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USD/JPY Discussion

  • #29,941
  • Jan 31, 2012 10:28am Jan 31, 2012 10:28am
Quoting NickMite
I am sorry, I am new here, so I don't know how to pm

Though, I give you my e-mail here -> [email protected]

btw, thanks for properties
No worries, sent!
  • #29,942
  • Jan 31, 2012 12:45pm Jan 31, 2012 12:45pm
Quoting fosking
No worries, sent!
Many thanks
  • #29,943
  • Jan 31, 2012 1:08pm Jan 31, 2012 1:08pm
trying long here 76.20 STOPLOSS 75.88
Early to bed, early to rise, keeps you healthy, wealthy and wise.
  • #29,944
  • Jan 31, 2012 2:57pm Jan 31, 2012 2:57pm
Quoting eqshack
trying long here 76.20 STOPLOSS 75.88
Im trying long too buy 76.19
  • #29,945
  • Jan 31, 2012 4:30pm Jan 31, 2012 4:30pm
I have seen that a lot of you are starting to build longs in this market and all i can say is I wish you luck...Last year in February we had a similar intervention but with a spike almost 300 points lowerbefore fair value and this was all within 15 mins...so be careful with your stops...

US Dollar against the Japanese Yen stands at a massive 12.6 to every one short. The last time we saw such extremes was in October, 2011
This was a similar story last time

Regards
BW
Be sensitive to subtle differences between 'intuition' and 'into wishing.
  • #29,946
  • Jan 31, 2012 4:39pm Jan 31, 2012 4:39pm
Quoting BlackWid0w
I have seen that a lot of you are starting to build longs in this market and all i can say is I wish you luck...Last year in February we had a similar intervention but with a spike almost 300 points lowerbefore fair value and this was all within 15 mins...so be careful with your stops...

US Dollar against the Japanese Yen stands at a massive 12.6 to every one short. The last time we saw such extremes was in October, 2011
This was a similar story last time

Regards
BW
Quite right BW......setting up longs now is not a clever idea.....it is a gamble, pure and simple. Even if BOJ intervene, the upside will be something in the region of 300 pips. To my way of thinking, that does not justify such a gamble......
Doing what you like is Freedom. Liking what you do is Happiness.
  • #29,947
  • Jan 31, 2012 4:57pm Jan 31, 2012 4:57pm
Somehow , I am less convinced that any interventions will be taking place anytime too soon, both in Yen and CHF . The last time interventions took place , I don't believe the ratios of long to shorts were this high, I actually think more speculators lost money than they made overall.
It defies logic to intervene and make 80-90% of speculators accounts fatter only so that the same speculators can then gang up on the hand that fed them and short the pairs again.
I know that logic is a difficult word to associate with the BoJ and for all I know they might decide to throw money away again, but I would caution against expecting free lunches.If anything I think this pair will range ,but my present bias is further downside movement to bust a few(a lot actually) speculators.

The commercials that are hedging against the 90% are not in the market entirely for profit , but to preserve the value of their funds(hence safe haven) what will drive the prices ,I believe is USD sentiment, which atm is not too great.
Officer ... I swear to drunk I am not God
  • #29,948
  • Jan 31, 2012 5:00pm Jan 31, 2012 5:00pm
Quoting Fidza
Somehow , I am less convinced that any interventions will be taking place anytime too soon, both in Yen and CHF . The last time interventions took place , I don't believe the ratios of long to shorts were this high, I actually think more speculators lost money than they made overall.
It defies logic to intervene and make 80-90% of speculators accounts fatter only so that the same speculators can then gang up on the hand that fed them and short the pairs again.
I know that logic is a difficult word to associate with the BoJ and for all I know they...
if noda said watching....
soon he will give the light to azumi ..and azumi will give the light to boj to step into the market....

watching...watching..and watching..haha
Bismillah
  • #29,949
  • Jan 31, 2012 5:02pm Jan 31, 2012 5:02pm
Quoting BlackWid0w
I have seen that a lot of you are starting to build longs in this market and all i can say is I wish you luck...Last year in February we had a similar intervention but with a spike almost 300 points lowerbefore fair value and this was all within 15 mins...so be careful with your stops...

