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  • #1,441
  • Jan 10, 2012 9:33am Jan 10, 2012 9:33am
Massive influx of risk trading today. And the us$ was pummelled from all sides - even the dying Euro beat the dollar up.

Even with such impulsive moves I still believe in the ultimate us$ strength. We are above daily ATRs for a lot of currencies against the dollar and things look a bit overstretched. Right out of the gates the Dow fell malikg all the currencies retrace a bit. will the $strength return today? A traders question.

Buying a small position in usdcad. We are at support and daily dynamics are overstretched...Stoch on the 4h have turned up and crossed. Will 1.0150 hold?

Olu
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If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
  • #1,442
  • Jan 10, 2012 8:09pm Jan 10, 2012 8:09pm
Find uploaded a 4h chart of the dollar index. The dollar had a pummeling yesterday but it held the support line marked on the chart. Right now I notice a bounce off the said support line supported by a gap up. This is encouraging for the us$ and whether there will be follow through remains to be seen.
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If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
  • #1,443
  • Jan 11, 2012 11:24am Jan 11, 2012 11:24am
I have uploaded a weekly and monthly chart of the above pair. Both charts show that we in an entrenched downtrend. What will rescue this pair? As we speak (type!) we are sitting on support or just broken below it. It is carry positive too! So holding for long is not a problem.

It is a fundamental play on the relative strengths of the australian economy and the British ecomomy. As I live in the UK and know the UK economy is pants there is no guessing which way I am going.

Normally when the stockmarket is going up this pair goes down but lately it has just been down down and down irrespective of the stock market movements.

There you have it. Do your own d/d...

Olu
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If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
  • #1,444
  • Jan 11, 2012 7:03pm Jan 11, 2012 7:03pm
Quoting golferfx
I like your idea's Olu.

Do you like the dollar strength trade for next year !

Here is another idea I've been chewing on. If we break support we could see a nice 1900 pip trade.

We'll have to be ready.



humble golfer



Update on Eur/Aud.

We did break the floor at around 1.2900.

Currently 1.2333.

Looking for 1.1000...much longer term.




golfer
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  • #1,445
  • Jan 11, 2012 7:27pm Jan 11, 2012 7:27pm
Quoting golferfx
Update on Eur/Aud.

We did break the floor at around 1.2900.

Currently 1.2333.

Looking for 1.1000...much longer term.




golfer
Yes we did talk about this pair a while ago. Look at where it is now. Well done on the trade.

Olu
If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
  • #1,446
  • Jan 12, 2012 10:41am Jan 12, 2012 10:41am
Strange one today...

Stock market is going down
usdcad is going up
eurusd is going up
a little respite in the eurcad, euraud


When in doubt... stay out

Olu
If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
  • #1,447
  • Edited 3:59pm Jan 15, 2012 3:49pm | Edited 3:59pm
A brand new trading week is starting tonight. By the way the stock market was impressive on friday. Despite the credit downgrade of european countries it initially sold off heavily and then recovered. The comment/explanation was that the markets had priced that information in and therefore took it all in its strides as if it were old information.

I have uploaded a daily chart of the FTSE100. We have been ranging for 9 days or so as shown on the chart. Price also attempted to break an uptrend line which subsequently held and price rebounded. Where will price go? It is anyone's guess but the Stochastics is hinting downwards. The German Dax put in a bearish engulfing candle pattern which is bearish. On the whole the stock market is struggling to go up. That doesnt mean the struggle cannot continue though. But I think the next significant move is to the downside.

About the FTSE100 it is better not to do anything until the range is broken.

Good luck this week...

Olu
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If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
  • #1,448
  • Jan 15, 2012 5:49pm Jan 15, 2012 5:49pm
Find uploaed a daily chart of xauusd. Previously we were looking for a 123 breakdown on the weekly chart targeting the 1000 area. However it rebounded and we have now put an inverted hammer that touched the 100ema before reversing. Today we seem to have started lower. Some facts about gold prices:
Gold price is generally inversly related to the price of the us$. As the us$ index is on the up I believe that gold prices will go lower.
If there is a hint of a delay or the possibility of QE3,4,5,6 etc not happening gold will also tank.
If we have deflation and not inflation gold will tank

Stochastics have turned.
Price has reversed from the 100sma
We have a shooting star candle on the daily supported by a bearish candle
Price trying to revert to the recent trend
Today we have started lower...

Do your own due dilligence...

Olu
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If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
  • #1,449
  • Jan 15, 2012 6:24pm Jan 15, 2012 6:24pm
As described in an earlier post I have taken a small long in the above pair. Price is at support. It has put in 2 dojis at support area and today we have broken above the high of the doji. First target is the breakdown area at 1.4990 area and possibly onwards.
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If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
  • #1,450
  • Jan 16, 2012 9:20am Jan 16, 2012 9:20am
hi Olu and all other fx friends, happy new year and all the best.

