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AUD/USD

  • #39,561
  • Jan 26, 2012 10:32am Jan 26, 2012 10:32am
Quoting BergenGlobal
hey folks,

i'd like your opinion on the matter. i went short at 1.0596, and am obviously in the red right now. i'm considering adding to the short right now, which is 1.0665-70. this would bring the avg down to about 1.0631 to break even. what do you think? good idea, or you think there's still some short-term boost to it? i'm aware that it's looking quite bullish long-term but it's certainly overbought in most short-term TFs. any non-condescending opinion will be appreciated. thanks
The real question is why averaging? Just to get 1.0631 to BE? And what after? What was your plan when entering in a trade? How much risk did you consider to take in your money management, and for which TP? How much did you expect as higher level of Aussie, after which you will get out? You only can answer at these questions, and if you do, you will take the right decision.

There are traders ready to take 100 pips and more as drawdown against hundreds of pips as TP, and others only some few pips against some tens of pips to win. First guys doesn't matter with them similar drawdawn, because when entering, they took from the beginning 1% risk of their balance and get lots according to. Second guys get much more lots, with the same 1% risk of their balance. Then up to you to define which kind of trader you are and act consequently.
Little luck is forex water. Learn all Trading strategies, then forget them.
  • #39,562
  • Jan 26, 2012 10:57am Jan 26, 2012 10:57am
When you start thinking of recouping your losses, needing to win back that hard earned money.

Close your platform, get a smoke, calm your mind, revise all your trading strategies.

Ask yourself, is your next move going to be based on a trading strategy or your emotions ?
  • #39,563
  • Jan 26, 2012 11:21am Jan 26, 2012 11:21am
Quoting Alki
The real question is why averaging? Just to get 1.0631 to BE? And what after? What was your plan when entering in a trade? How much risk did you consider to take in your money management, and for which TP? How much did you expect as higher level of Aussie, after which you will get out? You only can answer at these questions, and if you do, you will take the right decision.

There are traders ready to take 100 pips and more as drawdown against hundreds of pips as TP, and others only some few pips against some tens of pips to win. First guys doesn't...
Update: Averaged down from 673, closed out and just gained a few pips. To be honest, I didn't really have a clearcut trading strategy when i first shorted 596. I was just planning on making a few pips off retracement of session highs yesterday, and stayed in too long. My patience for trades wane at times, and this is something I will have to work on, along with determining SL's better. Thanks for all your insights and advices, most appreciated.
  • #39,564
  • Jan 26, 2012 12:17pm Jan 26, 2012 12:17pm
http://picshare.at/IMG/1327601605_aussie.jpg

i wait for one more high but not sure if it happens,

i have bearish signals on aussie but dixie candles are also still bearish
  • #39,565
  • Jan 26, 2012 12:23pm Jan 26, 2012 12:23pm
can someone give insight how much gbp/aud corellates with eur/aud ? is it safe to expect if one goes up other gonna follow aswell,just maybe less pips wise?
  • #39,566
  • Jan 26, 2012 1:50pm Jan 26, 2012 1:50pm
Again try short AUD. SL moved at 2 pips BE. If my calculation is ok, there will not be 50 pips loss this time.. This time i am trying to catch the real turning point of the whole up trend. Aussie, made it smoothly before, and looks like it repeats that again now. Normally, i calculate if 1.057 failed, it will be 1.071. Actual market conditions had changed, so again i calculate and it gives me that entering point as accurate as possible: 0,1 pip drawdown (without spread). I think it's ok lol.

Let's see the market now to where it wants to go.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: AUD.jpg Size: 68 KB
Little luck is forex water. Learn all Trading strategies, then forget them.
  • #39,567
  • Jan 26, 2012 1:58pm Jan 26, 2012 1:58pm
Guys u keep on shorting it when you should buy the dips the trend is STRONG, don't see a reason for shorting this, euro fundamentally isn't in a bull trend
  • #39,568
  • Jan 26, 2012 2:28pm Jan 26, 2012 2:28pm
Quoting sidhujag
Guys u keep on shorting it when you should buy the dips the trend is STRONG, don't see a reason for shorting this, euro fundamentally isn't in a bull trend
Maybe you are right, but every trend has an end. This end is the turning point. It is very difficult to catch, sometimes, it costs money to take it, but if you did it well, you have a good return. The trend exist because there is an explanation, and i try to find why technically this whole move is here. If i find the answer, then i could see its force and energy and i could calculate where it will be over. This is the turning point. The large meaning of the trend itself, means nothing for the trading style i practice.

