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Where can I learn more about Price Action like those in James16 charts? 9 replies

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james16 Chart Thread

  • #106,801
  • Feb 3, 2012 11:07am Feb 3, 2012 11:07am
Quoting R3ta
Not only in your experience.

Mechanical systems are destined to fail in the long run because they doesn't "adapt" to the market's changes. Charles darwin once said “It is not the strongest of species that survive, nor the most intelligent, but the one most responsive to change.”

However, i'm keeping an eye on gold (note the macd div):


R3ta

You are right as most systems and methods fail over time. This will probably be no different , everything works great until it doesn't . Perhaps I will trade it until it is no longer valid .

It is funny that I have never come across this method before in the last 5 years and only happen to review it by accident. My guess it that it is SO BASIC that people ignore because it looks to easy ....There are no fancy indicators needed like MACD , RSI or anything like that which I think is why no one uses it.

Think about it people back in the 50's and 60's made money trading and did not have computers and all these indicators to use so how were they successful?? by keeping it simple ! Thats how

As many of the people in here preach to Keep it simple......in the case of this method ... LESS = MORE
"Greed is good,greed is right,greed works"
  • #106,802
  • Feb 3, 2012 11:15am Feb 3, 2012 11:15am
Quoting Gekko78
So I analyzed the results for the EUR/USD for Jan using this system



551 pip gain
200 pip loss

+351 pips for month of January.

so using minis trading 1 lot each starting with $1,000 would have resulted in a 35% gain for the month.

Not to shabby.
Hey G sound great
Si stiu, stiu deja, intr-o zi o sa ajung cineva...
  • #106,803
  • Feb 3, 2012 11:15am Feb 3, 2012 11:15am
Quoting Gekko78
I am not sure that I would classify this as a purely mechanical system. The calculations for the signals generated and trades entered are mathematical and based off of previous price. I also incorporated some things form the J16 Method such as PPZ for targets and Stop losses and such . Also exiting 1/2 position and moving stops to BE once a certain area is hit.


The way I trade is I like to go for the base hit trades ......50 pips here 30 pips there and so on .... that is what this trading style does. It allows me to capture small moves that...
a mechanical trading systeam can be profitable, only if its entry and exit rules are based mostly on price action. i've seen HUNDREDS of mechanical systems based on complex indicators, but they usually are a waste of efforts and money. the reason is easy: they base their entry and exits decisions on distorted market analysis based on cryptical indicators. as said recently some pages before, i think complexity is the first enemy of all methods. it could be possible to code a well balanced EA which trades with pure price action rules for entry and exits, but it should be very complex in the trading opportunity evaluation. for example, we could code an EA to identify price action opportunity and "tell" it to trade only A+ entry, giving it the possibility to spot and analyze fib, macd div, round numbers, ppz, trendlines, etc... to consider all the factors when trading. note the difference: it should be based on complex and well balanced trade and momentum analysis of pure price action BUT i'm not saying it should be based on a simple analysis of complex indicator's signals. there's a huge differences. imagine an AI which can trade like a pure price action trader: entry and exits rules are quite simple, but there's a lot of chart analysis behind it. it should "think" in term of price, ppz, probabilities and many other varabilies. i'm talking about the kind of visual analysis which would be not as easy to code as it seems.
  • #106,804
  • Feb 3, 2012 11:30am Feb 3, 2012 11:30am
aud/ jpy went is 70 pips in the right direction. i should have waited for the bounce before i bought, but everyone has their trigger finger
now the question is, is this bar strong enough to leave the trade open over the weekend?
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2.212 aud.jpy outside bar on daily.png Size: 41 KB
  • #106,805
  • Feb 3, 2012 11:34am Feb 3, 2012 11:34am
Friday Lunchtime. Done & toasted.
Start prepping for next week.
btw. Closed all Gold Longs for +.
1,722 on the map for Poss Re-Entry Long.

B
  • #106,806
  • Feb 3, 2012 11:40am Feb 3, 2012 11:40am
Quoting james16
im fine. what have i been up to? real estate is what i put a lot of my trading profits into. its usually houses in the 50 to 80k range that are good rentals and can easily make 60 to 80 percent return a year on your investment. i plan to show everyone how i do that and how easy it is here this year.

my latest foray is the largest thing i have ever done. its been very stressful and has required my focused attention for the last couple of months. i have partnered with 15 friends and associates to build my cities first upscale assisted and memory...
hi jim, i don't want to make you lose time telling you how much i'm grateful for what you have done (indirectly and directly) to improve my trading experience. i can say with no overstatement that you're the best trading mentor i've ever seen in many years of trading.

i'm happy to see you're setting on great investments it would be nice to know more in the future about your investment plan and ideas.

