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  • #21
  • Jan 16, 2012 9:02pm Jan 16, 2012 9:02pm
Mer, what would happen if you switched the colors of the boxes and went with the trend instead of against it?
To improve is to change. To perfect, is to change often.
  • #22
  • Edited Jan 17, 2012 12:16am Jan 16, 2012 10:36pm | Edited Jan 17, 2012 12:16am
Quote
How bout this idea... First entry on first drawn box, as normal. But then at second box reduce the first entry by half. By the way, do the boxes only get drawn if all preceding positions are negative, right? Well, if so, then at third entry enter with the next size in progression chain. At fourth box reduce the third entry's size in half. Keep repeating this until something like 75% of the positions are positive, as you suggested. Of course you will be closing out positions at times for losses, but I think ultimately you will profit when...
Let's assume we get a blue box like the last chart I posted. How the indicator works is when it draws the first box, the indicator is assuming this is a swing point and is going to reverse. As we make lower lows, the indicator will continue to draw boxes until the true reversal point occurs. This is the repainting issue that most people have experienced with the original Zigzag. Before I made changes to the indicator, there would only be one arrow and if you didn't follow it and watch it closely, it would redraw and screw you if you made a trade with the arrow.

The whole theory here is that price is going to actually reverse and that is what we are prepping for by scaling in progressively. When it does reverse, our largest trades will always be the farthest away from where we close out the basket and that is where the money is going to be made. I don't really care if we unfortunately have a few losses at the beginning of the basket because their smaller lot size will be outweighed by the profit from the larger trades placed later. Our goal is we want to end up creating positive equity as a whole and not be focused on the individual trades.

I'm not really fully understanding what your proposing for entries? If you enter the first trade at .1 lots the second would be .05 lots, third would be .2 lots and then the fourth would be .1 lots, is that what you mean? If so, what if your starting with .01 lots? you can't place a trade of .005 lots for the second trade (unless maybe you're with Oanda).

If you use the Eur/Usd chart with the 13 trades in post #1. Starting with .1 lots, you would have made $2476.20, 57.73% less than I would've made at $5859.00 using a standard progression (see spreadsheets). The only positive thing is you are using less lots, but it's roughly about the same percentage less than the profit made (57.69%), so your really not accomplishing anything that a reduction in the base lot size would do.

Quote
Mer, what would happen if you switched the colors of the boxes and went with the trend instead of against it?
The problem is you never know how long a string will be or when the so called "trend" will fizzle out. If you only have one trade and it reverses, your screwed right off the bat with a losing trade. And you can't start with .01 lots and increase because when it reverses (and you have no idea when that will happen), your largest trades will end up having the largest losses. The indicator is basically giving us a "heads up" that the market may be reversing and we are loading up in anticipation of that move.
Attached File(s)
File Type: xls Swingspot 1.xls   1.7 MB | 421 downloads
File Type: xls Swingspot 2.xls   1.7 MB | 334 downloads
  • #23
  • Edited 11:49pm Jan 16, 2012 11:35pm | Edited 11:49pm
Quoting mer071898
Let's assume we get a blue box like the last chart I posted. How the indicator works is when it draws the first box, the indicator is assuming this is a swing point and is going to reverse. As we make lower lows, the indicator will continue to draw boxes until the true reversal point occurs. This is the repainting issue that most people have experienced with the original Zigzag. Before I made changes to the indicator, there would only be one arrow and if you didn't follow it and watch it closely, it would redraw and screw you if you...
Ok, got it.

Quote
I'm not really fully understanding what your proposing for entries? If you enter the first trade at .1 lots the second would be .05 lots, third would be .2 lots and then the fourth would be .1 lots, is that what you mean? If so, what if your starting with .01 lots? you can't place a trade of .005 lots for the second trade (unless maybe you're with Oanda).

If you use the Eur/Usd chart with the 13 trades in post #1. Starting with .1 lots, you would have made $1728.39, 57.73% less than I would've made at $4089.58 using a standard progression (see...

Nevermind the entry format I proposed. It was an alternating increase/decrease format, but I did the math on it and it doesn't help in any way. The size and required corrective move to reach profit is proportional to exposure so it doesn't really change anything. If anything it required more time to play itself out, albeit less risk exposure.