I never trade neither fundamental nor the correlations. I care only about the chart. I could trade AUD, EUR and EUR/AUD separatly at the same time. Couterpart is USD or other, it doesn't matter. I am not yet so perfect, but i am exercising my self to be so. Then you could wish to my hard luck (even luck does not exist in forex).
Little luck is forex water. Learn all Trading strategies, then forget them.
  • #39,569
  • Jan 26, 2012 3:08pm Jan 26, 2012 3:08pm
Quoting pinkiaiii
can someone give insight how much gbp/aud corellates with eur/aud ? is it safe to expect if one goes up other gonna follow as well, just maybe less pips wise?

Yes, but really, you are effectively you are talking about EUR-GBP, terrible pair to trade; so if you see EUR strong against GBP, you may get more or less movement in either the EUR-AUD over GBP-AUD.

As they are stuck in range, the pairs move together, look at a weekly of each & you have your answer; can you tell them apart?

It takes a lot for me to IGNORE you, but you can try.
  • #39,570
  • Jan 26, 2012 3:18pm Jan 26, 2012 3:18pm
i see ugly enough,placed a long on eur/aud and gbp/aud and eur/aud is -30pip now behind the gbp pair.
  • #39,571
  • Jan 26, 2012 4:52pm Jan 26, 2012 4:52pm
What an amazing move yesterday, I hope a lot of you got on it and scored some nice profits.
It is tempting to try to find a top for a short in these scenarios
(Bearish USD Ben Bernanke comments), but we should remember that it almost always results in pain to go against the trend.

Normally I would trust my charts and though they are giving me sell signals at the obvious level of 1.0680,
There has been a decent pullback now and so I'm in on a Long again...

Long @ 1.0635, Sl 1.0595, Tp open
Expect the unexpected.
  • #39,572
  • Jan 26, 2012 5:01pm Jan 26, 2012 5:01pm
Where will we be, pricewise, in 1 month?
Im' interested to know YOUR opinion!

AUD/USD price poll, What price will we have on COB Friday 24 FEB...

Poll is open for 4 more days...
Expect the unexpected.
  • #39,573
  • Jan 26, 2012 5:24pm Jan 26, 2012 5:24pm
I've a pending long at 1.0645. Already short e/a.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: au 27012012 pending long.gif Size: 37 KB
FF journal: Peaks and Troffs
  • #39,574
  • Jan 26, 2012 5:53pm Jan 26, 2012 5:53pm
AUD FUTURES
AUD/USD
Date 26/01/2012
Total Open Interest 144,246
Net Marginal Change 4,522
Marginal Accumulation 41,586
Change in Total OI (%) 28.88
The Australian dollar’s open interest increased slightly. Traders added 4,522 new contracts in futures trading. The price of AUD/USD is climbing as expected. Gold has now broke above an important resistance on rising interest. We shall see even higher prices in these markets.
  • #39,575
  • Jan 26, 2012 6:16pm Jan 26, 2012 6:16pm
Cancelled pending long and closed e/u. Currently short e/y,a/u and e/u.
FF journal: Peaks and Troffs
  • #39,576
  • Jan 26, 2012 6:24pm Jan 26, 2012 6:24pm
The daily chart is still bullish but 1 hour chart is bearish now. I think it will test 1.0540 before further up to 1.0750. I will not short this pair until it reach to 1.0750, with 50 pips s/l or if it closed below 1.0510 on a 1 hour chart.
  • #39,577
  • Jan 26, 2012 6:54pm Jan 26, 2012 6:54pm
long is scary right now
  • #39,578
  • Jan 26, 2012 6:58pm Jan 26, 2012 6:58pm
Quoting fx-rocket
What an amazing move yesterday, I hope a lot of you got on it and scored some nice profits.
It is tempting to try to find a top for a short in these scenarios
(Bearish USD Ben Bernanke comments), but we should remember that it almost always results in pain to go against the trend.

Normally I would trust my charts and though they are giving me sell signals at the obvious level of 1.0680,
There has been a decent pullback now and so I'm in on a Long again...

Long @ 1.0635, Sl 1.0595, Tp open
Stopped out at -40
Expect the unexpected.
  • #39,579
  • Jan 26, 2012 6:59pm Jan 26, 2012 6:59pm
might wait to go long around 1.050...
  • #39,580
  • Jan 26, 2012 7:06pm Jan 26, 2012 7:06pm
Quoting fx-rocket
Stopped out at -40
Are you looking to re enter long later? I am thinking about putting a long at 1.05600.

But I think there's a stronger support at 1.05400 but I don't know if Aussie will fall that much before shooting for 1.07500.
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