wondeful nice rest.
Technical Analysis Fallacy
- #30,261
- Jan 23, 2012 11:30am Jan 23, 2012 11:30am
- Joined Nov 2007 | Status: Trader | 19,782 Posts
wondeful nice rest.
- #30,262
- Jan 23, 2012 11:32am Jan 23, 2012 11:32am
- Joined Nov 2007 | Status: Trader | 19,782 Posts
Tree mean life.
Man life.
yes that would be nice.thanks
regards
- #30,263
- Edited 11:51am Jan 23, 2012 11:34am | Edited 11:51am
- Joined Nov 2007 | Status: Trader | 19,782 Posts
Hazrat Jaffar R.A says;
Watching a tree in dream can be due to 10 reasons ; (depending upon conditions of tree)
1- King
2- Woman
3- Trader
4- Strong man in Battlefield who does not retreats
5- Aalim ( A Scholar )
6- An honest person
7- An Athiest
8- A helper
9- Fight
10- Wealth ...... that is not exclusively his/her own and he/she has doubt over its ownership
Regards
nice , thanks Mr Hazrat wisdom.
many choices.
I chose 10.
wealth, wealth for everyone, so that we can spread it around ,make world a better place.
thanks cuthbert.
ahhh, remebered 1 more thing, funny,
no colour.
all was in shades of dull green and white.
was a white bench somewhere in there.
under the tree.anyway. thats that, gotta get on.
oh that wasn't a retracement in the euro.
heard the citi boys went big bucks short euro in the options.
and someone tried kick them in the groins.
Hope they not forget wear their ball guards.
if they long euro puts, then they should be ok.just lost a little premium, still have much time.
if they short euro calls, i hope they priced volitility high, then they would still be fine. the premium would still protect them.
but to predict 1.15 euros? now thats very adventurous.
Anyways this whole week's not gonna see much asia liquidity.
So i hope the ants batallion all having a good time.
my time zone 's all scre....feels like a bat.
now i big eyes well rested, but they stopped the fireworks.
so is kinna dull.
regards
- #30,264
- Jan 23, 2012 11:43am Jan 23, 2012 11:43am
nice , thanks Mr Hazrat wisdom.
many choices.
I chose 10.
wealth, wealth for everyone, so that we can spread it around ,make world a better place.
thanks cuthbert.
regards
Its just that I happen to have a book for interpreting dreams of my mother these days.
One correction........we say 'Hazrat' to a pious person in Muslim history. I am not the one.regards
- #30,265
- Jan 23, 2012 11:54am Jan 23, 2012 11:54am
- Joined Nov 2007 | Status: Trader | 19,782 Posts
welcome chief,
Its just that I happen to have a book for interpreting dreams of my mother these days.
regards
Thank you to you.
regards
- #30,266
- Edited 12:07pm Jan 23, 2012 11:54am | Edited 12:07pm
oh that wasn't a retracement in the euro.
heard the citi boys went big bucks short euro in the options.
and someone tried kick them in the groins.
Hope they not forget wear their ball guards.
if they long euro puts, then they should be ok.just lost a little premium, still have much time.
if they short euro calls, i hope they priced volitility high, then they would still be fine. the premium would still protect them.
regards
call is option of buy and put is option to sell for HOLDER. It is a liability for WRITER. I got lost in "if they long euro puts" and "if they short euro calls". How would premium protect them if they priced volatility high?