EDIT: The spreadsheets are wonderful. Very nice mer.
  • #24
  • Edited 12:11pm Jan 17, 2012 11:32am | Edited 12:11pm
I threw up a chart with your indicator and looked it over some today. I basically took the fib retracement tool and customized it to have 3 lines: Start (first entry box), Last (most recent entry box) and percent. I propose that for open positions 2-10 the close all target be 75% retrace. 11-20 70%... 21-30 65%... 31-40 60%... 41-50 55%... 51+ 50%.

Obviously moving the close all percent lower will skew the overall profit at close, but it gets us out of a long sequence sooner thereby killing the building risk exposure faster. Now even though the profit is less by moving the close target, remember that a large buildup acrues more interest (assuming trades are positive swap, which is the only way I would ever trade this). So the increasing interest should at least compensate somewhat for profits conceded.

If you really want to play it conservative you can always close at 50% regardless of how many open positions. This also makes it easier to manage and follow since you don't have to be changing target in the fib tool.

EDIT: The fib tool might not be the prefect because it doesn't take the average position into account, but it's easy to use and should always put the target above the breakeven due to the progressive sizing. An alternative could just be close at x% of account and adjust that % based on size of total position.
  • #25
  • Jan 17, 2012 1:41pm Jan 17, 2012 1:41pm
How about we only take trades that are setup on S&R area's? like the picture below.

Those line's are monthly pivot points.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: swing.gif Size: 22 KB
No Risk No Reward
  • #26
  • Jan 17, 2012 1:49pm Jan 17, 2012 1:49pm
What I'll do is watch out for candle stick reversal pattern after the box has appeared on S&R area's. That way I will be confident enough to take the trade
No Risk No Reward
  • #27
  • Jan 17, 2012 1:49pm Jan 17, 2012 1:49pm
Quote
I threw up a chart with your indicator and looked it over some today. I basically took the fib retracement tool and customized it to have 3 lines: Start (first entry box), Last (most recent entry box) and percent. I propose that for open positions 2-10 the close all target be 75% retrace. 11-20 70%... 21-30 65%... 31-40 60%... 41-50 55%... 51+ 50%.
That could be a good idea but starting at 75% doesn't really give the trade room to breathe. I will look into it a little more over the next few days.

Quote
How about we only take trades that are setup on S&R area's? like the picture below.
EXIT STRATEGIES, Not entry strategies. Do people seriously not read through the threads first? I'm am set on the way trades are being placed so I am looking for exit strategies only. I repeat:

Exit strategies only please!

  • #28
  • Jan 17, 2012 7:22pm Jan 17, 2012 7:22pm
Quoting fmfx1
How about we only take trades that are setup on S&R area's? like the picture below.

Those line's are monthly pivot points.
Hello fmfx1. Like mer said, the entry is already solved because we enter when the indicator draws a box. I believe the box is drawn when the zig zag indicator reaches a new low/high. If you have any ideas for an exit please post them.
  • #29
  • Jan 18, 2012 3:00pm Jan 18, 2012 3:00pm
Quoting [B
EXIT STRATEGIES[/b], Not entry strategies. Do people seriously not read through the threads first? I'm am set on the way trades are being placed so I am looking for exit strategies only. I repeat:

Exit strategies only please!

may be the entry style is not good enough that's why its hard to get an exit strategy.
No Risk No Reward
  • #30
  • Jan 18, 2012 4:16pm Jan 18, 2012 4:16pm
Quote
may be the entry style is not good enough that's why its hard to get an exit strategy.

That's not the point . I'm not asking for entry methods. You would already know that if you read the first post. If you want to devise a different entry method, please do it on your own time and do not post it here.
  • #31
  • Jan 18, 2012 5:01pm Jan 18, 2012 5:01pm
Quoting mer071898
That's not the point . I'm not asking for entry methods. You would already know that if you read the first post. If you want to devise a different entry method, please do it on your own time and do not post it here.
sure i wount post it here bcos your atitude are not encouraging. No wonder nobody is giving you an exit strategy yet.

Good luck
No Risk No Reward
  • #32
  • Jan 18, 2012 5:36pm Jan 18, 2012 5:36pm
My attitude is just fine, nobody else seems to have an issue with me except you. It's people who can't follow a simple thing like reading the thread first that irritates me. If you would've done that, we wouldn't even be having this conversation because you would know I already have an entry method. Whether you agree with it is irrelevant.

