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  • #1,461
  • Jan 24, 2012 8:04am Jan 24, 2012 8:04am
Yesterday I posted a chart of gold. I called where the current price was a point of reflection. Price threatened to downtrend line and has since retreated today.

By the way, if gold is a safety net how come it is going down with the stock market it is supposed to save us from

Today I post a daily chart of silver. We have the 100sma on the chart - the blue line. We also have previous support/resistance on the chart - the red line.
We have an overbought stochastics which is turning. Last but not the least we have a spinning top candle pattern.

I am bearish. We have had a deep retracement of the fall and I am looking for a turn downwards. Do your own d/d. If we take out the highs of the spinning top then all bets are off like we did in the eurcad


Olu
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If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
  • #1,462
  • Jan 25, 2012 7:52am Jan 25, 2012 7:52am
Gold update:

We are retreating away from the downtrend line some more today. The current candle has not closed so we cant say we have a reversal yet. I have taken some profit from this observation. If this candle closes below the previous weekly candle we have so more conviction.

Olu
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If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
  • #1,463
  • Jan 25, 2012 9:08am Jan 25, 2012 9:08am
The FTSE100 (UK's stock premier market index) is a structure known as an ending diagonal. A break of this pattern cold mean the top is in or at least we are in for a good fall. A potential double top is also in place as shown on the chart.

I am selling a breakdown from the pattern...

Olu
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If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
  • #1,464
  • Jan 25, 2012 12:26pm Jan 25, 2012 12:26pm
Quoting Olu
Gold update:

We are retreating away from the downtrend line some more today. The current candle has not closed so we cant say we have a reversal yet. I have taken some profit from this observation. If this candle closes below the previous weekly candle we have so more conviction.

Olu
Markets and gold have gone the other way as we speak. The Bernanke Effect...
We now have a breakout above the downtrend line. Lets see whether it will continue. If we settle back inside the triangle then I'll sell. If not I will be looking to buy...

Olu


Olu
If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
  • #1,465
  • Jan 26, 2012 7:34am Jan 26, 2012 7:34am
There is a song that goes like that. I think I have heard that line before. This is true in Forex and Trading in general too.

Before the Bernanke speech:
The US$ was holding support
Gold was regressing back into the middle of the triangle
Commodities didnt know where to go

After the speech (in fact it started during the speech):
The US$ sold off
Stock markets roared upwards
Gold skipped over the downtrend line with ease like a well trained athlete

Technical damage has been done to the US$ and it appears only terrible fundamental news can turn this around at the moment. It is taking it on the chin big time.

Bernanke said the interest rates would stay low till 2014 and refused to rule out QE??

The reaction to this news was positive for the markets abd negative for the us$

Olu
If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
  • #1,466
  • Jan 26, 2012 8:00am Jan 26, 2012 8:00am
Here is a trade that will work if the stock market is rising. And why not, in response to Bernanke's words

Check this out:

An entrenched downtrend
Some retracement
Now slightly bouncing off the support line
A break of this line says new lows...

Do your own d/d

Olu
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If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
  • #1,467
  • Jan 27, 2012 7:30am Jan 27, 2012 7:30am
Find uploaded a weekly chart of the Dax - the premier stock index of Germany.
The rally off the Sept/Oct 2011 lows cannot be described as anything but impressive. In fact a lot of market participants missed the rally completely - being sceptical all the way to the top. Your truly as well.

We are right at the 61.8 retracement of the downmove as we speak. This a good area for a turn so we need to keep a watchful eye on it.

On the other hand, not to be married to the bearish possibility alone this index has put in a 123 on the weekly. This is powerful as well. dont like the fact that it is overbought as shown on the chart but there is no turn in sight.

By the way according to Elliott wave theory (mind, I am not an expert here) if we get to 7000 then the expectations for a fall to new lows is off...

Olu
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If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
  • #1,468
  • Jan 27, 2012 8:04am Jan 27, 2012 8:04am
This is one to watch. I am bearish on this one looking for 12 area ()
I have uploaded the daily and the weekly charts to show the reaction occurring at the 38.2% Fib. This level is a well know area for a reversal to the true trend which is down. On the daily chart you can see a lot of consolidation. consolidation before renewed selling?
Accumulation for a price rise?

Stochastics say sell.
Price below the 100sma on both charts. Actually repelled price on the daily chart.

What do you say?

