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  • #39,221
  • Jan 20, 2012 12:14am Jan 20, 2012 12:14am
Quoting ibotman
What does the news from China mean for the aussie PA? Translation, thoughts?

http://www.forexfactory.com/news.php?do=news&id=337726
it means we "still" in recession
  • #39,222
  • Jan 20, 2012 12:52am Jan 20, 2012 12:52am
Quoting redbox
it means we "still" in recession
Who is "we" and what recession?
Don't get mad, get even!
  • #39,223
  • Jan 20, 2012 1:35am Jan 20, 2012 1:35am
another Dump the USD day
  • #39,224
  • Jan 20, 2012 2:20am Jan 20, 2012 2:20am
Quoting stulic
Who is "we" and what recession?
sorry, i mean "china"

recession because their export are dropping.
  • #39,225
  • Jan 20, 2012 2:39am Jan 20, 2012 2:39am
Quoting redbox
sorry, i mean "china"

recession because their export are dropping.
Recession is opposite of growth, China's economy is still growing at almost 9% annually, if anything or anybody cannot be put in one sentence with recession then it's gotta be China.
Don't get mad, get even!
  • #39,226
  • Jan 20, 2012 2:51am Jan 20, 2012 2:51am
i disagree that china is in recession.
Recession means negative GDP.

Below 50 PMI means slowing down of economy and not recession.


as an analogy, you are driving a car at 50KPH. You applied brake and naturally car will slowdown with speed below 50Kph. This is what China is currently.
But if you drive in reverse, then thats the equivalent of recession. China has 8+% GDPfar from reccession. Germany IS in recession with negative GDP atm.
  • #39,227
  • Jan 20, 2012 3:53am Jan 20, 2012 3:53am
In economics, a recession is a business cycle contraction, a general slowdown in economic activity.[1][2] During recessions, many macroeconomic indicators vary in a similar way. Production, as measured by gross domestic product (GDP), employment, investment spending, capacity utilization, household incomes, business profits, and inflation all fall, while bankruptcies and the unemployment rate rise.

from wikipedia.


recession doesn't need to be negative GDP
  • #39,228
  • Jan 20, 2012 4:00am Jan 20, 2012 4:00am
From 04:56 20-Jan-2012 GMT
Till 08:56 20-Jan-2012 GMTFilled
Sold at 1.0432
Bought at 1.0385
Profit 47 pips
very nice, good price..!
  • #39,229
  • Jan 20, 2012 4:02am Jan 20, 2012 4:02am
ahhh got it..
So China in Recession: PMI < 50, GDP > 8%
USA not in Recession: ISM > 60, GDP ~ 3%
Europe NOT in recession: PMI improving (albeit negative), GDP negative



anyways

market is selling EURAUD and EURUSD
Not necessarily selling AUDUSD.
  • #39,230
  • Jan 20, 2012 4:05am Jan 20, 2012 4:05am
4 hours 48 minutes ago
From 04:56 20-Jan-2012 GMT
Till 08:56 20-Jan-2012 GMTFilled
Sold at 1.0432
Bought at 1.0385
very nice, good price..!
  • #39,231
  • Jan 20, 2012 4:06am Jan 20, 2012 4:06am
Quoting redbox
In economics, a recession is a business cycle contraction, a general slowdown in economic activity.
Whoever wrote this is wrong, the whole sentence is contradictory anyway, a contraction is the opposite of expansion meaning the economy is not growing but shrinking, a general slowdown in economic activity is a different thing all together, but it's not a recession, period.
Don't get mad, get even!
  • #39,232
  • Jan 20, 2012 4:08am Jan 20, 2012 4:08am
Quoting stulic
Recession is opposite of growth, China's economy is still growing at almost 9% annually, if anything or anybody cannot be put in one sentence with recession then it's gotta be China.
large portion of their GDP came from empty (not-used) building (even a ghost city). i'm not count this as product that has 100% value of their price. evidence: China house price fall sharp in late 2011.

sorry if my english is poor, i;m not native speaker.
  • #39,233
  • Jan 20, 2012 4:10am Jan 20, 2012 4:10am
Quoting stulic
Whoever wrote this is wrong, the whole sentence is contradictory anyway, a contraction is the opposite of expansion, a general slowdown in economic activity is not a recession, period.
In my erstwhile work, we used to joke that a recession is when your neighbour lost his job, and a depression is when you lost your job.

