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Where can I learn more about Price Action like those in James16 charts? 9 replies

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james16 Chart Thread

  • #106,621
  • Feb 1, 2012 6:10am Feb 1, 2012 6:10am
Quoting beebolbod
Very bold! you've learned this stuff well PB... how long you been using J16 now? I'm currently stuck with consistency. I'm ok on daily and above and have moved down a TF or two and am getting caught out much more now.
Couple of years but, this is more of what Jarroo has been teaching me, just trying to get more confidence and that small BEOB taught me a great deal, even in the face of that massive bullish bar 2 bars back.

If you pick your areas on the higher TF and watch price till you go blue in the face, it will teach us a great deal. We don't even need to demo these when we start out, just watching them is enough, I feel.

Then we can demo them and get confidence learning the quirks that price can perform at these areas, then we trade them.
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  • #106,622
  • Feb 1, 2012 6:13am Feb 1, 2012 6:13am
Quoting beebolbod
Please take those cherries off your charts.... personally speaking i ignore your charts solely based on the cherries. I just cant see clearly what's going on.
Sorry, i fixed my chart above.
Im also not take this. Just posted it to make sure.
  • #106,623
  • Feb 1, 2012 6:33am Feb 1, 2012 6:33am
Quoting Pokemon
Sorry, i fixed my chart above.
Im also not take this. Just posted it to make sure.
no apology needed m8... i just couldn't see what was going on.
  • #106,624
  • Feb 1, 2012 6:39am Feb 1, 2012 6:39am
SL hit.
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  • #106,625
  • Feb 1, 2012 6:40am Feb 1, 2012 6:40am
Just spent 10 mins composing this post and then previewed it and closed the browser.... grrr..... anyway......

For PB/Jaroo really but any helpful advice welcome from anyone.....

I'm struggling with my entries on PBT CB/CA at the moment. I can see levels well, understand the concept but seem to get a few wrong lately. My problem is not wanting to miss moves so i'm snatching at things.

Is this one worth looking at? It's something i'm seeing with space to run short and some decent confluence around this area.... to the charts......

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With more detail at daily level...

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So i'm wondering how, if at all, anyone else would enter this and if not, why?

Cheers
  • #106,626
  • Feb 1, 2012 6:44am Feb 1, 2012 6:44am
Quoting dfumagalli
The patterns are secondary to what price is doing.
In this case, you have:

- bearish flag and triangle => short entries are safer
- 4 hours support holding Jan 26 swing up
- weekly (read: ultra strong) support right below, markets love to go get liquidity at nearby important price levels.

So price went (again) to hit the weekly support like in the swing before, to take liquidity up, no patterns were invalidated.
Hey dragon man
Interesting views here including liquidity stuff . I assume this is stuff from the other threads from your signature . To be honest it is new to me , so little more details would be easier to understand
Thanks
  • #106,627
  • Feb 1, 2012 7:06am Feb 1, 2012 7:06am
Quoting Rust
Hey dragon man
Interesting views here including liquidity stuff . I assume this is stuff from the other threads from your signature . To be honest it is new to me , so little more details would be easier to understand
Thanks
And i actually traded from top of range 1.2445 with TP just above the lower line.... but that broke... another 50 pips. I was watching it at the time so i took some off table at original TP and kept some open and moved stops as price carried on down.

The pattern looks invalid to me now.
  • #106,628
  • Feb 1, 2012 7:13am Feb 1, 2012 7:13am
Came across this article and thought it may be useful



Meet Ralph.

He's fiddled with demo trading for two weeks and decided that it's time to put real money on the line. After setting up his very own live account with a broker, Ralph opens the platform right away to input his very first trade.

"It can't be that difficult. All I have to do is find a trade setup, click a few buttons here and there, and I'll raking in the dough! I can picture myself now living the life of a superstar Forex trader: making piles of cash and cruising down Sunset Boulevard in my brand new Ferrari, with Scarlett Johansson looking hotter than the devil's underpants in the passenger seat! This is ain't gonna be no thing but a chicken wing!"

Upon entering his trade, Ralph's account shows a tiny loss, probably just because of that nasty pip spread. After a while, price starts moving against the direction of Ralph's trade and he's starting to feel a bit on edge. Negative 15 pips... 20... 25... A few more candles later, his palms start to get sweaty as he sees his account go deeper in the red. Before he knows it, his trade gets automatically closed by his broker on account of a margin call.

Believe it or not, this happens to a lot of traders who aren't quite ready to make that jump from demo to live. They decide that they've had enough playing around with toy money and feel they're ready for the real McCoy. But once they go live, they forget everything they learned that made them profitable on demo trading.

