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Technical Analysis Fallacy

  • #30,281
  • Jan 23, 2012 3:12pm Jan 23, 2012 3:12pm
Quoting fti
thats the funny thingy.
I thoght i had done for it.
But yesterdays incident woke something up.
After the heart attack last year, i keep feeling a lump on the chest, like a stone inside my body.
After yesterday, i had excruting pains in many parts of the body. And today i getting lots cold sweats. lots moving unconforts at brain level.
energies still low.
I still trying figure out if is my mind or my body doing all these acrobatics on me.

last year had much short breath drowning sensations, seems subsiding.not felt that yet this couple of weeks.
Normally...

lol..

i tried reaching you earlier and i know it makes a difference can i tell something its just breathing exercise...it even helped Niels......but only if you are NOT RIGID....nevermind i think i know you knows whats best for you...jsut be safe...

V

PS: i know touching a touchy subject...
  • #30,282
  • Jan 23, 2012 3:19pm Jan 23, 2012 3:19pm
Quoting indianguyinny24
lol..

i tried reaching you earlier and i know it makes a difference can i tell something its just breathing exercise...it even helped Niels......but only if you are NOT RIGID....

V

PS: i know touching a touchy subject...
no
i cannot do my chi exercises.
when ever i try lift my dantian , the stress wobbles my heart.
regards


i just felt the pulse, is very faint.
but smoother.
is ok i 'll just go rest somemore.
  • #30,283
  • Jan 23, 2012 3:21pm Jan 23, 2012 3:21pm
Quoting indianguyinny24
lol..

i tried reaching you earlier and i know it makes a difference can i tell something its just breathing exercise...it even helped Niels......but only if you are NOT RIGID....
V

PS: i know touching a touchy subject...

nevermind i think i know you knows whats best for you...jsut be safe...
  • #30,284
  • Jan 24, 2012 8:14am Jan 24, 2012 8:14am
Inserted Video


Inserted Video


Inserted Video


regards
  • #30,285
  • Jan 24, 2012 9:44am Jan 24, 2012 9:44am
They have books on these, I suggest euan sinclair's two books. He's got a cd that helps you gain a feel for the distributions. Hull is a good place to start.

But yea, very technology, capital intensive.


Quoting fti
ok.
options is not a binary decision game.
so have more strategic plays.

long call = long underlying
long puts = short underlying

so if long options is buyer of option, so need pay premiums for either long call or long puts.

short call= short underlying
short puts = long underlying.

short options means is writing the options, so recieve premiums writing either the put or call.

the difference between long or short options is that:
if long options need pay premiums, so risk is limited to premiums paid.
if short options, ie writing...
  • #30,286
  • Jan 24, 2012 11:57pm Jan 24, 2012 11:57pm
wow, long sleep
how much sleep does a person really need.
  • #30,287
  • Jan 25, 2012 12:04am Jan 25, 2012 12:04am
Quoting fti
wow, long sleep
how much sleep does a person really need.
six to seven hours in which one have to capture golden 15 minutes.
  • #30,288
  • Jan 25, 2012 12:10am Jan 25, 2012 12:10am
Quoting fti
wow, long sleep
how much sleep does a person really need.
Every person is diferent.
And for the same person , need diferent hours in relationship with circunstances.
Im a Neurosurgeon and we learn many thing about sleep.
Sleep is very complex process and have many fases inside.
  • #30,289
  • Edited 12:51am Jan 25, 2012 12:18am | Edited 12:51am
Quoting fullperson
They have books on these, I suggest euan sinclair's two books. He's got a cd that helps you gain a feel for the distributions. Hull is a good place to start.

But yea, very technology, capital intensive.
This long sword methdology was conceptual from the CBOT/CME as they tried introduce the product. Although long existed in older portfolios for banking customers in the OTC forex the concepts were not wide spread, except for the elite traders.Is an old practise in London OTC forex where they called it options which was obligatory to be excersised only upon expiry of the contract. Maybe the brainchild of the Llyods insurance company, but i not have any evidence of its introduction except its practises. It transmigrated to america where they modified it.

Well, the person who did deep research on the subject, his name is John Yeo of Citicorp Sg regional SATU and of course yours truly. I don't believed he wrote any books about it.But he did do some papers for in-house use purposes. I believe John did have an understudy if not mistaken,i met him a few times during our discussions, was KahGhee, a director at one of citi's subsidiary companies.

