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Where can I learn more about Price Action like those in James16 charts? 9 replies

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james16 Chart Thread

  • #105,981
  • Jan 17, 2012 10:48am Jan 17, 2012 10:48am
Hi All,

Posting charts for first time in this thread.

Took three trades. All good.

BUT WAS I LUCKY OR DID I DO IT RIGHT?
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  • #105,982
  • Jan 17, 2012 10:51am Jan 17, 2012 10:51am
Quoting zamfir
Hi All,

Posting charts for first time in this thread.

Took three trades. All good.

BUT WAS I LUCKY OR DID I DO IT RIGHT?
Hey Zamfir

Welcome to the thread

Looks good, just be careful of a few things. Watch taking too many trades at once. They are usually going to be correlated and can lead to compounding your losses fast(just as your wins too). Just something to be aware and track. These look like all trades were taken about the same time.

I put some comments on the nzd/usd chart for you but they apply to all 3 charts too. Let me know if it is confusing after viewing my chart and video

Welcome again
Mike
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  • #105,983
  • Jan 17, 2012 11:16am Jan 17, 2012 11:16am
Just been playing with fibs and noticed that on many charts some of the big PPZ are fib levels from the first ever moves the pairs made back at their beginnings.
The attached chart has a small illustration..... green are from 1990-1992, red come from 1996-2000 and orange are from 2000-2007.

The power of numbers eh
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  • #105,984
  • Jan 17, 2012 11:24am Jan 17, 2012 11:24am
Quoting mbqb11
Hey Zamfir

Welcome to the thread

Looks good, just be careful of a few things. Watch taking too many trades at once. They are usually going to be correlated and can lead to compounding your losses fast(just as your wins too). Just something to be aware and track. These look like all trades were taken about the same time.

I put some comments on the nzd/usd chart for you but they apply to all 3 charts too. Let me know if it is confusing after viewing my chart and video

Welcome again
Mike
Thanks Mike. Will get back after more studying...
  • #105,985
  • Jan 17, 2012 11:41am Jan 17, 2012 11:41am
I have just come across this thread, and already have Jim's business plan rules tacked up next to my computer. I have recently sworn off indicators, after (I guess predictably) results that have left me wanting and have begun the journey of adopting a more pure price action methodology.

I'm only a few pages into the thread, but I have a couple of questions pertaining to the double high lower close setup.

1- Does the "lower close" mean that the price closes lower than than the previous bar, or simply below the high?

2- For a breakout of the DBHLC setup, is it recommended we set a pending order or are we waiting for a third bar to close above the price of the double high?

For example; the USDCAD appears to have broken a double low that was formed 1/11-1/12 on the daily chart. Would we enter now, or wait until the open of a new daily bar?

I am excited to be here, and thank you for the help.
Where I've been, Ive been. Where I'm going, I'll go. I'm here now.
  • #105,986
  • Jan 17, 2012 11:43am Jan 17, 2012 11:43am
What i understand from Traffic and space is , if there is less traffic to left of PA , we have a good chance that price will move and if there is more traffic, even though a trade might work, but not might move as much.

One possible reason being , not many orders set at that level by big boys. Hence the price has room to move.

At traffic or congestion, lots of buy/sell orders . Hence price find it hard to move and gets boxed. Once the buyer or sellers overtake , then we see price moving sharply, which is nothing but a breakout.
  • #105,987
  • Jan 17, 2012 12:43pm Jan 17, 2012 12:43pm
Quoting zamfir
What i understand from Traffic and space is , if there is less traffic to left of PA , we have a good chance that price will move and if there is more traffic, even though a trade might work, but not might move as much.

One possible reason being , not many orders set at that level by big boys. Hence the price has room to move.

At traffic or congestion, lots of buy/sell orders . Hence price find it hard to move and gets boxed. Once the buyer or sellers overtake , then we see price moving sharply, which is nothing but a breakout.
Hey Z

Yep this is the basics of it. Now that doesn't mean that a trade MUST have space, or can't be in traffic. In fact I take trades all the time in both. But it's a crucial piece to understanding the bigger picture(or story) of your trade as well as logically how to manage ones risk and exit

Best
Mike
  • #105,988
  • Jan 17, 2012 12:45pm Jan 17, 2012 12:45pm
good trade but u can see how resistance is being respected. should it close above this resistance, the next level should be around 1.07540 area.
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  • #105,989
  • Jan 17, 2012 12:49pm Jan 17, 2012 12:49pm
Quoting DropThumb
I have just come across this thread, and already have Jim's business plan rules tacked up next to my computer. I have recently sworn off indicators, after (I guess predictably) results that have left me wanting and have begun the journey of adopting a more pure price action methodology.

I'm only a few pages into the thread, but I have a couple of questions pertaining to the double high lower close setup.

1- Does the "lower close" mean that the price closes lower than than the previous bar, or simply below the high?

2- For a breakout...
Hey DT

Welcome to the thread. Price is where its at. Then you will be able to use any indicators you choose even more effectively as you will understand what they represent better as well(like MACD for divergence for example).

As for your questions

1. For a lower close price must close completely lower then the previous bars low/high. For a DBHLC that means price closes under the previous bars low. For a DBLHC price closes above the previous bars high.

