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Long Term CICR (Cross index currency referance) trading

  • #201
  • Jan 19, 2012 9:33am Jan 19, 2012 9:33am
Quoting Erebus
@ Demika,

Sorry, perhaps we are reluctant to answer about the arrows as we are all learning the method & watching how the indicators behave, tha same as you.
Sounds plausible, thanks for your answer.

Quoting McNish
Hello Demika,
The way U described in your earlier post your style of trading this method, I can vouch that the approach is wrong as far as the CICR is concerned. There is a PDF on the first post of CICR system by Capito. This PDF is the jist of the system. Please read it carefully. You may not understand it clearly at first but then that's the way with the first time. I myself read and re-read the PDF altest 5 times to make clear sense and even then I had questions. After you read it couple times and get a hang of what is said, I suggest...
Fantastic answer, thanks a lot for this one. I already skimmed the PDF but I was just looking for s.th. like a formular how the arrows are calculated. I'll read it vigilantly and hopefully most of my questions will be answered then. Seems that I was too focused on the arrows. Usually I do not copy certain strategies instead I take some points which sound good and mix them which others elements I already know. E.g. I don't like MACD divergences so I just left this part out of "my" CICR version. It appears that this does not work with CICR.
  • #202
  • Jan 19, 2012 11:51am Jan 19, 2012 11:51am
Quoting Demika
How do you get you exits? Just shorted GBP/CHF because four out of five arrows in GGPLFX turned red while all five arrows in GBP/CHF were red:

Attachment

Now, just 15 minutes later in GBP/CHF H1 is blue, H4 and D1 are yellow so the strenght/weakness on which the trade is mainly based does not exist anymore. Would you close the trade now or just set a SL let's say 50 pips away and see what happens?

Btw. it's a real pity that no ones seems to be able or willing to answer my question how to deal with the quick switches, even in D1 arrows....
Demika, I think it is important to have the RSI (3) indicator on the chart, or like I have the All_RSI indicator where you can watch all timeframes on one chart. I have it on my H1 chart and I watch the H1, H4, D1, W1 and MN RSI (3) at the same time.

I have attached a picture of EURLFX H1. Look at the direction of the latest H1 RSI (3). Currently it is pointing down, thus you see a red arrow on the CICR alerter. Now look at the direction of the H4 RSI (3), it is pointing down as well, thats why you see a red arrow on the CICR alerter. Now watch the daily RSI (3). It is nicely pointing up, which means a blue arrow, same on the W1 RSI (3). The monthly RSI (3) is going sideways, thats why the arrow is yellow.

Now compare the RSI (3) directions with the candlesticks.

 

  1. The current H1 candle is red, RSI (3) pointing down, CICR alerter arrow is red.
  2. The current H4 candle is red, RSI (3) pointing down, CICR alerter arrow is red.
  3. The current D1 candle is blue, RSI (3) pointing up, CICR alerter arrow is blue.
  4. The current W1 candle is blue, RSI (3) pointing up, CICR alerter arrow is blue.
  5. The current MN candle is red, however its losing momentum, RSI (3) is going sideways, CICR alerter arrow is yellow.


On the RSI (3) you can also see whether the RSI is overbought or oversold. I mainly watch the daily RSI (3) for overbought and oversold levels.

I hope this helps you to understand the CICR alerter arrows better!

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurlfxh1.jpg Size: 124 KB
  • #203
  • Jan 19, 2012 4:13pm Jan 19, 2012 4:13pm
Quoting fguru
Demika, I think it is important to have the RSI (3) indicator on the chart, or like I have the All_RSI indicator where you can watch all timeframes on one chart. I have it on my H1 chart and I watch the H1, H4, D1, W1 and MN RSI (3) at the same time.

I have attached a picture of EURLFX H1. Look at the direction of the latest H1 RSI (3). Currently it is pointing down, thus you see a red arrow on the CICR alerter. Now look at the direction of the H4 RSI (3), it is pointing down as well, thats why you see a red arrow...
Excellent explanation, thank you! Dyekid217 maybe you can start a list of posts woth reading in your post #1 like it's been done in some other threads. Would be a good chance for people who are new to this strategy to get all the important facts and I think it would help some current readers of this thread, too. In my opinion fgurus post should definitely be pinned somewhere.
  • #204
  • Edited 3:34am Jan 20, 2012 3:23am | Edited 3:34am
Hello People,

Now we're getting somewhere. FG, we'll explained. I too picked a point or two certainly. None the less, this is a cicr long term system what we are talking about and what Demika is doing specifically is looking for short term moves, - please correct me if i'm wrong here. If that is the case, well ... wrong thread this to talk about. If not and we are talking about the Long term Cicr, in that case too, my belief is that RSI (3) is a very very short momentum indicator, thus the importance is more on the higher TF, atlest H4 and it will be more effective on the index, but higher TF for this are much stable thus Captain has stressed on D1 and W1 at least. Here too we are concerned about the direction of the Rsi and not the number. Another point here is that there are pre qualified conditions to be met before we can start looking at the arrows. The sequence of arrows falling in place when requisite conditions are met is like perfect co-relation of time frames, the second most important aspect of TA, IMO. Since this excercise is done on the Indices, we have a co-relation of the currencies, the first most important aspect of TA, again IMO. That's the two main ingredients that make this system successful. Currency co-relation and time frame co-relation.