I got it......."euro put" is an option to sell euros and they longed options to sell......."euro call" is option to buy euros and they shorted options to buy......which would have same effect as longing euro puts except in puts premium is lost.......still thinking
- #30,267
- Edited 1:19pm Jan 23, 2012 11:56am | Edited 1:19pm
- Joined Nov 2007 | Status: Trader | 19,782 Posts
chief,,,!
call is option of buy and put is option to sell for HOLDER. It is a liability for WRITER. I got lost in "if they long euro puts" and "if they short euro calls". How would premium protect them if they priced volatility high?
options is not a binary decision game.
so have more strategic plays.
long call = long underlying
long puts = short underlying
so if long options is buyer of option, so need pay premiums for either long call or long puts.
short call= short underlying
short puts = long underlying.
short options means is writing the options, so recieve premiums writing either the put or call.
the difference between long or short options is that:
if long options need pay premiums, so risk is limited to premiums paid.
if short options, ie writing the risk, is behaving like insurance company, recieve premiums but risk is unlimited and depends on market volitility+4 other market components.
options can be quoted strike price deep in the money, in the money, which means the option has bookvalue.
or quote at the money which means is at where the spot market is.
or out of the money,or deep out of the money, which means that the oprions has no value unless the strike price comes in the money in the spot market.
options is not easy subject for general trading. So unless you want be very professional then you will need to do very intensive course on the subject.
because you will be managing 5 factors
while in general trading is only 1, buy or selling the underlying.
in options the permutations for strategies is unlimited and therefore profitability is not dependant on market movement alone, but speed of market+time+strike +intrinc +volitility++ all becomes strategically useful for profitability.
to discuss this subject , i would need you understand basic options strategies , like the back of your hands. oTherwise i would need write a book, just to get you understand the basic possibilities.
If i go into the advance strategies of the forms of option synthetics possible, probably need write 50 books.
so if you want talk with me about options, you need master the basics of it form, only then would you understand what i am talking about.
Because if i started talking about the different "butterflys" that you can make and the type of "boxes" you can contain the market within you will be lost.
if any trader want go there , we can discuss the implication of "strangles' and "straddles" of the basic forms.
This methedology is only necessary if you are managing very large books, so is not cost effective for small traders. So is not discussable in public. So has no standing on the forum. Discussing the myrid strategies here could drive all the general traders insane.
but these the most powerful tools professionals use to contain risk and make "sure and free" moneys from markets. If you like to try, then study about fair pricing of the markets & options via the different models available. The grand daddy of which is the Black and scholes model.regards
- #30,268
- Edited 1:04pm Jan 23, 2012 12:32pm | Edited 1:04pm
ok.
options is not a binary decision game.
so have more strategic plays.
long call = long underlying
long puts = short underlying
so if long options is buyer of option, so need pay premiums for either long call or long puts.
short call= short underlying
short puts = long underlying.
short options means is writing the options, so recieve premiums writing either the put or call.
the difference between long or short options is that:
if long options need pay premiums, so risk is limited to premiums paid.
if short options, ie writing the risk,...
- #30,269
- Jan 23, 2012 1:18pm Jan 23, 2012 1:18pm
- | Joined Jul 2007 | Status: Trader | 2,994 Posts
ok.
options is not easy subject for general trading. So unless you want be very professional then you will need to do very intensive course on the subject.
because you will be managing 5 factors
while in general trading is only 1, buy or selling the underlying.
in options the permutations for strategies is unlimited and therefore profitability is not dependant on market movement alone, but speed of market+time+strike +intrinc +volitility++ all becomes strategically useful for profitability.
to discuss this subject , i would need you understand basic options strategies , like the back of your hands. oTherwise i would need write a book, just to get you understand the basic possibilities.
If i go into the advance strategies of the forms of option synthetics possible, probably need write 50 books.
so if you want talk with me about options, you need master the basics of it form, only then would you understand what i am talking about.
Because if i started talking about the different "butterflys" that you can make and the type of "boxes" you can contain the market within you will be lost.
if any trader want go there , we can discuss the implication of "strangles' and "straddles" of the basic forms.
