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  • #3,641
  • Feb 3, 2012 2:32am Feb 3, 2012 2:32am
is this the calm before the storm???? been a verrry quiet session so far....
  • #3,642
  • Feb 3, 2012 2:49am Feb 3, 2012 2:49am
Quoting alshaheen
hi i hope to stick around for a while my name is gary hi all this really looks the one for me just my 2 cents are we more likely to see a upward break? and would it be wiser to wait for nfp to be released ?

I have also seen that red alert news, theres lots of news thats going to affect E/U today. I'm assuming that news is what going to break the triangle so i would wait and see.

Just stay alert.
X-man the legendary conqueror of markets
  • #3,643
  • Feb 3, 2012 2:53am Feb 3, 2012 2:53am
There seems to be a pullback candle in the first part of Asian session indicating a possible bullish market coming, also confirmed by TDI. Do we consider this as a trading confirmation or we better wait more?

Right now it seems like a bit hard to tell where to go. Looking at 4H chart we might also expect a slight at least 50 pips climb before going down again...
I'm still learning! George
  • #3,644
  • Feb 3, 2012 2:53am Feb 3, 2012 2:53am
Quoting X-Man
Today there might be a 170 pip movement once that triangle breaks at either end. The movement may happen all in 1 day or will run throughout the weekend or such a thing wont even happen. Be ready for any situation .

If that move has to occur then remember that we dont need all of it we will just need some of it. 50 to 100 will be more than enough
Hi X-Man,

Interesting that you brought up this symetrical triangle pattern.
I am sure many Elliot Wave purists will be looking very hard to see the wave pattern. Some may even force this 5-wave correction just to place a trade today.
But then when I looked at all the other EUR cross pairs, there maybe a slight hint which way it may go.
Note: ysterday D1 bar is an inside bar.
How do you trade this inside bar setup?
Attached Image
Honesty is a very expensive gift. You wont find it in cheap people.WBuffett
  • #3,645
  • Feb 3, 2012 3:04am Feb 3, 2012 3:04am
Here's one way some trendeline traders will trade this now.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Trade Trendline Break.png Size: 28 KB
Honesty is a very expensive gift. You wont find it in cheap people.WBuffett
  • #3,646
  • Feb 3, 2012 3:06am Feb 3, 2012 3:06am
Emmauel7788

Yes i did notice the inside bar on the daily chart.
When i see that then i know a break will follow.
But im not sure how to trade one when i see those inside bars.

Since there was a strong bullish run on the daily chart maybe it will continue to the up side

You can share ideas if you have
X-man the legendary conqueror of markets
  • #3,647
  • Feb 3, 2012 3:17am Feb 3, 2012 3:17am
Because its friday, which tends to be more quiet, and the triangle is not really narrow yet, I think its possible we'll continue to range today without a break.

Also, TDI is sticking to 50.

Otherwise I'd say we'll see a move up to the (1H) trendline and then a break down. Looking at the daily chart - its time.
Thoughts are things
  • #3,648
  • Feb 3, 2012 3:32am Feb 3, 2012 3:32am
Hmm.. Made mistake Shorting euro and GBP around this time.. Should've been patient a bit longer. Saw the pullback candle in M15, so tempting..
  • #3,649
  • Feb 3, 2012 3:34am Feb 3, 2012 3:34am
Today is Friday, in my time zone, we are all in Happy Hour now. Also right now, after two beers, the gambling mood sets in, so the trading mode is gambling.

If you ask me how to trade such a situation, here is my way.
It's call TLB meaning Trend Line Break. Take the first break when that fails do the trunaround. When this trade is supported by S3 methdology so much the better.