This is the last I will comment on it, so let's just move on.
  • #33
  • Edited 6:43pm Jan 25, 2012 12:57am | Edited 6:43pm
I wanted to stop back in and let everyone know that I think I have found my exit strategy. A very good friend of mine from another forum who is a ZigZag fanatic e-mailed me after reading my thread and proposed a solution that he uses when using the setups he trades.

After looking at my entries, he said the best way he has found is to take the regular ZigZag (I renamed it Swing exit) that repaints and use a lower setting of 60-25-15 and place it on a chart. He then said save the template and go into any trading simulator (I like to use sqaulou's) and start at whatever date you wish and start the simulator and load up the new template you just saved. Start up the simulator and once you see a string of trades placed on the chart by the SwingSpot indicator, slow down the simulator and wait until the ZigZag draws a leg (see pic below). Now draw a line at the open of the next candle after the leg and check what percentage of the trades are in profit. If you haven't reached the percentage of profitable trades for that size string, then wait until the ZigZag redraws a new leg and check again. He recommended trying to lower the percentages as more trades are placed. He suggested using this percentage guide as a starting point depending on the number of trades in the string (percentages can always be adjusted):

1-5 trades- 90%
6-10 trades- 85%
11-15 trades- 80%
16-20 trades- 75%
21-30 trades- 65% (old 70%)
31-40 trades- 60% (old 65%)
41-60 trades- 55% (old 60%)

***Edit- After some research, most of the swings are less than 20 trades, so I've lowered the percentage on all the trades swings of 21 or more by an additional 5%. I'm still doing some visual backtesting so there may even be more adjustments in the future.***

I opened a Gbp/Usd chart from January 2011 and tried this out. The first string we see here has 23 trades being placed by the SwingSpot indicator and the first leg was drawn on 1/20/2011 (First dotted line). By using the guidline above we would need 70% of the trades to be in profit to close our basket of trades. So we would need roughly 16 trades (23 trades X 70%= 16.1 trades) to close all trades. After drawing a line for the first leg @1.58405, which is the open of the candle after the leg is drawn, we only have 14 of 23 trades in profit at this point. I then let the simulator run until the indicator redraws a new leg. We draw another line for the second leg @1.57703. We still only have 15 trades in profit at this point. After letting the simulator run again, we have our third leg drawn. Drawing our new line @ 1.57564, we now have 18 of 23 trades in profit and can now close all open trades at this time. I was amazed of how simple this worked.

I then proceeded to go through all of 2011 on the Gbp/Usd chart and see how it would've worked out for the whole year using my Trade Tracker spreadsheet and was pleasantly surprised.

Capital- $100,000
Starting base lot size- .1 lots

Wins- 235
Losses- 45
Win%- 83.93%
Total lots Traded- 284.50 lots
Avg. Win- $1929.84
Avg. Loss- $459.41
Avg. Daily %- 1.19%
Avg. Monthly%- 13.96%
Largest Win- $25,734.80
Largest loss- $1,684.20
Total pips- +24,050 pips
Profit (not including spread or slippage)- $432, 839.09

I've added my spreadsheet so you can all see the trades I recorded along with the Swing exit indicator (ZigZag). I am probably going to go over some more charts this weekend as I'm sure I might adjust some of the percentages of the longer strings to be able to close them out a little quicker. Again, I gotta thank my buddy for this help and I hope we can all fine tune it to our own trading style and risk level. I will keep everyone updated on any new findings or changes.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: entry and stop.jpg Size: 98 KB
Attached File(s)
File Type: xls Swingspot all.xls   1.8 MB | 515 downloads
File Type: mq4 Swing exit.mq4   6 KB | 768 downloads
  • #34
  • Jan 25, 2012 10:33pm Jan 25, 2012 10:33pm
I have now started a new spreadsheet for 2012 and have ran simulated trades and posted the results below. I will be using 5 pairs, Eur/Usd, Gbp/Usd, Gbp/Chf, Eur/Gbp, and Usd/Cad with $10K allotted for each pair ($50K total). I will update the spreadsheet weekly with any open strings that have closed. So far, just for the few weeks starting the year, things are looking well.