... but more i dwell into it more i think at the end we are just managing Book ...go more deep we are managing risk...go more deep we are manging exposure pip by pip...options can only save you a little bit but at the end you get exposed to Risk on options side ( aka paid premium or Exposure)...
so i thought and thought and then i thought leave it to chief..if he wants to teach it will be worth it if not someday i will look on my own...
right now in simple BINARY (buy or sell) gives me good amount of fun this multiple paramters would be fun...
yea but hey it would be fun to sell a put for Euro at 1.15 or call for 1.6 ..whatever small premium i can earn and earn time volatility in it...
anyhow sorry from my blabber
V
- #30,270
- Edited 2:00pm Jan 23, 2012 1:27pm | Edited 2:00pm
- Joined Nov 2007 | Status: Trader | 19,782 Posts
I wanted to ask you so long for this...but thought i dont know enough yet...
I think i have read atleast 10 books for options
options can only save you a little bit but at the end you get exposed to Risk on options side ( aka paid premium or Exposure)...
so i thought and thought and then i thought leave it to chief..if he wants to teach it will be worth it if not...
vic, you are pro.ok, if you are managing , like a whole banks's book. then you must use theis methodlogy because it manages all the possible risk vectors.
for speculation, is not cost effective. Because you will be trying manage profitabilty and speculating on all 5 fronts.
For speculating, what i had presented in thread is the most effective methodology. Simple and efficient.
You see, when you are managing huge big book risk you need contain the all risk parameters. If you speculating then you must function creating risk, so profitability is a function of the risk you want create. if your books are small, containing risk will impair performance. When you managing huge books , then you want contain risk and take smaller pieces,but surely pieces from markets.
Whats was presented ,is how spot delaers function with market risk, which would be the closest for speculating traders.
When managing as Treasury managers, then we need look into the bigger risk picture.
What you mention about the use of synthetic options is not accurate.
You didn't realise that the manager managing all 5 risk vectors, they have choice , which one they want turn up, so is very powerful.
Let me give you analogy for simple understanding, since was talking about hifi recently.
The difference is like if you have amp that have volume control only.
and i have amp that have volume control, bass control, pitch control.........................
Which will be best practises, will be dependant on how loud i play the music.
if i play them all soft , then bass and pitch controls have little or minimal impact to the sound.
But if i had to do like concerts, then the impact is of critical significance.
Back to trades, so the methodology of choice is dependant on book size.
i hope you can see what i trying tell you.
regards
- #30,271
- Jan 23, 2012 2:04pm Jan 23, 2012 2:04pm
- | Joined Jul 2007 | Status: Trader | 2,994 Posts
....ok, if you are managing , like a whole banks's book. then you must use theis methodlogy because it manages all the possible risk vectors.
for speculation, is not cost effective. Because you will be trying manage profitabilty and speculating on all 5 fronts.
For speculating, what i had presented in thread is the most effective methodology. Simple and efficient.
You see, when you are managing huge big book risk you need contain the all risk parameters. If you speculating then you must function creating risk, so profitability is a function of...
I kinda got that picture and i thought may be if you are MarketMaker you can have various control...but for me giving another spread(regardless selling or buying option with time volatiti etc) didnt amde sense to me as this was simple thought...
"If with current Risk i cant make money aka book positive...
what is the gurantee that putting some more risk(rgardless how big or small it is) on book will bring more money.."
So then i went ahead and dropped the idea of the option trading...
now i just enjoy my binary buy and sell ...even in it you can mutliple terrain..increase exposure decrease exposure...add ...reduce...i can go on...
V
PS: hope its not coming as blabber...
- #30,272
- Jan 23, 2012 2:11pm Jan 23, 2012 2:11pm
- Joined Nov 2007 | Status: Trader | 19,782 Posts
i hope you really mean it
I kinda got that picture and i thought may be if you are MarketMaker you can have various control...but for me giving another spread(regardless selling or buying option with time volatiti etc) didnt amde sense to me as this was simple thought...
"If with current Risk i cant make money aka book positive...
what is the gurantee that putting some more risk(rgardless how big or small it is) on book will bring more money.."
