Hi scjohn
Appreciate it very much and looking forward to more.
Appreciate it very much and looking forward to more.
Nexas's Intraday Range Bar Trading
Onward through Friday morning trades. I promise once I get through these, I'll be quiet for a while and only speak when spoken to.
After getting out of my short at 9:00, there were a few trend breakthroughs down from 9:05 through 9:13 but nothing takable under either 8 range filter (EMAs or Momentum).
Then there was a trendline breakthrough long at 9:17. At this time, EMAs on both the 4 pip and 8 pip charts were firmly against it, but 8 pip Big Mo was strongly up. As I've said before, I almost never pass up a strong momentum trade so I went long. Also, it was a 1,2,3 reversal pattern. It hit a first target at about 2x risk. Again, because Big Mo was flashing solid green, I kept a runner which stopped out at 9:27. This time the runner hurt. It stopped out at a profit but a lower one than the first target.
Note that there was a FTC at 9:19 but it was against strong momentum so I passed. It made a little bit and I believe this was the first trade after 8:30 that had both EMAs lined up.
Just after 9:30, there was another trendline break. Again both EMAs were solidly stacked against it but Big Mo still said go. And now we had a 123 reversal pattern on the 8 pip chart. I now had Big Mo on board, 2 reversal patterns, and Big Mo had just crossed the zero line up, so I only took off a third at the trend line target, another third at 9:36 (+29 pips) after two red bars, and the final third stopped out at 9:37 (+26 pips).
To be continued.
After getting out of my short at 9:00, there were a few trend breakthroughs down from 9:05 through 9:13 but nothing takable under either 8 range filter (EMAs or Momentum).
Then there was a trendline breakthrough long at 9:17. At this time, EMAs on both the 4 pip and 8 pip charts were firmly against it, but 8 pip Big Mo was strongly up. As I've said before, I almost never pass up a strong momentum trade so I went long. Also, it was a 1,2,3 reversal pattern. It hit a first target at about 2x risk. Again, because Big Mo was flashing solid green, I kept a runner which stopped out at 9:27. This time the runner hurt. It stopped out at a profit but a lower one than the first target.
Note that there was a FTC at 9:19 but it was against strong momentum so I passed. It made a little bit and I believe this was the first trade after 8:30 that had both EMAs lined up.
Just after 9:30, there was another trendline break. Again both EMAs were solidly stacked against it but Big Mo still said go. And now we had a 123 reversal pattern on the 8 pip chart. I now had Big Mo on board, 2 reversal patterns, and Big Mo had just crossed the zero line up, so I only took off a third at the trend line target, another third at 9:36 (+29 pips) after two red bars, and the final third stopped out at 9:37 (+26 pips).
To be continued.
Let's look at that last time period again, but this time on the 8 pip guide chart.
Note that we first get a weak up signal on Momentum when it breaks the previous high and, as it moves to a strong up signal at 9:17 (by adding a higher low), the EMAs are stacked short.
The EMAs finally get on board the long wagon 30 minutes and over 30 pips later.
Will this earlier momentum filter produce some losers that the EMA filter would eliminate? Absolutely. Count on it. But my experience using Big Mo on other setups tells me it will make up for the extra losers several times over with winners, some of which will be big (like this one).
Of course, the best way to believe that is to backtest on your own and practice trade it.
In the next post, we'll finish out Friday's trading.
Note that we first get a weak up signal on Momentum when it breaks the previous high and, as it moves to a strong up signal at 9:17 (by adding a higher low), the EMAs are stacked short.
The EMAs finally get on board the long wagon 30 minutes and over 30 pips later.
Will this earlier momentum filter produce some losers that the EMA filter would eliminate? Absolutely. Count on it. But my experience using Big Mo on other setups tells me it will make up for the extra losers several times over with winners, some of which will be big (like this one).
Of course, the best way to believe that is to backtest on your own and practice trade it.
In the next post, we'll finish out Friday's trading.
The rest of the morning saw one more big trade (again in defiance of the EMAs on both charts, and the day's loser.
At 9:38 there was a trend line break up but it was the first one after a parabolic move up on the 8 pip chart (see previous posts) so I passed.
Took the next one at 9:41 even though Big Mo up was weakening. I liked the upward move of the Price Channel. The pain was short lived as the market took all my position in about two minutes flat.
Passed on the third up signal at 9:46. As one of my mentors used to say, "Fool me twice, shame on you. Fool me three times, shame on me." After two losing signals in any direction, I look for a channel breakout before I'll trade again. Also, Big Mo was in a strong down and the Risk Reward was not great.
Finally, at 9:58 got a trend line break down. EMAs on both charts said long but Big Mo was a good down signal. As you can see, this trade did rather well. Runner stopped out at +25 pips.
Glad it came when it did as I don't take new trades after 10:00 on Friday, but I will let an active trade play out after that.
Of course all these posts are simply anecdotal evidence. What really counts is statistical proof which for most of you will require either backtesting or some time practice trading. Based on how Big Mo has performed for me in other setups I'm comfortable using it but it's important that, should you decide to use it, you build up some personal confidence first.
Hope I haven't overstayed my welcome with such lengthy posts.
At 9:38 there was a trend line break up but it was the first one after a parabolic move up on the 8 pip chart (see previous posts) so I passed.
Took the next one at 9:41 even though Big Mo up was weakening. I liked the upward move of the Price Channel. The pain was short lived as the market took all my position in about two minutes flat.
Passed on the third up signal at 9:46. As one of my mentors used to say, "Fool me twice, shame on you. Fool me three times, shame on me." After two losing signals in any direction, I look for a channel breakout before I'll trade again. Also, Big Mo was in a strong down and the Risk Reward was not great.
Finally, at 9:58 got a trend line break down. EMAs on both charts said long but Big Mo was a good down signal. As you can see, this trade did rather well. Runner stopped out at +25 pips.
Glad it came when it did as I don't take new trades after 10:00 on Friday, but I will let an active trade play out after that.
Of course all these posts are simply anecdotal evidence. What really counts is statistical proof which for most of you will require either backtesting or some time practice trading. Based on how Big Mo has performed for me in other setups I'm comfortable using it but it's important that, should you decide to use it, you build up some personal confidence first.
Hope I haven't overstayed my welcome with such lengthy posts.
- #473
- Jan 31, 2012 8:47am Jan 31, 2012 8:47am
- | Joined Aug 2007 | Status: I keep my eyes open | 1,108 Posts
One Chart is Worth Ten Thousand Words.
- #477
- Feb 2, 2012 4:14pm Feb 2, 2012 4:14pm
- Joined Jan 2010 | Status: Primary Technical Trader | 8,593 Posts
Hi Everyone,
Sorry I haven't been around in a while. I have been caught up with school runs and stuff like that, as my wife can't drive at the moment.
Hopefully I will be back in the saddle soon :-)
Nexas
You have a very nice system of trading which I like and you explain it well.
Keep up the good work.
Thank you for sharing,
AlexC