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  • #1,781
  • Jan 17, 2012 4:47am Jan 17, 2012 4:47am
Quoting hxtrader
See my post #1769. however, I'm not just taking 30 pips on each trade but have 4 TP levels between 50 - 200 pips.
Thanks, HX. I read that post, not sure how I missed that info!
Luck occurs when preparation meets with opportunity.
  • #1,782
  • Jan 17, 2012 11:50am Jan 17, 2012 11:50am
Quoting mer071898
Open up the indicator in MetaEditor and make sure you are using the latest version of the indicator.
Hi Mer,

firstly (and I've probably said it before) what a great piece of work you three have done on this system, my hat goes of to you,SQ and especially FXH). I just checked my meta editor and my version of the indicator says v 1.8, which is confusing the hell out of me because it appears to have all the same functions as the latest version (I downloaded mine from post 1 last week). Could this just be that SQ didn't amend the version number when he last updated it? if you see my charts in previous posts you will see that I have the arrows, fib lines on the right, option to have all fibs showing or just for the latest CZ etc... so i'm sure mine is current.

Also, it's great to have you around, I spent quite a lot of time with the LBO though admit I like not being tied to a specific time of day for a BO.

Regards

HXT
  • #1,783
  • Edited 12:38pm Jan 17, 2012 12:08pm | Edited 12:38pm
Hey folks,

Thank you for the previuos comments, but please understand that its Forexhard who deserves the plaudits for developing the system. Here is another little Gem I have been looking at (wow! it appears to work very well with Silver). Again it's on a longer timeframe (1 hr) so trades don't come across often but you can see it's potential, and Mer if your looking at this also check out how many fib levels this breaks through.

I can sense my kids and my wife missing me already (of course I've read through the whole thread)

Mer, if I may, I have a couple of questions about some trade management tools I'm looking for. I figure you might be the guy who can point me in the right direction.

I forgot to mention, this set up delivered a 75/25 win/loss ratio when I manually tested it. However there were only 12 trades over the 100 days but it's looking very good for banking a lot of pips.

Regards

HXT
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Silver 2.jpg Size: 160 KB
  • #1,784
  • Jan 18, 2012 8:12pm Jan 18, 2012 8:12pm
HX, I think you have really hit on something here. I've spent many hours backtesting this and other strategies. On this one I've seen some good results, but nothing yet quite like this. I've never tested this pair, and never M30, either.

I'm not a coder, but I'm ok with Excel. So I am creating Excel spreadsheets to automate my backtesting. I want to be able to enter in the price data, i.e., date, time, box boundaries, etc. Then use variables for the spread, TP levels, SL levels, etc. when I change a variable, the calculations flow through to show how many pips profit result. Most of it is complete, I just need a better way to input besides going through the chart and making each price entry manually.

I ran a backtest on the GBPCHF, same time period, TF, and indi settings you mentioned in your post a couple of days ago. I want to be as mechanical as possible. My results are below, and they make all this work worthwhile.

This is just my first try with these settings and trade rules. I think they can be fine tuned for better profits.

I have not used the EA yet because I've only recently figured out how to get them to work. I will try it now, maybe it can speed up my backtesting.

There may be typos in my data, so please don't bet the farm on any of this!

Please let me know if anyone has any comments.

Setup:
Pair: GBPCHF
TF: M30
Time period: mid-October to present, about 3 months
Using Squalou's indicator v1.13
Settings: Length:20, Range:30, autorange:no, buffer:5, minbarsclosed:3

Trade Rules:
Take first trade signal only on each CZ
Entry: immediately on open of fourth candle after third closes outside CZ
Exit1: Close half position at TP2 (Fib level 2, as marked by the indi), move 2nd half to BE
Exit2: Close 2nd half at TP4
Exception rule: If entry signal is beyond TP2, move both trades to BE at +20, close both at TP4 or +20BE
SL: buffer line on opposite side of box (I am sure this can be reduced, based on visual observation)

Results:
Total trades taken: 24
Wins: 17
Losses: 7
Total positive pips: +1035
Total negative pips: -698
Net pips: +337

Screenshot shows the details.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: pic1.jpg Size: 220 KB
Luck occurs when preparation meets with opportunity.
  • #1,785
  • Jan 18, 2012 9:14pm Jan 18, 2012 9:14pm
Things are finally beginning to hot up in here!
To improve is to change. To perfect, is to change often.
  • #1,786
  • Jan 18, 2012 10:46pm Jan 18, 2012 10:46pm
Hi fxhard, I came to this post after you posted in mer's Synergy CRS forum! The stairstep breakouts looks so promising that I had to finish reading the whole thread before getting started on it. Looking forward to posting my charts over time. Thanks to you and mer and everyone else for sharing.
  • #1,787
  • Jan 19, 2012 3:35am Jan 19, 2012 3:35am
New box just formed on GC m30.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Luck occurs when preparation meets with opportunity.
  • #1,788
  • Jan 19, 2012 3:37am Jan 19, 2012 3:37am
Hi,

I love Excel as an analysis tool, well I would do, I train accountants for a living. For CBP/CHF I use 4 fixed TP's 50 to 200 pips rather than the fib levels.