No rigid standard definition, but the general idea used in most statistics and general parlance is a fall in real national output for 2 consecutive quarters. Then the real national output is itself a loose term. GDP is often used.

This might be interesting to some: http://www.economist.com/node/12207987
  • #39,234
  • Jan 20, 2012 4:13am Jan 20, 2012 4:13am
Quoting ragnakore
ahhh got it..
So China in Recession: PMI < 50, GDP > 8%
USA not in Recession: ISM > 60, GDP ~ 3%
Europe NOT in recession: PMI improving (albeit negative), GDP negative
PMI is only an index, if below 50 it means contracting compared to previous month (if released monthly), it doesn't necessarily mean less then same time last year.
Don't get mad, get even!
  • #39,235
  • Jan 20, 2012 4:14am Jan 20, 2012 4:14am
Quoting stulic
Whoever wrote this is wrong, the whole sentence is contradictory anyway, a contraction is the opposite of expansion meaning the economy is not growing but shrinking, a general slowdown in economic activity is a different thing all together, but it's not a recession, period.

back to topic,

whatever its called recession or not,
they will import less than before (from Australia )
if AUD stand high like now for long period, it will force RBA to lower rate (again)
  • #39,236
  • Jan 20, 2012 4:21am Jan 20, 2012 4:21am
Quoting redbox
back to topic,

whatever its called recession or not,
they will import less than before (from Australia )
if AUD stand high like now for long period, it will force RBA to lower rate (again)
They will cut rates that's almost certain but we've seen the Aussie chewing it's way back up after every single rate cut last year, so who knows how much impact it will have on the exchange rate in mid terms.
Don't get mad, get even!
  • #39,237
  • Jan 20, 2012 4:35am Jan 20, 2012 4:35am
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0381; (P) 1.0407; (R1) 1.0443
very nice, good price..!
  • #39,238
  • Jan 20, 2012 4:38am Jan 20, 2012 4:38am
Quoting stulic
They will cut rates that's almost certain but we've seen the Aussie chewing it's way back up after every single rate cut last year, so who knows how much impact it will have on the exchange rate in mid terms.
yes, the market can remain irrational for longer period

but RBA still has a lot of room to lower rate so i think they will keep lowering (gradually) their rate to send carry trader back home

c'mon, what you think of AUD strength from?
* wheat, wool, gold, metal price fall
* trade surplus narrowed
* consumer confidence fall, they will keep money at their pocket
* growth? what the meaning if interest rate is greater than growth?
  • #39,239
  • Jan 20, 2012 5:29am Jan 20, 2012 5:29am
Quoting redbox
yes, the market can remain irrational for longer period

but RBA still has a lot of room to lower rate so i think they will keep lowering (gradually) their rate to send carry trader back home

c'mon, what you think of AUD strength from?
* wheat, wool, gold, metal price fall
* trade surplus narrowed
* consumer confidence fall, they will keep money at their pocket
* growth? what the meaning if interest rate is greater than growth?
* commodity prices are still bullish, I don't see anything falling just yet
* trade surplus might be narrowing, is still strong though and the investment pipeline into new mining sites and LNG projects for the next couple of years is massive
* people buy stuff online due to strong dollar, also people tend to spend less when there's doom and gloom news about Europe popping up on TV every day, even tho locally everything seams just fine
* growth means a lot when every other OCD country is battling a recession
Don't get mad, get even!
  • #39,240
  • Jan 20, 2012 7:32am Jan 20, 2012 7:32am
I think today is the day for this pair to decide the direction..i am waiting for the weekly candle to close below the resistance trend line.

Hopefully it will go down like hell or it will hit my stop at 1.0455..
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