2. All price bars are not valid until the high/low breaks. So for a DBLHC a break of the high of the 2 bars that make up the setup would validate the setup. Thus for this reason many of us(including myself) will buy a break of the high. THis means the next bar(or however many after you are willing to wait) must simply cross the high to be considered valid. Of course there are other alternatives(retrace, entry on the close, entry perhaps on a close above as you said as well). That takes some fine tuning and practice to decide what might work best for you

Hope this helps and again we're glad to have another new face pop in and ask questions
Mike
  • #105,990
  • Jan 17, 2012 12:59pm Jan 17, 2012 12:59pm
german tui on daily. break of the 5 eur today.
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meine augen sind die sterne
  • #105,991
  • Jan 17, 2012 1:42pm Jan 17, 2012 1:42pm
AUD/USD is forming a nice bearish pinbar right at BNR and resistance of 1.04.

What do you guys think?

http://img856.imageshack.us/img856/4386/audusda.png

Uploaded with ImageShack.us
  • #105,992
  • Jan 17, 2012 2:02pm Jan 17, 2012 2:02pm
Quoting mojo6911
AUD/USD is forming a nice bearish pinbar right at BNR and resistance of 1.04.

What do you guys think?

http://img856.imageshack.us/img856/4386/audusda.png

Uploaded with ImageShack.us
is this on daily timeframe? what broker do you use for feed?
  • #105,993
  • Jan 17, 2012 2:17pm Jan 17, 2012 2:17pm
I was going to ask the same question. I posted a chart a few posts up on this same pair. Granted it's showing some weakness at the resistance level but my candlestick looks nothing like his. Maybe his isn't a daily chart. But i think his is a daily because it kinda looks like mine. To answer his question though, it's great to try and catch those major reversals but everything points bullish on this pair. I traded it long for 74 pips today and that's only because I took my profits right at the resistance level. I probably left at least another 70+ pips on the table.
Quoting R3ta
is this on daily timeframe? what broker do you use for feed?
  • #105,994
  • Jan 17, 2012 2:18pm Jan 17, 2012 2:18pm
Daily on Oanda.
  • #105,995
  • Jan 17, 2012 2:18pm Jan 17, 2012 2:18pm
Quoting R3ta
is this on daily timeframe? what broker do you use for feed?
That would be Oanda's Daily feed. Their bar closes at midnight NY time. This will make their daily feed look very different then most(who use closer to the 5pm close)


Best
Mike
  • #105,996
  • Jan 17, 2012 2:24pm Jan 17, 2012 2:24pm
Quoting mbqb11
That would be Oanda's Daily feed. Their bar closes at midnight NY time. This will make their daily feed look very different then most(who use closer to the 5pm close)


Best
Mike
What should I do in this case? Are the signals not reliable, since they are quite a bit different from everyone else?
  • #105,997
  • Jan 17, 2012 2:30pm Jan 17, 2012 2:30pm
Quoting mojo6911
What should I do in this case? Are the signals not reliable, since they are quite a bit different from everyone else?
Hey Mojo

Their is no real right answer here. Forex is a non centralized market thus their is no start and close time. So it comes back to beliefs. I think that at the end of the day it evens out and that ultimately that won't be a deciding factor in someone from being profitable or not. That's because the bar itself is such a small portion of what we focus on as traders. My personal belief is to use a 5pm close. This is sort of the unofficial close in my eyes. Also the sessions post NY are the two slowest and least liquid sessions. That to me is the "start" of the new session(day). Most think similarly as a whole. But I won't go so far to say one has to use an exact time. After all what we see on our chart is historical price and time.

Hope that helps
Mike
  • #105,998
  • Jan 17, 2012 2:55pm Jan 17, 2012 2:55pm
Agreed, on my feed its not a PB and even if it was for me it's trading into too much traffic. I'd prefer to be trading away from all that, i.e. long.
Again i've left on those ancient fibs and it's really interesting to see how these provide levels for sooooo many of these bar high/low throughout history of the pair up to today.

The reds are a fib plotted from 1990 to 2000 - a 10 year fib! but look how at the PB at swing low this affects things combined with the orange line (2008).... the new fib plotted serves to provide even more levels at which price pivots or is affected by S/R. The pinks are 2010-2011 and the light blue is recent (Jul 2011 to Sep 2011)

Sorry if anyone finds this a bit odd or old hat but to me this has been something of an eye opener in terms of finding confluence and levels to watch for respect.

In fact our current triangle (i've drawn it weird here) is bordered by red lines - 12 year old fibs which started their origin over 20 years ago.
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  • #105,999
  • Jan 17, 2012 2:59pm Jan 17, 2012 2:59pm
Quoting mojo6911
What should I do in this case? Are the signals not reliable, since they are quite a bit different from everyone else?
why use a different feed when you can set your chart like most of traders out there? trading is a psychological "game": what most traders see should be the same for you. imho using a more common chart feed would improve your chance of getting right inputs.
  • #106,000
  • Jan 17, 2012 3:13pm Jan 17, 2012 3:13pm
Jaroo and Mike et al mentioned the story of price (and the importance) a few pages back.... this story is progressing nicely.... hoping it continues and ends happily ever after

Chapter 1.
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Chapter 2.
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Many more chapters to unfold no doubt... hoping it makes it where i want.... we'll see.
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