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Where can I learn more about Price Action like those in James16 charts? 9 replies

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james16 Chart Thread

  • #106,461
  • Jan 27, 2012 10:59am Jan 27, 2012 10:59am
Quoting Gekko78
Saw this trade last night.....saw the bearish inside bar @121.30.Other indicators were lining up also. Looked like a reversal so I went short .... Per James16 rules I looked for bar highs and lows for target. Saw first area around 121.00 Wanted to test it out for a quick 30 pips or so..... Well It worked ....hit the area ..I exited 1/2 of my position and moved stop to BE. Still in this trade 90+ so far ....It looks like it is in the next trouble area. We'll see if it can close below.

Any feedback appreciated!
Also noticed that an inside bar is forming right around the resistance area...( not surprisingly) This might be all she wrote on this one.....
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"Greed is good,greed is right,greed works"
  • #106,462
  • Jan 27, 2012 11:01am Jan 27, 2012 11:01am
Here is what I have been observing in the S&P the last few months. I read somewhere that in the last 50 years or so, in an election year a positive January has never failed to predict a positive year and an average of a 16% annual gain.

link:http://www.cnbc.com/id/45858664/In_E...al_for_Markets
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Price is beautiful. A repetitive method is a competitive method.
  • #106,463
  • Jan 27, 2012 11:17am Jan 27, 2012 11:17am
Quoting Pinbar
Area was good for a TT but as far as PA goes, the bearish PB is miniscule in comparison to the last bar up, in that Strong uptrend.
you are right, PB is quite small compared to previous uptrend's bars... but don't forget to check out overall price action: we have 7 green bars with always an higher high. this means that we are in a strong overbought situation and the probability that price could come back for at least 50-60 pips is very high. the strong uptrend move has created a lot of "space" (look at the previous bar before the pin bar). even if the pin bar is small, the signal isn't bad to me (maybe not a A++ trade but a A+ for sure). R:R isn't bad too. that's why i went in for quick profits. 1/3 of my position took out @ 40 pips, and now the rest is floating (now 75 pips profits) (sl were 50 pips, now BE).

now i'm aiming to 81.00 but it could even reach 80.50 (strong support). i think price will probably break the bottom uptrend's trendline and then reach 80.50. let's see.

the most important thing is to move your stop @ BE as soon as possible. now i'm managing my tp without the fear of losses, and trust me this change everything (it affects your emotions as much as your account equity). i'm not interested in finding the long run trade, the thing i care the most is to find trades which allow me (with a >90% probability) to move my stop @ BE after 40 pips or so AND ONLY THEN i care about aiming for bigger profits @ next S/R or PPZ with the rest of my order.
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  • #106,464
  • Jan 27, 2012 11:18am Jan 27, 2012 11:18am
What do you think about shakeout, guys?
Is this setup nice?
  • #106,465
  • Jan 27, 2012 11:24am Jan 27, 2012 11:24am
Quoting R3ta
you are right, PB is quite small compared to previous uptrend's bars... but don't forget to check out overall price action: we have 7 green bars with always an higher high. this means that we are in a strong overbought situation and the probability that price could come back for at least 50-60 pips is very high. the strong uptrend move has created a lot of "space" (look at the previous bar before the pin bar). even if the pin bar is small, the signal isn't bad to me (maybe not a A++ trade but a A+ for sure). R:R isn't bad too. that's why i went...
Sorry to interfere , but looking at or playing so so setups which give good or even insanely good profit (yeah absolutely possible) is one of the pitfalls in the learning curve
You just say to yourself "oh man see what this tiny thing is able to do , this is holy grail wow" and then you start taking every one of these and when losses start to pile up and you wonder what is wrong .
  • #106,466
  • Jan 27, 2012 11:25am Jan 27, 2012 11:25am
Quoting R3ta
you are right, PB is quite small compared to previous uptrend's bars...
It is also thendline and fibo 1.382 there.
http://ubuntuone.com/0FoV0XaqqunBOxGaBvYwNv
  • #106,467
  • Jan 27, 2012 2:34pm Jan 27, 2012 2:34pm
Quoting Rust
Sorry to interfere , but looking at or playing so so setups which give good or even insanely good profit (yeah absolutely possible) is one of the pitfalls in the learning curve
You just say to yourself "oh man see what this tiny thing is able to do , this is holy grail wow" and then you start taking every one of these and when losses start to pile up and you wonder what is wrong .
i understand what you're trying to point out: there's a high risk of becoming too much indulgent when you have to decide to get in or not, if you start to look at these so so trades (i would rather call them "not A++ trades but A+ ones"). the risk of becoming overconfident can be huge, if you don't develop a high discipline attitude and if you don't know what you are really doing.

but dont get me wrong, i almost never trade setup like that and this can be considered an exception.

in italian, my native language, i would call this "un trade al limite".

the trade we are talking about is not a "perfect" one, and to be honest i consider it the worst possible trade i can take. however despite of the small pin bar, there still are enought factor to take a short position (support level, major trendline, last few bars price action, "space", high probability of an -at least- 50-60 pips drop, etc..). even if the bar don't show the best possible setup, if you trade very conservative, this could be a very good opportunity.

of couse you must keep in mind that this is an exception and that you must trade it more conservative (risk is never above 1% for these trades).

exits management (SL) are crucial. remember that there's a fine line between a successful trade from a bad one. especially in these cases.

just my 2 cents.
  • #106,468
  • Jan 27, 2012 5:57pm Jan 27, 2012 5:57pm
Quoting R3ta
you are right, PB is quite small compared to previous uptrend's bars... but don't forget to check out overall price action...
I took this one too and worked out perfectly, zero draw down on entry. For me, the story AND LEVEL was stronger than the PB itself.