Right now got a buy signal on silver, it's the first time I've traded silver and a note of caution, the position size calculator I used told me .1 lots which is what I placed. However I immediately realised it should have calculated .01 lots and for a couple of minutes I had 20% riding on it instead of 2%, not what i need before my first coffee of the morning. Anyway fortunately the buy soon netted me a few pips so i was able to quickly reduce this to .01 lots and bank some profit too. I wont be making that mistake again.

Right now I'm showing CZ's on GBP/JPY, GBP/CHF & GBP/USD, with an imminent signal on GBP/CHF (which is my highest rated win/loss ratio) things moving fast so havent got time to do charts at the minute will let the market calm down first.

By the way it's great to see you popped in today Forexhard. I'm hoping your seeing CZ's on the same pairs as me as then I know i'm doing something right.

HXT
Attached Image
  • #1,789
  • Jan 19, 2012 3:58am Jan 19, 2012 3:58am
Quoting AlienFrog
New box just formed on GC m30.
I'm a wee bit cautious about this potential breakout so i don't think I'll be putting the full 2% on this. This is only because the January low is only 30-40 pips below this level, plus this is the 4th CZ around this price and the current CZ is overlapping last weeks. My gut feeling is that the probability of a significant move downwards isn't as great as a return to the CZ formed at the beginning of January.
  • #1,790
  • Jan 19, 2012 4:11am Jan 19, 2012 4:11am
Quoting hxtrader
Hi,

I love Excel as an analysis tool, well I would do, I train accountants for a living. For CBP/CHF I use 4 fixed TP's 50 to 200 pips rather than the fib levels.
Fixed TPs are easier to use in Excel, too. Fibs are different on each trade. The only way to use them would be to refer to a sheet with price data. Lots of difficult formulas. I'm not that good at Excel.
Luck occurs when preparation meets with opportunity.
  • #1,791
  • Jan 19, 2012 4:21am Jan 19, 2012 4:21am
Quoting hxtrader
I'm a wee bit cautious about this potential breakout so i don't think I'll be putting the full 2% on this. This is only because the January low is only 30-40 pips below this level, plus this is the 4th CZ around this price and the current CZ is overlapping last weeks. My gut feeling is that the probability of a significant move downwards isn't as great as a return to the CZ formed at the beginning of January.
This area has been tested 5-6 times over the last 6 weeks, within about 30 pips. It may be weakening. I'm going to go with the odds of the setup at this point.

This is why we wait for 3 bars to close, right?

Third close may come in 10 minutes!
Luck occurs when preparation meets with opportunity.
  • #1,792
  • Jan 19, 2012 4:37am Jan 19, 2012 4:37am
Quoting AlienFrog
This area has been tested 5-6 times over the last 6 weeks, within about 30 pips. It may be weakening. I'm going to go with the odds of the setup at this point.

This is why we wait for 3 bars to close, right?

Third close may come in 10 minutes!
Yup, I like the three bars on this pair with this TF.

One thing to mention is that there is a big chunk of US economic data due out at 1.30 GMT today, I dont think there are going to be any significant moves before the release and if there is my feeling is that it will be just market 'spooking'. I dont use any volume indicators but I bet anyone that does will be seeing it drop off till the US session opens. When the data is released there will probably also be a spike one way or another so keep an eye on the PA. GBP/CHF is highly associated with risk appetite and the data release will either cause capital to flow in or out of the swissie, it's probably why my Silver trade is at a virtual standstill.

Forexhard, I hope I'm not going 'off topic' by talking about the economic data release but it does affect the price action we will see today. Let me know if it's not welcome.
  • #1,793
  • Jan 19, 2012 4:44am Jan 19, 2012 4:44am
Quoting hxtrader
Yup, I like the three bars on this pair with this TF.

One thing to mention is that there is a big chunk of US economic data due out at 1.30 GMT today...
You are right to point out the news warning, especially Thursday mornings (EST). i always watch the trades I am in at news time because the spread can spike and take out your SL. I've been in positive pips when this has happened and it's worse than annoying.
Luck occurs when preparation meets with opportunity.
  • #1,794
  • Jan 19, 2012 4:53am Jan 19, 2012 4:53am
Hello.
I have some question for you, what software you used for testing strategies, and how long you tested?
  • #1,795
  • Edited 9:46am Jan 19, 2012 5:23am | Edited 9:46am
Got the go ahead to trade (I didn't take it), and now the trade signal has disappeared when I'd stopped mucking about in paint and attaching. Wierd and I did refresh the screen by flicking to another TF. could just be becasue the PA was so close to the buffer line.