Demika: I too have tried cherry picking the indicators from various systems but gradually realised that the two functions stated above are the crux of TA. And CICR has both. Don't just take an element in isolation, get the logic behind it, don't blindly follow the crowd. Any system is as good as your understanding of it and it's disciplined application. Every time an individual applies a certain system, it's like guaranteed that there will be some element of the system that will change according to the individual using it. Along with the CICR, I cherry pick from NB 10.1, TDI (S3), a different type of MACD than suggested with CICR, a small part of THV and some elements of my own. And I still try to keep my charts clean to be able to read PA clearly and have a different qulifiers which I rely on to give me good entry. I believe that entry is the key. Once use have a good entry point and give a breathing space for the trade in the form of a decent SL, it is rarely you'll end up on the loosing side.
Who told you divergence don't work on CICR. It a leading indicator and it's use on the index is like a power horse, you'd be a fool to miss out on this one. Though I've seen people here use different method to calculate it, it works. Read up thoroughly on divergence on Babypips and thank your self when you see the results. Hope you get the drift.

M.
There is no such thing as LUCK ! Chance favors the prepared mind.
  • #205
  • Jan 20, 2012 3:53am Jan 20, 2012 3:53am
I am curious:
When you say "Long Term", what do you mean?

a) do you mean to use Longer Time Frame? ie, at least H4, D1?
b) do you mean to make trades that will last at least a day? this implies a target of 400+ pips and a stoploss of at least 100~200 pips?
c) or what?

RIght now, I am using H4 charts using the default template "ALL IN ONE", each chart having Demark, Laguerre, Laguerre Filter Line, MACD.
  • #206
  • Jan 20, 2012 8:52am Jan 20, 2012 8:52am
Quoting Kruspe
its working now, I turned off autodetect , thx Dyekid
Hello Kruspe,

Where is autodetect option in Sigtrader? I m facing the same issue. Kindly help.

Thanks,
Arun
What Goes Up Must Come Down, But When?
  • #207
  • Jan 20, 2012 9:26am Jan 20, 2012 9:26am
Quoting ragnakore
I am curious:
When you say "Long Term", what do you mean?

a) do you mean to use Longer Time Frame? ie, at least H4, D1?
b) do you mean to make trades that will last at least a day? this implies a target of 400+ pips and a stoploss of at least 100~200 pips?
c) or what?

RIght now, I am using H4 charts using the default template "ALL IN ONE", each chart having Demark, Laguerre, Laguerre Filter Line, MACD.


Yes I usually let my long term trades run for atleast 48 hours.. Sometimes atleast 72

And the autodetect feature is on the cicr alerter indicator. It's under the properties of the indicator
  • #208
  • Jan 20, 2012 9:57am Jan 20, 2012 9:57am
Thanks Dyekid,

I m able to see the arrows moving in all the 8 charts except the last(GPBLFX). When I right click on the 9th chart, there is no attached indicator to it. Which indicator I should load to the 9th chart?

Arun
What Goes Up Must Come Down, But When?
  • #209
  • Jan 20, 2012 11:07am Jan 20, 2012 11:07am
same indicator.. should be the CICR Alerter. In the inputs you need to make sure the pairs selected are

USDLFX,EURLFX,GBPLFX.. ETC. for all the indices (make sure theres no spaces between commas)

And set autodetect to false
  • #210
  • Jan 20, 2012 1:39pm Jan 20, 2012 1:39pm
Maybe having an epiphany here. Just trade the index based on MACD crossovers..could it be that easy?
(assuming that you can get an account with Liteforex)
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: AUDLFX 1-20-2012 daily.jpg Size: 225 KB
  • #211
  • Jan 20, 2012 1:40pm Jan 20, 2012 1:40pm
Am I mistaken in believing this is only available to accounts OUTSIDE the US. I tried opening a demo account with the broker you mention in the first posting and they are not open to us clientele. Unfortunate considering I think your method can be very useful.

Thanks!
  • #212
  • Jan 20, 2012 3:30pm Jan 20, 2012 3:30pm
That's incorrect I'm in new York. Usually when the broker asks what country your from you don't have to be truthful about it since you are just opening a demo.

