keep their powder dry.
So perhaps first up pressure on the downside ?
Im still a buyer on the dip as the interest rate differential or carry trade to the layman is still attractive.

EUR/AUD @ 1.2200

Broken a key level and bounced off 1.2170 - this can be a pattern on a break of key level as the technical traders scalp for 20-30 pips, Waiting for the real money to enter.

GBP/AUD @ 1.4700

Same as pattern as above.

There is one rule that I follow on these historical breaks which is like a shark alarm.. "The Key Reversal"
It goes like this .. If the market makes a new low and it closes higher than the previous day close. GTFO. The same can be said for the opposite on the historical high.

Lets rock this week
  • #39,898
  • Feb 5, 2012 3:53pm Feb 5, 2012 3:53pm
Amazing and funny !!

Look at my previous chart. I closed my session and open it after an hour, according to the second time, price never touched TL . Where is the funny mistake ?
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: AUD.jpg Size: 61 KB
Little luck is forex water. Learn all Trading strategies, then forget them.
  • #39,899
  • Feb 5, 2012 3:59pm Feb 5, 2012 3:59pm
Here is a 5mn chart i looked at it the first time. 1.0720 seems never touched.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: AUD 2.jpg Size: 60 KB
Little luck is forex water. Learn all Trading strategies, then forget them.
  • #39,900
  • Feb 5, 2012 4:22pm Feb 5, 2012 4:22pm
Short @ 1.0763
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