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AUD/USD

  • #39,101
  • Jan 18, 2012 3:13am Jan 18, 2012 3:13am
Quoting Spoony
Sometimes, it just amazes me. It was up to 1.041 and only in 20 mins dropped more than 50 points for no news at all :S

Also stopped out, will see wat happens later.
Unless you call this news ???

Fitch rating agency has threatened to downgrade Italian sovereign debt by two notches from current A+ rating sending EUR/USD plunging in early European trade. According to Reuters a senior director from Fitch indicated that the ratings agency was preparing to lower the ratings on Europe’s third largest economy.

The news killed the recovery rally in risk FX with EUR/USD quickly reversing its Asian session gains as the pair tumbled from 1.2805 to 1.2740 in a matter of minutes. Earlier, the euro rallied on optimism over a possible deal on the restructuring of Greek debt.

The persistent threat of of sovereign debt downgrades hangs over the Eurozone like the sword of Damocles yet each new announcement from the ratings agencies is having less and less impact on the market with most of the credit risks now priced in. After dropping through the 1.2750 level in its initial reaction to the news the EUR/USD appears to have stabilized and if the pair can recover back to 1.2800 as the day proceeds it will be testament to the fact that the euro is now so oversold that any threat of further downgrades is having minimal impact on it price.
It takes a lot for me to IGNORE you, but you can try.
  • #39,102
  • Jan 18, 2012 4:15am Jan 18, 2012 4:15am
Back in early November, 1.0450 was a resistance that held for several days before the eventual drop below parity.

Yesterday, AUD got rejected on that level again.
I believe that with all the money around wanting to invest, AUDUSD can break it within the week.

Greece IIF talk is showing some signs of agreement favoring the IIF. I perceive that as market positive.
  • #39,103
  • Jan 18, 2012 4:21am Jan 18, 2012 4:21am
Quoting redteamgo
looking again now it certainly appears that 0380 held despite that dip

market long @ 1.0378
limit long @ 1.0355

stopped below today's hourly support

target.. 1.0520
limit was filled overnight. exit planned at target or rejection at 0450
Any prices quoted are futures
  • #39,104
  • Jan 18, 2012 6:33am Jan 18, 2012 6:33am
I am having hard time trying to understand what in hell why this pair wont go up and stay up today.

WTF good news abound nothing bad, so why is this still capped!

during times of depressing bad news, it wants to go up. now in lit of good news its not zooming... great

wished i am short
  • #39,105
  • Jan 18, 2012 6:33am Jan 18, 2012 6:33am
im not a wave expert
but here is what i see
we are in the making of yellow wave3
in the big red wave 3
dont takeit on its only my vue
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #39,106
  • Jan 18, 2012 8:25am Jan 18, 2012 8:25am
Quoting ragnakore
I am having hard time trying to understand what in hell why this pair wont go up and stay up today.

WTF good news abound nothing bad, so why is this still capped!

during times of depressing bad news, it wants to go up. now in lit of good news its not zooming... great

wished i am short
I am giving up on this long.. will exit near 1.0400


i am wondering if all this is due to employment data tomorrow
  • #39,107
  • Jan 18, 2012 8:31am Jan 18, 2012 8:31am
So, bullish or bearish ?


Quoting bjdk
im not a wave expert
but here is what i see
we are in the making of yellow wave3
in the big red wave 3
dont takeit on its only my vue
Patience is magic
  • #39,108
  • Jan 18, 2012 8:34am Jan 18, 2012 8:34am
Quoting ragnakore
I am giving up on this long.. will exit near 1.0400


i am wondering if all this is due to employment data tomorrow
It seems it's having a hard time breaking 1.0360. This is the third attempt since it reached 1.0450.

Staying on the sidelines for this. Not keen on shorting this pair due to the negative swap.
Buy! Buy! Sell! Sell! Just make sure you have proper MM!
  • #39,109
  • Jan 18, 2012 8:43am Jan 18, 2012 8:43am
Quoting rafiqhidayat
It seems it's having a hard time breaking 1.0360. This is the third attempt since it reached 1.0450.

Staying on the sidelines for this. Not keen on shorting this pair due to the negative swap.
HI,

-tive swap will occur at 3pm est is it. Till that time we can short. So why you are not. Just learning. Any comments will be great.

Thanks.
KC.
  • #39,110
  • Jan 18, 2012 8:53am Jan 18, 2012 8:53am
Quoting KCV
HI,

-tive swap will occur at 3pm est is it. Till that time we can short. So why you are not. Just learning. Any comments will be great.