have a great weekend!
  • #106,807
  • Feb 3, 2012 11:41am Feb 3, 2012 11:41am
Long time thread reader, I have traded forex for 2 years, have always traded pin bars on short term charts. Have taken James16 trading methods seriously just recently. Had a winning week as of this morning off a daily chart my 5th trade for the week, it was up 3%. I knew the jobs report was coming out, did not go to BE, got smoked with a SL when report came out. I feel like the trade had potential and that my stops wide enough to absord news, they did not. Anyway, question is do you guys tend to be more conservative with TP and BE around news events like this? Man this trade ruined my first profitable week in a long time.
  • #106,808
  • Feb 3, 2012 11:44am Feb 3, 2012 11:44am
Quoting R3ta
a mechanical trading systeam can be profitable, only if its entry and exit rules are based mostly on price action. i've seen HUNDREDS of mechanical systems based on complex indicators, but they usually are a waste of efforts and money. the reason is easy: they base their entry and exits decisions on distorted market analysis based on cryptical indicators. as said recently some pages before, i think complexity is the first enemy of all methods. it could be possible to code a well balanced EA which trades with pure price action rules for entry and...

Thats just it I think the over analysis with certain methods is what causes them to fail. What if there was a method that did not use ANY indicators that you just mentioned nor did it calculate A+ trades and just looked for signals based on closing price and nothing more? If it turned out to be profitable over the long term would you use it or would you say " its to basic , it will never work over time, it does not take this , this and this into consideration!"

I think if it in terms of Vegas and the roulette wheel .

One guys says I have a system that I use which takes into account the calculations of all the numbers that have come up the last 10 times and then I divide and multiply the odds of this , this and this number coming up then divide by 6 and that answer is nearest to what number comes out based on the position of the moon at the time of the bet

Then you have another guy you says my system is simple it is either going to hit black , or red ... SOMETIMES 00 but very rarely.

Over the long run who do you think would be more right more often?

My guess it the basic guy.

Even if he was right more often most people would not use his system because they would say , it is to basic there are so many other factors to consider I cannot use that! When in reality his system would probably work better than anything else.

but because human beings HATE basic , we believe that the more "tools" we have ( indicators , trendlines etc) on our charts that somehow we are better equipped then someone who just trades price and NOTHING MORE.

In my previous back test I stated that using this method would have generated + 351 pips for the month

So using 1 lot minis and nothing else perhaps a profit of $350 for the month ( $3,500 is using standard)

I would be perfectly fine earning and extra $350 a month for trading or $4,200 extra a year but thats me , I do not swing for the fences again I go for base hits I am perfectly fine with pulling 30-50 pips a day or every other day to me its all relative , a profit is a profit.

Thats another reason I think people would not use this method , yes if I trade bigger lots than of course I could make allot more , but I am not comfortable with that yet , I do not want to risk that much . Most people want to make $1,000 a day with a method and I am just not that way.
"Greed is good,greed is right,greed works"
  • #106,809
  • Feb 3, 2012 11:48am Feb 3, 2012 11:48am
Quoting smozmo
Hey G sound great
Thanks SMOZMO ,

I just did a yearly back test of the EUR/USD and heres how it came out:

49 trades total :

35 Wins

14 losses

71.4 % win ratio
"Greed is good,greed is right,greed works"
  • #106,810
  • Feb 3, 2012 12:05pm Feb 3, 2012 12:05pm
Quoting R3ta
hi jim, i don't want to make you lose time telling you how much i'm grateful for what you have done (indirectly and directly) to improve my trading experience. i can say with no overstatement that you're the best trading mentor i've ever seen in many years of trading.

i'm happy to see you're setting on great investments it would be nice to know more in the future about your investment plan and ideas.

have a great weekend!
Jesse... Diferent age now
Quitely & efficiently.
Appologies to the recent posts of Jesse bing #1. New age my friends. New Age. This guy is Real. Even if he is wearing Merlins Head but the Bod is his.

B
  • #106,811
  • Feb 3, 2012 12:10pm Feb 3, 2012 12:10pm
Quoting Bemac
Jesse... Diferent age now
Quitely & efficiently.
Appologies to the recent posts of Jesse bing #1. New age my friends. New Age. This guy is Real. Even if he is wearing Merlins Head but the Bod is his.

B
& just incase you were wondering...
I Paid Welles.
I Paid Gary.
I Paid Jake
I Paid & I Paid & I Paid.
& I paid again to now unknowns.

