Long Term CICR (Cross index currency referance) trading

Would recommend it , specially the Price reaction and candle confluence.

yup but also remember we pay attention to the weekly and monthly candles as well

thanks cucufx

If you are trying to trade divergence, you will find more success trading hidden divergences.

In my experience, divergences aren't consistently reliable enough to use them for trade entries. Sure you can cherry-pick great examples - and i expect at the end of a trend you will find a divergence there more often than not but i have an awesome indicator that basically finds every divergence on a chart - and what you find is that most of them do not produce a good tradeable move. Divergence by itself is therefore not a high profitability entry technique.

I recommend it, you will learn a lot !!

Hi, Dyekid217.

I just tried to analyze your todays positions.
For example, GBPCHF. Sell was opened almost at the top. But look at the picture below -- on GBPLFX chart:
- red arrow shows an entering bar of GBPCHF
- I don't know what was shown by CICRAlerter at that time, but I see that MACD and cross of filter_line with SMA were not yet occured
- LaguerreRSI was at the top

So, I'm wondering why did you opened Sell position when you opened it, but not now when cross actually occured?

Sarythsaya: Certain definite things about divergence is that it can't be instantly traded from the right side of the chart, it needs at least 2 - 3 candles to confirm itself. They will not work well on shorter TF's like H1 or less. At least h4 min. They will work wonders if identified correctly on the Index, that is much much better than on the pairs. I would disagree when you say they would not produce good moves. The indicator that you are talking about, is it FX5 Macd divergence? If different, please post it here, I would like to check the reason why you make that statement of not good moves. Moreover, i've seen it being plotted wrongly here in this thread as well as other CICR threads, even the main one and also on the FxMech site.

DK: So you are using the h4 macd filter cross, D1 for TD BO's, both on the index. Am i right here? Of course there are plenty other things, but is this the pre qualifier sort of thing?

Demika:
I - No my friend. That's not the CICR. That's Lawgirl System and even that has some pre qualifiers. I gave the link to one of my posts, try to read that as the PDF is a little incoherent at places. There are clear pre-qualifiers before one starts to consider the arrows.

II - In an earlier post I mentioned about the importance of entry price, should be neither too late nor too early. That's an art and even I don't get it right a lot of times. But with the CICR, it's made a lot of difference and I'm able to pick better entry price. As far as the SL or TP is concerned, it's more a part of MM than anything else. A right entry price should have an SL which is behind a recent or historic S&R level. One- the Cicr will help you find a good entry price, Two- That price gauged with the help of CICR will invariably have a relevant S&R level nearby, IMO. Already discussed divergence above. If done well, it very powerful on the Index. Practice it correctly and thank yourself, ... again.

Regards, M.

Any chance of posting that divergence indi you mentioned Sarathsaya?

Cheers
T

Maybe this was allready mentioned, but you can also compare the strenght of currencies here:

http://www.fxmri.com/ (have to register).

Without registration: http://www.forexstrategiesresources....trength-index/

Hi guys if you're wondering about my positions I've taken them based off different factors.

I highly recommend you just test this system yourself as I've stated there are MANY ways you may analyze an entry.

Just play around and see what works

AUDx turned red for the week.
Laguerre is turning over.
MACD is red as well.

USDx has bounced from its monthly support.

wonder if AUDUSD is a good sell from here on in?
AUDUSD @ 1.0465 is kinda very near strong support 1.0450

DyeKid,

What is your criteria for exiting a position?
Just the StopLoss of 100 pips as you mentioned?
Not Support/Resistance levels?
What about change of index strength? ie, from bullish to bearish?

