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AUD/USD

  • #38,881
  • Jan 13, 2012 9:38am Jan 13, 2012 9:38am
price just bounced off that rising trendline... wont load up on my shorts till it closes below it hopefully next week
  • #38,882
  • Jan 13, 2012 9:48am Jan 13, 2012 9:48am
Quoting taxe91
price just bounced off that rising trendline... wont load up on my shorts till it closes below it hopefully next week
Be careful.

Downgrade hasnt come out officially yet.
It was France News reporting of downgrade. Basically echoing the rumor.

I am parking a Sell above 1.03 with SL 1.038 in case there was no downgrade.
  • #38,883
  • Jan 13, 2012 10:13am Jan 13, 2012 10:13am
Quoting ragnakore
Be careful.

Downgrade hasnt come out officially yet.
It was France News reporting of downgrade. Basically echoing the rumor.

I am parking a Sell above 1.03 with SL 1.038 in case there was no downgrade.
Reviewing CICR and AUDX (H4 chart below), I am not comfortable/confident that I should be shorting AUD just yet.

AUDX is showing bounce off support lines (Yellow and Red lines) suggesting AUD is very supported. The drop we saw just a few hours ago was mainly USD strength due mainly to EUR weakness. AUD didnt weakened and therefore, short AUDUSD short wont work beautifully just yet.
Attached Image
  • #38,884
  • Jan 13, 2012 10:19am Jan 13, 2012 10:19am
Last of my trades was just closed at TP. A beautiful week for me, +160 pips as targeted, all from AU. End of week for me. Hope everyone enjoy some pips too this week. Happy weekend people
The tone of your words reflects the quality and result of your trading ;-)
  • #38,885
  • Jan 13, 2012 10:46am Jan 13, 2012 10:46am
Quoting ragnakore
Be careful.

Downgrade hasnt come out officially yet.
It was France News reporting of downgrade. Basically echoing the rumor.

I am parking a Sell above 1.03 with SL 1.038 in case there was no downgrade.
What is your target?

CICR is pointing to more downward movement beyond the trendline it bounced off of?

So euro downgrades would shoot AUDUSD up?
  • #38,886
  • Jan 13, 2012 11:43am Jan 13, 2012 11:43am
This thread is a little quieter but I like it. I want to note that today is the best day I have ever had in a single session. Shorts on nearly all euro pairs at or around the peak from yesterday (aud, gbp, usd, cad, jpy) performed magnificently especially usd and aud and i am out of all except my long term eur/usd and part of my eur/cad. hope everyone did awesome today
Any prices quoted are futures
  • #38,887
  • Jan 13, 2012 12:16pm Jan 13, 2012 12:16pm
What will price do if downgrades rumor is true and announced? Or denied?
  • #38,888
  • Jan 13, 2012 12:40pm Jan 13, 2012 12:40pm
Quoting ibotman
What will price do if downgrades rumor is true and announced? Or denied?
downgrades are already priced in

if the downgrades feel worse than anticipated, expect another dip. or the opposite if they are better than expected.
Any prices quoted are futures
  • #38,889
  • Jan 13, 2012 2:20pm Jan 13, 2012 2:20pm
It's been on an tear for the last 10 years.

It's basically better than gold at this point.
There's alot of big money wanting to get in on Aussie, It has so many support levels.

It's the worlds best currency. That and the Yen.

you can never really ever find it cheap. Big money grabs it up quickly.
  • #38,890
  • Edited 3:25pm Jan 13, 2012 3:02pm | Edited 3:25pm
Quoting JTattheRanch
It's been on an tear for the last 10 years.

It's basically better than gold at this point.
There's alot of big money wanting to get in on Aussie, It has so many support levels.

It's the worlds best currency. That and the Yen.

you can never really ever find it cheap. Big money grabs it up quickly.
As much as I am a bear AUD bias for most of my trading years since 2006, sad to say, I agree this currency will never go down... I've seen the light this 2012.

