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True Trading Tactics

  • #21
  • Feb 3, 2012 8:52am Feb 3, 2012 8:52am
In post #12, you should go long on the break of the green bar on the bottom, instead, you mention shorting it again if the pullback candle gets broken, unless I misunderstood. I don't criticize the method, it just seems to me that when applied mechanically (as the rules are clearly objective), it won't make money in the long run. There could be some discretionary twists that you apply to it causing you to make money long term, I just don't believe that if you executed every single signal you would have a winning strategy (if yes, one could just trade this in an automated fashion...).
  • #22
  • Feb 3, 2012 9:29am Feb 3, 2012 9:29am
Sorry aQuant i see what your saying and you'd be correct. As i was quickly doing this chart as it happened i missed that, however i will say as there's a lot of news now (NFP etc) and the news pushed the pound down i'd be reluctant to get in...saying that it's a bet we'd still be in.

I don't do anything mechanical (above shows why).....if i'm in good profit and there's big news about then i'll not close the bet but i will move SL to secure some profit. It's common sense stuff really.

e.g. i was both in GU and EU short (candle reversal at the top of a trend) but as it's NFP day i didn't want to be in both so i move SL to BE on EU so i was protected from the potential of 2 losses.
  • #23
  • Feb 3, 2012 9:46am Feb 3, 2012 9:46am
What do you do if the "reversal candle" is a doji?
Thanks for your help.
Steve
  • #24
  • Feb 3, 2012 9:46am Feb 3, 2012 9:46am
Well i'm going for lunch, so i'll leave you all with one more pic and this:

"if your not trading successfully then give this a go for the next 2 weeks"

dump your indicators, make your charts basic and look at them over the weekend and pick the entries out....

Here's the GU daily now.
  • #25
  • Feb 3, 2012 9:47am Feb 3, 2012 9:47am
here's the pic...
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: kkk.gif Size: 42 KB
  • #26
  • Feb 3, 2012 9:55am Feb 3, 2012 9:55am
Hi kraven

Thanks for this new thread. Your trading idea is quite similar to what I have been doing for months with reasonable results:
A win% of 63 and a Win/Loss ratio of 2.55.

I think your approach means a better win% but also fewer trades.

Some of your charts have an indicator in upperleft corner showing dynamic intraday distances to ADR range.
I have been looking for that indicator for a long time.
Would you please

With kind regards,
Finn
  • #27
  • Feb 3, 2012 10:02am Feb 3, 2012 10:02am
Finnsol,

do you use objective rules to enter your trades? (that is, completely mechanical, albeit execution might not be...) It seems that 63% winning percentage with winners being 2.5 times larger than losers is excellent.
  • #28
  • Feb 3, 2012 10:26am Feb 3, 2012 10:26am
Quoting aQuant
Finnsol,

do you use objective rules to enter your trades? (that is, completely mechanical, albeit execution might not be...) It seems that 63% winning percentage with winners being 2.5 times larger than losers is excellent.
Hi aQuant

Not quite mechanical. Considering time of the day. I prefer London session.
Avoid nearby daily pivotlines. Avoid news.
One mechanical criteria: The body of the reversal candle must exceed 10% of the actual ADR(40)...
TP=ADR(40) x 30%
SL= -do- x 25%
I'm an ADR-fan

Finn
  • #29
  • Feb 3, 2012 10:32am Feb 3, 2012 10:32am
Quoting finnsol
Hi kraven

Thanks for this new thread. Your trading idea is quite similar to what I have been doing for months with reasonable results:
A win% of 63 and a Win/Loss ratio of 2.55.

I think your approach means a better win% but also fewer trades.

Some of your charts have an indicator in upperleft corner showing dynamic intraday distances to ADR range.
I have been looking for that indicator for a long time.
Would you please

[size=3]With...
Hello Finn, I know your pain...I too searched for a long time for a good ADR indicator and believe I found the best around.

It also plays an important part in my hourly trades.....e.g. if i get a reversal candle over the daily range then that is an almost certain profitable trade....likewise if i get a re-entry outside the ADR i'm more cautious and will move SL to BE very quick.
Attached File(s)
File Type: ex4 !SM_ADR Marker.ex4   12 KB | 2,667 downloads
  • #30
  • Feb 3, 2012 10:34am Feb 3, 2012 10:34am
I should add that last month was a losing one - no holy grail here.
But the preceding 5 months were excellent

Finn
  • #31
  • Feb 3, 2012 10:38am Feb 3, 2012 10:38am
[quote=kraven;5354157]Hello Finn, I know your pain...I too searched for a long time for a good ADR indicator and believe I found the best around.