Olu
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If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
  • #1,469
  • Jan 28, 2012 6:33pm Jan 28, 2012 6:33pm
Quoting Olu
This is one to watch. I am bearish on this one looking for 12 area ()
I have uploaded the daily and the weekly charts to show the reaction occurring at the 38.2% Fib. This level is a well know area for a reversal to the true trend which is down. On the daily chart you can see a lot of consolidation. consolidation before renewed selling?
Accumulation for a price rise?

Stochastics say sell.
Price below the 100sma on both charts. Actually repelled price on the daily chart.

What do you say?

Olu



I say you place the trade short on the break...manage your risk...and set & forget and see where she goes.

You might see a low pivot sometime next fall.

Good analysis Olu.

Big picture guy.



golfer
  • #1,470
  • Jan 29, 2012 4:40pm Jan 29, 2012 4:40pm
Quoting golferfx
I say you place the trade short on the break...manage your risk...and set & forget and see where she goes.

You might see a low pivot sometime next fall.

Good analysis Olu.

Big picture guy.



golfer
That is exactly what I plan to do. Thanks Golfer

Olu
If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
  • #1,471
  • Jan 31, 2012 7:06am Jan 31, 2012 7:06am
Find uploaded a daily and weekly chart of the above mentioned pair. It shows that we are in a downtrend and at the juncture where more technical damage is about to be done. The trend in this pair is firmly

Please note that this pair is a slow burner. If we are going to those red lines shown on the charts it would test your patience before it gets there. But we are trend traders and we have a trend here...

Olu
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If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
  • #1,472
  • Jan 31, 2012 6:06pm Jan 31, 2012 6:06pm
One of the simple strategies I trade is flagging a buy in the usdchf. Price has bounced off the 100sma showing reversal candle patterns (highlighted) also the stochastics have crossed up from oversold levels. A drop below the reversal pivot area means all bets are off...

Olu
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If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
  • #1,473
  • Jan 31, 2012 6:07pm Jan 31, 2012 6:07pm
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  • #1,474
  • Jan 31, 2012 6:12pm Jan 31, 2012 6:12pm
Find uploaded a daily chart of the eurgbp showing a break of an upward sloping support line and out of a channel. The Stochastics are firmly crossed down and show a negative bias. Price is below the 100sma as well. This one is a slow burner sometimes but with the trouble in Europe in focus we could go down some more quickly.

Olu
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If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
  • #1,475
  • Feb 1, 2012 8:02am Feb 1, 2012 8:02am
Hi

See chart for comments

Olu
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If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
  • #1,476
  • Feb 1, 2012 6:29pm Feb 1, 2012 6:29pm
Olu trend trader,


We talked about corn awhile back.

Parabolic move to just eclipse the old high.

Big 1-2-3 weekly.

Good example of purchasing put options at extreme highs.

Give yourself ample time, 6-9 months out.

We should see lows around $3.50/$3.00 where the bubble started.

It will take time but you will be richly rewarded.





golfer
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  • #1,477
  • Feb 1, 2012 7:28pm Feb 1, 2012 7:28pm
Quoting golferfx
Olu trend trader,


We talked about corn awhile back.

Parabolic move to just eclipse the old high.

Big 1-2-3 weekly.

Good example of purchasing put options at extreme highs.

Give yourself ample time, 6-9 months out.

We should see lows around $3.50/$3.00 where the bubble started.

It will take time but you will be richly rewarded.

golfer
Thanks Golfer for the heads up. This will be actioned asap

Olu
If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
  • #1,478
  • Feb 2, 2012 11:44am Feb 2, 2012 11:44am
This image says it all. Plan your trade and trade your plan.

Found it on ForexFactory. Thanks TimTamMad
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If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
  • #1,479
  • Feb 3, 2012 9:09am Feb 3, 2012 9:09am
Find uploaded a chart of the dollar index (8h).

We see price breaking out of a channel combined with the MACD turning up. Note the candle has not closed as we speak (type!)

From here we can keep on going or dive back into the channel. One more thing the dollar index is going up, at the moment, not because of the general weakness of all other currencies against the dollar but because of the weakness of the euro against the dollar. The euro is the biggest component of the dollar index.

Olu
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If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
  • #1,480
  • Feb 3, 2012 12:24pm Feb 3, 2012 12:24pm
Probably a trade for Monday as the candle has not closed yet.

Price is below the 100sma
price has broken down below an uptrend line (shown on chart)
Price is just on horizontal support (also shown)
Stochastics has turned down

Fundamentally the Canadian economy is stronger that any of the European economies. Being so close to the USA and with the figures out of there getting 'better' by the day. CAD should outperform GBP


Olu
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If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
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