US Dollar against the Japanese Yen stands at a massive 12.6 to every one short. The last time we saw such extremes was in October, 2011
This was a similar story last time

Regards
BW
last october is about 100Busd...
this time we not knwo how much they will spend...

and off course more because they have lesson it before..hehe
Bismillah
  • #29,950
  • Jan 31, 2012 5:11pm Jan 31, 2012 5:11pm
Quoting krunfx
if noda said watching....
soon he will give the light to azumi ..and azumi will give the light to boj to step into the market....

watching...watching..and watching..haha
If I remember correctly prior to last intervention, they were watching and observing for a long time before the pair dropped to all time lows (over 200 pips from time the first announcements of their watching took place).

And the point I was trying to make is that when something looks too good to be true , it usually is, and with so many retail traders standing to benefit tremendously from an intervention, I just don't see it happening. I could be wrong but I just don't like to live in wonderland where everything is made of chocolate, because that simply implies I am dreaming.
Officer ... I swear to drunk I am not God
  • #29,951
  • Jan 31, 2012 5:19pm Jan 31, 2012 5:19pm
Quoting Fidza
If I remember correctly prior to last intervention, they were watching and observing for a long time before the pair dropped to all time lows (over 200 pips from time the first announcements of their watching took place).

And the point I was trying to make is that when something looks too good to be true , it usually is, and with so many retail traders standing to benefit tremendously from an intervention, I just don't see it happening. I could be wrong but I just don't like to live in wonderland where everything is made of chocolate, because...
That is why I say: give the UDS short seller speculator's money to the retail traders, reward them for keeping the speculators at bay.
  • #29,952
  • Jan 31, 2012 5:48pm Jan 31, 2012 5:48pm
Quoting Fidza
If I remember correctly prior to last intervention, they were watching and observing for a long time before the pair dropped to all time lows (over 200 pips from time the first announcements of their watching took place).

And the point I was trying to make is that when something looks too good to be true , it usually is, and with so many retail traders standing to benefit tremendously from an intervention, I just don't see it happening. I could be wrong but I just don't like to live in wonderland where everything is made of chocolate, because that...
Just doing a bit of reading about the G7 intervention after the earthquake......

Fumihiko Igarashi, Japan’s deputy finance minister: “Our stance remains unchanged that we will take decisive steps against speculators who act like sneaky thieves at a scene of a fire.”

'Sneaky thieves at the scene of a fire'......ROFL......love it
Doing what you like is Freedom. Liking what you do is Happiness.
  • #29,953
  • Jan 31, 2012 5:51pm Jan 31, 2012 5:51pm
Quoting realjumper
Just doing a bit of reading about the G7 intervention after the earthquake......

Fumihiko Igarashi, Japan’s deputy finance minister: “Our stance remains unchanged that we will take decisive steps against speculators who act like sneaky thieves at a scene of a fire.”

'Sneaky thieves at the scene of a fire'......ROFL......love it
hahahaha....

but i more like the word watching for noda....and im used that now in my analysisl..ahhaha
Bismillah
  • #29,954
  • Jan 31, 2012 6:00pm Jan 31, 2012 6:00pm
Quoting Fidza
I just don't like to live in wonderland where everything is made of chocolate, because that simply implies I am dreaming.
How about a wonderland where everything is made from beer, then? Bet you'd like that...
Gone to a better place
  • #29,955
  • Jan 31, 2012 6:03pm Jan 31, 2012 6:03pm
Hello all, been watching UJ lately. H1 is close to a weak bullish TK cross, H4 appears to form a bottom and allow for a retrace and D1 / W1 have been moving sideways for a while.

Hoping for a good entry over the next few hours:

E, pending: 7618
E, alternative, pending: 7650 (on cited intervention rumors)
SL: 7608
TP: 7920 for intervention or exit at bearish TK cross
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  • #29,956
  • Jan 31, 2012 6:10pm Jan 31, 2012 6:10pm
Quoting 2046
Hello all, been watching UJ lately. H1 is close to a weak bullish TK cross, H4 appears to form a bottom and allow for a retrace and D1 / W1 have been moving sideways for a while.

