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  • #1,821
  • Jan 23, 2012 9:06am Jan 23, 2012 9:06am
Quoting forexhard
Regardless of strategy, live trading is very different from demo. Keep a diary of your first 100 trades (not 100 cz's). Never wager more than .01 X 30p SL for those first 100. This will take a few weeks. Don't rush this part. Then stop and regroup. If your win rate is, say, 60% or better then you could think about raising it to .02 X 30 for the next 100. By then you will know eveything possible about the strategy, how you react to live trading & slippage, and your choice of br0ker.
You mentioned a win rate of 60% and that caught my eye. I know this is only an example, but do you think that's a good target win rate to start out? To be profitable in the long run? Can it be improved?

I know this is a very subjective question with a lot of variables. Just interested to hear your thoughts and advice. Thanks!
Luck occurs when preparation meets with opportunity.
  • #1,822
  • Jan 23, 2012 9:40am Jan 23, 2012 9:40am
That was a mentor talking to a newbie. That is what I would call a confidence building drill. Any newbie that keeps close track of their first 200 trades can't go far wrong, imho.

Why did the 60% figure catch your attention? Too big? Too small? What?...
To improve is to change. To perfect, is to change often.
  • #1,823
  • Jan 23, 2012 11:05am Jan 23, 2012 11:05am
Set the EU long up before work this morning. My better trades always seem to be the ones left alone.
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  • #1,824
  • Jan 23, 2012 12:33pm Jan 23, 2012 12:33pm
Quoting forexhard
That was a mentor talking to a newbie. That is what I would call a confidence building drill. Any newbie that keeps close track of their first 200 trades can't go far wrong, imho.

Why did the 60% figure catch your attention? Too big? Too small? What?...
Thank you for asking. The main reason this piqued my interest is that I am developing a framework for trading using SSBO, and win/loss ratio is a great statistic to use as a milestone for measuring success.

My first reaction is that 60% seems low for "good" success. There may be heavy drawdown periods. But you also advised to increase wager size once 60% is consistently achieved. So I'm probably wrong in my initial reaction.

I'm just looking to build as much confidence and realistic expectations into my trading plan as possible. So I'm wondering, in your real life trading experience, is a 60/40 win/loss ratio ok/good/excellent, profitable or just over BE, just good for a start but needs improvement if you expect to keep trading this method over time, etc.? What is a good/realistic ratio for the long run?

Your insights are always valuable!
Luck occurs when preparation meets with opportunity.
  • #1,825
  • Jan 23, 2012 1:39pm Jan 23, 2012 1:39pm
Hi folks,

I took a look at those charts just before and was probably trying to hard, I wasn't looking for the simple answer, just goes to show I still have a lot of 'unlearning' to do.

My silver chart only has the one breakout (in direction terms), thats why i went with the hour TF. you can see I had to sweat it our for a couple of days but was worth it in the end. The purple line was where I wanted to put my first stop by the way.

I forgot to mention, my initial stop is placed at the opposite pip buffer for silver, thats what boosted my backtest to 75% wins.

HXT
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  • #1,826
  • Jan 25, 2012 4:35pm Jan 25, 2012 4:35pm
Here is a perfect (and profitable) example of why we never try to predict the way price will move. For the past 2 weeks Cable has been on the rise. Trend is definitely Up, and a few posts back I showed where it had given us about 4000 pips to work with over the last 10 trading days or so.

And this pic shows the most recent example of a strong reversal during that same up trend. Good for 65 pips at the max point, before returning to "center", as we know by now that Cable has a tendency to do.

The lesson remains: Never try to predict price direction. Take the "thinking" or the "calculation" out of the picture entirely and just go with the flow. Just find the CZ and trade the breakout, bank some profit and reset for the next opportunity.
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To improve is to change. To perfect, is to change often.
  • #1,827
  • Jan 26, 2012 12:56pm Jan 26, 2012 12:56pm
Quoting forexhard
Here is a perfect (and profitable) example of why we never try to predict the way price will move. For the past 2 weeks Cable has been on the rise. Trend is definitely Up, and a few posts back I showed where it had given us about 4000 pips to work with over the last 10 trading days or so.

And this pic shows the most recent example of a strong reversal during that same up trend. Good for 65 pips at the max point, before returning to "center", as we know by now that Cable has a tendency to do.

The lesson remains: Never try to predict...
Just come across this thread and have been slowly reading all the way through, I love price action, to me it is the only way to read the charts, price action with the help of indicators is even better, have been following a couple of price action methods but this one is speaking a lot of truth to me right now!

Thanks Forexhard for your work on this!
Pip Goes The Weasel
  • #1,828
  • Jan 27, 2012 8:09am Jan 27, 2012 8:09am
Hi,

I have been looking at some of the more straight forward trading system on FF. I did not look into any of them very deeply but only book marked them.
Then a week ago I came across this one (don't know why it took so long). This one was different. So this past week I have read every post (and taken notes), installed MT4 (and learned to use it).

My next step is to learn how to setup the indicator and use it. Also go back thru my notes. I plan on being ready to start using it (demo) by Monday. And yes I will still have more to learn then but it will be a start.

Thanks Forexhard for a great course on how to use your system. Also the programming effort creating the indicator was fantastic.

Thanks Rod
  • #1,829
  • Jan 27, 2012 11:17am Jan 27, 2012 11:17am
Adam, Rod, welcome aboard guys to the SSBO express. Unlike every other teaching thread here at FF, this system is still exactly the same as it was on Day One. It wasn't easy keeping the system pure and the thread on track, but we did it.

We like to see pix in here. So please don't be shy about posting screen shots when ever you get the chance.