Some consider me wise. This thread helps me be that way.
Jim: True:

B
  • #106,812
  • Feb 3, 2012 12:10pm Feb 3, 2012 12:10pm
Quoting Salestrainer
Long time thread reader, I have traded forex for 2 years, have always traded pin bars on short term charts. Have taken James16 trading methods seriously just recently. Had a winning week as of this morning off a daily chart my 5th trade for the week, it was up 3%. I knew the jobs report was coming out, did not go to BE, got smoked with a SL when report came out. I feel like the trade had potential and that my stops wide enough to absord news, they did not. Anyway, question is do you guys tend to be more conservative with TP and BE around news...
Hey Salestrainer

Welcome to the thread glad you came out of lurk mode

I follow what James says "I avoid news like the plague" What this means is he ignores the news. Like him I pay no attention to it and follow my charts. There are times when this may not be the case, but for most of the year 98% of the time day in and day out all I trade is my chart.

So follow the chart and let the news do its thing is my view. Keeps it simple.

I like simple

Again welcome!
Mike
  • #106,813
  • Feb 3, 2012 12:20pm Feb 3, 2012 12:20pm
Hey Gekko78 ,
I'm not telling not to try and test what you test . Just the opposite ! This is valuable experience EVEN if fails in the end ! Of course it may work . There isn't a single method to be profitable !
If I want to recommend something , it is not to jump from system to system , only cause you couldn't make a fortune in 3 weeks . It takes time . And it is important to dig in one you find meaningful , rational and sensible ! This is more important in my view
  • #106,814
  • Feb 3, 2012 12:20pm Feb 3, 2012 12:20pm
Quoting mbqb11
Hey Salestrainer

Welcome to the thread glad you came out of lurk mode

I follow what James says "I avoid news like the plague" What this means is he ignores the news. Like him I pay no attention to it and follow my charts. There are times when this may not be the case, but for most of the year 98% of the time day in and day out all I trade is my chart.

So follow the chart and let the news do its thing is my view. Keeps it simple.

I like simple

Again welcome!
Mike
NEWS; Actually it does have an affect on my Trading.
Nothing to do with Entries but it might swing my SL or TP.
Greedy. Damn rights I am. Wanna Play?

B
  • #106,815
  • Feb 3, 2012 12:25pm Feb 3, 2012 12:25pm
That's not a Challenge to Mike.
It's a warning to you that frivvel.
We are looking to Gain at Your expense.
I Trade: Therefore: I am:
I might hurt you.

B
  • #106,816
  • Feb 3, 2012 12:25pm Feb 3, 2012 12:25pm
Quoting Bemac
Friday Lunchtime. Done & toasted.
Start prepping for next week.
btw. Closed all Gold Longs for +.
1,722 on the map for Poss Re-Entry Long.

B
I'm also long GOLD from the breaking BEOB. Do not like if today closes as BOEB ! I smell another BE . Damn news
  • #106,817
  • Feb 3, 2012 12:26pm Feb 3, 2012 12:26pm
Quoting mbqb11
Hey Salestrainer

Welcome to the thread glad you came out of lurk mode

I follow what James says "I avoid news like the plague" What this means is he ignores the news. Like him I pay no attention to it and follow my charts. There are times when this may not be the case, but for most of the year 98% of the time day in and day out all I trade is my chart.

So follow the chart and let the news do its thing is my view. Keeps it simple.

I like simple

Again welcome!
Mike
Mike,

Thanks for the response, I have read up to post 1800 of this thread, and your posts are one of my favorites to read. Agreed I usually don't pay attention to the news, however in hindsite I wish I had bagged a quick profit before the news, since price spiked so hard against my set-up.
  • #106,818
  • Feb 3, 2012 12:28pm Feb 3, 2012 12:28pm
Quoting Rust
Hey Gekko78 ,
I'm not telling not to try and test what you test . Just the opposite ! This is valuable experience EVEN if fails in the end ! Of course it may work . There isn't a single method to be profitable !
If I want to recommend something , it is not to jump from system to system , only cause you couldn't make a fortune in 3 weeks . It takes time . And it is important to dig in one you find meaningful , rational and sensible ! This is more important in my view
Rust,

Thanks for your comments. I think after analyzing the 7 currency pairs and finding the avg win around 70% I am going to stick with this method for AT least 6 months and see what happens....
"Greed is good,greed is right,greed works"
  • #106,819
  • Feb 3, 2012 12:28pm Feb 3, 2012 12:28pm
Quoting Rust
I'm also long GOLD from the breaking BEOB. Do not like if today closes as BOEB ! I smell another BE . Damn news
If you can hold a 1,720 Drop. You're good.
  • #106,820
  • Feb 3, 2012 12:35pm Feb 3, 2012 12:35pm
Quoting Gekko78
I will provide the details once I have everything set in stone.
Sounds like the beginning of a spam attack to me . . .
Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
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