So, before you retire your demo account and see your account in flames, I have a nice little trading experience check list you must be able to answer an unequivocal, resounding, and decisive "YES!":

Have you tried trading different time frames?
Have you experimented with trading different styles?
Have you been trading on a regular basis for six months or longer?
Can you properly rationalize each trade you take?
Are your winning trades outweighing your losing trades over a long term?
Do you have a process for recording and reviewing your trades to improve performance?
Have you made adjustments in your trading system after becoming discontent with the outcome?
Are your winning trades outweighing your losing trades over a long term?
And this leads us the most important question of all,

Have you developed a trading plan and process that works for YOU?

If you are leaning more towards "No" or a feeble "I think so," you may want to reconsider going live. If you're already trading with a live account but you're feeling the heat after a couple of losses here and there, maybe you should take a step back and reevaluate. After all, there's no shame in staying in demo trading first.

Demo trading is all part of the process - it's there to help us become the traders we want to be without risking a dime. It's there to help practice proper discipline and strict risk management rules. Most importantly, demo trading helps provide the needed experience in different market environments for each trader to find his trading niche.
"Greed is good,greed is right,greed works"
  • #106,629
  • Feb 1, 2012 7:14am Feb 1, 2012 7:14am
I've been touch trading this rising TL (which i drew a week or two ago) for a while now. Each level has been respected perfectly for a good while and now we have a new 8 year high again. Interesting area to watch as price is bouncing to the pip on this channel and now we've broken a significant level.... lets see how it behaves.

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  • #106,630
  • Feb 1, 2012 7:19am Feb 1, 2012 7:19am
Quoting Gekko78
Came across this article and thought it may be useful



Meet Ralph.

He's fiddled with demo trading for two weeks and decided that it's time to put real money on the line. After setting up his very own live account with a broker, Ralph opens the platform right away to input his very first trade.

"It can't be that difficult. All I have to do is find a trade setup, click a few buttons here and there, and I'll raking in the dough! I can picture myself now living the life of a superstar Forex trader: making piles of cash and cruising down...
I would also suggest trading pennies for a few months before getting the big money out. Doing it with real money is different from demo. The psychology is different.
  • #106,631
  • Feb 1, 2012 7:23am Feb 1, 2012 7:23am
I have a question to all senior members here.

You all know that it's the smart money that moves any market and we the herd is always on the other side. Tell me if i am wrong here.

How can PA help us in identifying the movements of smart money?
  • #106,632
  • Feb 1, 2012 7:31am Feb 1, 2012 7:31am
Quoting beebolbod
Just spent 10 mins composing this post and then previewed it and closed the browser.... grrr..... anyway......

For PB/Jaroo really but any helpful advice welcome from anyone.....

I'm struggling with my entries on PBT CB/CA at the moment. I can see levels well, understand the concept but seem to get a few wrong lately. My problem is not wanting to miss moves so i'm snatching at things.

Is this one worth looking at? It's something i'm seeing with space to run short and some decent confluence around this area.... to the charts......

Attachment

With...

Learning not to fiddle with the areas in the middle, (The thin green lines) is important and this is Exactly where I am at right now and battling myself.

Note how this whole area is a PPZ Zone.
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  • #106,633
  • Feb 1, 2012 7:31am Feb 1, 2012 7:31am
Quoting zamfir
I have a question to all senior members here.

You all know that it's the smart money that moves any market and we the herd is always on the other side. Tell me if i am wrong here.

How can PA help us in identifying the movements of smart money?

Check this post out from GreenHaze . .its cool . .

(sorry post and run) . .


Quoting Greenhaze
.. . . . Retail is still perceiving eurusd as a good short and most dealers have their inventory growing on the long side (there are a number of sources on the internet to check that out) .

It might be seen as too complicated at first for some guys here but all these pitbull PBs and other strong bars are nothing else then money shifting from weak to strong hands.
Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
  • #106,634
  • Feb 1, 2012 7:34am Feb 1, 2012 7:34am
Quoting zamfir
I have a question to all senior members here.

You all know that it's the smart money that moves any market and we the herd is always on the other side. Tell me if i am wrong here.

How can PA help us in identifying the movements of smart money?
Whatever they do the charts will tell and show. PA is the tell tale signatures of big boys. Now proper interpretation of PA is up to us. There is an aspect of pure TA and there is the aspect of trained intuition. Both applied correctly will sniff out the actions/intentions of the big boys. The herd are not yet masters of applying correctly. We are all learning so that we will change away from the herd's camp. hope this helps...

Olu
If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
  • #106,635
  • Feb 1, 2012 7:40am Feb 1, 2012 7:40am
Quoting zamfir
I have a question to all senior members here.

You all know that it's the smart money that moves any market and we the herd is always on the other side. Tell me if i am wrong here.

