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Quoting mohan76
Fact is no one can predict our RBA rate decision and we have 2 week for rate decision, it good to take to hill and push it from top, it will give good return to big fish, as tiny fish it's better for us to follow big fish than going inside it's mouth

RBA mandated to control inflation not unemployment
No, RBA mandate is to control financial stability.

We witnessed that when they dramatically cut rates in GFC 1 Like they will in GFC 2
Quoting HotBiscuits
Im considering opening up an IRC server for trading pairs, for those unaware of what an IRC is, its like a chatroom, messages are sent instantly to everyone in the channel. Would anyone be interested?
Anyway we can share information has to be a good thing...count me in mate.
Quoting XTrade
Don't forget about the impact of CNY news on the AUD either.

A week or so ago we got a great boost in Aussie from a slew of positive CNY data releases. The euro I think takes a second seat here in relationship and effect.
Europe will be the first and foremost..
China will be affected if Europe fails.. its dominoes..
Quoting ibotman
Depending on Obama reaction, I think it could stay bullish and hit 4hr trendline at 1.061 and Daily trendline at 1.071. Just waiting for the next dip to go long.

(...and inverse H&S on the 15 min?)
Can you post a chart mate? Interested in the 4 hour trendline.
It's great to hear peoples thoughts this arvo on fundamentals. Something I'm trying to learn about.
Cheers.
FF journal: Peaks and Troffs
Just checked the MyFxbook calendar and found out today is Anzac Day
Just goes to show you can't believe everything you read.
FF journal: Peaks and Troffs
Quoting bogus
Just checked the MyFxbook calendar and found out today is Anzac Day
Just goes to show you can't believe everything you read.
isn't it 25 april?
Be the market
Quoting alvseek
isn't it 25 april?
Yep. I think they are confusing it with Australia Day.
FF journal: Peaks and Troffs
Quoting bogus
Yep. I think they are confusing it with Australia Day.
Which is tomorrow on the 26. not today.
Don't get mad, get even!
Quoting stulic
Which is tomorrow on the 26. not today.
Yep. They have it as the 25th and as done.
FF journal: Peaks and Troffs
Quoting bogus
Yep. I think they are confusing it with Australia Day.
Quoting stulic
Which is tomorrow on the 26. not today.
Be the market
Quoting bogus
Yep. They have it as the 25th and as done.
may be due to time adjustment to USA trading hours
Mohan
  • Post #39,432
  • Quote
  • Edited Jan 25, 2012 5:10am Jan 24, 2012 11:49pm | Edited Jan 25, 2012 5:10am
Quoting taxe91
if this is how you feel, why not wait to go short instead?
The reason why I dont wanna go short is because:
#1. Hopium is strong
#2. Retail Traders are getting extremely net short on AUDUSD which implies the wise money is on the Long Side.
#3. Equity is trying its darnest to go up bringing AUDUSD (and other risk currencies) up.

I will go sideline for a while. Need to shake off that stupid LONG (correction) yesterday only to see it in the money now.
Quoting ragnakore
The reason why I dont wanna go short is because:
#1. Hopium is strong
#2. Retail Traders are getting extremely net short on AUDUSD which implies the wise money is on the Long Side.
#3. Equity is trying its darnest to go up bringing AUDUSD (and other risk currencies) up.

I will go sideline for a while. Need to shake off that stupid short yesterday only to see it in the money now.
But equities already crossing their peaks, and if negative fundamental comes along with it, its all the way down, isn't it risky?
aud cpi down....sure rba to cut soon..haha
Bismillah
Quoting krunfx
aud cpi down....sure rba to cut soon..haha
Sorry but no, CPI was not down but steady, 0% means no change to previous month, in fact trimmed mean inflation was up compared to previous month and also higher then expected. Literally no argument for a rate cut while core inflation stays above RBA's tolerance level.

The ASX rallied tho in hopes of February cut, carried by banks who said they won'n necessarily pass a rate cut on the borrowers anyway.

Pretty sure RBA is going to look closely at Europe first before deciding next move, inflation is now of secondary importance.
Don't get mad, get even!
Quoting stulic
Sorry but no, CPI was not down but steady, 0% means no change to previous month, in fact trimmed mean inflation was up compared to previous month and also higher then expected. Literally no argument for a rate cut while core inflation stays above RBA's tolerance level.

The ASX rallied tho in hopes of February cut, carried by banks who said they won'n necessarily pass a rate cut on the borrowers anyway.

Pretty sure RBA is going to look closely at Europe first before deciding next move, inflation is now of secondary importance.
yes....huhu...since aussie pm already warn about aud strengh!!...
yes they might see the europe first...but steven could make the statement with this cpi as ar catalyst for them..
Bismillah
i like your spreadsheet; how do you do your calculations? do you fill in manually or auto generate it?

Quote
I think I will stick with my free spreadsheet for now

Quoting krunfx
yes....huhu...since aussie pm already warn about aud strengh!!...
yes they might see the europe first...but steven could make the statement with this cpi as ar catalyst for them..
Government will always cry wolf about a strong currency, see Switzerland and Japan but they can do next to nothing about it long term.
Again, inflation data will not make the RBA cut rates in two weeks, Europe might.

The RBA has shown before to shrug off and withstand pressure from the government, the public and the media and leave rates on hold for most of last year, don't be fooled they'll be excessively cutting rates if Europe gets it's shit together, just because the consumers, the media and the government expect them to.

Even if, AUD/USD has shrugged off previous three cuts and if you look at the Kiwi, holding on very strongly with just 2.50% cash rate, so I'd say don't short this one in hope for the RBA to cut 25 or 50 basis points, it won't make this pair plummet below parity.
Don't get mad, get even!
Quoting stulic
Government will always cry wolf about a strong currency, see Switzerland and Japan but they can do next to nothing about it long term.
Again, inflation data will not make the RBA cut rates in two weeks, Europe might.

The RBA has shown before to shrug off and withstand pressure from the government, the public and the media and leave rates on hold for most of last year, don't be fooled they'll be excessively cutting rates if Europe gets it's shit together, just because the consumers, the media and the government expect them to.

Even if, AUD/USD...

they are very strong and interesting because nzd and aud is carry trade pair
Bismillah
There was a study on Hedge Funds Performance.

Accordingly, Hedge Funds that do FX Trading on general LOST about 5% in 2011!!!!

NOW that get me thinking. If these EXPERT TRADERS lost 5% in 2011, then how worse will it be for RETAIL TRADERS?
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