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Where can I learn more about Price Action like those in James16 charts? 9 replies

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james16 Chart Thread

  • #106,641
  • Feb 1, 2012 8:04am Feb 1, 2012 8:04am
Quoting Variance
Hi PB,

Thank you for posting the trade.

I'm glad you've posted this because the "big bullish candle" before the "small pin bar" is a type of scenario that I've always avoided EVEN when I see a big pitbull pinbar to follow.

What specific factors would cause you to trade a little poodle like that after a big candle?

I know Jim and Mike used to trade them back in pre-2007 ish but only when there were tons of confluence.

Consider the following chart - the pin is actually fairly good sized but I would still consider it to be in the...
Hey V

The short answer is, leave the poodle at home

It's so much easier to wait for the pitbull bars/scenarios. This is coming from experience. In this case I would not touch that bar because it has a weak close and it is coming off a LARGE bullish move that fighting that is just not worth my time.

2 keys to trading smaller bars for me are, they work better in less trending markets(ie not fighting a huge move like your chart), and also I will watch the FTA like a HAWK and not ever look to take a big loss. That generally means for me quick in, quick out.

Hope that helps
Mike
  • #106,642
  • Feb 1, 2012 8:10am Feb 1, 2012 8:10am
Quoting zamfir
Thanks ghous for the explanation.

Now, i see the PPZ and PA around them. But how is the smart money moving around these areas . I m confused about this.
remember the smart money is only the person/people/entity that actually end up profitable. So it's not one group of people who are constantly on the right side moving the entire market. It's simply the flow of money in and out of the market creating potential opportunities for us to exploit as well. Don't be tricked into thinking that because someone has deep pockets they are smart money, or because someone has little money they can't be profiting. Some of the biggest banks get hammered in the markets, just as huge hedge funds come and go all the time. The idea is to understand the overall flow of money and where the better opportunities are. This is exactly what we do in this thread. By analyzing where strong opportunities may exist and thus how as a trader we want to play off that. My edge is created because I can read a chart and understand where high probability scenarios exist and how to manage those scenarios so that in the long run I may profit.

We must learn a lot of individual concepts and then how to blend those concepts into a workable method. This takes awhile for most. But also don't over think things too much. It's more important to understand the chart and concepts, and how to blend these concepts

Best
Mike
  • #106,643
  • Feb 1, 2012 8:12am Feb 1, 2012 8:12am
Quoting Pokemon
XAGUSD(Silver)
Not bad pinbar(not broken yet)+78.6 fibo+161 fibo+resistance
Hello Pokemon,
careful Sir, that is NOT a pinbar. looks like one, but strictly speaking it is not.
hope im seeing the right candle on your cherried charts.
  • #106,644
  • Feb 1, 2012 8:13am Feb 1, 2012 8:13am
Quoting mbqb11
Hey V

The short answer is, leave the poodle at home

It's so much easier to wait for the pitbull bars/scenarios. This is coming from experience. In this case I would not touch that bar because it has a weak close and it is coming off a LARGE bullish move that fighting that is just not worth my time.

2 keys to trading smaller bars for me are, they work better in less trending markets(ie not fighting a huge move like your chart), and also I will watch the FTA like a HAWK and not ever look to take a big loss. That generally means for me quick...
Wow!! Thanks Mike, You ROCK!

I'm just curious, what about this following chart here where the pre-candle is just slightly bigger than the signal pinbar? Am I being obcessively conservative in that scenario?
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  • #106,645
  • Feb 1, 2012 8:16am Feb 1, 2012 8:16am
Quoting Variance
Wow!! Thanks Mike, You ROCK!

I'm just curious, what about this following chart here where the pre-candle is just slightly bigger than the signal pinbar? Am I being obcessively conservative in that scenario?
Hey V

I look at things visually as opposed to exactly. In this case we can just visually see the size of that bar is very good compared to most bars around us. Nice long tail, nice strong close, and HUGE box area. Look at that flip of s/r (PPZ) right on your box area). That is a HUGE amount of confluence and strong area. Also notice how your bar closed UNDER that area

Best
Mike
  • #106,646
  • Feb 1, 2012 8:16am Feb 1, 2012 8:16am
Quoting zamfir
Thanks ghous for the explanation.