If u need more help let me know


Also I would not trade the indices just because the spread is so high but that's up to you. You can still make a good return on pairs
  • #213
  • Jan 21, 2012 12:58am Jan 21, 2012 12:58am
Quoting ibotman
Maybe having an epiphany here. Just trade the index based on MACD crossovers..could it be that easy?
(assuming that you can get an account with Liteforex)
Bad idea, they are way too expensive.
  • #214
  • Jan 21, 2012 2:13am Jan 21, 2012 2:13am
Hi Dyekid217, which method do you use for the entry ?
early H4 MACD1/Filter line cross over or later TD supply/demand trendline breakout ?

because I got some good trades with the second one the TD line breakout but it's a later entry then H4 MACD1/filter line cross and then I don't know exactly where to exit after TD line breakout entry, it seems to be too late.
Maybe I think if you enter in advance on the MACD1/Filter line cross it's better although it's a weaker entry than TD line breakout, but then you have more room for the exit.
Maybe you think to long exit after days on the daily TF ?
I mean all this obviously after analyze index and choosed the strenght/weak pair to trade.
  • #215
  • Jan 21, 2012 10:11am Jan 21, 2012 10:11am
Honestly I was thinking the same thing.. But I don't really use the td breakouts on the 4 hr. I like to use them on the daily or above just because the pip projection is much higher. My exits are usually my trailing stops getting hit.
I trail my stop for every 100-150 pips gained just because my stop is 100-150 pips and I want to maintain a 1:1 ratio
  • #216
  • Jan 21, 2012 2:54pm Jan 21, 2012 2:54pm
Quoting McNish
Hello Demika,
The way U described in your earlier post your style of trading this method, I can vouch that the approach is wrong as far as the CICR is concerned. There is a PDF on the first post of CICR system by Capito. This PDF is the jist of the system.
I've read the PDF and it appears to me that I'm more or less following the rules, but at least my approach seems to be the same:

1. Choose index if all arrows are pointing up or down.
2. Go into that index and decide which pair(s) are likely most profitable

Quoting McNish
Hello People,

Now we're getting somewhere. FG, we'll explained. I too picked a point or two certainly. None the less, this is a cicr long term system what we are talking about and what Demika is doing specifically is looking for short term moves, - please correct me if i'm wrong here. If that is the case, well ... wrong thread this to talk about.
Depends on what your understanding of "long-term" is. For me it's at least 24h in forex, much longer in stock markets. I'm not looking for short term moves (well, I am but not with this system) but if a position runs 50/60 pips against me I just close this trade - even if I opened it just one hour ago.

Quoting McNish
Demika: I too have tried cherry picking the indicators from various systems but gradually realised that the two functions stated above are the crux of TA. And CICR has both. Don't just take an element in isolation, get the logic behind it, don't blindly follow the crowd.
That's why I am asking questions

Quoting McNish
Who told you divergence don't work on CICR. It a leading indicator and it's use on the index is like a power horse, you'd be a fool to miss out on this one. Though I've seen people here use different method to calculate it, it works. Read up thoroughly on divergence on Babypips and thank your self when you see the results. Hope you get the drift.
No one told me, it's my own experience over years. It's not that hard to look for divergences in the past but if you are watching a charts it actually is not easy to see these divergences and often (my experience once again) if divergence is completed, the move has already been started. Nevertheless I'll read through the posts on babypips, always willing to learn
  • #217
  • Jan 21, 2012 2:59pm Jan 21, 2012 2:59pm
Thanks for the information. Got the platform download and the demo acct.

GL
  • #218
  • Jan 21, 2012 3:30pm Jan 21, 2012 3:30pm
divergence is pretty tricky I think because the MACD will often change the bars from a couple candles previous as well.

BUT I've heard from many many many pro traders that if you learn to trade divergence. That alone will increase your profits ten fold
  • #219
  • Jan 22, 2012 3:05am Jan 22, 2012 3:05am
Quoting Dyekid217
Honestly I was thinking the same thing.. But I don't really use the td breakouts on the 4 hr. I like to use them on the daily or above just because the pip projection is much higher. My exits are usually my trailing stops getting hit.
I trail my stop for every 100-150 pips gained just because my stop is 100-150 pips and I want to maintain a 1:1 ratio
Really, you use on the daily ? well... sounds good....
I prefer daily tf too, much more relax and free stress trading ...
but I suppose that you put an eye on H4 tf too.... maybe just to refine your entry... and see what is happening in more detail.
  • #220
  • Jan 22, 2012 7:19am Jan 22, 2012 7:19am
Dyekid217, did you try the paid service fx education group ? how is it ? is it good ?
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