Professors Black and Scholes were about the 1st two researchers who attempted formulate it. The result was an acedemic paper on a fair pricing model.

As this was supposed be top classified stuff, only for citicorp use, only later did some infomation filtered outside the corp.
There was one independant resercher by the name of Dr.Sheldon Natenberg who wrote his reserach findings of the methedology. But because the MO was unclear , i don't believe it caught on well with the market. However i heard he did go about all the finanacial acedamics institutions promoting it.

I have yet to come across any real research material since. As in all things holy grailed, tons of snakeoil sales men would come out with their own interpretations and brand it with their own writings.
The truth is "no one would be willing sell you the goouse that lays the golden eggs." maybe only the eggs.
But unless you needed trade in a couple of yards , the MO of long sword would do nothing for the anchovies.
For me , i feel that was the illusion the market created for themselves.

My modification of John's work, I called it Bliezkierg, just so that it had a name. Mostly because certain methdology of war strategies where incoporated. But the truth I feel not anyone has the human and funds resources operate it at retail levels. Its big boys game and big boys already have the arsenals.



regards
  • #30,290
  • Jan 25, 2012 1:00am Jan 25, 2012 1:00am
Chief....Good Morning,

I am aware of the works of Blake and Scholes. They formulated Blake-Scholes option pricing model. It was actually in my course. Some questions if i may,
How often dealers use options in spot or they do not use options?

As spot is only a small piece as compared to options which is done by big boys......only an awareness of their exposure will do good for spot dealers? and do organizations operate to have alignment in strategy and trade options and spot in same direction?

reards
  • #30,291
  • Edited 2:16am Jan 25, 2012 1:07am | Edited 2:16am
Quoting cuthbert
Chief....Good Morning,

I am aware of the works of Blake and Scholes. They formulated Blake-Scholes option pricing model. It was actually in my course. Some questions if i may,
How often dealers use options in spot or they do not use options?

As spot is only a small piece as compared to options which is done by big boys......only an awareness of their exposure will do good for spot dealers? and do organizations operate to have alignment in strategy and trade options and spot in same direction?

reards
cuthberg,
Long Sword MO is basically just 1 of the myrid strategies available for investments tweaking. In that it requires short sword strategies sustain itself across the tenure of its life span, its effectiveness has strong dependence on the implimentations excercised in the dealers short sword strategies.
So how often will dealers use it?
In fact we not use it, unless have market(customers) requires for its services.
To dealers, when there is need for such, we make "sure pips" as fees that customers pay for use of their strategy.
The fees is for the services required to manage the long sword exposures for the tenure of its existence.
As much human resources as well as funds size required to manage for the successful acomplishing the options strategy.

yes, such managing of it is at the higher treasury managers levels.
its effects filters down to the spot desks. Is no use implimenting long swords at spot, Will only impair their trriger fingers.


regards
  • #30,292
  • Jan 25, 2012 1:10am Jan 25, 2012 1:10am
FTI, I've admired your thread from afar. Interesting you talk about this. Still after all these years, Natenberg's book is still seems to be *the* book because noone else has stepped forward with anything more practical. Taleb's Dynamic Hedging is the other bible, but lacks so much practicality and the maths makes my head spin.

These days, who do you think is behind most of the large vanillas? An ex options desk trader told me over 50% of trades come from GS, but are these for their own book or their clients?
  • #30,293
  • Jan 25, 2012 1:20am Jan 25, 2012 1:20am
Quoting triphop
FTI, I've admired your thread from afar. Interesting you talk about this. Still after all these years, Natenberg's book is still seems to be *the* book because noone else has stepped forward with anything more practical. Taleb's Dynamic Hedging is the other bible, but lacks so much practicality and the maths makes my head spin.

These days, who do you think is behind most of the large vanillas? An ex options desk trader told me over 50% of trades come from GS, but are these for their own book or their clients?
Hi triphop,

welcome.

Is of no benefits wondering where these strategic offshoots comes from.
Everyone of the big guns , all elbowing for the edge. Mostly expect the services requirements from customers. So the big honchos who's having access to large customers (who have rigid needs or ideas) would be the most likely use the service. Like you mentioned, mostly is used to hedge exposures that they trying to manage. Can also be used speculate, but size is required for effectiveness.