Why? USD is just plain OVERBOUGHT!
AUD has one thing behind it: China! Megagiant China. Shorting AUD is shorting China. Sure Chinese (Shanghai) stock market has dropped and keep dropping since 2008. Guess what, AUDUSD has risen beyond 2008, these two have decoupled (not correlated). AUD is correlated with commodity for which BRICS consume.

ADD: (I'd like to point out that China is not Shanghai Stock market. Inspite the fact that Shanghai Stock Market dropping and keeps dropping - China surged into World's #2 Economy implying the fact that China is not Shanghai Stock Market)


Like I said earlier, I am not gonna short AUD just yet! Not yet. It is strong. Check AUD index. it is resilient.
  • #38,891
  • Jan 13, 2012 3:21pm Jan 13, 2012 3:21pm
Take a look again at AUDUSD.
RISE! RISE!
I bet we could retest 1.0380 again or the Daily 200MA next week
  • #38,892
  • Jan 13, 2012 5:48pm Jan 13, 2012 5:48pm
Notice that we failed to test last week's high.

Last week we had a H4 bearish divergence, from a high of 1.0385 we dropped and then retested a similar high before falling, this week a similar setup occurred.

My initial analysis to sell at 1.0330 was a break of the M30 double top neckline, but 1.0327 would be a more accurate number, my profit target was 1.0235 which is the uptrend's fib 62 retracement. With it being well respected, I would expect a test of 1.04 where big sell orders are placed.

However, with the big names like france and austria losing their AAA status, i'll be once again hesistant to long. Better to short rallies than get trapped with a long.
  • #38,893
  • Jan 13, 2012 9:29pm Jan 13, 2012 9:29pm
Next week, buy every dip. Keep shorting EUR/AUD and GBP/AUD, fresh new historic lows are in front of us.
Don't get mad, get even!
  • #38,894
  • Jan 13, 2012 10:16pm Jan 13, 2012 10:16pm
The pessimistic euro bets corresponded with a 10% increase in bets that the dollar will appreciate, a net total of $17 billion or 44,587 contracts.

Large traders were more optimistic about the Australian dollar, boosting their bets by 14% to a net $5.5 billion or 53,526 contracts.

CFTC
eFXnews

http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...1&d=1326512116

http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...1&d=1326512116

euro - cable : http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...67#post5294667
  • #38,895
  • Jan 14, 2012 1:01pm Jan 14, 2012 1:01pm
Major and minor trend on 12h & 4h = UP
but
the strong resistance 1.0387 is ahead of rising aud
personally consider the breakout.

12h

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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4h

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: audusd 4h.gif Size: 26 KB
I used to be somebody , now I am somebody else
  • #38,896
  • Jan 14, 2012 4:07pm Jan 14, 2012 4:07pm
aussie has managed to hold its own against a strong US dollar so far this year, but weakness in the Australian economy may push the pair downwards.

Technical levels, from top to bottom: 1.05, 1.0450, 1.04, 1.0336, 1.02, 1.00, and 0.9890.
  • #38,897
  • Jan 14, 2012 8:43pm Jan 14, 2012 8:43pm
short scenario
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #38,898
  • Jan 15, 2012 12:49pm Jan 15, 2012 12:49pm
hello,
i was giving a look at major trend and weekly chart....
i will search short opportunities in the cyrcled area near 1.0400 -1.0460.

reversal pattern in faster TF could mean a possible move some pips down.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: au.jpg Size: 87 KB
90% of traders use TA, indicators and prediction
  • #38,899
  • Jan 15, 2012 1:53pm Jan 15, 2012 1:53pm
A fresh new week incoming. Market will open in 2 hours. This coming week, my target is to gain +200 pips from 5 selective trades. Positive results start from positive expectation
The tone of your words reflects the quality and result of your trading ;-)
  • #38,900
  • Jan 15, 2012 4:12pm Jan 15, 2012 4:12pm
Quoting isaacyassar
A fresh new week incoming. Market will open in 2 hours. This coming week, my target is to gain +200 pips from 5 selective trades. Positive results start from positive expectation
well said!
90% of traders use TA, indicators and prediction
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