Thanks a lot kraven!
Really appreciate it!
  • #32
  • Feb 3, 2012 10:46am Feb 3, 2012 10:46am
no problems Finn

the ADR lines appear dotted and thin until the ADR has been hit, then they appear big and bold. Also shows a nice write-up in the corner. Remember to set it to your brokers TF.
  • #33
  • Feb 3, 2012 11:19am Feb 3, 2012 11:19am
Quoting kraven
Sorry aQuant i see what your saying and you'd be correct. As i was quickly doing this chart as it happened i missed that, however i will say as there's a lot of news now (NFP etc) and the news pushed the pound down i'd be reluctant to get in...saying that it's a bet we'd still be in.
Not that i'm in this but the entry aQuant pointed out has turned into a decent bet. if your unsure 6 candles ago we had a reversal candle (it broke the low and turned positive) we would have entered (on a normal day..no NFP) on the break of this.
  • #34
  • Feb 3, 2012 11:29am Feb 3, 2012 11:29am
Quoting kraven
here's the pic...
Hi Karven

Can you please show the T/P for these entries on the chart.

King Regards
Yonas
  • #35
  • Feb 3, 2012 1:37pm Feb 3, 2012 1:37pm
Very nice thread!

Interesting to follow. Keep it going!

This is true price action thread. General idea is based in reversals.
  • #36
  • Feb 3, 2012 1:53pm Feb 3, 2012 1:53pm
Quoting kraven
no problems Finn

the ADR lines appear dotted and thin until the ADR has been hit, then they appear big and bold. Also shows a nice write-up in the corner. Remember to set it to your brokers TF.
Okay kraven - after applying your indicator I see it's not quite what I hoped for.
To add and subtract a half daily range to the open doesn't tell me anything.
My dream-indicator is dynamic during the day.
Should add the ADR-value to the current low of the day.
And subtract the ADR from the current high of the day.

Whenever a higher intraday-high is printed the expected low of the day is increased accordingly. The distance between current high and expected low should be constant = ADR. :nerd:

I know it sounds complicated, but should be a rather simple task for a coder.
Let's keep looking
  • #37
  • Feb 3, 2012 5:29pm Feb 3, 2012 5:29pm
Quoting Yonas
Hi Karven

Can you please show the T/P for these entries on the chart.

King Regards
Yonas
Yonas i find taking profit is a personnal or a timely decision. my main goal is not to see a winning position turn to a loosing one. a lot of the time i take half at 1:1 and move the SL to BE, then exit the rest at the close of the next candle that's in the 'wrong' direction to the trend. But if the market moves quick i'll just ride it through moving SL to BE as quick as possible

here's the pic again marked 1 to 4..

trade 1
SL is 60 pips, the reverse candle is 100....so if we took the reverse candle as our TP then it's over 1:1.5 RR.....or if we exited at the close of the first 'wrong' candle that 113.

trade 2
SL 50, rev candle 60, 'wrong' candle 103... 1:2 r:r

trade 3
SL 70, wrong candle 140...rr 1:2

trade 4
SL 50, wrong candle 60...rr 1:1.2
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: kkk.gif Size: 43 KB
  • #38
  • Feb 3, 2012 5:49pm Feb 3, 2012 5:49pm
You've got my attention. Reading with intent.
  • #39
  • Feb 3, 2012 5:54pm Feb 3, 2012 5:54pm
Quoting dim4ik42
Very nice thread!

Interesting to follow. Keep it going!

This is true price action thread. General idea is based in reversals.
glad you like the idea. i believe you can only succeed in this game using price action.

no disrespect to the thread above and below this one but i bet it's full of indicators. I can say without seeing the system that it will not work, it can't.

someone once asked me why i didn't use/disliked indicators...simple they can't work...look at all the thousands out there...take one, say a MA, now look at all the variants...SMA, EMA, etc....plus the period 10, 15, 40, 35 etc...now the shift applied to the close or median or open..now which timeframe 1m, 5m, 15m, 4hr, weekly?.
lets say a person has 2 SMA's at 8 and 15 and looks for the cross on a 15min, that's totaly different from the guy who has the same set-up on a 1hr...change the set-up to EMA and its totally different to the guy who does it SMA. now throw in some Stochastics at 5,3,3 or will we have 14,5,5....or will we have MACD but which setting 12,26,9 or 8,20,6???? or RSI at 12, 7 or 21.....the only way this would work is if EVERYONE used the same indi's at the same settings on the same TF. which we don't (rant over )
  • #40
  • Feb 3, 2012 8:17pm Feb 3, 2012 8:17pm
These bars do work but if you just take every one that comes along you will loose. You have to find the right situations. If you only took three or four trades a week but had an impressive win rate and good r/r would you be happy? Think before you answer. Most people act in their trading as if they can't make money unless they are trading all the time. This leads to overtrading. I am going to include a couple of charts illustrating some good setups but you have to wait for them. Any one hour bar that makes a new high and finishes red could loose money for a trader but that same bar in the right place is a sure fire money maker. Study these and go find some to trade but be prepared to sit all day and not take a trade you must have patience.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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Click to Enlarge Name: example two.jpg Size: 96 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: example three.jpg Size: 98 KB
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