Now, i see the PPZ and PA around them. But how is the smart money moving around these areas . I m confused about this.
The bar marked on the chart is what we refer to as a BUOB (bullish outside bar) which is a special bar that exceeds the entire range of at least the most recent bar before it.

At the james16thread it is highly emphasized that we want to see these (and other PA bars) at strong and obvious PPZs and round numbers and other areas that come with some sort of definitive confluence. This is one great way of ensuring that you are aligning yourself with the bigger traders right away because these traders love to be active at key points in the market (swing highs/lows, PPZs, round numbers etc) so in synchronizing your moves with them you are essentially following their actions.

Notice the look of the Bullish outside bar? Do you see the tail penetrates quite a bit into the area underneath the really strong support? What is that indicating? Well price was pushed through support to lure traders into selling. Had this been a true breakout price would have either shot down to the bottom of the earth or would have given a nice rounded pullback to the support area to test it as resistance before plummeting. Instead price rocketed back up really sharply all the way to form a lovely bullish outside bar at a swing low to make an A+ long setup.

Do you see how the bigger traders here used technical analysis to position themselves for a bullish onslaught on the currency pair? They used two forms of liquidity for their longs. 1) Sellers who wrongly believed they had caught a break from strong support. 2) Hitting stops of traders long in the market (stop losses for traders long will obviously be sell orders hence creating more selling activity to fill in the huge buy orders of bigger trades.) that were tucked under the support area.

Here we really don't care about all this background stuff and focus on trying to see all this live on our charts through taking only the outstanding bars at good locations with enough confluence.

****------****
It really isn't a requirement to go into the technical "why' of the methods we use to trade here to essentially be successful with the method but I appreciate your willingness to want to divulge the true essence of the thread and the material taught here to understand its true merit.


g.
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I believe . . .
  • #106,647
  • Feb 1, 2012 8:21am Feb 1, 2012 8:21am
Quoting zamfir
Now, i see the PPZ and PA around them. But how is the smart money moving around these areas . I m confused about this.
in a nutshell, the smart money like to buy low & sell high. the PA around PPZs show what they are doing/what their intentions are.

u wont be able to digest everything instantly.
but u will, in due time, Sir.
just keep at it.

Quoting Variance
...I'm just curious, what about this following chart here where the pre-candle is just slightly bigger than the signal pinbar? Am I being obsessively conservative in that scenario?
nothing wrong if u dont find this potential setup tasty. u have to trade what YOU are comfortable with.
as Mike said, i'm quite sure some here would trade that same setup, based on the overall scenario Mike pointed out.
  • #106,648
  • Feb 1, 2012 8:23am Feb 1, 2012 8:23am
Quoting mbqb11
Hey V

I look at things visually as opposed to exactly. In this case we can just visually see the size of that bar is very good compared to most bars around us. Nice long tail, nice strong close, and HUGE box area. Look at that flip of s/r (PPZ) right on your box area). That is a HUGE amount of confluence and strong area. Also notice how your bar closed UNDER that area

Best
Mike
Amazing.... Mike, you are the TRUE MARKET WIZARD!

You've just cleared 90% of all the S**T in my head LOL
  • #106,649
  • Feb 1, 2012 8:24am Feb 1, 2012 8:24am
Quoting Variance
Hi PB,

Thank you for posting the trade.

I'm glad you've posted this because the "big bullish candle" before the "small pin bar" is a type of scenario that I've always avoided EVEN when I see a big pitbull pinbar to follow.

What specific factors would cause you to trade a little poodle like that after a big candle?

I know Jim and Mike used to trade them back in pre-2007 ish but only when there were tons of confluence.

Consider the following chart - the pin is actually fairly good sized but I would still consider it to be in the same family...