How can PA help us in identifying the movements of smart money?
You all know that it's the smart money that moves any market and we the herd is always on the other side. Tell me if i am wrong here.

yes you are right. And its not that they enjoy killing retail traders, they need them to be buying to take the other side of their huge sell orders and vice versa. The biggest worry to a trader who wants to sell $50 mil worth of eur/usd is the other side of the transaction. Who will be willing to buy the $50 mill at his preferred price level? This trader hence is looking for instances in the market when demand exceeds supply at his area of interest (prices are moving up sharply) to take advantage of the situation and hit his shorts to make sure he doesn't cause slippages against himself. This is why you'll see sharp up moves being often followed by sharp down moves and vice versa. This is also why a news event will often only succeed in printing a spike ( a sharp move in one direction and then a quick reversal to destroy the point of the initial move really) rather than a longer term trend.

This is precisely why we see false breaks, and stops being hunted. Prices will often penetrate S/R areas only to get rejected violently. Not that these bigger traders have anything against poor traders who thought price had broken the area for good, they really want their orders filled. Its unfair but that's how zero sum games work.

How can PA help us in identifying the movements of smart money?

Excellent question!

There are many ways of getting a good idea of the "smart money" using P/A One way is to use VSA (Volumes spread analysis) which is really like a measure of the action you see on the chart compared to trading activity in that period. Another way, amongst many others, is to use specific bar patterns (like pin bars outside bars etc) at solid locations (round numbers, VERY OBVIOUS S/R areas we refer to as PPZs). The James16 thread extensively covers this method of reading price.

Hope this clears things up a bit.

g.
I believe . . .
  • #106,636
  • Edited 7:59am Feb 1, 2012 7:44am | Edited 7:59am
Quoting Pinbar
SL hit.
Hi PB,

Thank you for posting the trade.

I'm glad you've posted this because the "big bullish candle" before the "small pin bar" is a type of scenario that I've always avoided EVEN when I see a big pitbull pinbar to follow.

What specific factors would cause you to trade a little poodle like that after a big candle?

I know Jim and Mike used to trade them back in pre-2007 ish but only when there were tons of confluence.

Consider the following chart - the pin is actually fairly good sized but I would still consider it to be in the same family as the poodles, especially when we see such big candles pre-move. If it wasn't for the obvious and the well-formedness conditions of the confluent factors, I could have easily skipped it. OK, that may be a little extreme but say if the pinbar was a little smaller, I could call it an easy pass.

My question to you (and to Jim and Mike) is - what do we really need in order to take small poodle pins after massive candles pre-move apart from fibs and PPZ's and/or ret from breakout patterns?



*EDIT* Sorry... that sounded a little off.... What I meant was - "I'm finding it hard to take poodles even when there's good space and good confluence. Could you please help me???"

V
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  • #106,637
  • Feb 1, 2012 7:53am Feb 1, 2012 7:53am
Quoting ghous
You all know that it's the smart money that moves any market and we the herd is always on the other side. Tell me if i am wrong here.

yes you are right. And its not that they enjoy killing retail traders, they need them to be buying to take the other side of their huge sell orders and vice versa. The biggest worry to a trader who wants to sell $50 mil worth of eur/usd is the other side of the transaction. Who will be willing to buy the $50 mill at his preferred price level? This trader hence is looking for instances in the market when...
Thanks ghous for the explanation.

Now, i see the PPZ and PA around them. But how is the smart money moving around these areas . I m confused about this.
  • #106,638
  • Feb 1, 2012 8:02am Feb 1, 2012 8:02am
Quoting Fxnumen
Hello Mike,

Please explain to me what your thought processes will be like when the inside bar(arrow) on the chart below formed. Your reasons not to take the trade or your reasons to take it and how you'll manage it.

Cheers.

Ralph
Hey Ralph

I don't trade inside bars on anything less then the daily. Their are just too many on the lower timeframes by the nature of the amount of data in one single bar. So for me this would be an easy pass. I also recommend learning to trade these bars especially inside bars on the higher timeframes. I think they are much easier

Best
Mike
  • #106,639
  • Feb 1, 2012 8:03am Feb 1, 2012 8:03am
Quoting zamfir
Thanks ghous for the explanation.

Now, i see the PPZ and PA around them. But how is the smart money moving around these areas . I m confused about this.
Lets not forget that some of the 'smart money' is extremely stupid at times. All financial instruments/institutions have myriad examples of idiots squandering billions on stuff many of us would pass over in an instant.
  • #106,640
  • Feb 1, 2012 8:03am Feb 1, 2012 8:03am
Quoting Variance
Hi PB,

Thank you for posting the trade.

I'm glad you've posted this because the "big bullish candle" before the "small pin bar" is a type of scenario that I've always avoided EVEN when I see a big pitbull pinbar to follow.

What specific factors would cause you to trade a little poodle like that after a big candle?

I know Jim and Mike used to trade them back in pre-2007 ish but only when there were tons of confluence.

Consider the following chart - the pin is actually fairly good sized but I would still consider it to be in the same family...

I am by no way recommending people take an M15 setup or even watch such low a TF. But, this is basically what was going on in my head when I say the BEOB on M15.

Note that this was a Monthly area, I was watching and took this M15 bar at.
It was not just a small M15 BEOB taken anywhere on the chart.
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