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VWVB Daily Chart Analysis

  • #661
  • Apr 24, 2006 11:47pm Apr 24, 2006 11:47pm
Hi all, haven't posted here for a while. Here's what I'm up to.

GBPUSD is riding its trendline so it might break sideways soon.

AUDUSD and EURUSD haven't started bumping into their trendlines so they're still upward as far as I can tell. I'm even going to buy AUD if it breaks the double highs because if that happens it'll probably make it to previous monthly highs. EURUSD is in a pretty clear channel, the top of which it just bounced off of, so we'll see about that.

USDCHF is almost a mirror image of EURUSD. I've been watching it ride the 6 and 10 daily EMAs and I'm pretty sure it'll keep going down for a day or two. However, it hasn't had a no-touch day in 3 days and it's looking a lot like USDCAD looked a few days ago. It broke a double bottom and went back into rangedness. So I'm starting to think generally dollar bullish but I want to see some movement first..

I got in on USDJPY from a weekly breakout and rode it almost all the way down. I took profit when it neared the lows of the last two months, which it has now broken. It might keep going, I don't know. EURJPY isn't at interest fib yet. I think this movement was a Japan thing and now euro/dollar stuff will take over. Good time to look hard at EURUSD.

I want to go long on USDJPY but we might be looking at a reversal on the monthly level. It broke the monthly trendline and 55 SMA. This might be a reason to depart from VWB for a bit on this pair, or just watch the 115.40 area closely if you do go long. I think there will be a big bounce that should get us pretty far into the tunnel, around 116.0 if price goes up starting now (which it probably won't).
  • #662
  • Apr 25, 2006 12:09am Apr 25, 2006 12:09am
Quoting Artamon
Again, daily open is at what time?

Can somebody please clarify!!!!
I may be off by an hour either way (daylight savings time and all), but I think this logic is close:

Chicago time = Central Time = GMT -5

15:00 hrs Chicago time = 20:00 hrs GMT

I think.

Now you just have to figure out how your broker's server sits in relation to 20:00 GMT.
  • #663
  • Apr 25, 2006 3:50am Apr 25, 2006 3:50am
Could be wrong as DayLight Savings changes happen or have happened but normally Chicago is GMT minus 6 hours EST is -5 hours ( eg. New York )

B17
  • #664
  • Apr 25, 2006 3:51am Apr 25, 2006 3:51am
I thought Chicago was normally GMT minus 6 hours ( EST is -5)

B17
  • #665
  • Apr 25, 2006 4:49am Apr 25, 2006 4:49am
Quoting mrscooting
question was...live trading VWB...
for a couple of months ...
  • #666
  • Apr 25, 2006 7:43am Apr 25, 2006 7:43am
G'day JD20,

Quoting jerseydevil20
I may be off by an hour either way (daylight savings time and all), but I think this logic is close:
Chicago time = Central Time = GMT -5
15:00 hrs Chicago time = 20:00 hrs GMT
I think.
Now you just have to figure out how your broker's server sits in relation to 20:00 GMT.
But didn't Vegas state he took his daily open as 5pm Chicago time and not 3pm??

Andrew.
  • #667
  • Apr 25, 2006 10:50am Apr 25, 2006 10:50am
A great link for time zones is at:

http://www.timeanddate.com/worldclock/

The Chicago Mercentile Exchange closes at 5pm (When Vegas takes his signals) which is UTC/GMT -6 hours and has a +1hr Daylight saving time from April 2 ending Oct 29th.
  • #668
  • Edited 4:24pm Apr 25, 2006 3:47pm | Edited 4:24pm
Quiet around here lately.

USD/CHF about to head up?

-->+ divegence on MACD forming on 1hr & 4hr charts.
-->todays candle possibly close as a doji candle
-->Todays daily candle bounced off long-term trendline started in late dec of '04

Slope of 8MA on 4hr still has negative slope though...

Haven't had too much time to look deeper than that.