What pair & TF is that?
As Mike said, you don't want to bother taking small bars.
  • #106,650
  • Feb 1, 2012 8:26am Feb 1, 2012 8:26am
I didn't get the Memo that Today was the J16 All Star Break.
Mike & Ghous Sup too.
Just remember to keep your stick on the ice.


B
Hey you guys... what is your J16 take on Gold these days? ICCE has me rather Bullish. Chasing 1775 or so.
  • #106,651
  • Feb 1, 2012 8:29am Feb 1, 2012 8:29am
Quoting Pinbar
What pair is that?
Sorry PB, those are intra day trades on the majors pairs... I intentionally removed the times, etc to ensure Mike wouldn't receive 10 emails next week from newbies who've blown their accounts....

V
  • #106,652
  • Feb 1, 2012 8:35am Feb 1, 2012 8:35am
Quoting Variance
Sorry PB, those are intra day trades on the majors pairs... I intentionally removed the times, etc to ensure Mike wouldn't receive 10 emails next week from newbies who've blown their accounts....

V
So you won't mention the pair eh?

Not sure I like answering people's questions who do not answer mine.
  • #106,653
  • Feb 1, 2012 8:41am Feb 1, 2012 8:41am
Quoting Pinbar
So you won't mention the pair eh?
It's AUD/USD on a very low TF - that and the EURUSD are the only ones that I trade at the moment, sometimes not even on(in?) the spot market.
  • #106,654
  • Feb 1, 2012 8:41am Feb 1, 2012 8:41am
Quoting Bemac
I didn't get the Memo that Today was the J16 All Star Break.
Mike & Ghous Sup too.
Just remember to keep your stick on the ice.


B
Hey you guys... what is your J16 take on Gold these days? ICCE has me rather Bullish. Chasing 1775 or so.
Heya buddy !

here is my gold chart
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  • #106,655
  • Feb 1, 2012 8:47am Feb 1, 2012 8:47am
Quoting Bemac
I didn't get the Memo that Today was the J16 All Star Break.
Mike & Ghous Sup too.
Just remember to keep your stick on the ice.
Hey you guys... what is your J16 take on Gold these days? ICCE has me rather Bullish. Chasing 1775 or so.
hahah. another lurker.

make that Mike, Ghous & Bemac
probably, if 1730-1740 holds, u might get that 1775 soon. if not, maybe later
  • #106,656
  • Feb 1, 2012 8:49am Feb 1, 2012 8:49am
Quoting mbqb11
Heya buddy !

here is my gold chart
Thanks Mike. Yeah I see the current Hesitation but a Break up puts my 1775 in real contention. As a matter of fact, Yours shows 1780's to be in view.
Thanks again.

B
  • #106,657
  • Feb 1, 2012 8:50am Feb 1, 2012 8:50am
Quoting Variance
It's AUD/USD on a very low TF - that and the EURUSD are the only ones that I trade at the moment, sometimes not even on(in?) the spot market.

Might want to watch out for this area.
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  • #106,658
  • Feb 1, 2012 8:51am Feb 1, 2012 8:51am
Quoting supremeChaos
hahah. another lurker.

make that Mike, Ghous & Bemac
probably, if 1730-1740 holds, u might get that 1775 soon. if not, maybe later
'Wazzup Sup? Comfort in friendship. That feels nice.

B
  • #106,659
  • Feb 1, 2012 8:53am Feb 1, 2012 8:53am
Quoting supremeChaos
Hello Pokemon,
careful Sir, that is NOT a pinbar. looks like one, but strictly speaking it is not.
hope im seeing the right candle on your cherried charts.
Sorry,can you explain, please. Why its not a pinbar?
  • #106,660
  • Feb 1, 2012 8:54am Feb 1, 2012 8:54am
Quoting supremeChaos
hahah. another lurker.

make that Mike, Ghous & Bemac
probably, if 1730-1740 holds, u might get that 1775 soon. if not, maybe later

I want to know how you guys get to be invisible.
Isn't that new cloaking technology? LOL
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