Swing Trading Ideas

Behzad,

This is just my take on this chart - and while I realize this is after the fact, the points laid out below were known ahead of time. Bear in mind I am doing this analysis through the prism of basic Elliott Wave analysis - but that is what works for me

1. Trend (or lack of) has been sideways since June 2010 - not a good sign for trade selection

2. Dropping down to a 15-min chart, the price action noted below in highlight was clearly impulsive when compared to the pull-backs

3. While there may have been a bearish candle or some sort of other trigger that gave you a bearish signal, a short was a counter-trend trade - always lower probability trades.

http://www.aspentrading.com/uploaded..._12/gbpcad.png

Just offering my take on it - do with it what you want.

Hello Raul
is USDCHF in Good Range on 15M Chart ?
is the SF_MAP indicator tell us this range is on the imbalance range? and not Good to trade?

Hello Behzad,

I still think the USDCHF is not ready yet... I'd like to see a clearer range...

Good luck with your trade on the GBPCAD! I still think the GBPCAD needs to hit the next LT support level (1.5427)... So you got a nice trade there, right at the top of the short term range... Where are you planning to take profits? where is your SL level at?

billv,

Let me know if you have any questions alright?

Dave,

Thanks, I appreciate your contribution...

Cheers!

I like the way the GBPUSD is trading on both, short and long term charts. It’s clear that the market is trading in a bullish condition on the long term charts, but also has a very well defined range on the short term charts:

http://www.straightforex.com/forex_b...1/gbpusd52.png

I’d like to see how it reacts to the bottom of the range, and if it forms a significant pattern with upward pressure, I’ll be going long.

What do you think about the GBPUSD?

Trade Safe!

Behzad,

Sorry, I thought you posted your GBPCAD trade on the last swing (around 1.5779) but I see you took it yesterday....

Remember we need to get at least two rejection from an important level before we consider it "an important level". The one you took your trade from as the second rejection...

See where the market is currently trading? It just got rejected from an important level (the market has been rejected at least three times from it).

What do you think?

Cheers,

Yes Man,on the GBPCAD I wasn't patiented enough to see at least Twice clear rejection from an important level .

but on GBPAUD I think ,it stick in historical Support area!

Dear Raul what you think about XAUUSD ?
I think it is in Bullish condition.....
and yesterday broke Upper ST level.....
and now we are waiting to significant Pattern
Right man?

hello all
GBPCAD sell Live Trade
Market Condition Bearish....
instant entry : 1.5773
SL : 1.5822
TP : 1.5562

Hello Behzad,

I agree with you!!! this is what I wrote earlier today on my blog:

Are you going to hold your trades during the US interest rate announcement? I’d close them and reopen them after the announcement...

Anyway, a few days back I wrote about the GBPCAD, it was trading in a clear bearish condition, and now it has confirmed the ST resistance level with some kind of downward pressure:

http://www.straightforex.com/forex_b...1/gbpcad18.png

Are you still thinking about going short here? Please let me know.

Trade Safe!

hello Dear Raul
thanks alot Man
yes Dear I decide to move my SL to entry Level (BE my SL) and without stress watching the market.....
But your Idea is Nice "Close the position and reOpen that!" very very beautiful, if I tell you honestly; I dont know this Dissertation...

thanks From your Helps

No worries!

Where do you intend to take profits?

I have, and honestly I still think there it will continue its way down. It’s been trading in a bearish condition and making historical lows for a while now. And you know what, if the market is going down, I’ll keep looking for short opportunities (I stopped trying to pick bottoms a long time ago):

http://www.straightforex.com/forex_b...1/euraud31.png

So as long as the EURAUD keeps trading below 1.2451 I’ll be looking for short opportunities.

Do you agree with me?

Good Trading!

Just my 2 cents on EUR/AUD - should break lower but need to be patient...

http://www.aspentrading.com/uploaded...6.12euraud.png

Thanks Dave!

I definitely agree with you, if consolidation triangle completes, there will be another impulsive wave (and good one I think)...

On the other hand, take a look at the resistance level (1.2451), looks like it will hold, thats the reason I'd feel comfortable shorting it as long as it trade below the level...

Cheers,

hello Raul
my opinion is GBPCAD Not clear ,until break my green Line in the ST chart
dear Raul : you saw that market was bearish condition, but I think market is in not tradeable
zone.
I ask my question in other word ;please explain to me how you see it clear Market condition,and and Please tell me " your Market condition" How long is valid?

--------------------------------------------
i think because LT 1.5724 was broken before so we remove it and configure it so it is not valid more and we still look for in short opportunities until price break resistance level(Green) 1.5797,after broken we look for long opportunities.am i right?

thank you for your attention

hello raul
i am so confuse and when i read your previous post for realize i have some problem to set LT important level for recognising condition.for example :in page 1 post 12 & 13
you put LT level Blue in daily but if i want to set it i donot put them there.because i dont have rejection price from there before.so why and how you recognize it.?
what must we do by them (if them random level )that market want to retrace of them?
please tell me more about important level and random level and what can we do useful by them?

Hello Erfan,

The market condition is defined by the way the market reacts to important support and resistance levels.

If it gets rejected from an important support level its bullish, from a resistance level, its bearish, etc.

The idea is to make it as simple as possible. AS you already know, the market moves in waves, most of the time those waves move from one level to the other. So it all depends where you set your R/R levels. You just need to follow these rules:

- An important level is drawn where the market gets rejected twice
- The more rejections the more important it becomes
- Recent rejection are more important than less recent rejections
- Only take in consideration the levels the market take in consideration (i.e. if the market breaks twice an important level, get rid of it)

Also, there is a difference between a retracement and a change in direction, levels that are formed because a change in direction are more powerful...

Now, about the GBPCAD, its bearish, because it got rejected from an important LT resistance level, and there are no levels in between, the next one is at 1.5427. The one you have at 1.5797 is no longer important, the market broke through it twice already.

HTH

Which currency pairs will you be following next week?

These are a few of the currency pairs that I think will have clear swings:

NZDCAD – This one is a non brainer, it’s trending up. I’ll be looking for long opportunities. My next LT resistance level is at 0.8366.

EURAUD – As long as it trade below the ST resistance level of 1.2451 I’ll be looking for short opportunities.

GBPCAD – Same as the EURAUD, its trading in a very clear bearish condition, and as long as it trades below the ST resistance level of 1.5780 I’ll be monitoring it to see if I get my opportunity to short it.

GBPUSD – This week I looked for long opportunities here but now its in a different condition, it’s trading near an important LT level, and it won’t stay there for long, so I’ll be ready to look for trade opportunities in the direction of the eventual breakout.

I have other currency pairs that are about to be tradable, but I’ll rather wait for next week to get my confirmation.

What currency pairs will you be trading next week? Let us know.

Cheers!

Enjoy your weekend

Hi Raul
Thanks for the hints,
I mostly follow EUR/USD and AUD/USD but I'm not sure of the direction.
I'm guessing they will probably go down a bit during the Asian session and will take off for new highs when NY opens

hello Raul and everyone!
Raul are you in this idea that EurUsd is Bullish condition?
if yes , this pattern and important level is Right?