Thanks.
KC.
Trade History

Longs - 260 trades - 3425.7 pips
Shorts - 259 trades - 2901.3 pips

The difference in pips is only 500 pips (assuming USD 1 per pip), this should come up to USD 500 difference in profit between my long and short trades.

However, the actual difference is USD 1200, which means in order to make the same amount of profit in shorts, I am required to work harder compared to taking the longs.

That's the long story. The short story is, generally I have bad luck in selecting my short positions, my trade duration for my longs are generally shorter compared to shorts.

So in summary, I prefer taking long positions for this pair. I used to trade USDCHF (when I want to take short AUDUSD positions - due to correlation). However, it doesn't correlate as well compared to last year. So, I'm trying out EURUSD (which worked well, but now it doesn't correlate that close with AUDUSD)...

Additional Note: Tomorrow is the triple rate day i.e. you get hit with 3x the swap rate. So no AUDUSD shorts for me.
Buy! Buy! Sell! Sell! Just make sure you have proper MM!
  • #39,111
  • Jan 18, 2012 9:02am Jan 18, 2012 9:02am
Thank you so much.

How do u know tomorrow is 3X. Where can I find those info's

KC.

Quoting rafiqhidayat
Trade History

Longs - 260 trades - 3425.7 pips
Shorts - 259 trades - 2901.3 pips

The difference in pips is only 500 pips (assuming USD 1 per pip), this should come up to USD 500 difference in profit between my long and short trades.

However, the actual difference is USD 1200, which means in order to make the same amount of profit in shorts, I am required to work harder compared to taking the longs.

That's the long story. The short story is, generally I have bad luck in selecting my short positions, my trade duration for my longs are generally...
  • #39,112
  • Jan 18, 2012 9:05am Jan 18, 2012 9:05am
Quoting KCV
Thank you so much.

How do u know tomorrow is 3X. Where can I find those info's

KC.
Thursday at 3X swap rate day (at least for my broker). I was told before that they charge you on Thursday for Saturday and Sunday (hence 3x) - might not be the right explanation.

After I was informed as such, I checked my swap rates after it changes to a new day, and it was confirmed that my broker charges 3X swap rates on Thursdays.
Buy! Buy! Sell! Sell! Just make sure you have proper MM!
  • #39,113
  • Jan 18, 2012 10:09am Jan 18, 2012 10:09am
Possible inverted head and shoulders on the 1min
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #39,114
  • Jan 18, 2012 10:10am Jan 18, 2012 10:10am
Quoting ibotman
Possible inverted head and shoulders on the 1min
are you trading using this TF... just curious
  • #39,115
  • Jan 18, 2012 10:16am Jan 18, 2012 10:16am
Quoting izzas
are you trading using this TF... just curious
TF?
  • #39,116
  • Jan 18, 2012 10:20am Jan 18, 2012 10:20am
Quoting ibotman
TF?
Yes TF= time frame
  • #39,117
  • Jan 18, 2012 10:35am Jan 18, 2012 10:35am
Quoting redteamgo
limit was filled overnight. exit planned at target or rejection at 0450
closed this earlier for a measly 30 combined pips

oh well. once again.. risk on/off, not so much on the aussie.
Any prices quoted are futures
  • #39,118
  • Jan 18, 2012 11:00am Jan 18, 2012 11:00am
Quoting izzas
Yes TF= time frame
Yes, for reversals using AO divergence.

I use the 5M for patterns and reversal confirmation using the ADX and envelopes. The 1M not good for patterns (like H&S)...that one crapped out like I thought it might.
  • #39,119
  • Jan 18, 2012 11:16am Jan 18, 2012 11:16am
fuck
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: au.jpg Size: 96 KB
90% of traders use TA, indicators and prediction
  • #39,120
  • Jan 18, 2012 11:32am Jan 18, 2012 11:32am
I have a question out of curiosity: why do some people here seem so keen to sell AUD? I have not been trading for too long but the few friends I have in brokerages and IBs all told me that in trading currencies it's most advantageous to trade in the direction of the carry. On charts, it is quite clear that any slightly bigger drops in this pair is bought rather aggressively very quickly. Unless one is absolutely certain that the position can be exited before the end of the day, otherwise, holding a bit longer term shorts can be very expensive, I did it before with total stupidity, it worked out roughly £400-500 per month on 1 lot. A hedgie I know only shorts AUD with options and otherwise always tries to look to long AUD/JPY. It just seems so much hardwork and painful to short this pair, albeit when it goes it goes very fast. But how certain can we be that it will drop fast and time it right?
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