I hear many IB(Investment Bs) are packaging zero cost products for their customers. That is nice, only that the customers who only looking at cost forgets about their risk prortfolios.



regards
  • #30,294
  • Jan 25, 2012 1:37am Jan 25, 2012 1:37am
Quoting fti
Hi triphop,

welcome.

Is of no benefits wondering where these strategic offshoots comes from.
Everyone of the big guns , all elbowing for the edge. Mostly expect the services requirements from customers. So the big honchos who's having access to large customers (who have rigid needs or ideas) would be the most likely use the service. Like you mentioned, mostly is used to hedge exposures that they trying to manage. Can also be used speculate, but size is required for effectiveness.

I hear many IB(Investment Bs) are packaging zero cost...
True it's of no benefit, just scratching an itch that's been bugging me for a long time

Big honchos indeed

Ah, the zero cost products. Looks so neat and appealing, a bit like interest free credit. Until the interest rate goes up and you realise what you're on the hook for.

Thanks FTI
  • #30,295
  • Jan 25, 2012 1:50am Jan 25, 2012 1:50am
Quoting cuthbert
six to seven hours in which one have to capture golden 15 minutes.
training my friend, training.

regards
  • #30,296
  • Edited 3:06am Jan 25, 2012 2:01am | Edited 3:06am
Quoting cuthbert
Chief....Good Morning,

I am aware of the works of Blake and Scholes. They formulated Blake-Scholes option pricing model. It was actually in my course. Some questions if i may,
How often dealers use options in spot or they do not use options?

As spot is only a small piece as compared to options which is done by big boys......only an awareness of their exposure will do good for spot dealers? and do organizations operate to have alignment in strategy and trade options and spot in same direction?

reards
cuthbert, you surprises me.
so you can read the greeks, thats great.

Fact is the spot market is much huge compared to long swords. That most long swords need be managed in the short sword arenas. But not be complaycent of its effectiveness, mostly due to its tenure because as time is projected forwards , long swords blends into invisibility.
In a close to zero cost of funds enviroment like now, is easy forget, there is a real market that moves. and it moves subtlely over time.


regards
  • #30,297
  • Edited 3:26am Jan 25, 2012 2:41am | Edited 3:26am
Quoting successlife
Every person is diferent.
And for the same person , need diferent hours in relationship with circunstances.
Im a Neurosurgeon and we learn many thing about sleep.
Sleep is very complex process and have many fases inside.
I am honoured.
whish i had 1 phase , just get in the heart and do some spring cleaning.


regards
  • #30,298
  • Edited 4:10am Jan 25, 2012 3:40am | Edited 4:10am
Quoting indianguyinny24
EXACTLY what i have been thinking recently...showing high hand...you have only army and they an come with army airforce and navy lol...be nimble....


Read the video...

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tL5sY...eature=related
great groove & ambience , only the language not allowed me trancend into the aura.

thanks vic, much appreciate.

Thinking aloud.
would fasting help?
Had an old friend, he lived in the times most of my mentors lived.
Was physician.
He also had heart problems, seemed managed keep expiry away for about 12 years, by starvation.
difficult for eating man

related to that advice capt told me, was another one of our friends, the physician's good buddy.
he lost his whole family when the building that housed them crashed and fell from the hill.
To recover from the grief, seems he lived the rest of his life in casinos, staring at one arm bandits.
Makes one appreciate life so much more and acccept the will of one's life.
so while the grace of God smiles at us, honour it, do no evils.

regards
  • #30,299
  • Jan 25, 2012 4:09am Jan 25, 2012 4:09am
Quoting fti
cuthbert, you surprises me.
so you can read the greeks, thats great.

Fact is the spot market is much huge compared to long swords. That most long swords need be managed in the short sword arenas. But not be complaycent of its effectiveness, mostly due to its tenure because as time is projected forwards , long swords blends into invisibility.
In a close to zero cost of funds enviroment like now, is easy forget, there is a real market that moves. and it moves subtlely over time.

regards
Thankyou Chief,

It was a hard course indeed called 'advanced investment appraisal', but i did learn about futures, forwards, options and swaps. It makes one's head swing if one tries understand them let alone the possibilities of tweaking exposure. But nevertheless i got learn basics of derivatives.
  • #30,300
  • Jan 25, 2012 4:13am Jan 25, 2012 4:13am
Quoting fti
Thinking aloud.
would fasting help?
Not sure about fasting but this can definitely help.

http://www.zumzumstore.com/Articles.asp?ID=239

regards
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