Waddaya think?
  • #669
  • Apr 25, 2006 6:09pm Apr 25, 2006 6:09pm
Quoting bonmeister
Quiet around here lately.

USD/CHF about to head up?

-->+ divegence on MACD forming on 1hr & 4hr charts.
-->todays candle possibly close as a doji candle
-->Todays daily candle bounced off long-term trendline started in late dec of '04

Slope of 8MA on 4hr still has negative slope though...

Haven't had too much time to look deeper than that.

Waddaya think?
[Note: I'm not trading the VWB system, but I've been putting it on my charts out of curiosity]

It's possible that it's going up, but it doesn't look like a great trade yet. It looks like it could be bouncing off a support/resistance line that dates back to Jan '04. (It's the dashed purple line on the chart.)

I normally put much more stock in lines that act both as support and resistance, but this line isn't quite as clean as I'd like it to be. The weekly closes have been coming to within 20 pips or so at times, and ignoring it altogether at others.

If I weren't already in some other trades, I might jump this early. If you put your stop below the s/r line (switch to candle view and go below recent lows, not closes) you'd could be getting up to a 10:1 reward/risk ratio. As it is, I'll let it come off that line convincingly, then consider jumping in.

I'm not seeing the 1H,4H MACD divergence you mention
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  • #670
  • Apr 25, 2006 8:40pm Apr 25, 2006 8:40pm
Quoting bonmeister
Quiet around here lately.

USD/CHF about to head up?

-->+ divegence on MACD forming on 1hr & 4hr charts.
-->todays candle possibly close as a doji candle
-->Todays daily candle bounced off long-term trendline started in late dec of '04

Slope of 8MA on 4hr still has negative slope though...

Haven't had too much time to look deeper than that.

Waddaya think?
With regards to the USD/CHF: I actually show this pair to be in a downward trend – both on a weekly chart and a 4-hour chart. Personally I do not yet see a reversal pattern yet, so I personally would not be anxious to go long.

I think your overall assessment is correct - to keep a eye on a long trade for this pair. By the way…take a look at the EUR/USD and what do you see? As the USD/CHF continues to decline, the EUR/USD continues to rise. If it continues in this manner, we could have a cross over of the two pairs. Often when they cross each other, we could see a good move in the future. Something to keep an eye on….

Mike
  • #671
  • Apr 26, 2006 9:58am Apr 26, 2006 9:58am
Bemac, goodcall on the GBPUSD. I bailed at a loss at a 19 pip loss. I did not like the action... Scott

Quoting Bemac
Talking only to the GBP USD.
I had a nice short day trade thank you very much But I exited my position because the same criteria that told me to look south is now telling me to look East North East.
Therefore I expect GBP/USD to go sideways with a slight bias to the upside. Not enough for me to get involved so it looks like I get a "Do Something Around The Yard" day tomorrow.

As naked & raw as it sounds and with ALL due respect, TA speaking, I feel that 1.7925 is easily within reach of this pair, perhaps eve tomorrow. That takes it to a point of Pit Fighting to hold the handle. That, with the weekend closure imminent makes it a risk I personally am not willing to take. After evidence of a top @ ~1.7925 then it MAYBE a short opportunity.

The 1.7785 Sell Stops are currently hurting. Honestly guys, I believe there is more pain ahead. If you can withstand another bounce, then go for it. I think you will end up a winner but now might be the time to pull that MM ace out of your sleeve.

Only My opininion & I have no more evidence than you to go by.

I couldn't find the emoticon showing Me wishing I am wrong. But if I could, then it would have been placed here.
  • #672
  • Apr 26, 2006 11:19am Apr 26, 2006 11:19am
Chicago is GMT (DST or CST) -6 I use qlock and have a small clock for tokyo, london, new york and chicago on my monitor. qlock is free too.

I am just beginning to read all of the threads related to Vegas Method.