Looks like GBPAUD didn't manage to take 1.4900 and is going down right towards 1.4800

I have a very nice setup for a potential 500 pips trade, see attached daily chart
CADCHF is challenging a major resistance @ 0.9360 and is also being supported by an ascending TL from SEP 2011 low.
I'll be looking to go long on that pair if we have a daily close above 0.9360, if it happens next barrier will be at 0.9900 which is 500+ pips away.

Let me know your thoughts

cheers
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  • #1,451
  • Jan 16, 2012 11:58am Jan 16, 2012 11:58am
Quoting Heliosdz
hi Olu and all other fx friends, happy new year and all the best.

Looks like GBPAUD didn't manage to take 1.4900 and is going down right towards 1.4800

I have a very nice setup for a potential 500 pips trade, see attached daily chart
CADCHF is challenging a major resistance @ 0.9360 and is also being supported by an ascending TL from SEP 2011 low.
I'll be looking to go long on that pair if we have a daily close above 0.9360, if it happens next barrier will be at 0.9900 which is 500+ pips away.

Let me know your thoughts

cheers
Thanks for your post. This trade warms my 'cockles'. We are already over 9360. But as you said it is best to wait for a close. A bit overbought though but when did this matter to this manipulated market. by the way this trade will be on the right side of the SNB should they decide to do something. Then you'll have the 500pips in one day Will put up more of my view tonight but it looks good.

Shame about the gbpaud. It did go over 4900 but couldn't stay there. Was looking for some momentum push towards 5100 abd beyond because of the deeply oversold nature and the inability to break below. Good thing it was a small position.

Olu
If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
  • #1,452
  • Jan 16, 2012 6:19pm Jan 16, 2012 6:19pm
Quoting Olu
As described in an earlier post I have taken a small long in the above pair. Price is at support. It has put in 2 dojis at support area and today we have broken above the high of the doji. First target is the breakdown area at 1.4990 area and possibly onwards.

Closed trade for a loss...Loss was moderated a bit by some retracement.

Risk is on in the stock market which did not favour the trade.
If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
  • #1,453
  • Jan 17, 2012 7:28am Jan 17, 2012 7:28am
Please find uploaded a monthly chart of the FTSE100 cash. I thought I would let you in to some of my thinking that also affects my bias and hence my trading.
It appears we have a tradable pattern appearing here. It is a head and shoulder pattern. By the way it hasn't confirmed yet but this thought is making me keep an eye out for a top around here for the right shoulder to form.

I wrote on this thread or on the blog a few days ago that the FTSE was in a range and I would not trade this instrument until the range is broken one way or another. We broke out of the range to the upside by 2 pips but we are back in it now. A break below the low of the range will definitely hint that the H&S scenario is starting to play out.

By the way if we break out to the upside above today's high so far I will probably go with it as well. We are traders...



Olu
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If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
  • #1,454
  • Jan 18, 2012 8:33am Jan 18, 2012 8:33am
Will it break out today?

Olu
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If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
  • #1,455
  • Jan 18, 2012 7:00pm Jan 18, 2012 7:00pm
Prez. Ahmadinejad...tear down those walls...or reactors...or caves ...or call girls!!!!


Let's really plan ahead this time.



golferfx
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  • #1,456
  • Jan 18, 2012 7:41pm Jan 18, 2012 7:41pm
Quoting golferfx
Prez. Ahmadinejad...tear down those walls...or reactors...or caves ...or call girls!!!!


Let's really plan ahead this time.



golferfx
Thanks for the chart Golfer. I see you have used line charts to reduce the clutter and get just the simple price action.

if this matter is settled amicably the commodity will tank...

We are waiting

Olu
If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
  • #1,457
  • Jan 19, 2012 7:59am Jan 19, 2012 7:59am
Breakdown from triangle. Even though I am bullish on the us dollar this is a bearish development. If we dont reverse from here we will be visiting the next parallel line below the current support area.

Olu
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Click to Enlarge Name: usdcad-daily-19012012-1355uk.JPG Size: 85 KB
If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
  • #1,458
  • Jan 20, 2012 7:44am Jan 20, 2012 7:44am
Of course the other scenario can happen too and in that case we are going to the upper 1700s at first.

Olu
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If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
  • #1,459
  • Edited Jan 23, 2012 5:07am Jan 22, 2012 7:28pm | Edited Jan 23, 2012 5:07am
Brand new week everyone. Wish you all loads of pips.

I have uploaded a chart of eurcad for your consideration. This pair is in a strong downtrend. We have had a bounce and the last major candle was a doji. I am looking for the downtrend to continue. We gapped down this morning but expect this gap to be filled in no time. If there is no neal progress on europe then we will go down on this pair. Stochastics are no longer oversold. If the doji's high is taken out then all bets are off. In fact it might be a reason to buy...

Olu
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If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
  • #1,460
  • Edited 7:07am Jan 23, 2012 6:52am | Edited 7:07am
Today is a day of reckoning. Price has touched the trendline (depending on the thickness of your line

Otherwise we have some more laboured upside which can be treacherous but profitable as well. If it wants to break down we cant close over 1685.
Olu
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