So then i went ahead and dropped the idea of the option trading...
now...
lets just assume that ok we want make markets dead ranged.
so without movement , how are we going make money?
speculating participants will have hard times.
but i am bank, so if i make markets dead ranged, i can turn on my time portfolio.
could make as much if not morethan if i made markets volatile. No?
And thats only 1 vector.
regards
Ps like for now, there's much uncertainties in market fundementals.
so as prudence i will turn down my time vector and turn on my volitility vector.
and i have 5 knobs to play around with.
getting the picture?
- #30,274
- Edited 2:38pm Jan 23, 2012 2:25pm | Edited 2:38pm
- Joined Nov 2007 | Status: Trader | 19,782 Posts
Kinda ...so i was not so wrong thinking when you are market maker you have SOME TOOLS (i remeber some thing like kamakazai )...where you can deploy all your tools to move market in one direction...
V
exactly.what do you thinkthey doing now?
they makingit so dang volitile , that if you was speculating, you could get killed, if you not nimble enough flowing the swing.
Why did you think citi is using the options?
if I truely predicting markers drop to 1.5 i would just go rogue and go short the euro , log stock and barrel.
They now have options because they can tweak the exposures as the prediction comes on stream.
Depending on how fast they want to drop the ball or which vector begins, then the turn up that vector.
and tuning up is not only strategy.
Because all is relative , tuning down leaves other can leave other vectors up.
This what treasury managers do. But of course the spot boys is playing the swing game as usual like any speculator.
But the spot boys is only a small piece on the chess board.
regards
- #30,275
- Jan 23, 2012 2:29pm Jan 23, 2012 2:29pm
- | Joined Jul 2007 | Status: Trader | 2,994 Posts
what do you thinkthey doing now?
they makingit so dang volitile , that if you was speculating, you could get killed, if you not nimble enough flowing the swing.
EXACTLY what i have been thinking recently...showing high hand...you have only army and they an come with army airforce and navy lol...be nimble....
Inserted Video
Lambi judai...long wait for lover...
Inserted Video
Read the video...
Inserted Video
- #30,276
- Jan 23, 2012 2:47pm Jan 23, 2012 2:47pm
- | Joined Jul 2007 | Status: Trader | 2,994 Posts
what do you thinkthey doing now?
they makingit so dang volitile , that if you was speculating, you could get killed, if you not nimble enough flowing the swing.
Why did you think citi is using the options?
if I truely predicting markers drop to 1.5 i would just go rogue and go short the euro , log stock and barrel.
They now have options because they can tweak the exposures as the prediction comes on stream.
Depending on how fast they want to drop the ball or which vector begins, then the turn up that vector.
and tuning up is not only...
V
- #30,277
- Jan 23, 2012 2:48pm Jan 23, 2012 2:48pm
- Joined Nov 2007 | Status: Trader | 19,782 Posts
EXACTLY what i have been thinking recently...showing high hand...you have only army and they an come with army airforce and navy lol...be nimble....
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RY2i_...33RVAAAAAAAABw
Lambi judai...long wait for lover...
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hr6Jq9ab1kU
Read the video...
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tL5sY...eature=related
exactlyso if you not have the big guns then you need know how to become undetectable and use your resources prudently.
regards
- #30,280
- Jan 23, 2012 3:02pm Jan 23, 2012 3:02pm
- Joined Nov 2007 | Status: Trader | 19,782 Posts
Main point...
Hows your health and energies...
V
thats the funny thingy.I thoght i had done for it.
But yesterdays incident woke something up.
After the heart attack last year, i keep feeling a lump on the chest, like a stone inside my body.
After yesterday, i had excruting pains in many parts of the body. And today i getting lots cold sweats. lots moving unconforts at brain level.
energies still low.
I still trying figure out if is my mind or my body doing all these acrobatics on me.
last year had much short breath drowning sensations, seems subsiding.not felt that yet this couple of weeks.
Normally i can feel my heart beat easy.
today can't seem feel anyheart beat at all.
I cam't be functioning without one, can I?
nah, ghost cannot type on keyboards
regards