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AUD/USD

  • #39,181
  • Jan 19, 2012 1:43am Jan 19, 2012 1:43am
Possible rising wedge on the daily chart?
  • #39,182
  • Jan 19, 2012 2:25am Jan 19, 2012 2:25am
Quoting nelso
To the people who are long, I wish all the best, but besides all your TA you have to do some FA as well. Australia cannot function for long when the rate is above parity. Tourism and exports (farming produce mainly) cannot compete in this market. These two sectors employ a large % of the population.

Do a bit of research and have a look at what things cost here and what things cost in the USA. I know the USD is struggling, but the AUD is ridiculously over valued. You can definatly make a bit of money going long in the short term, but there is...
maybe there are some groups who wanna screw australia by appreciating the currency then shorting it at high level.

this is exactly what happened in asia financial crisis in 1997. Malaysia claimed Soros was responsible for appreciating Asia currencies then shorting it.
  • #39,183
  • Jan 19, 2012 3:29am Jan 19, 2012 3:29am
  •  tw2009
  • | Joined Dec 2011 | Status: Bulls make money, Bears make money. | 13 Posts
Reenter trade long as 1.0382 is a good support. target 1.0750
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  • #39,184
  • Jan 19, 2012 3:42am Jan 19, 2012 3:42am
Quoting tw2009
target 1.0750
Use me as a contrarian indicator
  • #39,185
  • Jan 19, 2012 3:43am Jan 19, 2012 3:43am
Quoting nelso
To the people who are long, I wish all the best, but besides all your TA you have to do some FA as well. Australia cannot function for long when the rate is above parity. Tourism and exports (farming produce mainly) cannot compete in this market. These two sectors employ a large % of the population.

Do a bit of research and have a look at what things cost here and what things cost in the USA. I know the USD is struggling, but the AUD is ridiculously over valued. You can definatly make a bit of money going long in the short term, but there is...
Not quite true, exporting industries only account for 10% of overall employment in Australia, in fact stronger Aussie Dollar makes imports cheaper and brings more profits to commodity exporting industries especially since the demand is not slowing but in fact growing exponentially every year.
Strong Aussie hasn't hurt the export industry at all, the only ones complaining are the tourism and retail because of more and more people buying stuff online overseas instead of paying ridiculous prices locally.
Hell I got my Nike's shipped from the UK for 86 bucks all incl, same ones that cost 199 at foot locker here.
Don't get mad, get even!
  • #39,186
  • Jan 19, 2012 3:49am Jan 19, 2012 3:49am
Quoting tw2009
target 1.0750

  • #39,187
  • Jan 19, 2012 4:47am Jan 19, 2012 4:47am
Quoting ombletrader
Possible rising wedge on the daily chart?
Check this out.... i think its just a false break, still might run to 1.05 on the 123 extention but fundemantals will come into the play then.... they r going to cut rates soon
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  • #39,188
  • Edited 8:06am Jan 19, 2012 7:45am | Edited 8:06am
Hello guys,

I don't participate in forum chat's. but today i did because of what i saw on my charts so wanted to share with you guys.


There is a nice confluence of trend lines and Fibonacci setup on the weekly chart.. I believe this pair should at least give 400-500 pips shorting at the current level


what do you guys say?
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  • #39,189
  • Jan 19, 2012 8:29am Jan 19, 2012 8:29am
it seems that candles are in a swamp area the suitable strategy for this situation is to wait until the swamps drained out then run away with the smart candles
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12h chart
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4h chart

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considering the indi on the 4h personally im waiting for a double top of indi then it may be falling heavily
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  • #39,190
  • Jan 19, 2012 9:13am Jan 19, 2012 9:13am
Quoting rustyram
Looks like finally it going to move north....

All those patient people, you payout is comming be patient....

After some some up move, will move the SL to BE.
I closed my position for just 20 Pips.
When EUR is making higher high's this stupid AUD is just sitting there.

Looks like when EUR retraces, this guy will join hands to go low.

Will look for signals at 1.0330 area to get long....
PPP - Patience Pays PIPS
  • #39,191
  • Jan 19, 2012 9:15am Jan 19, 2012 9:15am
Quoting fx-rocket
-But first price will go to my Tp @ 1.0308
looks like it is going to go low, before it heads up...
i closed my long, will look to get in at 1.0330/20 area..if the sigals are correct.
PPP - Patience Pays PIPS
  • #39,192
  • Jan 19, 2012 9:16am Jan 19, 2012 9:16am
I have already entered short at 1.0423 stop at 1.0455 target 1.0250

Let's see how it goes.. i am in with 50 standard lots

Quoting Navid
it seems that candles are in a swamp area the suitable strategy for this situation is to wait until the swamps drained out then run away with the smart candles Attachment

12h chart
Attachment

4h chart

Attachment

considering the indi on the 4h personally im waiting for a double top of indi then it may be falling heavily Attachment
  • #39,193
  • Jan 19, 2012 9:22am Jan 19, 2012 9:22am
hello
i want to re-share my plan which can be completely wrong.

this can be an epic fake bullfalg!!!
right above it there is a daily+weekly descending TL tested twice.
and overall price is printing a rising wedge in h4 + daily.

today price didn't move, i guess on a balance between suppl and demand.
now, when this happens i usually llok at main factor:
is it most important the uptrend in a rising wedge printing lower highs or is it most important a daily descending line where at previous touch price rejected for something like 1000pips?!

just to say.....
good luck every one.
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  • #39,194
  • Jan 19, 2012 9:28am Jan 19, 2012 9:28am
Price snaking around pivot in a simetrical triangle. Momentum looks like it is falling, but been burnt too many times shorting this thing to wanna jump in now.
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  • #39,195
  • Jan 19, 2012 9:33am Jan 19, 2012 9:33am
I planned to short @ 1.0425 after a failure to break through 1.0440.. It went up to 1.04235 ...

Now I am waiting @ 1.0410

I am not comfortable shorting though.. there are too many retails short AUDUSD.
  • #39,196
  • Jan 19, 2012 10:15am Jan 19, 2012 10:15am
Guys, really I don't get it...

IT'S AN UPTREND, period. BUY THE DIPS.
Use me as a contrarian indicator
  • #39,197
  • Jan 19, 2012 10:31am Jan 19, 2012 10:31am
Quoting ragnakore
I planned to short @ 1.0425 after a failure to break through 1.0440.. It went up to 1.04235 ...

Now I am waiting @ 1.0410

I am not comfortable shorting though.. there are too many retails short AUDUSD.
Hi ragnakore,

where did you get data on retails short volume? any help would be appreciated!
  • #39,198
  • Jan 19, 2012 10:52am Jan 19, 2012 10:52am
Quoting mrbandwidth
Guys, really I don't get it...

IT'S AN UPTREND, period. BUY THE DIPS.
I agree... But we are at the top at the moment. Will go Long once we get to the entry level

BTW. AUDx is exhausted after peaking last Tuesday.
  • #39,199
  • Jan 19, 2012 10:58am Jan 19, 2012 10:58am
Quoting ragnakore
I agree... But we are at the top at the moment. Will go Long once we get to the entry level
which is where?
  • #39,200
  • Jan 19, 2012 10:58am Jan 19, 2012 10:58am
Quoting BergenGlobal
Hi ragnakore,

where did you get data on retails short volume? any help would be appreciated!
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