- 82.41 D1HCR was a clearly respected level
- Price attempted to break out but failed to close above
- Resistance still intact
- Sell on the retest on the following day,
- All out at FTA 81.48 (Clear consolidation box in left)
- Pip perfect stuff
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  • #106,469
  • Jan 27, 2012 6:05pm Jan 27, 2012 6:05pm
This Monthly & weekly swing point interests me on Gold.
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  • #106,470
  • Jan 27, 2012 6:07pm Jan 27, 2012 6:07pm
I hope Mike doesn't mind me posting this, but here's a chart I'm still trying to figure out...

Happy weekend all
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  • #106,471
  • Jan 27, 2012 6:11pm Jan 27, 2012 6:11pm
Quoting 5.25
I took this one too and worked out perfectly, zero draw down on entry. For me, the story AND LEVEL was stronger than the PB itself.

- 82.41 D1HCR was a clearly respected level
- Price attempted to break out but failed to close above
- Resistance still intact
- Sell on the retest on the following day,
- All out at FTA 81.48 (Clear consolidation box in left)
- Pip perfect stuff

Yes, it was a good area but, that is not why I commented on it.
The reason I commented on it was that, in my eyes it was not "Great Pa" but simply a tiny bar much smaller than the previous bullish bar. We are all saying the same thing here.


Quoting Pokemon
AUD/JPY D1
Great PA, i think.
  • #106,472
  • Jan 27, 2012 6:14pm Jan 27, 2012 6:14pm
Quoting 5.25
I hope Mike doesn't mind me posting this, but here's a chart I'm still trying to figure out...

Happy weekend all

It's Mike's take on the Mayan calendar and, how we are going to avoid the asteroid from space. LOL
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  • #106,473
  • Jan 27, 2012 6:16pm Jan 27, 2012 6:16pm
Quoting Pinbar
Yes, it was a good area but, that is not why I commented on it.
The reason I commented on it was that, in my eyes it was not "Great Pa" but simply a tiny bar much smaller than the previous bullish bar. We are all saying the same thing here.
Sorry PB, never intended to come across that way. I TOTALLY agree, PB was WAY too small to trade in itself, 100% I flash read the thread. Have a great weekend. T


Quoting Pinbar
It's Mike's take on the Mayan calendar and, how we are going to avoid the asteroid from space. LOL
... and there I was thinking it was the Holly Grail! lol
  • #106,474
  • Jan 27, 2012 6:22pm Jan 27, 2012 6:22pm
Quoting 5.25
Sorry PB, never intended to come across that way. I TOTALLY agree, PB was WAY too small to trade in itself, 100% I flash read the thread. Have a great weekend. T




... and there I was thinking it was the Holly Grail! lol

Hey no problem, it was just that a lot of people seemed to be missing my point.

Mike is currently working on the safest place on the planet, to escape to.
Hope he let's us know and that it doesn't turn out to be a place called Macclesfield.
  • #106,475
  • Jan 27, 2012 6:33pm Jan 27, 2012 6:33pm
Quoting 5.25
I hope Mike doesn't mind me posting this, but here's a chart I'm still trying to figure out...

Happy weekend all
I must be in weekend mode. I was so confused when I saw this picture. I didn't read what you wrote LOL

  • #106,476
  • Jan 28, 2012 1:09am Jan 28, 2012 1:09am
Hi Mike,

Really enjoy reading your post as usual.

I was scanning through some charts today and stumbled upon a pattern that I could ALMOST put it in the same class/logical type as standard J16 pitbulls - please see the attached charts, especially the natural gas weekly futures.

Would you classify that Buob as a CHF/USD Weekly pitbull pin that we got from last year? It just seems to be like it has the exact same price action structurally - when I consider the two candle setup as just a normal pin if we had a different view like a two-week bar chart view, since it had a strong close above the previous dominant red candle?

Love to know what you think about this.

V
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  • #106,477
  • Jan 28, 2012 2:36am Jan 28, 2012 2:36am
ericsson breakout.
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meine augen sind die sterne
  • #106,478
  • Jan 28, 2012 3:19am Jan 28, 2012 3:19am
What do you think about this PB? There is 50%fibo+pullback to PPZ and RN(101)

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  • #106,479
  • Jan 28, 2012 3:53am Jan 28, 2012 3:53am
Quoting R3ta
...(i would rather call them "not A++ trades but A+ ones"). the risk of becoming overconfident can be huge, if you don't develop a high discipline attitude and if you don't know what you are really doing.
...
Hey man ,
You know , "there are hundreds of ways to make money from the markets, still so hard to find one"
If that works for you it is more than fine . It doesn't for me . In my book this is far from A+ .
If anything bounced the price it was not that pin bar . Here all we are searching for confluence factors , but this also means they have to be strong and valid, too ! Else makes our entries more aggressive. Just my view.

Have a nice weekend
  • #106,480
  • Jan 28, 2012 4:09am Jan 28, 2012 4:09am
dow jones
end of a rising market?
nice confluence...
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meine augen sind die sterne
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