AUD/USD

A break in favor of the USD would be up?

1.0245 might serve as a point for a quick scalp, S1 and bullish divergence on m5

but don't count on it, apparently it's risk off this asian session, EU can't even break above 1.2660 when last week it can't even close below that number

Com' on mate. You must be joking.

today change *from previous close (gap is counted):

http://img16.imageshack.us/img16/1898/34128905.png

market seem to start dumping AUD...
today worst currency so far...
with US Bank Holiday i think reversal chance is slim

added short at 1.0276 for 10 pips scalp

edit: sl hit

SL moved to BE

I am thinking short too, as the price bounce from today's low 1.0253 till now has been slow and looks like it is going to retest today's high at 1.0300
and possibly go lower afterwards...to your target...

Since you moved your SL , what if it stops you out, would you reenter again ?

With so many small traders in retail getting squeezed short I wouldn't be surprised to have 1.0375 retested today with the US having a day off, perfect time for weak stop hunting.

I agree tht there are alot of retail shorts riding on AUDUSD.
Retails are often on the wrong side of the ride.

stopped out at BE, will stay on the sidelines for now....

Cynthia Koons
A DOW JONES COLUMN

Don't bet that a slowdown in the global economy will drag the Australian dollar down like it did in 2008.

Back then, Australia's currency fell off a cliff as the resources boom that fueled it sputtered.

But Australia's commodity sector is more firmly dug-in these days. In liquefied-natural-gas alone, more than $140 billion worth of projects are already under construction, compared with $15 billion in 2008. Significant committed investment in infrastructure to support massive coal and iron ore operations can't be quickly reversed either.

Record inbound merger-and-acquisition deals last year--worth $65.7 billion--also support the Australian currency as acquirers buy Aussie dollars to fund their investments. This year might not hit another record, but strong interest in resources should support continued dealmaking.

There are risks, especially slowing growth in China and India. But a hard-landing for Asia seems less likely than it did a few months ago. A more muted downturn won't pull the ground from underneath Australia's currency.

Further interest rate cuts from Australia's central bank are possible--dark clouds persist over retail and manufacturing. That could see yield-starved investors look elsewhere. Still, the Reserve Bank of Australia cut the cash rate twice late last year, with more or less no lasting impact on the exchange rate.

A seize-up in global credit markets would also weigh on the Aussie. When the markets shut in 2008, Australian banks were forced to sell local currency and buy greenbacks to meet short-term funding needs in U.S. dollars, Royal Bank of Canada strategist Michael Turner says. But the Australian banks, which have some of the highest credit ratings in the world, are less reliant on short-term funding than they were four years ago.

The Australian dollar has traded in a fairly tight range around parity with its U.S. counterpart for most of the past 12 months, compared with an average of around 75 cents for the past three decades. A deep shock to the global economy that decimates commodity prices could see a return to historical norms. A strong recovery in the U.S. that leads to higher interest rates there could be a game-changer too.

Absent such dramatic events though, the dollar's more likely to stay closer to parity this year than it is to fall back into its old ways.

EURUSD---> Short every rally!
AUDUSD---> Long every dip!

That's all thats been going on since the start of december!

Seems like it.. in fact, AUD is the new EUR - bullet proof... until someone invents AP bullets..

im waiting on the sideline for better signals.. USDX isnt strong. so no way shorting AUDUSD.

PS! There is French debt auction today. Watch out.
Check not only on the rates but also the supply/demand.
In Spain, it was a smashing success (Lowered rates + huge demand);
Last Friday Italy, it was a slight failure (lowered rates + not so good demand).
What will we see today in France will dictate the move of EURUSD and AUDUSD as well (like it did last Friday).

1h and 4h

hello,
just to say...... im long EU.

the "sell every rally" thing is true but look at PA not at what you think will happen!

good luck to me and everyone

whats your price target on the EU? ive been long on the eurgbp riding the retrace

actually i have no target in EU.
first problem is 2680 actually 23% fibo of last move down.

if goes cleared will decide where target. maybe something around 1.28 area or 2760

EUR/USD sell on rallies
EUR/GBP sell on rallies
AUD/USD buy on dips
imvho...

When is the French auction today?