Capital- $50,000
Starting base lot size- .01 lots

Wins- 53
Losses- 3
Win%- 94.64%
Total lots Traded- 2.78 lots
Avg. Win- $50.97
Avg. Loss- $2.96
Avg. Daily %- .01%
Avg. Monthly%- .17%
Largest Win- $242.90
Largest loss- $5.03
Total pips- +4863 pips
Profit (not including spread or slippage)- $2,692.34

Remember, these totals are not including spreads or slippage.
Attached File(s)
File Type: xls SwingSpot Reloaded 2012-5 pairs.xls   1.7 MB | 576 downloads
  • #35
  • Jan 26, 2012 12:05am Jan 26, 2012 12:05am
Quoting mer071898
I have now started a new spreadsheet for 2012 and have ran simulated trades and posted the results below. I will be using 5 pairs, Eur/Usd, Gbp/Usd, Gbp/Chf, Eur/Gbp, and Usd/Cad with $10K allotted for each pair ($50K total). I will update the spreadsheet weekly with any open strings that have closed. So far, just for the few weeks starting the year, things are looking well.

[b]Capital- $50,000
Starting base lot size- .01 lots

Wins- 53
Losses- 3
Win%- 94.64%
Total lots Traded- 2.78 lots
Avg. Win- $50.97
Avg....

Good system, I am interested to try it... Can you give your template? For reference I am well I do own templates based on indicators that you have provided...
  • #36
  • Jan 26, 2012 12:22am Jan 26, 2012 12:22am
Here you go.
Attached File(s)
File Type: tpl SwingSpot Reloaded.tpl   3 KB | 605 downloads
  • #37
  • Jan 26, 2012 9:13am Jan 26, 2012 9:13am
Hello Mer, thanks for sharing your ideas. I have attached an indicator that I picked up somewhere along the way, similar to your Swingspot Conservative. I noticed while scrolling back on a chart that some of the squares on your indicator where a bit misplaced. If you use the same settings on the indicator attached it should display the history a bit better. I hope it helps.
Are you able to build in your exit strategy into the ea, it would make testing alot easier.
Attached File(s)
File Type: mq4 SemaphorTrue2.mq4   5 KB | 592 downloads
  • #38
  • Jan 26, 2012 9:57am Jan 26, 2012 9:57am
I was trying this system... Let's hope that successful... And I will always observe and follow this thread. Thank you very much for this system, and good luck together. If there are more specialist and is willing to renew the system from time to time, the better... So that the system is more robust...
  • #39
  • Jan 26, 2012 11:19am Jan 26, 2012 11:19am
Quote
Hello Mer, thanks for sharing your ideas. I have attached an indicator that I picked up somewhere along the way, similar to your Swingspot Conservative. I noticed while scrolling back on a chart that some of the squares on your indicator where a bit misplaced. If you use the same settings on the indicator attached it should display the history a bit better. I hope it helps.
Are you able to build in your exit strategy into the ea, it would make testing alot easier.
Thanks for the indicator. That is one thing I hated with the SwingSpot indicator was scrolling back through the charts and having it go haywire on me. The magenta dots line up perfectly with my indicator but is there a way to remove the white and yellow parts? Setting the color to none puts black dots everywhere and I know nothing about removing code.

Quote
I was trying this system... Let's hope that successful... And I will always observe and follow this thread. Thank you very much for this system, and good luck together. If there are more specialist and is willing to renew the system from time to time, the better... So that the system is more robust...
Like I said, that is why I will be tracking trades first to make sure this will be feasible and worthwhile to trade, so please follow along and if you have any questions, feel free to ask.
  • #40
  • Jan 26, 2012 12:17pm Jan 26, 2012 12:17pm
Quoting mer071898
I wanted to stop back in and let everyone know that I think I have found my exit strategy. A very good friend of mine from another forum who is a ZigZag fanatic e-mailed me after reading my thread and proposed a solution that he uses when using the setups he trades.

After looking at my entries, he said the best way he has found is to take the regular ZigZag (I renamed it Swing exit) that repaints and use a lower setting of 60-25-15 and place it on a chart. He then said save the template and go into any trading simulator (I like to use sqaulou's)...
Holy Cow, Batman!!! I really want to believe....Please continue!!! p.s. Mer, you have one very special enterprising spirit...
Vincit qui se vincit.
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