Every trade has a risk. Whether the SL is 50 pips or 100pips, the risk is the same.
If you do not know this and don't agree with this, you should not be trading until you learn what position sizing is all about.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: TLB 3 Feb turnaround trading.png Size: 30 KB
Honesty is a very expensive gift. You wont find it in cheap people.WBuffett
  • #3,650
  • Feb 3, 2012 4:36am Feb 3, 2012 4:36am
What about the US Non Farm Payroll @ 13.30 GMT?
Could it be the market mover?
  • #3,651
  • Edited 5:09am Feb 3, 2012 4:47am | Edited 5:09am
its making hh lh now i jumped in at 1.31698 do you think bad move? long
  • #3,652
  • Feb 3, 2012 5:02am Feb 3, 2012 5:02am
Quoting alshaheen
its making hh lh now i jumped in at 1.31698 do you think bad move?
Long?
I'm long @ 1.3174 so... No, not a bad move to me.
As stated by emmanuel, I waited for PA to break above upper trendline.
TDI is positive, PAB closin over 4EMA, so I thought it OK to pull the trigger.
  • #3,653
  • Feb 3, 2012 5:21am Feb 3, 2012 5:21am
Hello Dr. Zulu. Are you sure we had a trendline break? My charts show the trendline around 1.3195. And PA has not been up that far in the last few hours yet.

I am looking at the 4 hour chart. Is that the Time frame you have the trendline on.

Sorry but a little confused.


Also if I am not mistaken we must have a candle/bar closing above/below the trendline to validate the break

DD

ps could you post the chart where you have the break of trendline.
  • #3,654
  • Feb 3, 2012 5:22am Feb 3, 2012 5:22am
Quoting Dr_Zulu
Long?
I'm long @ 1.3174 so... No, not a bad move to me.
As stated by emmanuel, I waited for PA to break above upper trendline.
TDI is positive, PAB closin over 4EMA, so I thought it OK to pull the trigger.
I'm also long at 1.3177. SL 25pips, so targetting TP around 1.3200.
  • #3,655
  • Feb 3, 2012 5:26am Feb 3, 2012 5:26am
Quoting Pipsky
I'm also long at 1.3177. SL 25pips, so targetting TP around 1.3200.
well, my first TP1 is yesterday's spike high...let's see who will go near there.

manage this trade tightly as liquidity is low prior to NFP.

there will be another opportunity after 'knee-jerk' reaction by NFP
Honesty is a very expensive gift. You wont find it in cheap people.WBuffett
  • #3,656
  • Feb 3, 2012 5:27am Feb 3, 2012 5:27am
Sorry, I cannot post charts since I'm not home and using a tablet.
If u look emmanuel chart above, TL break seems to me around 1.3174.
I'm looking at hourly chart though.
I understood if long candle breaks range/resistance/trendline entering with candle still open is ok?
Need some expert advice!
  • #3,657
  • Feb 3, 2012 5:28am Feb 3, 2012 5:28am
dildubai i think drzulu is talking about the upper pennant res line, am i right dr zulu?
  • #3,658
  • Feb 3, 2012 5:38am Feb 3, 2012 5:38am
Quoting Dr_Zulu
Sorry, I cannot post charts since I'm not home and using a tablet.
If u look emmanuel chart above, TL break seems to me around 1.3174.
I'm looking at hourly chart though.
I understood if long candle breaks range/resistance/trendline entering with candle still open is ok?
Need some expert advice!
if you draw the TL connecting the fractals , the breakline price is 1.3165.
But this is not precision engineering trading.
You still must follow PA. That break candle is much longer than the previous candles.
Remember one rule is not to chase price!
A reasonable retracement of 38% to 50% is always good to get a better entry price (EP).
Learn to be patient*** when looking for a good EP.

***Doug Zalesky mantra#2
Honesty is a very expensive gift. You wont find it in cheap people.WBuffett
  • #3,659
  • Feb 3, 2012 5:38am Feb 3, 2012 5:38am
1H Candle is above the trendline but still open, will have to wait 20 minutes for a new candle. According to me this isn't a real break through.

Previous candle closed almost on the trendline at 1.3172
  • #3,660
  • Feb 3, 2012 5:41am Feb 3, 2012 5:41am
Quoting Liberum
1H Candle is above the trendline but still open, will have to wait 20 minutes for a new candle. According to me this isn't a real break through.

Previous candle closed exactly on the trendline.
I think so too.. Not enough strength, and break is not convincing enough. will just stay put.. and avoid NFP
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