Hi traders,

I'm sorry if I change the whole context of this thread but I want to explain how I trade this system with a small modification implemented.
First I check the daily chart of an index and mainly looking at the macd bars . If they are increasing in size you know what's next, I search for a currency that has the opposite macd daily bars value. I know that DK watches the weekly bars but I think this prevents one from entering earlier and thus missing the perfect time since daily bar is one timeframe larger than the one that we look at the pairs chart.TMHO the best time you can possibly exploit such a position is watching carefully when a daily macd bar is moving from a positive to negative territory or vice versa. When such index is found I wait for the perfect index to couple with. I don't like basket trading in one exception - EUR/USD and EUR/JPY from one side and USD/CHF and EUR/USD from another since USD and JPY almost 80% of the time move in one direction and USD and CHF move in opposite one. The second index that is waited to be found can last a bit but it's better to wait a bit than jumping into risky waters. Next I open the future potential pairs charts e.g.: USD/pair1,USD/pair2,USD/pair3 and if after 2,3 bars I found that USD is my first pair the second one is moving in the expected direction i take the trade. But there's also something more, I combine this pair move with a channel or a level break. If there's no such one I would quite consider the validity of this position. Laguerre on a daily pair chart when approaching 0.15 or 0.75 level is also another alert to look for a potential trade. Secondary but not less important factor is the type of the candle. If I see a hanging man crossing a certain level according to the rule mentioned above I would quite consider its validity too.Almost no attention in my trading is taken when considering the filter lines on the chart and the mtf Rsi indicator because the first ones quite often cross each other when a trade is just retracing for a few bars later it still proceeds further into profit and the second one quite often doesn't take any role in my plans because it often gives 5 one-colour arrows and still this is a wrong decision to take based on obvious loss of interest in such pair.

Next, I agree that a move has to be given a little time to start giving profits but I assume I'm wrong when I see strong move in the opposite direction (whipsaw) and especially if 4h macd pair bar start changing its value after shortly it's been moving according to my expectations. I also start getting cautious if I find divergence and move my stoploss right below/above the recent low/high. There's another solution to this: part of the trade is taken at the recent low/high and another part is stopped at the entry level in the worst scenario.

The last trade I took according to this method was EUR/USD. I missed the EUR/JPY.

What I saw first was the USD daily macd bar changing direction at 16am on 18th(GMT+1). If you look at the 4h chart you'll see the divergence between the 9 and 13.01 tops and the macd. Except that, USD index was moving in channel in the last 10 days and the top line of it was hit so I expected a downmove anyway at least to the lower channel line. The opposite can be stated for the EUR index except that it moved in channel from 29.12 till 12.01 and after that it broke the upper channel line, retraced to it with the 13.01 downmove and then moved upward.

So my choice went for the EUR/USD and my target level initially was the 17.10-16.01 upper channel line hit on the EUR index but now I think that price can go further if it doesn't move too lower after it shows lack of strength and divergence with macd on the 4h pair chart.

I moved my stoploss right below the recent lower high and if price moves upwards tomorrow ,meets resistance in the range between 1.3000-1.3050 and then falls below the lower channel line I'll close my position. Please comment. I want to know what you think about that. Appologies for my English but it's not my native one.

BTW look at the AUD index divergence on a daily chart. Expect some loss of interest these days or the beginning of a downtrend.

CAD also made a break of a long trendline and a retest of it from the other side. Downmove can be expected.

I also use MACD crossover for signal.
It is a lagging indicator no doubt and following a crossover is often delayed. Trying to use it on lower time frame may give me earlier signal however, is prone to "noise" / false signal caused by volatility.

It is therefore a trade-off using MACD on lower time frame vs higher time frame. I suggest using MACD on lower time frame with another indicator for confirmation to avoid noise/false signals.


As for AUD, I also see possible fall as well.

same here.. but with usd falling as well for now audusd might not be the best pair to trade right now.

I'm looking at NZDUSD for now.

I noticed you took a LONG AUDUSD.
Why? Was it because of a bullish AUDx, bearish USD on the last 4H candle?

hey guys still trading this with success..

Just added a UC short to my positions with all other positions doing relatively well.

Tried using CICR on an intraday basis but was having mixed results.. .Will stick to swing trading from here on out.. much less stressful and I only have to check my charts once-twice a day

Hi Dyekid,

This method looks very good. Looking foward to see your posts and signals to share with us bros here.

looking at the equity report i guess this isn't doing so well now. shame it was a logical idea

This thread seems to be dead.
Dyekid seems also to be now interested by another trading system.
The question which remains asked to him: Is CICR remains profitable for him ? Not too as It seems to be