I love the daily scoreboard by Shan --- thank you.
And thank you all for your input to the forum.

evg

Quoting Bramhall17
I thought Chicago was normally GMT minus 6 hours ( EST is -5)

B17
  • #673
  • Apr 26, 2006 11:50am Apr 26, 2006 11:50am
Quoting egossett
Chicago is GMT (DST or CST) -6 I use qlock and have a small clock for tokyo, london, new york and chicago on my monitor. qlock is free too.

I am just beginning to read all of the threads related to Vegas Method.

I love the daily scoreboard by Shan --- thank you.
And thank you all for your input to the forum.

evg
You may want to check out this free FX Clock also.
you can switch it back and forth from Time till Close, to Market Local Time. Just click the analogue clock icon.

http://www.worldmarkethours.com/Fore...a.htm?12,0,1,1

Has the same capicity for Stock Markets also.
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  • #674
  • Apr 26, 2006 12:23pm Apr 26, 2006 12:23pm
Bemac thanks -- i like the countdown on that clock
evg
  • #675
  • Apr 30, 2006 1:20am Apr 30, 2006 1:20am
Quoting Artamon
G'day JD20,



But didn't Vegas state he took his daily open as 5pm Chicago time and not 3pm??

Andrew.
Yes, brain hiccup. Sorry. I think I got the relative times correct however. Right now with daylight savings time, Chicago is GMT -5 (see accrete's link above).

17:00 Central Time (Chicago) = 22:00 GMT

For those using MT4 set to GMT +1 (London), this means the Chicago Open is 23:00 GMT???
  • #676
  • Apr 30, 2006 7:37am Apr 30, 2006 7:37am
Quoting vishalshan
Entered 4 pairs and buy stop pending on one more pair..what a day!!

I have moved my SL to B/E on two pairs since my MM bell rings with so many trades on today !!

Hope everyone is having fun today..Good luck to you all.

Shan
Shan or others:

Similar to post 616, how does one save an section within an excel file and post it as an image?

Thanks

Mike
  • #677
  • Apr 30, 2006 4:26pm Apr 30, 2006 4:26pm
Here is what I am looking at prior to the start of May for potential opportunities:

  1. EUR/USD: Initial Fib has been breached
  2. USD/CHF: Initial Fib and Extreme Fib have been breached
  3. GBP/USD: Initial Fib has been breached
  4. USD/JPY: Initial Fib and Extreme Fib have been breached
  5. USD/CAD: Initial Fib and Extreme Fib have been breached
  6. AUD/USD: Initial Fib has been breached

Mike

  • #678
  • Apr 30, 2006 6:32pm Apr 30, 2006 6:32pm
Mike


All those pairs almost ready to retrace - I agree with your analysis ... but it's going to take a strengthening of the US Dollar to get the 8 EMA turning in the right direction.... I'm watching those pairs too, but the question remains. Is the Dollar going to rally ? I think it is ... but... I'm looking for confirmation.

Look for exhaustion on the 1Hour candle?

Bakrob
  • #679
  • Apr 30, 2006 6:48pm Apr 30, 2006 6:48pm
I pretty much look for reveral on the 4-hour chart. I agree with you, the dollar needs to make a come back. I "feel" continued weekness in the dollar in the short-term, but am keeping a close eye on a reversal on any of those pairs...we shall see what happens...

Good luck trading this month..

Mike




Quoting bakrob99
Mike


All those pairs almost ready to retrace - I agree with your analysis ... but it's going to take a strengthening of the US Dollar to get the 8 EMA turning in the right direction.... I'm watching those pairs too, but the question remains. Is the Dollar going to rally ? I think it is ... but... I'm looking for confirmation.

Look for exhaustion on the 1Hour candle?

Bakrob
  • #680
  • Apr 30, 2006 10:14pm Apr 30, 2006 10:14pm
Quoting ForexMike
Shan or others:

Similar to post 616, how does one save an section within an excel file and post it as an image?

Thanks

Mike
Mike,

Copy the xls content and paste in Paint. Save it as tif/giff file and upload here. You can't copy paste directly from xls to the thread.

I was bit busy last week with my full time job and could not post. I'll try to continue posting this week.

Happy trading,
Shan
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