Anyway, I was going to explain why i didn't take it. I like to have 'breathing' space between CZ's. If you look back a week or two there were three CZ's which formed (at seperate times) within a range of about 50-60 pips, the last time PA was in this zone it took 2 days to chew it's way through it. It's obviously resistance of some calibre on the 15 min TF so I didn't take the trade. If it breaks down though I will take it as there is more 'breathing' space to bank some pips.

I'm trying to remember from Forexhards posts if this was something he looked out for but after reading 1400 or so posts in a week it's sometimes hard to recall.

edit - by the way ignore the yellow box, I still like to draw them manually from time to time and usually have one floating around on a chart that I can pull over the PA.

Arghh - didn't mention which pair it was - GBP/USD
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPUSD 1.jpg Size: 112 KB
  • #1,796
  • Jan 19, 2012 5:53am Jan 19, 2012 5:53am
Quoting geo
Hello.
I have some question for you, what software you used for testing strategies, and how long you tested?
Hi geo,

I didn't use software, I went through the charts and applied my rules noting the price at which the strategy would indicate to place a trade and put the results into excel which did the number crunching for me, well once I had built the spreadsheet and inserted the formula's needed. I don't use an EA (though I am on the lookout for a good trade management EA once I have placed the trade manually using market execution) so haven't done it using the strategy tester in MT4.
  • #1,797
  • Jan 19, 2012 6:48am Jan 19, 2012 6:48am
could be some action on GJ soon, probably going to be plenty of action on all pairs after US open though.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gbpjpy 1.gif Size: 38 KB
  • #1,798
  • Jan 19, 2012 7:23am Jan 19, 2012 7:23am
Quoting hxtrader
Got the go ahead to trade (I didn't take it), and now the trade signal has disappeared when I'd stopped mucking about in paint and attaching. Wierd and I did refresh the screen by flicking to another TF. could just be becasue the PA was so close to the buffer line.

Anyway, I was going to explain why i didn't take it. I like to have 'breathing' space between CZ's. If you look back a week or two there were three CZ's which formed (at seperate times) within a range of about 50-60 pips, the last time PA was in this zone it took 2 days to chew it's...
I find that sometimes the indi redraws or deletes objects randomly when I resize or move the chart. I have to close/open MT4 to fix it. Not a big problem though.

That's good wisdom about having some air between CZ levels. Thanks for sharing your experience!
Luck occurs when preparation meets with opportunity.
  • #1,799
  • Jan 19, 2012 8:29am Jan 19, 2012 8:29am
Quoting hxtrader
Hi geo,

I didn't use software, I went through the charts and applied my rules noting the price at which the strategy would indicate to place a trade and put the results into excel which did the number crunching for me, well once I had built the spreadsheet and inserted the formula's needed. I don't use an EA (though I am on the lookout for a good trade management EA once I have placed the trade manually using market execution) so haven't done it using the strategy tester in MT4.
Why don't you use backtesting tools like Forex Tester (http://www.forextester.com/go.htm) or similar ones?
I used to play with charts and Excel like you before but now i see that it was a big waste of time because you have to do a lot of "stupid work" instead of concentrating on your trading strategy...
in backtesters you can simulate the market based on historical quots, you will see these quots coming like in a real trading terminal but you are able to control the time (speed up time or slow it down or even rewind) believe me, it saves a lot of time!
And you do not have to program an EA for that, you can simply open/close trades on historical quots.
Think twice before going live, even if you own the best trading strategy...
  • #1,800
  • Jan 19, 2012 10:03am Jan 19, 2012 10:03am
Quoting FxMaestro
Why don't you use backtesting tools like Forex Tester (http://www.forextester.com/go.htm) or similar ones?
I used to play with charts and Excel like you before but now i see that it was a big waste of time because you have to do a lot of "stupid work" instead of concentrating on your trading strategy...
in backtesters you can simulate the market based on historical quots, you will see these quots coming like in a real trading terminal but you are able to control the time (speed up time or slow it down or even rewind) believe me,...
I just chose to use excel because I use it all the time and love it's analysis capability, you dont just get results for pips or profit and win loss ratio's, but you can do stuff like set up conditions and ask questions like, 'if my 1st TP is hit what is the probability that it will hit my second TP' and that kind of thing. Or you can ask it 'if price deviates from a set point by a certain amount, what is the probability that it will return to the set point?'

or 'if there are less than 40 bars in my CZ, what is the probability that I will achieve 100 pips?' Info which is handy to determine which trades to bet the farm on.

Having said this though I fancy having a play about with forex tester, i bet its quicker and easier to get the basic info out that i need.
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