Hoping for a good entry over the next few hours:

E, pending: 7618
E, alternative, pending: 7650 (on cited intervention rumors)
SL: 7608
TP: 7920 for intervention or exit at bearish TK cross
interesting view ...
Bismillah
  • #29,957
  • Jan 31, 2012 6:49pm Jan 31, 2012 6:49pm
Quoting realjumper
Just doing a bit of reading about the G7 intervention after the earthquake......

Fumihiko Igarashi, Japan’s deputy finance minister: “Our stance remains unchanged that we will take decisive steps against speculators who act like sneaky thieves at a scene of a fire.”

'Sneaky thieves at the scene of a fire'......ROFL......love it
If you ask me their main aim is to take out the retail traders/speculators , Commercials will always be on opposite sides of the fence to retail traders, if you look up on the COT yen charts for this year,previous interventions were done at peaks of when retail traders were inclined towards YEN bullishness , and this is not the case atm.
Its easy to dismiss retail traders as making up a small percentage , but take into account that most are leveraged where as commercials are not, I would also argue that a CB would have more control over commercials net positions than they do over speculators, which do make up for the bulk of the volume of traders.
So the very fact that retail traders are bearish on the Yen to me suggest the BoJ has nothing to do ,but let the market take its course, if intervention should come , I would imagine it would be when the ratio of longs to short is slightly more balanced, if not reversed.
Officer ... I swear to drunk I am not God
  • #29,958
  • Jan 31, 2012 8:19pm Jan 31, 2012 8:19pm
I'd argue the vast majority of the market is short given the Fed is holding the zero-bound longer, and that this, and the fact the BoJ likely looks at anything below ¥80 as insane, where we're testing a lower-bounds away from this threshold, implies some rubber band-ness, intervention or not. One can make a case about credit ratings and the U.S. budget curve under a Democratic President that may be stuck with a GOP Senate — abject gridlock being great for business conditions — U.S. dividends being way above bond yields, so at some point there being a short on bonds, the market not falling so much on Europe headlines (stock market looking months ahead, reacting to daily news severity/ramifications). The Fed was quoted as saying they will hold 0.25% til end of 2014, yet the FOMC statement doesn't say "we will hold". These are Fed official forecasts that will change as business conditions improve and they'll raise rates to fight growth like they always do: once there is growth.

So my question is more, do I watch AAPL go to $500+, and Wells Fargo's stock prices, the XLF, and oil snailing to $120, for long signals on USDJPY [short JGBs]. Gotta look at the whole context. Go on your own mind, sometimes not give a hoot about where everyone else is. If you look at EURUSD commercial interest in the COT, it is huge. If it is implying a rally to 1.40 et al., then what that means is USDJPY will likely rally anticipating EURUSD breaks (the dollar appreciating intermittently). Then you'll be back in a normal market where you can go long AUDUSD when H4 looks like Armageddon, at a low, long AUDJPY as well, then when AUDUSD looks toppy on H4 you may think to go long USDJPY and TP your AUDUSD trades, etc.
  • #29,959
  • Jan 31, 2012 8:31pm Jan 31, 2012 8:31pm
Quoting BlackWid0w
I have seen that a lot of you are starting to build longs in this market and all i can say is I wish you luck...Last year in February we had a similar intervention but with a spike almost 300 points lowerbefore fair value and this was all within 15 mins...so be careful with your stops...

US Dollar against the Japanese Yen stands at a massive 12.6 to every one short. The last time we saw such extremes was in October, 2011
This was a similar story last time

Regards
BW
it's not pure speculation of intervention
COT report shows big speculators trim bets on yen gain vs dollar (from historical high)
DXY kinda rebound from 78.80 support.
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  • #29,960
  • Jan 31, 2012 11:40pm Jan 31, 2012 11:40pm
Iee... Sumimasen...Wakaranai....
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