Best,

FxH
To improve is to change. To perfect, is to change often.
  • #1,830
  • Jan 27, 2012 7:44pm Jan 27, 2012 7:44pm
Quoting forexhard
Adam, Rod, welcome aboard guys to the SSBO express. Unlike every other teaching thread here at FF, this system is still exactly the same as it was on Day One. It wasn't easy keeping the system pure and the thread on track, but we did it.

We like to see pix in here. So please don't be shy about posting screen shots when ever you get the chance.

Best,

FxH
forexhard thanks for the welcome! I will definitively post shots on trades once i get used to the system. Hopefully this will start next week
Pip Goes The Weasel
  • #1,831
  • Jan 27, 2012 8:42pm Jan 27, 2012 8:42pm
Hi everyone,

Here's my first trade made 2 days ago on the EUR/USD using SSBO. I entered after the close of the 2nd candle from the buffer line. I captured 25 pips. 1 is where I entered and 2 is where my TP got hit. For subsequent trades, I plan to move my stop losses and let the trade run. Great system forexhard. I'll be posting my charts as I trade. Thanks and a great weekend to all.
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  • #1,832
  • Jan 29, 2012 7:31am Jan 29, 2012 7:31am
According to your pic, it looks like you were using maybe a 10p SL. That's really tight imo. To each their own, but over time you're going to get stopped out much more than normal if you keep this same R:R ratio.
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To improve is to change. To perfect, is to change often.
  • #1,833
  • Jan 30, 2012 3:19am Jan 30, 2012 3:19am
Thanks for commenting on my trade forexhard! It is definitely true that I'll get stopped out more often. I should've placed my SL in the middle of the CZ box. Going to do that for future trades. Happy trading this week!
  • #1,834
  • Jan 30, 2012 12:46pm Jan 30, 2012 12:46pm
I noticed that you don't have any of the fib targets on your chart. You can use the fib targets as a guide to move your stops as the trades progresses (See pic). This is how I've been doing it since the thread started.
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  • #1,835
  • Edited 3:03pm Jan 30, 2012 2:44pm | Edited 3:03pm
Quoting mer071898
I noticed that you don't have any of the fib targets on your chart. You can use the fib targets as a guide to move your stops as the trades progresses (See pic). This is how I've been doing it since the thread started.
I gotta say Mer, I do see a decent accuracy on the 30 minute charts I use. I use a fixed TP on 3 pairs but the Fibs on the others.

It's been fairly quiet on the CZ front for me today but looks like theres potential for a few to form over the next few hours. Nearly half way on EU, GJ and EJ. Hopefully they will start to tighten after NY close too.

Will hopefully have some lovely looking blue boxes to post piccies soon ish.

I'm going to have to get to grips with Steve's trade mgmt tool.
  • #1,836
  • Jan 31, 2012 8:10am Jan 31, 2012 8:10am
Here are my two trades from Monday. Good start on a slow news day.

Rod
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  • #1,837
  • Jan 31, 2012 9:32am Jan 31, 2012 9:32am
Quoting rodb
Here are my two trades from Monday. Good start on a slow news day.

Rod
Hi rodb, it's a great system. I'm loving it. I'm not getting any CZ's today. Anyway, I noticed that your display boxes indictate that your getting quite a few CZ's each week. Just wanted to point out that your will get much higher quality trades if you reduce the number of boxes each week. This strategy is can provide a high win/lose ratio but it means less frequency of trades.

As an example my GBP/CHF has a win/lose ratio of 77% and just under 50% of trades hit 200 pips but theres rarely more than one trade a week but 500-800 pips a month from one pair is fine for me.

What I'm saying is that there will be a trade off of quality v's quantity.
  • #1,838
  • Jan 31, 2012 11:38am Jan 31, 2012 11:38am
Quoting hxtrader
....I noticed that your display boxes indictate that your getting quite a few CZ's each week. Just wanted to point out that your will get much higher quality trades if you reduce the number of boxes each week. This strategy is can provide a high win/lose ratio but it means less frequency of trades.

As an example my GBP/CHF has a win/lose ratio of 77% and just under 50% of trades hit 200 pips but theres rarely more than one trade a week but 500-800 pips a month from one pair is fine for me.

[b]What I'm saying is that there will be a trade off...
Well said, HxT. Looks like someone's been reading the thread. Bet that pissed your wife off! A few months from now hopefully you can rub her nose it in a little. LOL
To improve is to change. To perfect, is to change often.
  • #1,839
  • Jan 31, 2012 3:07pm Jan 31, 2012 3:07pm
Quoting hxtrader
Hi rodb, it's a great system. I'm loving it. I'm not getting any CZ's today. Anyway, I noticed that your display boxes indictate that your getting quite a few CZ's each week. Just wanted to point out that your will get much higher quality trades if you reduce the number of boxes each week. This strategy is can provide a high win/lose ratio but it means less frequency of trades.

As an example my GBP/CHF has a win/lose ratio of 77% and just under 50% of trades hit 200 pips but theres rarely more than one trade a week but 500-800 pips a month...
Thanks for the feedback hxt and FxH. I pretty much have all of mine under 3 per week. But then if I follow 6-8 pairs that would mean up to 24 trades a week. That would be way to many. I will go back and get them (and others) under 2 per week.

When adjusting the parameters - do you go more for a narrow CZ or for a longer CZ? Or is it a combination? I know - get back to work. I'll try it both ways and see what works best for each pair.

Thanks and yes it is a great system Fxh.
  • #1,840
  • Jan 31, 2012 5:10pm Jan 31, 2012 5:10pm
Quoting forexhard
Well said, HxT. Looks like someone's been reading the thread. Bet that pissed your wife off! A few months from now hopefully you can rub her nose it in a little. LOL
Yes, and I do hope so ha ha.
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